List of stocks I check each morning and intraday for scalp/swing.

I don't see how the AMZN results don't cause a rotation into stocks without significant retail material cost exposure. Into manufacturers of tech, cloud stocks, and inelastic demand stocks whose products are not dependent on their product sales price. Low PE service provider stocks should have great value too.

GOOGL
MSFT
FB
Should be primary benefactors as they are immune from retail price pressure

AAPL
NVDA
AMD
MU

VLO
GS
Morgan Stanley

I think some mutual fund managers aren't going to like have 10% exposure to AMZN after these last consolidation of 9+ months and then a significant earnings/revenue/guidance Miss.

Friday Macros

Risk Off as Amazon Down 250 Points...Treasuries Higher M/E...Inflation

The market is in a mild "risk off" move overnight... It started with Amazon and their "cloud competition" outlook and the fact that people are physically out shopping again... Meanwhile the Chinese equity market situation is fluid with regulators giving no guidance that their managing of their companies is continuing to contradict the shareholder owners... The SEC is now concerned enough that they have suspended new Chinese IPO's until they understand the situation better... This led to Chinese stocks down from a little under 1 in the Mainland, and about 1.35% in Hong Kong... Japan was down just under 2%... That was more likely Covid related.

Month end should keep a bid under treasuries today... 10 year overnight is at its highs at the moment with the yield of 1.237... About 4 below the 200 day moving average of 1.278... We do not think it goes through 1.22, which has been good resistance, but with the debt ceiling suspension happening over the weekend, we could get a FTQ trade...Yellen will have to bring out her tap dancing shoes to manage the debt ceiling until Congress gets it act together... We see no real leadership in DC right now to get it done... But we know they will get there as it is embarrassing to start vacation recess before this gets done... Infrastructure can wait until the fall, as the US economy is still on steroids... But the ceiling has to be addressed now... Again, even if "default" starts to creep into the language, this usually helps treasuries rather than hurt them... But we have seen downgrades before, S+P being the example.

Equities... Amazon is the culprit for the overnight downdraft... The Nasdaq has been hit the hardest,,, S+P hit its overnight session low about 4 am and has been grinding back and has made up about 14 points of the 42 it was down... Now down 28. It is month end and we do not see significant re-allocations from stocks to bonds... Meanwhile we have seen two reports this morning about the massive amount of money that is making its way into the stock market.. The FT sees net inflows into US listed ETF's running at 505 billion so far this year, already topping the total for 2020 already and we have 5 months left in the year. In the latest weekly numbers, according to Merrill, investors allocated 23.2 billion to equities while bonds got 12.7 billion of inflows... We got a kick out of Mike Hartnett quote "Central banks are keeping global interest rates at 5000 year lows".. And there is no fear on Wall Street that rates will rise anytime soon... So there is your Fed put coupled with way too much money chasing too little product...

Inflation is out of control... Today we get the Fed's favored inflation gauges. The PCE deflator probably will come in around 4%, and the core measure is seen accelerating to 3.7%.. Hmmm... Last I looked, these numbers, along with CPI and PPI, are all well above the 2% number the Fed is targeting... But we have seen nothing but lip service from the Fed chair... Bullard will change that today... Meanwhile the Bloomberg commodity index has set new multi year highs given the rise in soft commodities... Inflation is real and we are about to give you another one of our classic anecdotal stories...


Bullard the Hawk versus Brainard the Dove, will be speaking today... Bullard shortly and Brainard tonight at the Aspen institute... Expect a chop today because it is month end... But it is still a summer Friday so we do not expect an ugly close... But as we are finishing this equities are heading lower since we started....

OEag11 said:

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gougler08 said:

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Has Fidelity always restricted buying options with same day expirations?

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They started back in April unless you have over a 1mil account value. Complete crap.

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The whole "accredited investor" deal has always irked me. The idea that people with more money are more knowledgeable is laughable.

Also, this your reminder that the first chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which enforces laws restricting insider trading, was Joe Kennedy...JFK's dad who made all his money through insider trading before it was illegal.

/populist rant over

Scimitar said:

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OEag11 said:

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gougler08 said:

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Has Fidelity always restricted buying options with same day expirations?

---

They started back in April unless you have over a 1mil account value. Complete crap.

---

The whole "accredited investor" deal has always irked me. The idea that people with more money are more knowledgeable is laughable.

Also, this your reminder that the first chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which enforces laws restricting insider trading, was Joe Kennedy...JFK's dad who made all his money through insider trading before it was illegal.

/populist rant over

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Also serves as a good reminder that insider trading is still not illegal for members of Congress