i think the recovery into close was the tell. I think we tripped a lot of stop as was the theme this morning in this thread.FJ43 said:It wouldn't surprise me at all to close the week at or near new ATH. Fed meetings the next 2 days may change that of course. Tomorrow I would think will be sporty.Ragoo said:
Dear Mr. Market. You flushed retail today. Now reward those of us who held during the sell off. GREEN THE REST OF THE WEEK.
Hope I am on the right side of the bet when JP speaks or minutes are released.
As austinAG90 said earlier today next weeks meetings may be the bigger deal for direction.
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With you and man I was a victim in the stops. Mine were SR levels breached vs. loaded stops but still took myself out of a number of trades.Ragoo said:i think the recovery into close was the tell. I think we tripped a lot of stop as was the theme this morning in this thread.FJ43 said:It wouldn't surprise me at all to close the week at or near new ATH. Fed meetings the next 2 days may change that of course. Tomorrow I would think will be sporty.Ragoo said:
Dear Mr. Market. You flushed retail today. Now reward those of us who held during the sell off. GREEN THE REST OF THE WEEK.
Hope I am on the right side of the bet when JP speaks or minutes are released.
As austinAG90 said earlier today next weeks meetings may be the bigger deal for direction.
Only to have them recover within range again. I did buy back on several.
withholding most judgement until after the fed.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I'm back sorta. Been totally disconnected for 2 weeks.FJ43 said:
Not stocks related but it just hit me on the tu SEC deal...
Can you imagine the red azz the left behinds in their conference will have for them this coming season. Horns down will be a normal occurrence.
During that 2 week span, my ABBV Covered Calls were exercised 4 days before expiration. In 30+ years with Fidelity, that is the first time I have ever been exercised prior to expiration date, on anything. Other stuff happened, but moving on,.... I missed the plunge. That was a buying opp.
"Horns down will be a normal occurrence." - Give'em a horns down with the left hand and a unicorn with the right hand on live TV. That is what I want for a normal occurrence. (hide the children from viewing) A whiskey bottle sailing past my head in Austin in 1986 .... that's how I personally remember the queers. I want nothing to do with them. Have some Nebraska acquaintances that had very similar experiences in Austin 1999, but they got bloody. Kansas Coach Mark Mangino spoke truth about t.u. and got the ax cause he went against the almighty burnt orange conference office. I want to see Leach/MSSt go wild on horns in Austin - no holds barred. I'm not worried about Jimbo, he'll keep us in the win column. If an A&M official withheld this info to keep the tu/OU process alive, I'm thinking pink slip.
WWR, I bought more yesterday at $3.87.
Focus. Focus. Focus.
I think this is talking about our up trend here.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:I'm back sorta. Been totally disconnected for 2 weeks.FJ43 said:
Not stocks related but it just hit me on the tu SEC deal...
Can you imagine the red azz the left behinds in their conference will have for them this coming season. Horns down will be a normal occurrence.
During that 2 week span, my ABBV Covered Calls were exercised 4 days before expiration. In 30+ years with Fidelity, that is the first time I have ever been exercised prior to expiration date, on anything. Other stuff happened, but moving on,.... I missed the plunge. That was a buying opp.
"Horns down will be a normal occurrence." - Give'em a horns down with the left hand and a unicorn with the right hand on live TV. That is what I want for a normal occurrence. (hide the children from viewing) A whiskey bottle sailing past my head in Austin in 1986 .... that's how I personally remember the queers. I want nothing to do with them. Have some Nebraska acquaintances that had very similar experiences in Austin 1999, but they got bloody. Kansas Coach Mark Mangino spoke truth about t.u. and got the ax cause he went against the almighty burnt orange conference office. I want to see Leach/MSSt go wild on horns in Austin - no holds barred. I'm not worried about Jimbo, he'll keep us in the win column. If an A&M official withheld this info to keep the tu/OU process alive, I'm thinking pink slip.
WWR, I bought more yesterday at $3.87.
Focus. Focus. Focus.
Welcome back! Have been wondering where you've been.
Interesting times market wise. The next few weeks IMO will be interesting. Gut feeling is all.
As for the sips I think they will be in for a rude awakening in some venues. On and off the field. They should be welcomed with open arms in Baton Rouge for a night game. Culturally they won't fit in most places. Horns down will be on T-shirt's across the south. On the field their depth will be their demise for a few years. Add in relentless SEC defenses and the tears thread may spin page count over for a while.
Welcome back!
Love the trade recaps. Those are great!
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Thanks FJ. Went to TX to work on family estate. Worked like a slave who doesn't qualify for reparations. Double digit temps and high humidity just like I remember. Left one day before triple digits hit. I think I lost 8 lbs one day and drank a lake to hydrate. Bug bites on the hands with finger swelling, poison oak on face, hands and arms, took a sting from something on the lip at the nose bridge - thought I was at the dentist with a novacaine shot and it was dang painful at first until I lost feeling. Corn crop should yield an all-time record for us >125bu/ac. Incredible for dryland production in our area. Once in a life time event and I had to go down to see it. Land values are crazy high and I believe we'll be sellers soon. Before May 1st, 2020 you could buy farmland $2,750 to $3,250/ac. From after May 1st 2020, it's $5,000 to $15,000/ac. If we have a buyer at $10,000 to $15,000 - it's palms out selling (...commodity trading hand signal reference there). Got a farmer acquaintance who just sold 105 acres north of Temple for $11,000/ac. Everything was green from SD to TX. Kansas Flint Hills were emerald green for July - ranchers will do well there this year. I'll stop ramblin' here..
That's enlightening, but it pales in comparison to your post about trading = freedom, IMO. That made me say wow. I'm not easily impressed, but it was simple and to the point. You either make it your sig, or I'll steal it for mine.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I think this is talking about our up trend here.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Thanks FJ. Went to TX to work on family estate. Worked like a slave who doesn't qualify for reparations. Double digit temps and high humidity just like I remember. Left one day before triple digits hit. I think I lost 8 lbs one day and drank a lake to hydrate. Bug bites on the hands with finger swelling, poison oak on face, hands and arms, took a sting from something on the lip at the nose bridge - thought I was at the dentist with a novacaine shot and it was dang painful at first until I lost feeling. Corn crop should yield an all-time record for us >125bu/ac. Incredible for dryland production in our area. Once in a life time event and I had to go down to see it. Land values are crazy high and I believe we'll be sellers soon. Before May 1st, 2020 you could buy farmland $2,750 to $3,250/ac. From after May 1st 2020, it's $5,000 to $15,000/ac. If we have a buyer at $10,000 to $15,000 - it's palms out selling (...commodity trading hand signal reference there). Got a farmer acquaintance who just sold 105 acres north of Temple for $11,000/ac. Everything was green from SD to TX. Kansas Flint Hills were emerald green for July - ranchers will do well there this year. I'll stop ramblin' here..
My dad farms and he has been talking about how great the crop has been looking if only he can get it out of the field before it sprouts. We've heard south Texas milo crop has been poor due to sprouts and they were all putting tracks on their machines just to get in the fields. My in laws own a feed mill and have told me this is the highest price on milo they have ever paid. China bought up all the supply.
FJ43 said:
Not stocks related but it just hit me on the tu SEC deal...
Can you imagine the red azz the left behinds in their conference will have for them this coming season. Horns down will be a normal occurrence.
From one of the left behinds..yes, the hate is strong and I wish them misery and failure. No need for me to explain it here though. Aggies have always understood. The rest of us just got red-pilled.
Thoughts on QS? On the 1 month looks like a descending wedge. Had a period last week/Monday of consolidation and broke down with the market.
Happy now?
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
P/C .. pic.twitter.com/yGKdk9Dh8P
— JE$US (@WallStJesus) July 27, 2021
I can see you all loading up your puts. Y'all be careful guys and gals. I'm taking a good break over the next month or so and staying flat and not getting into new trades unless I have some free time to day trade but unlikely. I'm sticking with my conviction longer term holds for now although JD and NIO are getting a bit scary with the China stuff. Will this time be different, or will they bounce back?
Heading to Texas for most of August to get away from work and likely the market too. I'll probably still check in from time to time but will be very busy.
There's also some good news coming out of the UK this morning about opening up international travel to vaccinated people from US and EU. Not a done deal yet, but this could spark the markets and curb the delta covid fears... UK 7 straight days of plummeting covid cases in the face of full re-open on 7/19. Some of these science folk predicting 100-200k cases a day by early/mid August gonna look real smart if this trend keeps up...
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Fully-jabbed from EU and US could avoid quarantine when they arrive in Englandhttps://t.co/Mc9GWgN2Qq
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) July 28, 2021
White House COVID team has been in discussions about imposing lockdowns again. Dem and RINO governors on board, per WH official
— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) July 28, 2021
Mornun!
More or less flat...but VIX just feels like it has a date with 20+ today again.
Today may be good trading in the morning followed by hours of boring trading until the Fed at 2EST.
Then we shall see but seldom boring following the Fed to close the day.
My guess we have the normal spike in a direction then resume continuation up and close the week at ATH....again. Just a guess.
Now to figure of what the play is for a quick trade when JP breathes out a few words....
Trade wisely!
You're not allowed to check out for a month without checking in. Kidding of course. Hope you have a great time seeing family and regrouping.59 South said:P/C .. pic.twitter.com/yGKdk9Dh8P
— JE$US (@WallStJesus) July 27, 2021
I can see you all loading up your puts. Y'all be careful guys and gals. I'm taking a good break over the next month or so and staying flat and not getting into new trades unless I have some free time to day trade but unlikely. I'm sticking with my conviction longer term holds for now although JD and NIO are getting a bit scary with the China stuff. Will this time be different, or will they bounce back?
Heading to Texas for most of August to get away from work and likely the market too. I'll probably still check in from time to time but will be very busy.
There's also some good news coming out of the UK this morning about opening up international travel to vaccinated people from US and EU. Not a done deal yet, but this could spark the markets and curb the delta covid fears... UK 7 straight days of plummeting covid cases in the face of full re-open on 7/19. Some of these science folk predicting 100-200k cases a day by early/mid August gonna look real smart if this trend keeps up...
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/Fully-jabbed from EU and US could avoid quarantine when they arrive in Englandhttps://t.co/Mc9GWgN2Qq
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) July 28, 2021
Are you saying I don't need the IBKR hot keys to eject from all positions? Funny how those are the only 3 they automatically and brightly highlight for you. They sure make it easy to exit in one click and go flat.
That's some funny stuff there. Kudos to IBKR.
Who knows man! But this new covid narrative coming from y'all's side of the pond has some piss poor timing for my trip. Abbott better hold his ground!
Maybe one of us will test hot tomorrow, and we'll end up having to cancel and enjoy our new found full freedom here while you guys slip back into the abyss! Obviously not rooting for that outcome [end rant]
Who knows man! But this new covid narrative coming from y'all's side of the pond has some piss poor timing for my trip. Abbott better hold his ground!
Maybe one of us will test hot tomorrow, and we'll end up having to cancel and enjoy our new found full freedom here while you guys slip back into the abyss! Obviously not rooting for that outcome [end rant]
FUTU
We mentioned this one yesterday.
Let's see if it gets its bounce today. Could be a play back to $120...ish.
NIO above $41 if it confirms that could be a play.
Ferris Wheel Allstar
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AG
I want to get in on this one, but have been reading up on the Chinese stocks that makes me nervous. I might go small especially since its up 10% alreadyFJ43 said:
FUTU
We mentioned this one yesterday.
Let's see if it gets its bounce today. Could be a play back to $120...ish.
Maybe keep an eye on 111.62 to confirm (yesterday's high). Then the 200EMA is a little higher are 112.50ish range. Could very well see some early movement below the premarket run up but I think those levels will be important.Ferris Wheel Allstar said:I want to get in on this one, but have been reading up on the Chinese stocks that makes me nervous. I might go small especially since its up 10% alreadyFJ43 said:
FUTU
We mentioned this one yesterday.
Let's see if it gets its bounce today. Could be a play back to $120...ish.
If shares and it loses $99 again that would be my personal stop. Just me anyway as that would probably signal to me a dead cat bounce.
59 South said:P/C .. pic.twitter.com/yGKdk9Dh8P
— JE$US (@WallStJesus) July 27, 2021
I can see you all loading up your puts. Y'all be careful guys and gals. I'm taking a good break over the next month or so and staying flat and not getting into new trades unless I have some free time to day trade but unlikely. I'm sticking with my conviction longer term holds for now although JD and NIO are getting a bit scary with the China stuff. Will this time be different, or will they bounce back?
Heading to Texas for most of August to get away from work and likely the market too. I'll probably still check in from time to time but will be very busy.
There's also some good news coming out of the UK this morning about opening up international travel to vaccinated people from US and EU. Not a done deal yet, but this could spark the markets and curb the delta covid fears... UK 7 straight days of plummeting covid cases in the face of full re-open on 7/19. Some of these science folk predicting 100-200k cases a day by early/mid August gonna look real smart if this trend keeps up...
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
UK has been following logic way too much lately, glad to see it working out and I do hope that people are finally realizing that we can't control nature nearly as much as we think we can with lockdowns and mask mandates. Protect the vulnerable that want to be protected and let the rest of us live life
QQQ and IWM have trended up pretty strongly so far
IWM has been in a 5 month Darvas Box between more or less 215-230ish range. Happens to be at the lower end now.gougler08 said:
QQQ and IWM have trended up pretty strongly so far
Qs overall trend has been solid. IMO I think if the big boys (mega caps) such as FAANG hold their high levels or earnings then may be ok. If those fade then I'm guessing we have some pullback into he lower trend ranges or 50EMA level...ish. Just a guess.
Not sure of this original source but this was posted on a feed I subscribe to...
"An exit from stimulus" yeah that's a very healthy and sane way to look at it
McInnis 03 said:
Have had a trade go my way today and thought I'd share what I was watching for and how I executed.....because now I'm left with some August monthly calls that are risk-free.
Anatomy of a trade: $BA - 2min chart shown
1) at the open, let things play out a bit, had my watchlist of 15 stocks open in order of percentage green to red, I watch for red's going green to find strength
2) started to see BA creep up from red, to barely red, went to 2min chart
3) Saw BA was against the daily pivot (purple line, I use "Woodies' daily pivots which calculate pivots with a heavier weight on recent price close)
4) Noticed BA broke daily pivot with authority (blue circle), at this point I'm willing to go long on a day scalp expecting to get to R1 so I bought 210c's at $2.38.
5) Rode these weeklies up to Resistance 1 (maroon line) where we pulled back to the opening range high (ORH), this doesn't worry me, this is where a lot of traders enter the play long on the pullback to ORH.
6) Continued to sell some of these calls as price continued to work it's way up, paying myself the whole way.
7) trading at 217 the 210c's were trading just above $7 so almost intrinsic value. At this point I can hold or find a way to sell out and up. I sold these 210c's for this week and bought 235c's for Aug 20 for really good credits.
8) Now my runners are Aug20 235c's at no-risk, if BA runs from here to then, we'll be just fine. If not, the trade is over anyways.
Notes:
If at bullet 3 BA reverses at the daily pivot, I don't play this trade.
If at bullet 5 BA re-enters the balance area deep I think about cutting the trade or lessening the risk significantly on a weekly play like this
On bullet 7, I simply wanted more time on this trade than 3 days.....and for the price of the options out that far, it made sense for me to take a credit and hold awhile. Letting the profits work for themselves.
Final Note:
I know everyone has an indicator or method they love.....I'm really getting into these Woodie's Pivots after ignoring them long ago.....Take a look at what happens to price at precisely R1 and again at R2. These poitns are where price reverses, almost to the penny. Now also realize these pivots are drawn at the bell of the open......so now you see where the strength of these comes into play. I'm having great success using them as strength/resistance lines and when/where to trim/add. Just another indicator to think about that isn't necessarily a laggard.
YAAAASSSSS! Leave runners kids!#!
You said woodie.
Don't know for sure this is his quote but man I loved watching Vikings.
FJ43
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Posts:
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You've had some great plays the last couple weeks! Good job!
Wednesday Macros
Powell Clearly the Focal Point..He Will Maintain Optionality... China Stable
The focal point of today is clearly Jay Powell, who is the leader of the dovish pack of the Fed... While we think he is outnumbered by the Kaplans, Bostic, Bullard, and many others, he has the bully pulpit... Powell clearly wants his optionality given all the world turmoil and uncertainty, from Delta variant, to supply chain issues, and to inflation... This is an elegant way to say, he will kick the can down the road, to make the big decisions after his big speech at Jackson Hole, and more likely at the September Fed meeting...
What will Powell say and what will he emphasize... Hear is how we see it...
1) Hawkish... He can mention tapering but as he gets closer to making a decision, the more the markets will view this as hawkish... But it is necessary, but given the recent uptick in Covid, he probably will be very careful... Meanwhile our old colleague Scott Skrym , tells us that " the liquidity the Fed is providing through QE is just circulating back to the Fed via RRP"... "The more the QE continues, the more the repo and overall Treasury market will be distorted"
2) Hawkish... Inflation has clearly moved higher from the last Fed meeting.. If Powell tries to emphasize transitory too strongly the markets will push back in disbelief.. Even the White House is fearing more inflation and is worried as their infrastructure program stalls because of overheating the economy and continued high inflation...
3) Dovish... Powell has a window here and we think he will take it... The recent uptick in Delta cases in many parts of the country has caused the CDC to bring back indoor mask mandates in many areas... This gives him cover to maintain his optionality by saying "we are not there yet"... And nothing in the employment spectrum , where he counts 8 million still not back to the work force, would dispute that... And yes there are 9 million job openings, but the CDC mandate is going to slow these down... So this is where Powell is going...
Markets... Treasuries overnight have given back some of their gains from yesterday... While treasuries did rally yesterday they did not break out of the previous days range... This is neutral at best... 200 day moving average is still 1.27 while the 10 year is 1.26... So it is a magnet... We have seen some reduction of longs according to the flow data we follow... Volumes have been weak... The 1.22-1.30 range we expected to hold into the Fed meeting has held... Now we expect to see that range challenged after the Fed meeting... The big players have been in Asia recently, where lots of money plays the trend... Our "guess" is that a dovish Fed will steepen the yield curve... And by 10 am tomorrow, if Powell does what we think, long yields will rise .. 1.36 and then 1.42... 1.50 to 1.75 is too early and too far over our skis for now.
Equities... As we like to say, the least dirty shirt in the laundry.. Chinese equities stabilized overnight on some talk from Chinese media that they are not trying to hurt the stock market... But 1.5 trillion dollars of losses after 3 days, that is what they have done... The Chinese financial advisors warned the politicians that they were about to put the Hong Kong markets into bear territory, so we have stabilization for now, but for how long?..Expect to see the Chinese "national team, step in to stabilize. That aside, earnings last night and in the past few weeks have been stellar in the US... And we saw a nice bounceback yesterday afternoon in small caps and all the indices.. Again, there is plenty of risk in equities, but with the Fed remaining dovish, even in the face of 8.5% GDP tomorrow and 5.4% YOY CPI, one has to play the hand they are dealt... So stay with it for now... But expect some volatility between this afternoon and the close of Friday.
Powell Clearly the Focal Point..He Will Maintain Optionality... China Stable
The focal point of today is clearly Jay Powell, who is the leader of the dovish pack of the Fed... While we think he is outnumbered by the Kaplans, Bostic, Bullard, and many others, he has the bully pulpit... Powell clearly wants his optionality given all the world turmoil and uncertainty, from Delta variant, to supply chain issues, and to inflation... This is an elegant way to say, he will kick the can down the road, to make the big decisions after his big speech at Jackson Hole, and more likely at the September Fed meeting...
What will Powell say and what will he emphasize... Hear is how we see it...
1) Hawkish... He can mention tapering but as he gets closer to making a decision, the more the markets will view this as hawkish... But it is necessary, but given the recent uptick in Covid, he probably will be very careful... Meanwhile our old colleague Scott Skrym , tells us that " the liquidity the Fed is providing through QE is just circulating back to the Fed via RRP"... "The more the QE continues, the more the repo and overall Treasury market will be distorted"
2) Hawkish... Inflation has clearly moved higher from the last Fed meeting.. If Powell tries to emphasize transitory too strongly the markets will push back in disbelief.. Even the White House is fearing more inflation and is worried as their infrastructure program stalls because of overheating the economy and continued high inflation...
3) Dovish... Powell has a window here and we think he will take it... The recent uptick in Delta cases in many parts of the country has caused the CDC to bring back indoor mask mandates in many areas... This gives him cover to maintain his optionality by saying "we are not there yet"... And nothing in the employment spectrum , where he counts 8 million still not back to the work force, would dispute that... And yes there are 9 million job openings, but the CDC mandate is going to slow these down... So this is where Powell is going...
Markets... Treasuries overnight have given back some of their gains from yesterday... While treasuries did rally yesterday they did not break out of the previous days range... This is neutral at best... 200 day moving average is still 1.27 while the 10 year is 1.26... So it is a magnet... We have seen some reduction of longs according to the flow data we follow... Volumes have been weak... The 1.22-1.30 range we expected to hold into the Fed meeting has held... Now we expect to see that range challenged after the Fed meeting... The big players have been in Asia recently, where lots of money plays the trend... Our "guess" is that a dovish Fed will steepen the yield curve... And by 10 am tomorrow, if Powell does what we think, long yields will rise .. 1.36 and then 1.42... 1.50 to 1.75 is too early and too far over our skis for now.
Equities... As we like to say, the least dirty shirt in the laundry.. Chinese equities stabilized overnight on some talk from Chinese media that they are not trying to hurt the stock market... But 1.5 trillion dollars of losses after 3 days, that is what they have done... The Chinese financial advisors warned the politicians that they were about to put the Hong Kong markets into bear territory, so we have stabilization for now, but for how long?..Expect to see the Chinese "national team, step in to stabilize. That aside, earnings last night and in the past few weeks have been stellar in the US... And we saw a nice bounceback yesterday afternoon in small caps and all the indices.. Again, there is plenty of risk in equities, but with the Fed remaining dovish, even in the face of 8.5% GDP tomorrow and 5.4% YOY CPI, one has to play the hand they are dealt... So stay with it for now... But expect some volatility between this afternoon and the close of Friday.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Happy now?
The guillotine is getting sharper, my head gonna get whacked soon lol
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