I got pinged.

Yes, we are undergoing a $17B acquisition that hit its one year anniversary and a lot of changes are happening.

I still try to trade 2 hours a day but right now it's maybe 2 days a week. It's mainly around my SPY and VIX scalps but I simply don't have time to chart at night. It will get better by Fall.

Another thing, I made a comment on another forum and people call me by my name there, and someone didn't like my candor, and tried to dox me. I know this because my HR called me about it. Nothing happened and my HR laughed it off, but That was a signal to post less for a bit.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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I got pinged.

Yes, we are undergoing a $17B acquisition that hit its one year anniversary and a lot of changes are happening.

I still try to trade 2 hours a day but right now it's maybe 2 days a week. It's mainly around my SPY and VIX scalps but I simply don't have time to chart at night. It will get better by Fall.

Another thing, I made a comment on another forum and people call me by my name there, and someone didn't like my candor, and tried to dox me. I know this because my HR called me about it. Nothing happened and my HR laughed it off, but That was a signal to post less for a bit.

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Holy crap man. People are creepy.

Prognightmare said:

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How's momma doing?

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Morning. Thanks for thinking of her. She was in better spirits yesterday and is recovering well from her surgery. This morning she will have a heart catheter to see what is going on there. Should know more later today hopefully.

Good Morning Gents!

Green this morning...again.

VIX down in the 17s so looking more bullish continuation overall.



Think we may range a bit on SPY and 436 may be a magnet, but as always will trade what is in front of me. If history repeats likely a green to red day but nothing out of sorts.

Watching for Qs to lead.

Will try and post a play or two today if possible. Lots of potential breakouts or continuation but also be aware of fake breakouts to get caught in the wash.

For now....



Trade wisely!

gougler08 said:

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Thanks as always FJ, your mom doing ok?

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She is recovering well. Thanks for asking. She has a heart catheter procedure in about an hour so we'll see after or during that for next steps if any.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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I got pinged.

Yes, we are undergoing a $17B acquisition that hit its one year anniversary and a lot of changes are happening.

I still try to trade 2 hours a day but right now it's maybe 2 days a week. It's mainly around my SPY and VIX scalps but I simply don't have time to chart at night. It will get better by Fall.

Another thing, I made a comment on another forum and people call me by my name there, and someone didn't like my candor, and tried to dox me. I know this because my HR called me about it. Nothing happened and my HR laughed it off, but That was a signal to post less for a bit.

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That sucks brother. That's how my screen name came into being. I used to mix it up with progressives on Twitter and my original handle was easy to identify me. Then one day a prog dm'd me my location and said he was coming down to kill me. I thanked him for the advance notice and to please have his affairs in order and please have a list of his kin in his pocket for notification. He never showed. I wasn't concerned but I didn't want anything to happen to my family so then PN was born.

All-in on a LOW breakout today.....stocked up on 7/23 202.5C into the close yesterday. Something I never really do....but a bunch of those Cs were bought last week, cratered and are still sitting in OI. I took a boatload for .05. Chart looks awesome.

FJ43 said:

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gougler08 said:

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Thanks as always FJ, your mom doing ok?

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She is recovering well. Thanks for asking. She has a heart catheter procedure in about an hour so we'll see after or during that for next steps if any.

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Good to hear

Ferris Wheel Allstar said:

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Ccutamu said:

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CLOV is putting in a little overtime. Up 4% 8% AH.

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and this morning, hopefully it squeezes again

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I'll learn my lesson from last time if it does and just sell my shares instead of going covered calls

Thursday Macros

Sorry for delay...I'm in the process of moving my daughter to Law School and on the road....

Treasury Rally Exhaustion...Bull Trap... Risk Strong...Carnival Issues 4% Bonds

Quote:

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Treasuries started the overnight trading in London time as Japan was closed last night and again tonight... Japanese buying as London opened brought the 10 year down to 1.26 yield and was soundly rejected, with a move back above 1.30... Which is where we are now... We continue to believe that a Bull trap was set nicely by the treasury market manipulators, which got CTA's and swap hedgers into the treasury market at bad levels that will now have to be reversed... We have seen this 3 times this year and the average move off the highs (1.126) is about 25 basis... So for 10 years between now and next weeks Fed meeting, we see support of 1.36 and an objective of 1.42.

Longer outlook... Given the Covid Delta Headlines globally we think the Fed will remain more dovish and the US will pass more stimulus, exactly when they do not need it... Inflation is real and not transitory and the supply chain, using semiconductor chips as an example, continues to get extended. The gap between semiconductor orders and taking delivery is now out to 19.3 weeks.. The longest it has been since tracking started in 2017...Nonetheless, we think the long end of the treasury market will continue to steepen and yields reach our earlier objectives... Bob Michele of JP Asset Management was interviewed yesterday where he said the treasury rally has ended and he looks for 10 years to be in a 1.50-2% range over the next 6 months... He likes Corporate bonds, especially HY...

Corporate bonds... IG this week continues to be slow... About 10 billion so far, it does not look like we will get to 20 billion expectation... But HY, and Junk , in particular, looks very strong...after a blip on Monday as some equity markets (Russell 2000) moved into corrective territory, we have see a nice bounce in spreads... Carnival Cruise Lines, with the industry still pretty much shut down, was able, on reverse inquiry,to come to market yesterday with over 2.4 billion of 4% 7 year... Remember a little over a year ago they came to market with an 11.5% coupon bond at a discount... Yesterday's order book was over 5 billion... And again, their business model is suspect...Even Minerd of Guggenheim put in a plug for BB bonds yesterday , and he is looking at an equity correction of 15% before year end

*U.S. STOCKS COULD PULL BACK AS MUCH AS 15% THIS FALL: MINERD

Equities... We think that the nice bounce Tuesday and the continuation Wednesday and an up start today, is bringing money off the sidelines... Call it a Fed put, or a realization that the US economy is not going into a recession next year or even stagflation... We are still firm believers in the inflation story, but that is not today's argument...

Our view is that the equity market is probably ok until next weeks Fed meeting... And maybe until the Jackson Hole conference... But we start to get worried when all the employment benefits, foreclosure moratoriums, and rent moratoriums, end in September... As a capitalist, these programs have to go... But we are prepared for the potential of a correction around that time... But for now we see long rates moving higher and spreads of risk tightening further...

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