Ya, there won't be a day where I lose 4M and merely "pick myself back up". I'd likely go blow 2M on blackjack at the Nugget for 48 straight hours while tipping the drink girls 1M.
Stock Markets
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Last: 1 min ago by confucius_ag
He seems on the up and up but at the same time, that chat room has a quarter million people in it, with 50k online during an average trading day.
How many trade ideas you have to post where you can front run 50k traders for even a dollar gain in stock price before you can be booking four million dollar days either way?
How many trade ideas you have to post where you can front run 50k traders for even a dollar gain in stock price before you can be booking four million dollar days either way?
Trying to learn to find setups on my own and not necessarily the same names that are here everyday. Here's a few of what I think are the better ones that I am looking at the rest of the week. Not sure I know what I'm doing yet, but if I don't put myself out there I won't learn.
HZO - I don't like that the 8 ema is below the 22 ema but it closed above both of those today and everything else looks good.
TREX - I like this one. Just add volume and maybe clear $104 level.
WSM - watching this one. It looks a little early but the ema's are stacked and it is trading in a fairly tight pattern.
HZO - I don't like that the 8 ema is below the 22 ema but it closed above both of those today and everything else looks good.
TREX - I like this one. Just add volume and maybe clear $104 level.
WSM - watching this one. It looks a little early but the ema's are stacked and it is trading in a fairly tight pattern.
AG 2000' said:
He seems on the up and up but at the same time, that chat room has a quarter million people in it, with 50k online during an average trading day.
How many trade ideas you have to post where you can front run 50k traders for even a dollar gain in stock price before you can be booking four million dollar days either way?
Have no idea. I don't really follow his trades. I do however read his trading tips, strategies, etc.
So he lost $4 mill in one day? Not buying it.
Have to know the total in the account to assess it's believability. Kinda like all the ads that say "make 10K in a day trading options" but don't tell you what they put into the trades.Jet Black said:
So he lost $4 mill in one day? Not buying it.
Wow anyone check price of Handbook of TA by Jobman lately.....transitory or what? WSB must have found this thread.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1557385971/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_glt_fabc_09TRNGG0W255KDJJRT1A
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1557385971/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_glt_fabc_09TRNGG0W255KDJJRT1A
Or you could get this one: https://www.ebay.com/itm/164938675041?hash=item26671c7361:i:164938675041BlueTaze said:
Wow anyone check price of Handbook of TA by Jobman lately.....transitory or what? WSB must have found this thread.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1557385971/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_glt_fabc_09TRNGG0W255KDJJRT1A
Dang I might have my first 10x investment.
holy mdia. Didn't see it mentioned in here. 4x gain in a day!
Which one of you guys was big on NNOX? Saw this article so wasn't sure if this was expected or not.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/nanox-signs-msaas-agreement-deployment-110000516.html
https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/nanox-signs-msaas-agreement-deployment-110000516.html
Still have a few thousand shares could be good news, I like that.
Anyone still trading RCON model T retracement?
Got a small position but wondering if dilution news retraces same as other news or sell offs?
Got a small position but wondering if dilution news retraces same as other news or sell offs?
Foggy called it to $125+ by January, so I know he loves it.bmoochie said:
Which one of you guys was big on NNOX? Saw this article so wasn't sure if this was expected or not.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/nanox-signs-msaas-agreement-deployment-110000516.html
Let's see if this can help us navigate both long term and short term. I posted some SPX charts Friday evening and have refined them a bit tonight. I'm not trying to predict what will happen, but rather look at trendlines the way Mancini does, though he is far better.
SPX Monthly - 25 years
The yellow channel seems to be the dominant zone. Those trendlines start back in November/December of 2008. SPX has cleared all of the major long-term trends and has room up to almost 4600.
SPX Weekly - 10 years
The yellow channel is again showing what seems to be the dominant channel. We are pressing the upper trendline of the channel going back to November of 2012 as well as August of 2015. Both trendlines intersect about where we are at. SPX could pull back to the lower trendline around 4300 before advancing higher based off the weekly chart and trends.
SPX Daily - 1 year
Looks like SPX broke above the major trendline going back to January of this year. Shortest term trend so not as strong as the weekly or monthly but still important. If this clears SPX has room to 4500.
My opinion: I've been wrong alot about what I think the market "should" do, but it looks like SPX wants to test 4400, pull back to 4300, then keep grinding up to 4600 long term with several minor dips here and there. Who knows. I'll try to keep these updated and periodically post when we lose or break a major trend. SPX is sitting above 3ATR and well above the 8/21 EMAs so it could always pull at any moment. We'll see what it does.
SPX Monthly - 25 years
The yellow channel seems to be the dominant zone. Those trendlines start back in November/December of 2008. SPX has cleared all of the major long-term trends and has room up to almost 4600.
SPX Weekly - 10 years
The yellow channel is again showing what seems to be the dominant channel. We are pressing the upper trendline of the channel going back to November of 2012 as well as August of 2015. Both trendlines intersect about where we are at. SPX could pull back to the lower trendline around 4300 before advancing higher based off the weekly chart and trends.
SPX Daily - 1 year
Looks like SPX broke above the major trendline going back to January of this year. Shortest term trend so not as strong as the weekly or monthly but still important. If this clears SPX has room to 4500.
My opinion: I've been wrong alot about what I think the market "should" do, but it looks like SPX wants to test 4400, pull back to 4300, then keep grinding up to 4600 long term with several minor dips here and there. Who knows. I'll try to keep these updated and periodically post when we lose or break a major trend. SPX is sitting above 3ATR and well above the 8/21 EMAs so it could always pull at any moment. We'll see what it does.
Question on NFLX- this most recent run from -2ATR to +2ATR seems to have rejected the resistance from 4/20 before the gap down. Earnings coming up but seems like this could go either way. With Disney raising monthly fees, seems like this could be a related play.
They let /ES sell off by 2 points. +50 by open.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Mornun,
Opening a little red this morning but nothing too drastic.
SKEW up close to 158.
OpEx week so possible for some shenanigans.
Should we show signs of weakness I plan to bail on most/all weekly options plays.
Until then trade the trend and I'll keep searching for the nuggets and y'all do the same.
Trade wisely!
Morning.slacker00 said:
Trying to learn to find setups on my own and not necessarily the same names that are here everyday. Here's a few of what I think are the better ones that I am looking at the rest of the week. Not sure I know what I'm doing yet, but if I don't put myself out there I won't learn.
HZO - I don't like that the 8 ema is below the 22 ema but it closed above both of those today and everything else looks good.
TREX - I like this one. Just add volume and maybe clear $104 level.
WSM - watching this one. It looks a little early but the ema's are stacked and it is trading in a fairly tight pattern.
Great job on hunting for setups! My 2 cents anyway....
HZO
Downtrend break(s)
5 & 8 EMA cross
Continuation of reversal.
Closed over the ATR mean.
Right at resistance.
Back into a channel of prior consolidation.
Could be close to going again. Once it closes over the 50 EMA about 49.60 I think this has some legs.
slacker00 said:
Trying to learn to find setups on my own and not necessarily the same names that are here everyday. Here's a few of what I think are the better ones that I am looking at the rest of the week. Not sure I know what I'm doing yet, but if I don't put myself out there I won't learn.
HZO - I don't like that the 8 ema is below the 22 ema but it closed above both of those today and everything else looks good.
TREX - I like this one. Just add volume and maybe clear $104 level.
WSM - watching this one. It looks a little early but the ema's are stacked and it is trading in a fairly tight pattern.
TREX
This looks good.
- Higher lows & highs for a long time.
- First real consolidation in 16 months. See volume profile in addition to Darvas Box.
- Two possible lower trend lines of which both are getting tight.
- Above all EMAs
- Riding the ATR mean.
Breaks downtrend with strength over about 103.40ish and has room back to 111 high+
Possible some August or October calls here or buy/write on shares.
slacker00 said:
Trying to learn to find setups on my own and not necessarily the same names that are here everyday. Here's a few of what I think are the better ones that I am looking at the rest of the week. Not sure I know what I'm doing yet, but if I don't put myself out there I won't learn.
HZO - I don't like that the 8 ema is below the 22 ema but it closed above both of those today and everything else looks good.
TREX - I like this one. Just add volume and maybe clear $104 level.
WSM - watching this one. It looks a little early but the ema's are stacked and it is trading in a fairly tight pattern.
WSM
- Nice move through EMAs and closed over the 50EMA.
- If/when the EMAs cross the 50 this may very well go.
- Its at a wall of resistance now (ran into it yesterday) so really needs to break yesterday's high with volume IMO.
- If it ever loses this range there is a big gap that hasn't been filled below.
SPY & Q puts bought into close.
My plan is to sell those with any retracement for a gain. If we go up I will hold them into tomorrow. I don't plan to cut them today unless for profit and will leave them on as partial insurance against trades.
VIX calls....I will be watching for VIX to get back into the 15s then will set some alerts to buy VIX calls in the lower 15s if I can. Most likely 7/20 or maybe 7/27 15 or 16C.
*Fed's Bullard: Time Is Right to Pull Back on Fed Stimulus
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) July 13, 2021
*Bullard: Economy in 'Very Good Shape' to Thrive With Less Fed Aid
*Bullard: Doesn't Need to Taper Now, Ready to Act When FOMC Decides
*Bullard: Worried Fed Asset Buying Fueling 'Incipient Housing Bubble'
Let her rip TSLA
Thanks FJ. I'll be comparing what the charts end up doing to our notes. Great to have input on the things that I may be missing, like that scary gap below.
Great job identifying potential plays and putting in the work. Curious to see how these turn out.slacker00 said:
Thanks FJ. I'll be comparing what the charts end up doing to our notes. Great to have input on the things that I may be missing, like that scary gap below.
JPMORGAN Q2 EPS USD 3.78 VS. ESTIMATE USD 3.16
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) July 13, 2021
JPMORGAN Q2 REVENUE USD 30,500 MILLION
JPMORGAN Q2 NET INCOME USD 11,900 MILLION VS. ESTIMATE USD 9,500 MILLION$JPM
DPW seems alive this morning
oh how i would love to get out from under this turd
oh how i would love to get out from under this turd
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TSM up past $123.50 this morning. Those calls are lit
It's been an incredible 100 point rally in 3 days for #ES_F off my 4280 support. 4370 target hit
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) July 13, 2021
Plan today: Next up is 4394, with 4408 above. These represent resistance of a 1.5 year rising wedge & bears only shot at a cool-off. ES can't dip there the path to 4700 begins direct https://t.co/HhbBGwfMVi
sts7049 said:
DPW seems alive this morning
oh how i would love to get out from under this turd
Income of 44 million compared to -1.4 million q2 of 2020. Come on, send this.
Fighting the Fed pic.twitter.com/Y0Axmx2DIo
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) July 13, 2021
Tuesday Macros
Markets Waiting for CPI... Long Bond Auction... Fed Speak... Powell Wed... Munis
Markets are biding their time as they took the two treasury auctions, totaling 96 billion yesterday, without an issue... Today we have 24 billion 30 years to bid on . But we have the CPI numbers first... We look at YOY, which is expected to be 4.9%, more than 2.4 times the Fed comfort zone... We continue to see more and more talk about inflation... In Temasek's great earnings today, the most since 2010, their one concern mentioned was global inflation... While they said it could likely be transitory, they defined transitory as 1-2 years... We think the Fed will react well before then...
Fed credibility... We know, we continue to question some of the Fed speak... First, overnight Bullard did an interview , where he was very clear " the time is right to pull back on central bank stimulus"... The markets did not react as they have CPI and long bond auction bidding to worry about... But we can make a case that a new trend in rates will be starting... But getting back to Fed credibility, it was surprising to see Williams speaking yesterday where he said that he sees inflation as transitory just as his NY Fed was publishing
NY FED: YEAR-AHEAD INFL. EXPECTATIONS RISE TO SERIES-HIGH 4.8%
this could lead us back to questioning Fed credibility and the interdependent nature of politics and the Fed... We have another 3 speakers today...
Outlook...flows... We have been arguing the last two weeks that the markets are not moving on peak economic numbers, peak inflation, or global increase in Covid variant cases... While all important, we continue to believe that flows are dominating the market trading and limited liquidity... We studied CTA positions last night.. And we quote a colleague " with rates roughly unchanged week over week, CTA's are now positioned long across global fixed income..." we see CTA's as one of the big players behind treasury longs. The trigger level for more buying from CTAs on the TY1 (10 year futures) stands at 134-10 (currently 133-15) while the level where CTA's would flip short and sell 46 billion of treasuries is 132-27... These are good levels to know as we try to determine whether the next move is to 1.10 10 years or 1.60...
Away from CTA's we continue to study positions, where capitulation of shorts in the short end led to longs in the long end. Net long positioning, again from a colleague, is now at 70 billion, a 95th percentile... But profits are starting to melt away and have dropped 40% in the last few days as yields have bounced higher... Meanwhile legacy shorts have dropped 80%, so the fuel for another rally is looking less likely...
Global investor optimism has dropped according to a BoA monthly fund survey. Investors are starting to think the equity rally has run out of steam... We still see a window of a few weeks as we get into early August... But as we have been reminding clients, that August and September are the two worst months of the year of the 12 , for equities... Does not mean August 1, but put the two major Fed events over the next 5 weeks together, the meeting at the end of July and the Jackson Hole conference, and we have tinder for a good market move... We will detail it at another time... But for today the CPI will set the trend for a few minutes and then will be explained away or ignored...big events are the long bond auction and Powell tomorrow
Lastly , we looked at the Bloomberg-Barclays HY Muni YTW, which is now below 3%, the is the first time we have ever seen this index below 3%... Surprised that Munis do not take advantage of that, but if the answer is they have too much Federal money, we understand... Clearly the needs of Municipals remains high... Have a good day
Markets Waiting for CPI... Long Bond Auction... Fed Speak... Powell Wed... Munis
Markets are biding their time as they took the two treasury auctions, totaling 96 billion yesterday, without an issue... Today we have 24 billion 30 years to bid on . But we have the CPI numbers first... We look at YOY, which is expected to be 4.9%, more than 2.4 times the Fed comfort zone... We continue to see more and more talk about inflation... In Temasek's great earnings today, the most since 2010, their one concern mentioned was global inflation... While they said it could likely be transitory, they defined transitory as 1-2 years... We think the Fed will react well before then...
Fed credibility... We know, we continue to question some of the Fed speak... First, overnight Bullard did an interview , where he was very clear " the time is right to pull back on central bank stimulus"... The markets did not react as they have CPI and long bond auction bidding to worry about... But we can make a case that a new trend in rates will be starting... But getting back to Fed credibility, it was surprising to see Williams speaking yesterday where he said that he sees inflation as transitory just as his NY Fed was publishing
NY FED: YEAR-AHEAD INFL. EXPECTATIONS RISE TO SERIES-HIGH 4.8%
this could lead us back to questioning Fed credibility and the interdependent nature of politics and the Fed... We have another 3 speakers today...
Outlook...flows... We have been arguing the last two weeks that the markets are not moving on peak economic numbers, peak inflation, or global increase in Covid variant cases... While all important, we continue to believe that flows are dominating the market trading and limited liquidity... We studied CTA positions last night.. And we quote a colleague " with rates roughly unchanged week over week, CTA's are now positioned long across global fixed income..." we see CTA's as one of the big players behind treasury longs. The trigger level for more buying from CTAs on the TY1 (10 year futures) stands at 134-10 (currently 133-15) while the level where CTA's would flip short and sell 46 billion of treasuries is 132-27... These are good levels to know as we try to determine whether the next move is to 1.10 10 years or 1.60...
Away from CTA's we continue to study positions, where capitulation of shorts in the short end led to longs in the long end. Net long positioning, again from a colleague, is now at 70 billion, a 95th percentile... But profits are starting to melt away and have dropped 40% in the last few days as yields have bounced higher... Meanwhile legacy shorts have dropped 80%, so the fuel for another rally is looking less likely...
Global investor optimism has dropped according to a BoA monthly fund survey. Investors are starting to think the equity rally has run out of steam... We still see a window of a few weeks as we get into early August... But as we have been reminding clients, that August and September are the two worst months of the year of the 12 , for equities... Does not mean August 1, but put the two major Fed events over the next 5 weeks together, the meeting at the end of July and the Jackson Hole conference, and we have tinder for a good market move... We will detail it at another time... But for today the CPI will set the trend for a few minutes and then will be explained away or ignored...big events are the long bond auction and Powell tomorrow
Lastly , we looked at the Bloomberg-Barclays HY Muni YTW, which is now below 3%, the is the first time we have ever seen this index below 3%... Surprised that Munis do not take advantage of that, but if the answer is they have too much Federal money, we understand... Clearly the needs of Municipals remains high... Have a good day
GS numbers simply rockets past estimates
Goldman Sachs Group Q2 EPS $15.02 Beats $10.23 Estimate, Sales $15.39B Does Not Compare $12.17B Estimate -Dow Jones $GS
— PSK2329 - JHC (@psk2329) July 13, 2021
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