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oldarmy1
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In reply to austinAG90 • 3:34p, 6/25/21
AG
SKEW is broken as well. It's like ASAN ignoring any ATR level right now. Just make sure you have a chair when the music stops.
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FJ43
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 3:37p, 6/25/21
oldarmy1 said:
SKEW is broken as well. It's like ASAN ignoring any ATR level right now. Just make sure you have a chair when the music stops.
ASAN - I hope this sees MT by July 16. For my friends of course.

You taught us all about SKEW and it has worked like a charm. Where it is and has been has me baffled at the moment vs what the market is doing..
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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oldarmy1
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In reply to FJ43 • 3:38p, 6/25/21
AG


We should be looking for the shooting dot. Fairly consistent on the topping out. A little cluster right now, even at these levels. That's why I think we're going to move higher here.
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FJ43
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In reply to austinAG90 • 3:40p, 6/25/21
austinAG90 said:
Should We Be Concerned About the Bond Closes..Highest Since After Fed Thursday

Should we be concerned about the closes of 10's and 30"s?... Highest since the day after the Fed meeting... Just off their wides of the day at 1.53 and 2.16... 10 years above 1.52 is significant, but we are not going to make a big deal about it given the recent swings... With no supply next week in treasuries, the corporate gurus are rate locking their issuance for next week... 5 years continues to inch to higher closes with .98 on the next horizon.... Trading light... Corporate spreads better... We still think the Fed is missing the wage inflation numbers, which are much more influencing for the numbers than commodities... Our friends at Brean pointed out this morning, that while many are just watching the PCE, underlying labor income continues to advance at a very robust rate of 11.6% over the last three months and real consumer spending thus far in the second quarter has advanced at a 12.8% annualized rate from the first quarter... While some may dispute or disagree with the second number , the first number of labor inflation is indisputable as the need for workers remains at a very high level with limited employees insight... Lack of workers means higher and stickier inflation... Cant wait until next weeks employment surprise... Have a good weekend
When do they report employment next week?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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austinAG90
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In reply to FJ43 • 3:41p, 6/25/21
AG
Friday.....
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bmoochie
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In reply to FJ43 • 3:42p, 6/25/21
AG
What does skew show you guys? I see it discussed a lot but not sure what it shows and relevance to market.
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FJ43
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 3:42p, 6/25/21
oldarmy1 said:


We should be looking for the shooting dot. Fairly consistent on the topping out. A little cluster right now, even at these levels. That's why I think we're going to move higher here.
Thanks. I will start circling those or trying to identify them. Wonder if we can set alerts on IBKR for that?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to austinAG90 • 3:43p, 6/25/21
austinAG90 said:
Friday.....
Thanks!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to bmoochie • 3:51p, 6/25/21
bmoochie said:
What does skew show you guys? I see it discussed a lot but not sure what it shows and relevance to market.
SKEW index is a measure of potential risk (tail risk) in the markets. Similar to VIX except VIX measures implied volatility ATM (At The Money) and SKEW is OTM (Out Of The Money).

Higher the number the higher perceived risk. Watch VIX go up and SPY go down.

On SKEW OA had given us 140 & 142 as levels to begin to hedge then 142 trim and fully hedge. At least that is from my seminar notes.

Being at 150+ is nuts from what I have seen. 160 is bananas.

Maybe I have missed something here but that's my generic version.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BrokeAssAggie
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3:52p, 6/25/21
RIG with some volume AH
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98PercenterAg
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3:55p, 6/25/21
AG
+2% this week. I'll take it!
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bmoochie
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In reply to FJ43 • 3:57p, 6/25/21
AG
FJ43 said:
bmoochie said:
What does skew show you guys? I see it discussed a lot but not sure what it shows and relevance to market.
SKEW index is a measure of potential risk (tail risk) in the markets. Similar to VIX except VIX measures implied volatility ATM (At The Money) and SKEW is OTM (Out Of The Money).

Higher the number the higher perceived risk. Watch VIX go up and SPY go down.

On SKEW OA had given us 140 & 142 as levels to begin to hedge then 142 trim and fully hedge. At least that is from my seminar notes.

Being at 150+ is nuts from what I have seen. 160 is bananas.

Maybe I have missed something here but that's my generic version.


Awesome thanks for that. I knew about the vix as a risk indicator. Makes sense why everyone says tread lightly and OA mentioning make sure you have a chair when the music stops.
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FTAG 2000
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4:06p, 6/25/21
AG
BIIB falling after market close after Senate announces hearings into FDA approval of their Alzheimer's drug.

Come on Congress, do something good for once and send this back to the 280s!
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to FJ43 • 4:07p, 6/25/21
Friday at 830 am.

On a side note...

JUNK bond yields recorded at 2.45% today.... All time low for a US junk bond maturing in 7 years or longer.

Average yield is 3.89%, 5 bps off the record low of 3.84.


WOOF!
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LarryL
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In reply to FJ43 • 4:22p, 6/25/21
FJ43 said:

LOTTOS

Just FYI for everyone how I find them.

1. I look at dozens and dozens of charts on my own scans for breakout possibilities to the next SR
2. I subscribe to 2 main options services. VS Options & Elite
3. I compare all 3 and when there is overlap between all 3 it takes up a screen by itself.
4. Services provide levels but I then apply my own levels and use mine unless I missed one they identified.
5. If I like the action I may front run it.
6. I manage the lottos intraday. I bought and sold BABA 3X times today from .20-40ish and the last time left 1 stupid runner. My bad.

Anyone here can do it. Just takes some time.
Do you always look at a select list of stocks? How do you choose the charts you look at?
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FJ43
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In reply to LarryL • 4:33p, 6/25/21
StrawberryFields said:
FJ43 said:

LOTTOS

Just FYI for everyone how I find them.

1. I look at dozens and dozens of charts on my own scans for breakout possibilities to the next SR
2. I subscribe to 2 main options services. VS Options & Elite
3. I compare all 3 and when there is overlap between all 3 it takes up a screen by itself.
4. Services provide levels but I then apply my own levels and use mine unless I missed one they identified.
5. If I like the action I may front run it.
6. I manage the lottos intraday. I bought and sold BABA 3X times today from .20-40ish and the last time left 1 stupid runner. My bad.

Anyone here can do it. Just takes some time.
Do you always look at a select list of stocks? How do you choose the charts you look at?
I have a Mosaic Panel that is just a narrow watchlist down one side with only the name then the rest is just a chart with EMAs & volume. The watchlist I update periodically but it more or less includes all the big guys from AAPL & AMZN to ZM types. I look for high liquidity and weekly option chains for this type thing.

I will typically add in SR levels and trendlines and set an alert or two for each one. Sometimes down is the play for example.

Outside of this list I have a scan that looks for volume, gap up, down & % gain. That pulls in a list live continually and it has a chart and an options chain. I will check that each morning and sometimes if I am bored during the day.



Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Spoony Love
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In reply to 98PercenterAg • 4:35p, 6/25/21
AG
Username checks out?

Really just want to say thanks to all in this thread. I have learned a ton from this thread and helps me with building my strategy. I'm still very new to all of this so it feels like an uphill battle, but all the experience and education in this thread is helping.
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bigtoneag
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 4:41p, 6/25/21
AG
CrazyRichAggie said:
RIG with some volume AH
Another 2 million shares bought by a director.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to bigtoneag • 4:44p, 6/25/21
bigtoneag said:
CrazyRichAggie said:
RIG with some volume AH
Another 2 million shares bought by a director.


Up 3% AH
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FJ43
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4:44p, 6/25/21

NIO

Looks ok to me.

More or less cup and handle and we are in the handle.
Consolidating.
Sitting on support.
Hit +3 ATR and now is sitting more or less at +1
Volume declining so think sellers are mostly out of the way I hope.

Any move back above 46 and these should be nicely green.

Vertical blue line is July 16th for those in the 7/16 50C



Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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4:59p, 6/25/21


VIAC

I think this is positive.

Closed above the 50EMA
8 & 21 EMA cross.
Just above resistance.
There could be some resistance around 46.30s before 48.12
MT is 69.64
Bottom chart has long term lower trend line back to early 2020. Has made a few tests and given up.


I say lets go to the moon and get off the ship before everyone else.




Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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LarryL
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In reply to FJ43 • 5:04p, 6/25/21
FJ43 said:
StrawberryFields said:
FJ43 said:

LOTTOS

Just FYI for everyone how I find them.

1. I look at dozens and dozens of charts on my own scans for breakout possibilities to the next SR
2. I subscribe to 2 main options services. VS Options & Elite
3. I compare all 3 and when there is overlap between all 3 it takes up a screen by itself.
4. Services provide levels but I then apply my own levels and use mine unless I missed one they identified.
5. If I like the action I may front run it.
6. I manage the lottos intraday. I bought and sold BABA 3X times today from .20-40ish and the last time left 1 stupid runner. My bad.

Anyone here can do it. Just takes some time.
Do you always look at a select list of stocks? How do you choose the charts you look at?
I have a Mosaic Panel that is just a narrow watchlist down one side with only the name then the rest is just a chart with EMAs & volume. The watchlist I update periodically but it more or less includes all the big guys from AAPL & AMZN to ZM types. I look for high liquidity and weekly option chains for this type thing.

I will typically add in SR levels and trendlines and set an alert or two for each one. Sometimes down is the play for example.

Outside of this list I have a scan that looks for volume, gap up, down & % gain. That pulls in a list live continually and it has a chart and an options chain. I will check that each morning and sometimes if I am bored during the day.




Is this on the IBKR platform?
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98PercenterAg
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In reply to Spoony Love • 5:09p, 6/25/21
AG
My username can't truly check out until I get a +98% week. To do that I'll need lots of FJ Lottos
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FJ43
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5:13p, 6/25/21

UBER

30k's play from earlier this week.

I wouldn't sleep on this and will be a potential option play to go for round 2 for me next week.

First day to close above the 50EMA
Also closed above all EMAs including the 100EMA.
8/21 EMA cross.
Right at resistance but I find when closes over the 50EMA can have day 2 or continuation.
Has a little room on ATR to go yet probably.
Mt is 53.63ish

Just my 2 cents anyway.



Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to LarryL • 5:14p, 6/25/21
StrawberryFields said:
FJ43 said:
StrawberryFields said:
FJ43 said:

LOTTOS

Just FYI for everyone how I find them.

1. I look at dozens and dozens of charts on my own scans for breakout possibilities to the next SR
2. I subscribe to 2 main options services. VS Options & Elite
3. I compare all 3 and when there is overlap between all 3 it takes up a screen by itself.
4. Services provide levels but I then apply my own levels and use mine unless I missed one they identified.
5. If I like the action I may front run it.
6. I manage the lottos intraday. I bought and sold BABA 3X times today from .20-40ish and the last time left 1 stupid runner. My bad.

Anyone here can do it. Just takes some time.
Do you always look at a select list of stocks? How do you choose the charts you look at?
I have a Mosaic Panel that is just a narrow watchlist down one side with only the name then the rest is just a chart with EMAs & volume. The watchlist I update periodically but it more or less includes all the big guys from AAPL & AMZN to ZM types. I look for high liquidity and weekly option chains for this type thing.

I will typically add in SR levels and trendlines and set an alert or two for each one. Sometimes down is the play for example.

Outside of this list I have a scan that looks for volume, gap up, down & % gain. That pulls in a list live continually and it has a chart and an options chain. I will check that each morning and sometimes if I am bored during the day.




Is this on the IBKR platform?
Yes I primarily trade in IBKR.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Charismatic Megafauna
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5:28p, 6/25/21
AG
I got home from my 4 hour beer lunch and realized all my hedges expired at 3. Bought 1/3% of my accounts worth of vxx shares in aftermarket. Now where's my volmageddon?
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 5:30p, 6/25/21
AG
AG 2000' said:
BIIB falling after market close after Senate announces hearings into FDA approval of their Alzheimer's drug.

Come on Congress, do something good for once and send this back to the 280s!

Nice of them to wait for my put spreads to expire...
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tam2002
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5:43p, 6/25/21
AG
WWR down almost 4% AH
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oldarmy1
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In reply to tam2002 • 6:09p, 6/25/21
AG
Piddly volume. Meaningless
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oldarmy1
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:10p, 6/25/21
AG
Draw the triangle in the converging pattern.
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djmeen95
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6:13p, 6/25/21
AG
Jumped into $PROG after hours. Let's see what's in the cards in the coming weeks.
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BrokeAssAggie
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6:13p, 6/25/21
My Friday lawn update. Water bill is $600 bucks but my grass is green!
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Brewmaster
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 6:22p, 6/25/21
AG
CrazyRichAggie said:
My Friday lawn update. Water bill is $600 bucks but my grass is green!
goodness! you know you can let it grow a tad longer and water a lot less? (St. Augustine right?) I'm a licensed LA and a licensed irrigator (not just a jerk behind a keyboard, lol).
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to Brewmaster • 6:25p, 6/25/21
Zoysia. The water bill is honestly more from the fact we have 7 people in the house and don't use a HE washing machine. Plus it's Austin and they have all this other **** tied to your bull that has nothing to do with actual water usage. I only water 2 times a week.
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BrokeAssAggie
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6:28p, 6/25/21
Height is a little over 2" right now. So not super low by any means.
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