Should we begin some degree of pullback I think there is going to be some good money to be made on downside weekly put scalps and monthly put plays.

There will also be relative strength names to the upside.

Between my own scans, services I subscribe to, follows, etc and especially overlaps I'll try and post as soon as something triggers.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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$WISH. notice volume and reversal up. I think this can go to $20 with continued buying pressure.

More later.

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Thank you for your opinion on WISH. We are in the same camp with respect to the macro markets, I really don't like them right now. However, I've been trading WISH and the technicals that I favor show that it can make a significant move. This is a trade so I'm not holding out for $20 but if it busts through $15.50 and runs, I'll sell into strength and book the profit. I thought it would do it last week but the macro market was horrible and it's hard for stocks to fight against a current like that. This is a trade for me, not a hold like TTD, so if anyone follows and goes into WISH, trade it, get in and get out, like you did in school when you took home a woman you regret when the lights came on at The Chicken, Hurricane Harry's or The Hall.

WWR weekly. Accumulation phase, has found bottom. Upside, would like to see it reclaim the recent $13 high.

Needs volume for more.

$FUBO - I am torn on this and it's hard for me.

Really clear bull flag. I don't know how much the macro markets have an impact on this or not. Also, this one has a lot of baggage from the extreme move late last year and then the puke. 8/21 are positive, rest of the moving averages aren't yet. Probably more upside than down side if the macros cooperate.

I didn't chart this, but model T / Fib high to low has $38.82 as the 50% retracement area. I think we will probably see at least $33.

The volume is still less than the big move, so lots of stranded astronauts.

One more thing - meme stocks to the moon. You all may have good luck trading these on pull backs in the near-term. GME, WISH, SNDL, AMC

Look at those model t moves.

10yr yield continuing to fall for now. Should bode well for tech names (and hopefully small cap/growth)

Morning...

Hope everyone had a great Father's Day.

Big day and week ahead....

Your morning snapshot....



Let's see where things go.
VIX opened up almost at 22 and sits at 20.71 as I type this.

Things slightly green but IMO watch for false moves. SPY below premarket low of 413 and downside likely IMO.

I'll be looking for trades on relative strength (most likely tech), downside trades at risk of losing support and possible MA share pick-ups. Not going long on really anything at this point other than MA opportunities.



Trade wisely!

Hey 30k, sorry that you're having to deal with family members straight up no shame asking for stuff like that. Not sure what to say as there probably isn't a good answer. I'm lucky in that I don't really have to deal with that stuff... only usually expected to be 'generous' and pay for everyone's meals when we visit which I don't really mind tbh (and I've been stranded on motherland island now for 15+ months anyways).

I do however have to deal with regular texts and calls warning me about conspiracy theories that will result in "the stock market going to zero". Genuinely concerned about my wealth preservation because "it would be sad to see us lose everything we've worked for so please take everything out of the stock market for your children's sake". This is from family that have never owned a single stock or even ETF or mutual fund in their lives. Then sprinkle some health concerns that we're likely going to die or be disabled fairly soon because we took the vaccine... so any life advice for that?

So far I just say I appreciate the concerns, but I'm at peace with my decisions and am constantly reassessing. And if any of these theories are true, then there's not much we can do about it anyways as we'll all be screwed.

Monday Macros

Wild Ride Overnight as 10 Years Hit 1.35... Long Bonds 1.92 ...Then Reverse

If you are looking at the markets for the first time this morning you would think an unchanged market from Friday's close... But what you missed was at about 11 PM last night the long of the treasury market rocketed higher in price and lower in yield...we watched prices gap as buying overwhelmed the overnight liquidity... 10 years got to 1.35-1.36 and long bonds 1.92...5/30 got to 108... The 10 year long history showed the low yield in 10 years before the pandemic was 1.35-1.36 ,both in 2012 and 2016... Funny how that stopped the market this morning... As London came in sellers brought the long end of the bond market back to unchanged... This is key to know showing that there are still reflationist trades to unwind, and there are real sellers out there that do not believe the Fed is actually Hawkish... Equities were also volatile where the S+P futures, currently up 15, were in a 51 point range overnight... So beware of the next moves...

Today we have two Fed Hawks speaking, Kaplan and the one that crushed the curve on Friday, Bullard... Both at 9.45.. Then one of the few doves who has not spoken much in the last year, Williams of NY at 3 PM... But all eyes will be on Powell in front of Congress at 2 PM tomorrow, where he will talk about the economy... This will be the first time Powell could try to walk back some of the new Fed Hawkishness and the yield curve massive flattening since he talked during the presser last Wednesday... Should be interesting... For those that continue to always say that the Fed does not control the long end of the treasury market, look at last weeks announcement.. The Fed, by changing their dove positions to hawk positions, crushed the curve and sent the long bond from 2.21 to a low of 1.92 earlier this morning... A good 30 basis... The more interesting thing is while the Fed did move the long end, we think they did it in the opposite direction of what they wanted..Clearly the Fed wants higher long rates... And Yellen, while now at Treasury, has clearly said that a few times over the last month... We warned that tapering might shift the curve, or at least the talking of tapering would shift the curve... We were right, although we did not give direction and guidance.

We want to expand the week ahead, which will be very choppy, with 14 Fed speakers and bank stress tests, but will end it here so you can see the range overnight in case you missed it...