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Ragoo
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6:25a, 6/18/21
AG
Glad I liquidated all of my weekly winners before the close yesterday. Had enough to cover any trades that close as losers today and increase my cash position by $4k. Still fighting back from last weeks 50% draw down but I've been able to claw back.
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FJ43
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In reply to Ragoo • 6:28a, 6/18/21
Ragoo said:
Should have gone with spy puts.
I have an hourly SR at 419.15

Back test of uptrend back to March 4 would be mid 418s.

Below I have:
418.24
417.79
417.03
416.36
414.40
411.95
411.04
408.68
405.23
404.18

We get down here and whoops.....
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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LOYAL AG
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:29a, 6/18/21
AG
FJ43 said:


This one has had a steady stream of good news lately. I've been in $26 cc this week but I really didn't expect to get assigned. Looks like that might happen depending on the broader market.
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BrokeAssAggie
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6:30a, 6/18/21
I'm thankful that after today I will no longer have to look at VEON calls in my account
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FJ43
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 6:33a, 6/18/21
CrazyRichAggie said:
I'm thankful that after today I will no longer have to look at VEON calls in my account
I still have Sept $2
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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J.P. 03
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:36a, 6/18/21
AG
FJ43 said:

SPY where ya going?

419.64...yesterday's low was 419.32

VIX rising at 18.65

The degenerate in me chooses to believe that it's just providing a buying opportunity for expiring 419 C lottos that will print money when we rip back to 423 this afternoon.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:37a, 6/18/21
FJ43
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6:43a, 6/18/21
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BrokeAssAggie
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7:00a, 6/18/21
'Q's holding green
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FJ43
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In reply to J.P. 03 • 7:01a, 6/18/21
J.P. 03 said:
FJ43 said:

SPY where ya going?

419.64...yesterday's low was 419.32

VIX rising at 18.65

The degenerate in me chooses to believe that it's just providing a buying opportunity for expiring 419 C lottos that will print money when we rip back to 423 this afternoon.
On expiration day like today I mostly move to next week's expiration on calls but will play the downside on puts for today's expiry.

My sick mind hopes today's quad witch tests 416.36, bounce and take it long with 6/25 419 or 420C.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Ragoo
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In reply to J.P. 03 • 7:03a, 6/18/21
AG
J.P. 03 said:
FJ43 said:

SPY where ya going?

419.64...yesterday's low was 419.32

VIX rising at 18.65

The degenerate in me chooses to believe that it's just providing a buying opportunity for expiring 419 C lottos that will print money when we rip back to 423 this afternoon.
here for 423, was expecting 425 and fade though.
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FJ43
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 7:06a, 6/18/21
CrazyRichAggie said:
'Q's holding green
Annnnnd 5 min later she red
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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7:10a, 6/18/21
VIX at 19.5

Highest since 6/3
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BrokeAssAggie
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7:13a, 6/18/21
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FJ43
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7:14a, 6/18/21
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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7:19a, 6/18/21

VIX at that magic 20...20.06
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:21a, 6/18/21
FJ43 said:
Ragoo said:
Should have gone with spy puts.
I have an hourly SR at 419.15

Back test of uptrend back to March 4 would be mid 418s.

Below I have:
418.24
417.79
417.03
416.36
414.40
411.95
411.04
408.68
405.23
404.18

We get down here and whoops.....
417.79 - Check
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:24a, 6/18/21
FJ43 said:
FJ43 said:
Ragoo said:
Should have gone with spy puts.
I have an hourly SR at 419.15

Back test of uptrend back to March 4 would be mid 418s.

Below I have:
418.24
417.79
417.03
416.36
414.40
411.95
411.04
408.68
405.23
404.18

We get down here and whoops.....
417.79 - Check
417.03 Check
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BrokeAssAggie
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7:25a, 6/18/21
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austinAG90
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7:30a, 6/18/21
AG
Friday Macros

Wild Ride Thursday...5 Sigma Move...Reflation and Carry Trades Smoked

There are a few things we got right and a few that we just did not see happening... What was right was that big moves start about 18 hours after the Fed meetings... And yesterday was a big move... One colleague called it a 5 sigma move, another called in a 4 sigma move in 2 years and 5/30... What's one sigma among friends?... Either way the Fed move had major unintended consequences in the treasury markets, as reflation and carry trades were unwound... Call it a taper tantrum as you again see what happens when everyone is trying to get through the door at once... Liquidity is a fraction of what is necessary... Either way it was unintended consequences and not what the Fed wanted to see... Expect them to try to walk back some of their inflation expectations over the next couple of weeks... Powell will speak Tuesday as well as 14 other speakers next week...

What we heard yesterday from clients that was wrong... 1) Markets are now anticipating a recession for next year... Could not be more wrong, the US economy will expand significantly... 2) the Delta Variant will create another Covid pandemic shut down... We do not see it, as of last night the experts we follow say that if you are double vaxxed, you are good... Some of the southern states where the numbers are weaker have more risk, but we do not see another shut down and that is not why the treasury market bull flattened yesterday... 3) Hedge fund got stopped out due to massive losses and may close down... While we did not hear of one particular player forced to cover, clearly many traders were tapped and stops kicked in... But we see it as more losses that have to be digested by the worlds carry players... But no disaster.

Fed and markets.... What the Fed told us simply on Wednesday is that they are no longer sure that inflation is necessarily transitory. They are now on alert that 5% CPI and 6.6% PPI was not what they were expecting to see... But the Fed did not change anything except for the 5 basis move higher in IOER and Repo... We still do not know when the next increase of rates will be, we think 2022... And tapering will not kick in soon enough... Expect some of the crazy curve moves from yesterday to start reversing next week as the Fed tries to walk it back... Clearly Wednesday was a policy error in many market participants mind... The Fed will try to correct this.

So back to today... Treasury markets were lower in Asia, where the 10 year hit 1.52 and then rallied in London back to 1.47 (1.48) now... 1.47 is still a strong resistance... Some traders still have to unwind, others want to put the trades back on... We expect to see a back and forth until the afternoon, when liquidity should suffer as today is a Federal Holiday, with banks and the wires open... Could get tricky, especially for the long bond... Equities have a triple witching close...so volatility will be with us, but it is a sunny Friday in the summer in the East with good weather, so we expect liquidity to wane. Ag commodities are already up over 3% this morning, led by corn and soybeans.

Next week we expect to see more normal trading and we think rates will start to back up... 5 years remain well above the .78 level at .86... After hitting .91 twice in the last 36 hours... And equities continue the chop with Nasdaq outperforming.. No strong view on equities between now and month end...
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FJ43
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7:33a, 6/18/21
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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McInnis 03
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7:37a, 6/18/21
AG
Is everyone bearish this morning?
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 7:40a, 6/18/21
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Is everyone bearish this morning?


Yes but not for today. It's opex so you should see pinning action.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:42a, 6/18/21
AG
To be clear though, I would like to see us go -5% today.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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FJ43
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 7:42a, 6/18/21
McInnis 03 said:
Is everyone bearish this morning?
Not yet just want to catch the pivot and take the ride for a short trade.

Please wait on me....
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:42a, 6/18/21
AG
And I'd like the vix to hit 40.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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FJ43
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:46a, 6/18/21
$30,000 Millionaire said:
And I'd like the vix to hit 40.
I think I sold my VIX calls a bit early
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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7:52a, 6/18/21
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:12a, 6/18/21
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Is everyone bearish this morning?


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FJ43
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8:14a, 6/18/21
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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GreasenUSA
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8:15a, 6/18/21
AG
Likely to have an all or nothing day today. A small bet could be a big winner. A large bet could be a big loser. I'm staying as small as possible on my 0DTE options and/or sticking to shares today. I managed to trade the dip on AAPL pre-market to get a little bit of cash flow, and I'm perfectly happy to sit back and chill if I don't feel comfortable with anything I see.
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Ranger222
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8:16a, 6/18/21
AG
how many people actually went into the office today?

has will meade tweeted yet that all of wall street are in their hampton homes or their yachts and not trading today?
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Ranger222 • 8:19a, 6/18/21
AG
Ranger222 said:
how many people actually went into the office today?

has will meade tweeted yet that all of wall street are in their hampton homes or their yachts and not trading today?
My office barely believes Christmas is a holiday.

#OfficeLife #EssentialWorker #GetYourAssInTheShop
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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bmoochie
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:21a, 6/18/21
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Ranger222 said:
how many people actually went into the office today?

has will meade tweeted yet that all of wall street are in their hampton homes or their yachts and not trading today?
My office barely believes Christmas is a holiday.

#OfficeLife #EssentialWorker #GetYourAssInTheShop
All three of you??
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tlepoC
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8:25a, 6/18/21
AG
It would have been cool if I had held onto those lotto SPY 417 puts I picked up late yesterday. profit is profit but...more profit is better?
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