Inverse H&S?

bmoochie said:

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FJ43 said:

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In!

Entered July 16 $NVDA $645 Puts at $2.54

— 2021 Opportunity Stocks Knock (@oldarmy1) June 17, 2021

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I finally watched the presentation you guys put on and I saw the over 3 ATR and felt like a light bulb went off. Can't believe I knew the reasoning immediately. Again I can't appreciate this thread enough!

Edit to ask why $645 Strike though. Is that rough model T from Mid may lows?

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Yes, exactly

I think NVDA is going to $800 before the split on July 19th.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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I think your green ending forecast this morning will come to pass.

PS: Can you forecast me some rain?

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IF we close above yesterday's close I think this will qualify for a Red Dog Reversal. Went above yesterday close at open, traded below yesterday's low then reversal above yesterday close.

I think anyways.

How is LAC not a great deal here? I mean, it's a much better deal than it was when i sold puts tuesday...

FJ43 said:

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30K....this has you all over it from the zoom call.

OA's 7/16 465P trade.

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Agree, and based on that chart, it looks like the mean is currently sitting around $675

ibdm98 said:

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bmoochie said:

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FJ43 said:

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In!

Entered July 16 $NVDA $645 Puts at $2.54

— 2021 Opportunity Stocks Knock (@oldarmy1) June 17, 2021

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I finally watched the presentation you guys put on and I saw the over 3 ATR and felt like a light bulb went off. Can't believe I knew the reasoning immediately. Again I can't appreciate this thread enough!

Edit to ask why $645 Strike though. Is that rough model T from Mid may lows?

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Yes, exactly

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We're green!

Up 2%

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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I think NVDA is going to $800 before the split on July 19th.

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Think so too. Makes sense it would retrace at least some of today's huge move before next leg up though.

A Red Dog Reversal Buy, correct?

Not a Red Dog Reversal Sell, correct?

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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A Red Dog Reversal Buy, correct?

Not a Red Dog Reversal Sell, correct?

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Yep. RDRs are typically bullish in this scenario.

There is also an RDR in reverse when at tops. Everything just the opposite order wise.

Pretty accurate pattern he has 'named' and usually works out.

FJ43 said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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I think NVDA is going to $800 before the split on July 19th.

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Think so too. Makes sense it would retrace at least some of today's huge move before next leg up though.

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NVDA = I've been staring at this one for days. To me it had $800 written all over it. My reasoning, quirky Tech traders want the split starting at $200+ as they know it's cheap at $200 per share post split. Not exactly scientific reasoning,...but it works for me.

Transparency: The reality, I own zero. I have ownership of NVDA for my son in his account. I was too busy with other share issues to dive in at $700 and should have. If it dips back to $700, I'm in in my account.

FJ43 said:

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In!

Entered July 16 $NVDA $645 Puts at $2.54

— 2021 Opportunity Stocks Knock (@oldarmy1) June 17, 2021

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I like this move. +3 ATR. I went and looked back at the AAPL split from last August. It lived above +3 ATR for a few days before quickly reverting to the mean. We may have not seen NVDA's peak just yet, but I jumped in anyway.

Prognightmare said:

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Scimitar said:

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I would say buy-side is better for a job because you are investing rather than advising. That said, the underlying work is largely the same either way and I truly have a servant's heart and like helping folks.

And, like anywhere else, no shortage of backstabbers

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I was in the industry a longtime ago and these two statements tell me that you and I are similar. Backstabbers are everyone at any firm from my experience and most, if not all, are alphas.

I'm grateful for what I learned by the experience but I'd never go back. I now just actively control the accounts for people very close to me and I do it for free. I have friends I make recs to but they only buy me a beer or shot and that's cool. Except for my friend in Houston, he's required to bring me shawarmas and humus from Phoenicia Deli in HTown when he comes to visit or I don't give him any advice.

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You're a better man than me. I refuse to manage anyone else's money....too much "feels" and emotion to deal with. I might give my opinions from time to time but that's as far as I go.

My biggest gripe about the sell-side part of the industry is that as banks became financial supermarkets and then onto Super Walmarts, the compensation structure hasn't changed. How can you expect cross-team collaboration if you have to kill what you eat?

For buy side, It's great right out of school (undergrad or grad), but you really need to make partner to make money (i.e., invest your own money). That "bonus potential" line is only enticing for a minute.

BB 12,000+ Jun. 25 $13.5 Calls at $1.1s

cisgenderedAggie said:

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Scimitar said:

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As long as you reflect that in your cost basis.

I typically only sell options. Covered calls to reduce my cost basis or short puts if I want to be assigned and own the stock cheaper than where it was trading.

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Yes, at $10.70 entry, I believe this is accepting a $0.2 loss if it breaks the wrong way after earnings and raises to $10.74 cost basis of it goes high. Ultimately, after reading a bit this morning following OA's post, I'm hoping for longer term return from the income with this, but 400 shares is probably a bit high in exposure for my taxable portfolio. If it breaks up, I'll sell CC on half at an ITM strike higher than my entry.

And hoping I'm not ****ing the strategy up on it this time

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Well, presumably you want to own the stock long enough to appreciate to your target, so a little insurance isn't a bad idea. But it can get expensive...and I invest money I don't plan on touching for at least 20 years, so I don't let the volatility get to me.

On ET, for example, as I type this it's down 6.3%, but my investment is still up 78.2%.

That said, I too get emotional and stubborn so sometimes and end up holding losers far longer than I should.

Some top tech sector flow coming in above ask:$NVDA - $1.2M put block$AAPL - $996K call sweep$FB - $937K put split

— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) June 17, 2021

AMZN going to try for $3,500 before close.

Beyond my pay grade but will we shorts need to cover some before close?

By the way, I've long griped that most trading platforms are geared to day trading and, since I no longer have a Bloomberg Terminal, it was hard to get fundamental data for value, and even growth, investing.

Marine buddy of mine turned me on to Stock Rover. It's a screener, not a trading platform, so you still need a brokerage account, but you can manually enter your trades into a portfolio or you can link your brokerage accounts to automatically download. I do the former and really like having the metrics handy and coming up with my own "buy and hold until target is reached" screeners.

ibdm98 said:

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Rare sight today, very rare to see in nature ... we have the reverse quasi-moto H&S on the $SPY

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Oughta go all in lotto on 6/18 SPY 423C with a beast like that on the screen. Should scare all bears away for sure.

Scimitar said:

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cisgenderedAggie said:

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Scimitar said:

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As long as you reflect that in your cost basis.

I typically only sell options. Covered calls to reduce my cost basis or short puts if I want to be assigned and own the stock cheaper than where it was trading.

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Yes, at $10.70 entry, I believe this is accepting a $0.2 loss if it breaks the wrong way after earnings and raises to $10.74 cost basis of it goes high. Ultimately, after reading a bit this morning following OA's post, I'm hoping for longer term return from the income with this, but 400 shares is probably a bit high in exposure for my taxable portfolio. If it breaks up, I'll sell CC on half at an ITM strike higher than my entry.

And hoping I'm not ****ing the strategy up on it this time

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Well, presumably you want to own the stock long enough to appreciate to your target, so a little insurance isn't a bad idea. But it can get expensive...and I invest money I don't plan on touching for at least 20 years, so I don't let the volatility get to me.

On ET, for example, as I type this it's down 6.3%, but my investment is still up 78.2%.

That said, I too get emotional and stubborn so sometimes and end up holding losers far longer than I should.

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LOLtargets. I still don't know how the **** to do that.

$FUBO has a strong flag pattern and scanning the options I see the July 16 $34 calls had a spike in activity.

Taking a few on this pullback right here.

— 2021 Opportunity Stocks Knock (@oldarmy1) June 17, 2021

Newb question, how does a wick reach this far down? The stock price never threatened to get nearly that low. What's happening there? Just curious.

Ragoo said:

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Scimitar posting on this thread

Insert - we're not worthy.gif

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More fun than the GB nowadays

Fairfield_Ag said:

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Newb question, how does a wick reach this far down? The stock price never threatened to get nearly that low. What's happening there? Just curious.

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Somebody fat fingered a $97 sell instead of $107?

Fairfield_Ag said:

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Newb question, how does a wick reach this far down? The stock price never threatened to get nearly that low. What's happening there? Just curious.

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I see it on the daily, but once i go hourly i dont see it. Not sure what's going on there.

Tomorrow will be whatever tomorrow is with expiry and the like. Its next week I am looking forward to.

SPY & Qs

SPY back tested the loooooong term trend.
Sitting just above the ATR mean below 8 and above 21 EMAs.



Qs

Well....solid day.
At +2 ATR
Above all EMAs.