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FJ43
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 8:03a, 6/16/21
LOYAL AG said:
FJ43 said:

Morning....

Your morning snapshot....



Not expecting a ton of action before the Fed today but may be some opportunities after JP speaks. Up or down. My plan is to try and exit most expiring options today/tomorrow heading into Friday expiry.

Mostly flat to down this early but SKEW and VIX up. SKEW now at 161.35 and new high.

I think for the rest of the week its about....



Trade wisely!








Not sure what if anything to make of the SKEW being so high. I've read that it has a poor history of predicting a drop in the market which seems to be its only purpose in life. It does seem to suggest that market sentiment is turning bearish which contradicts both VIX which has been bullish and PC Ratio which is neutral but has been bullish on recent days.

I'm guessing the FOMC minutes will be met with more anticipation than normal with significant inflation presenting itself at a time when they have said rates wouldn't change for at least a year or longer. If they reverse course on rates that's going to trigger a sell off obviously.

My only real play this week has been selling a GOOG call spread on Monday afternoon. Sold it for $1.3 and expecting to buy it back today for half or less. After that I'll sit on the sidelines the rest of the week.


I did an exercise maybe a month or two ago and charted SKEW back over the past year+. I focused on the SKEW hitting a certain level then added a vertical line each time it did. That vertical line touch of SKEW at its level correlated to a pullback within a day or two of SPY.

How does it work. Not entirely sure but all I know is it's been pretty reliable in how it charts overlayed to SPY.
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tam2002
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8:07a, 6/16/21
AG
I want to add to my WWR position here but would it probably be smart to wait until after this fed meeting to see what happens?
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McInnis 03
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8:07a, 6/16/21
AG
Nice little summary sheet.


***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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8:08a, 6/16/21
AUVI UP premarket on this news
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:08a, 6/16/21
AG
FJ43 said:
LOYAL AG said:
FJ43 said:

Morning....

Your morning snapshot....



Not expecting a ton of action before the Fed today but may be some opportunities after JP speaks. Up or down. My plan is to try and exit most expiring options today/tomorrow heading into Friday expiry.

Mostly flat to down this early but SKEW and VIX up. SKEW now at 161.35 and new high.

I think for the rest of the week its about....



Trade wisely!








Not sure what if anything to make of the SKEW being so high. I've read that it has a poor history of predicting a drop in the market which seems to be its only purpose in life. It does seem to suggest that market sentiment is turning bearish which contradicts both VIX which has been bullish and PC Ratio which is neutral but has been bullish on recent days.

I'm guessing the FOMC minutes will be met with more anticipation than normal with significant inflation presenting itself at a time when they have said rates wouldn't change for at least a year or longer. If they reverse course on rates that's going to trigger a sell off obviously.

My only real play this week has been selling a GOOG call spread on Monday afternoon. Sold it for $1.3 and expecting to buy it back today for half or less. After that I'll sit on the sidelines the rest of the week.


I did an exercise maybe a month or two ago and charted SKEW back over the past year+. I focused on the SKEW hitting a certain level then added a vertical line each time it did. That vertical line touch of SKEW at its level correlated to a pullback within a day or two of SPY.

How does it work. Not entirely sure but all I know is it's been pretty reliable in how it charts overlayed to SPY.
That's really interesting info, thank you. This is from Investopedia:

Quote:
In practice the SKEW index has been a poor indicator of stock market volatility. Financial writer Charlie Bilello observed data from the biggest one-day falls in the S&P 500 and the SKEW Index preceding these falls. "Going back to 1990, none of the worst declines had a SKEW Index in the prior month that was within the top 5% of historical values. So, when actual tail risk was present, SKEW did not predict it," Bilello said.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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8:21a, 6/16/21
Man, July 40 and 50 sweepers for VIX yesterday
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gigemJTH12
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8:23a, 6/16/21
AG
now that all the boys are back on fruit...lets have some fun!
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to 59 South • 8:29a, 6/16/21
AG
59 South said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Sigh. Getting tired of these massive swings with ROKU. Gonna sell as soon as it hits 370.
We should all know how crazy she is by now, but she always pays off in the end. If your stomach can't take it, then move on to a more homely stock. If it can, wait till $700 in the next year or two. Massive overreaction to YouTube TV offering its own stick.
Well I'm at least going to start taking some profits here soon. 18 shares is too much for a b***ch this crazy. (And expensive.)
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cageybee77
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8:33a, 6/16/21
AG
I don't know anything about it yet, but dang BCTX
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to tam2002 • 8:35a, 6/16/21
AG
tam2002 said:
I want to add to my WWR position here but would it probably be smart to wait until after this fed meeting to see what happens?

Half now, half after? Good time to sell expiring $5 puts imo
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ProgN
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In reply to cageybee77 • 8:39a, 6/16/21
cageybee77 said:
I don't know anything about it yet, but dang BCTX
Quote:
  • BriaCell Therapeutics Corp (NASDAQ: BCTX) has advanced its targeted oncology therapeutics into several novel immunotherapy cell lines, including - Bria-Pros for prostate cancer, Bria-Mel for melanoma, and Bria-Lung for lung cancer.
  • The company anticipates commencing clinical trials for these novel therapies in 2022.
  • Bria-OTS, an off-the-shelf personalized immunotherapy for advanced breast cancer, remains on track to commence patient dosing in 2021.
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astros4545
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8:41a, 6/16/21
AG
KIQ coming down to a re-entry position
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BrokeAssAggie
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8:47a, 6/16/21
Powell's press conference is at 1:30. Guessing we stay pretty flat until then.
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J.P. 03
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:48a, 6/16/21
AG
FJ43 said:

How is your SPY scalping going? Any new tips or tricks?
Nothing that I'd recommend emulating yet, but I'm learning a ton. I've been setting aside a small chunk of money every day for the past couple of weeks that's dedicated to scalping, and here's what I've been doing with it:

1) Not buying anything before 9:30, which has really sucked the last couple of sessions when everyone and his dog knew we were going to start the day with a selloff. The purpose, though, is to give me time to see how the trading day might unfold and let me make a plan to capitalize on moves that are already confirming vs trying to time the beginning of a move. Trying to time the top or bottom KILLED me when I first started doing this. Plus, I remember reading somewhere that 50% of the time, SPY hits its high or low for the day within the first hour. Not sure if that's accurate, but I'm trading as if it is.

2) Because the amounts I'm using are small by this board's standards, I have the freedom to take risks. For example, I'm only buying options that expire either that day or the day after, and I'm buying calls with strikes at the next dollar below current price/puts with strikes at the next dollar above current price so I don't waste much money on premium. This also gives me the volatility I need to really see how moves in the chart impact price, but obviously they move quick so you have to be able to babysit them.

3) I try to wait until a pivot is confirmed on the 10-minute candles before entering. This is frustrating at times, too, but it has saved me from having to enter and exit quickly when a trade immediately turns against me. Sometimes I'll enter if I feel good about what the 5-minute candles are showing instead, but I still don't have the confidence to rely solely on 3-minute or 1-minute candles yet and doubt I ever will.

4) Because of the huge volatility swings with expiring options, I've had to loosen my restrictions a little bit as far as when I pull the plug on losers. If I bailed every time they dropped by 10 or sometimes even 20 percent, I'd probably already be out of money. On the flip side, you can make 30, 40, or even 50+% within hours or sometimes minutes if you catch the right move and commit to exiting before it turns again....which it will. Soon.

If it would helpful to the board, I can post my entries each day for educational purposes, but to be honest my fear is that some people out there are blindly following everything that gets posted here, and I don't want to bankrupt anyone as my hit rate is just SLIIIIIGHTLY lower than OA's

I wasn't able to make the Zoom call, but I am planning to go back and watch the recording and will post any thoughts I have based on the information you presented.

And as far as how it's going, I'm up 450% with this method so far, but I promise you'd be a lot less impressed with that number if you saw the actual dollar amounts involved. I also don't think it's sustainable long-term, so I'll continue to revise as I learn more. I'm just gun-shy to load up on options for other stocks right now after getting torched on all the April and May calls I picked up before the mini-correction back in March. We'll see what happens after we get the anticipated pullback, but this has been a lot of fun in the meantime.
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BrokeAssAggie
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8:50a, 6/16/21
Fruit is going to rip..
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 8:53a, 6/16/21
AG
CrazyRichAggie said:
Fruit is going to rip..


Yes but probably not this week.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 8:54a, 6/16/21
LOYAL AG said:
CrazyRichAggie said:
Fruit is going to rip..


Yes but probably not this week.
Trying to breakout now...
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Michael Cera Palin
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In reply to austinAG90 • 9:13a, 6/16/21
AG
austinAG90 said:
The demand for new cars and used cars is off the charts... Avis and Hertz are in desperate need of cars... So are individuals... The economy is going to soar from here as supply chain issues get resolved... But it looks to take some time... So while the commodity cycle has been retreating, we don't think it is transitory and will continue to accelerate...as we say in betting parlance, take the over.
Very very anecdotal but a close friend works sales at a car dealership and they've broken their monthly record for online inquiries and the month is only half way over. People are looking far and wide to find what they want/need.
Crazy watching true "pent up demand" be unleashed in real time.
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Ragoo
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9:13a, 6/16/21
AG
Come on tech let's get rippy
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bmoochie
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 9:14a, 6/16/21
AG
CrazyRichAggie said:
Fruit is going to rip..
By the end of this week would be nice and ok by me
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to J.P. 03 • 9:19a, 6/16/21
AG
Sounds like you're playing a handful of contracts like me, 2-8? As your bucket of money you've dedicated to this grows are you increasing the amount you play? I started with the intention of doing this but i can't make myself drop more than $200 or so on what still feels like gambling despite being pretty successful at it...so i keep playing just a few hundred bucks and setting aside the proceeds
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0708aggie
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 9:20a, 6/16/21
AG
Hey bud are you still holding TRVN?
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to 0708aggie • 9:22a, 6/16/21
AG
Shhhhh.... you'll scare it!
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KT_Ag08
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In reply to Michael Cera Palin • 9:24a, 6/16/21
AG
Part of it is there isn't any stock because the auto makers don't have the microchips they need for their end products. My brother works at a dealership and they are worried about running out of inventory because there aren't any deliveries coming.
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0708aggie
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 9:25a, 6/16/21
AG
Would be nice to scare it back to my cost basis.
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BlueTaze
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 9:27a, 6/16/21
CrazyRichAggie said:
Powell's press conference is at 1:30. Guessing we stay pretty flat until then.


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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to 0708aggie • 9:30a, 6/16/21
AG
What's your basis? Hopefully not much over 2.3? I consider that my baseline, and under $2 i buy pretty irresponsibly. I really like the 2023 $5 calls
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Esteban du Plantier
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9:49a, 6/16/21
AG
Wwr jun 5c expiring in a couple days.

What are you guys doing with that? I like the July 5c premium, but if it breaks $5, I'd have to roll out pretty far to credit at 7.5c.

I'm thinking about selling the July 7.5c for like a nickel to reduce my basis by another percent. I expect it to move big eventually.
.
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BlueTaze
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9:53a, 6/16/21
SKEW at 161.35

Wonder if this is related to Fed. Possibly lots of money hedged up as Blackrock confirms there are now lots of differing positions in Fed meeting room. Will be interesting to watch SKEW this week.
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Cowboy Curtis
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9:57a, 6/16/21
AG
Buying the ELOX dip?
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:57a, 6/16/21
AG
I'm in the office today with a ton of meetings - likely not able to post until the afternoon. All about the fed.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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J.P. 03
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 9:57a, 6/16/21
AG
NRD09 said:
Sounds like you're playing a handful of contracts like me, 2-8? As your bucket of money you've dedicated to this grows are you increasing the amount you play? I started with the intention of doing this but i can't make myself drop more than $200 or so on what still feels like gambling despite being pretty successful at it...so i keep playing just a few hundred bucks and setting aside the proceeds
Essentially yes. But I will tell you one of the biggest mistakes I made when I first started doing this was not knowing what my upper limit was going to be until it was too late. There's a point where you find yourself glued to the chart and you're hanging on every penny that something moves because you realize you've put too much on the table and the thought of losing it makes you sick. My advice is to identify this number ahead of time and commit to staying below it.

If that number for you is $200, great. If you have a great trading day, set those profits aside and play that same $200 the next time. If you lose, you can replenish your account with your original winnings, or bank them and go out to a nice dinner once you've saved enough up. It's easy to fall into the trap of "I made 25% on $200 today....imagine what I could do with $300...or $400...or $1,000."

And you're absolutely right about this feeling like gambling. Yes, we can educate ourselves and increase our chances of success and take defensive measures to protect ourselves to some degree, but at the end of the day, none of us are immune from whatever the macro market decides it wants to do.
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SoTXAg09
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9:59a, 6/16/21
AG
Goalposts on BBIG?
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FJ43
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In reply to Cowboy Curtis • 10:01a, 6/16/21
Cowboy Curtis said:
Buying the ELOX dip?
I added some here under $2
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confucius_ag
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10:04a, 6/16/21
AG
RUN with a move on some volume. ERCOT issues? Time for solar.
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