VEON

Not quite sure what to make of this chart at the moment.

Closed below long term trend.
Volume profile.
Below PBV shelf.
Below all EMAs including 200 now.

Unless I missing something it isn't something I would enter today fresh.

more 2.10 touches after hours on ELOX, but now 2.18, ha! poor shorts...

Any of y'all still in CIDM?

cmk10 said:

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Any of y'all still in CIDM?

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I am. Only net free shares from early on and new net free trading the channels between 1.15-1.40.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Sigh. Getting tired of these massive swings with ROKU. Gonna sell as soon as it hits 370.

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We should all know how crazy she is by now, but she always pays off in the end. If your stomach can't take it, then move on to a more homely stock. If it can, wait till $700 in the next year or two. Massive overreaction to YouTube TV offering its own stick.

Morning....

Your morning snapshot....



Not expecting a ton of action before the Fed today but may be some opportunities after JP speaks. Up or down. My plan is to try and exit most expiring options today/tomorrow heading into Friday expiry.

Mostly flat to down this early but SKEW and VIX up. SKEW now at 161.35 and new high.

I think for the rest of the week its about....



Trade wisely!

Wednesday Macros.

Markets Unchanged...Coiling For a Big Move...Tantrum or Melt Up?? You Pick

Markets are practically unchanged awaiting the Fed announcement and press conference at 2 and 2.30, respectively..... Questions that the markets are asking is whether Powell will continue his transitory defense of inflation... What does that actually mean?... Is transitory a few months or a few years... China is out in the press today limiting the buying of commodities from overseas... They are opening up their reserves of copper and other metals... But how much are they willing to intervene?...Commodity prices have seen spikes and swoons recently... Bank America says the commodity trades are some of the most crowded among their recent fund manager survey...Copper has now fallen 12% from its spring highs after doubling in the previous 14 month...Lumber futures are down 45% in the past month after doubling the previous 6 weeks..Lumber has now retraced 80% of its spike since last March... So we see some of what is meant by transitory... But wage inflation is accelerating as is owner equivalent rents... Fed is worried about mild inflation of 2-3%... But CPI YOY is now 5% and PPI 6.6%... Is the Fed worried? Will they show that today?

Fed...There is no right answer today... We expect the dot plots to show more strength and faster rate rises... We expect the Fed to raise both their economic outlook and inflation outlook... But will they mention tapering?...Powell needs to recognize and address the rising inflation and the economy... Yes he can talk about employment being shy 7.6 million jobs, but there are over 9 million jobs being offered out there.. And 25 states reducing Federal employment benefits should bring 4 million people off the dole... With more by the fall... Will Powell allow tapering talk to start?...seems a misuse of sources to continue to buy mortgage paper... And JPM put out a report today saying they expect 10 years to rise 45 basis in yield by the fourth quarter... That would put us right at the 1.95-2% level we have been expecting..albeit longer than we thought to get there....We still think Powell is a one term as chair.

Economists are poor at predicting growth... The Fed forecasts are not better and sometimes worse... Commodities have corrected some, but are still high... We doubt that the Chinese can control the whole world's demand for any length of time.. The world is rebounding... We see it as the whole northeast has reopened as the 10 states surrounding us all have 70% or higher vaccination rates... The talk that weaker retail sales were about a slowdown is ludicrous... It is a supply chain issue... The demand for new cars and used cars is off the charts... Avis and Hertz are in desperate need of cars... So are individuals... The economy is going to soar from here as supply chain issues get resolved... But it looks to take some time... So while the commodity cycle has been retreating, we don't think it is transitory and will continue to accelerate...as we say in betting parlance, take the over.

Big names have been over the press recently... Paul Tudor Jones could not be clearer, the current Fed policy is " bat sht crazy"...El Arian writings today were more diplomatic, but the Fed has to taper.... Kyle Bass was all over the news yesterday talking about 12% actual inflation and negative real interest rates of 10%... While somewhat true, we are always skeptical of those are that more than likely trying to push a position they have on... Tudor Jones did not seem to have a position and of course El Arian, is no longer a trader... These are smart people.. The Fed can not ignore them and Kaplan of Dallas has been on point.

We could go further... And our view today is that Powell will try to walk the line... But within a 24 hours the market will make a move... We are going to repeat what we said last week that a colleague/historian of recent rates markets wrote...

The potential for disappointment is huge. Either bond longs believe there are recessionary tendencies on the horizon or they think the Fed will pursue QE-infinity. Bond market participants may be whistling past the economic numbers today...but I would bet the Fed is not. Even if Powell just concedes they are "talking about tapering" , the swings in yields may be significant. Example?...From March 2017 to September 2017 the 10YR Note yield fell from 2.63% to 2.06%...but by Feb 2018 it was back above 2.95%, eventually topping out at 3.23% in October 2018...and the inflation data was not nearly as draconian as it is today.

Powell is walking through land mines today...lets hope he does not misstep

How Scott Redler prepares each day. Also some other good tidbits.