ClutchCityAg said:

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FJ43 said:

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ClutchCityAg said:

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FJ43 said:

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ClutchCityAg said:

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FJ, have you tried using the book trader on IBKR when doing scalps? I have been experimenting with it on paper trading and I really love it for scalping futures or shares but haven't tried it with options yet. But I just love the visual of the price ladder and histogram side by side with the live orderbook. Being able to see the large orders come in on the bids/asks give some nice context to the levels I am watching.

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I I sure haven't. I'll have to check that out though. The other thing I need to spend time on is the bracket order & algo settings.

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Check out this guy's channel on youtube. He has great videos on orderflow trading in general, plus some videos specific to IBKR settings.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCz4hZwlhjYM3DQTxV***AeA

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Tried it but link doesn't lead anywhere?

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https://www.youtube.com/c/VerrilloTrading/videos

Try this instead

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I've seen that guy! Yes he is one of the go to guys when it comes to IBKR videos. I've watched a number of them and need to devote more time. He can sure help shortcut some things.

Absolutely horrible closes on GOOGL yesterday and today.

AggieChemist said:

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bigtoneag said:

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Very cool. Thanks for sharing. I found my grandfather's WWII draft registration card.

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I disappeared down that rabbit hole for a couple hours. Grandfather's WW2 card, Great grandfather's WW1 card, several union and confederate soldiers up the line and the handwritten report of my great-great-great-great-great grandfather being shot, tomahawked and scalped by indians near the Susquehanna river during the Revolutionary war.

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That's really cool because I'm a history nerd but I'd delete the confederate part of your post. You'll probably have some SJW POS try to dox you and ruin your life and career.

I expect a pull back to 417-416 on SPY next week.

I just summarized my last two months Debits and Credits from options

Basically from selling covered calls and playing around with a few Call buys from OA

March Credit - $4,535 Debits $2,238
April Credit - $4,726 Debits $2,898


Big thanks to RKT option hitting big (15X profit)...But nice ways to make some free money selling covered calls
Excited to see what happened in May when the account summary comes out

Socialism Sucks said:

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A ton of December call buying on MBIO

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So what do they know that we don't? Something caused the volume spike.

KT 90 said:

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Socialism Sucks said:

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A ton of December call buying on MBIO

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So what do they know that we don't? Something caused the volume spike.

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I did find this, PT of $11

$MBIO was recently given a price target of $11 by BTIG. Has has 3 inside days in a row now. Will be presenting at a conference June 11. Big move coming !

— Capital Trading (@CapTrading100) May 25, 2021

Thanks! I'm playing pretty tight these days but have hit a couple homers lately

What are you seeing Ragoo? Saw lots of SPY puts come in late on OF for next week... big $.

Crypto down a lot as well

Since it's the weekend I'll give this another spin.
Assuming ragoo's wrong and next week doesn't suck, any advice on the below? Tia...

NRD09 said:

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Strategy question:
Crwd reports Thursday june 3. I have a couple june 11 210 and 215 calls left at net free +++ from selling half and thinking about the best way to capitalize.
Original thought was to just sell another half on the next bump and hold the remaining through er.
Next thought was to sell higher strike calls on half or all on the next bump to create a spread
Now it just occurred to me that i could sell something silly like 250s for june 4 to harvest premium, then sell june 11s against them again after those expire.
Thoughts?

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I personally don't hold through earnings.

If you do hold through earnings I would consider which strategy is most effective based on direction you think the stock will go. I can't see how CRWD has reacted at prior earnings, but if you're holding through, remember that the premium/IV is raised to represent the expected move.

My go to earnings trades are 1) selling an iron condor or iron fly, sometimes a straddle, 2) doing a call credit spread or put credit spread. You make money with neutral in these. I do weeklies for these, though, because I want to get out the next morning.

If you do a call debit spread you have to beat the expected move. On your strategy, I would sell the June 11 to start because there will be vol crush after earnings if you get a move within the expected move.

Remember earnings is binary. A trader can't predict what will happen, but you could be brilliant in hindsight. Personally if I'm up on the trade, I normally walk or leave one runner.

I think United rentals will probably blow out earnings. I'm seeing their equipment everywhere

Quote:

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My go to earnings trades are 1) selling an iron condor or iron fly

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Let me guess. In after 230 and out before 9?

Assuming yes this is a nice reminder that there aren't a lot of new ideas here. Figure out the best play for the situation and go make some money.

Yes. Sometimes I'll let it go a little bit if I'm in the profit zone but not at the target yet. Once it starts to go past the profit window, I'm out.

After doing multiple hundreds of earnings trades, it's almost always best to get out the next morning before 9.

Awesome thanks guys, i guess my thought on the last strategy was to harvest premium by selling the june 4 250 or whatever call and hope it gets crushed by the numbers and/or macro, then wherever it settles after earnings, sell atm june 11 calls and collect the delta at expiry. Getting paid 3x seems nice...

Do what your strategy is. I'm just pointing out that earnings is binary. To quote John Carter: "plan for it to not work out"

To 30k's point. Earnings is opportunity for volatility. Just looking at the chart I would be exiting the win. Currently at the top of the channel/box. Probability is a sell off after earnings.

In fact I may take the 220/210 put spread contrarian play.

cageybee77 said:

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one thing that I learned this week is (and I'd read it before but it didn't "click") that if you're stressing about a position, you're holding too many shares in it......

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Yes. Luckily position sizing is something I've gotten better at. I'm just bad about throwing all 100% of my appropriate position size into a trade instead of taking a starter.

Ragoo said:

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In fact I may take the 220/210 put spread contrarian play.

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I agree with you guys technically, but I'm probably too emotionally involved with crwd in that i believe in the company and product and they just continue to deliver and gain market share. If we see 220 after earnings it'll be a quick shake at most, imo
Regardless it's all gravy for me at this point so I'm willing to take on a bit more risk

For us beginners, "confidence" is a thing we will perhaps attain some time in the future. I suspect a perfect "set-up" will fail to completely protect against unpredictable bad news. And, unless we are speaking about ETF's, larger position sizes might be a hindrance to increased diversity.

Ragoo said:

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Position size is a myth, IMO. Size should be weighted entirely on confidence in the setup. Furthermore - fewer confident setups is more advantageous than many less confident setups.

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This. Especially if day trading.

Confidence changes with experience.

When I first started I would just roll my whole account into a swing. Win or lose I had no idea. When I started scalping I couldn't put 100 shares on without full on fear. But now that number is much higher.

That said, there is still a point of fear. There always will be. But confidence in the setup should negate the fear. As will proper risk management on those setups.

interesting take and would be a deeper pullback than what some think. I'm with Ragoo though.

Expecting volatility to return to S&P500 next week…

My line in sand is 4221. Now 4203.

My bearish targets are 4060-4100 by next Friday. $QQQ 322 may be tested . Now 334. #ES_F $SPX $NDX $SPY $TSLA $ADA $AMC $GME $BBBY $SNDL $AAPL $ZM $TLRY $CGC $QQQ

— emini tic (@TicTocTick) May 29, 2021