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FJ43
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 5:17a, 5/7/21
irish pete ag06 said:
FJ43 said:
irish pete ag06 said:
They say trade what's in front of you. I've been locked in on small caps too much, so trying to dip my toe into looking for call or put options of large and mega caps trading in a channel.

Looking at microsoft... please any of you elders scrolls please point out something to me that's dumb.

On the daily MSFT has tested the blue (34/50) ribbon and rebounded each time since COVID crash.

I like those long wicks at the bottom of the daily touching the 34/50 too.

On the weekly I MSFT has rebounded each time it's dipped into the green ribbon (8/13). I've drawn channel lines to help pick a strike.


Gonna attempt to enter into the $270 calls for JUN in the morning for 1.25. Looking for a triple, stop loss set at .75.

Looks like a nice set up from a phone anyway. Maybe a helpful tip.

Draw a decending trend line on the daily from the exact price at top of top candle down to the top of lowest candle before today and extend it. Broke that trend line today. But Confirm it breaks the trend line back up before entry and not a false breakout. I also then do the same but an hourly chart and down to 10 min chart to confirm. You may get a move down tomorrow below todays close then reclaim it for entry.

Also give the ATR a check and see what it reclaimed after today's close. .
Cool. Thanks for sharing. Does this look right?
Daily


Hours and 10 min line added... this is on the 10 min chart.


Also touched and rose back up above -1 ATR today on the daily
Yep exactly. I scalped MSFT options yesterday on weeklies on that break in trend line but didn't take it long. If I was going long I would be confirming a back test of the 248.50 level which should be new support. Options at that entry level would be my personal target entry.

Unless of course it just takes off.

Here is my MSFT chart intraday yesterday and I added my entry and exit on options expiring today. Probably left some on the table but exited into momentum before close when didn't continue to my next resistance level. My stop or exit was breaking that trend line to the downside. Also an image of the late day call flow expiring today. Someone thinks this goes up today.


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FJ43
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5:46a, 5/7/21

2 charts similar to what Irish Pete is working on MSFT. Jobs numbers today so depending on how those look could make these in play or not.

AMZN
GOOGL




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BrokeAssAggie
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6:08a, 5/7/21
OA is really taking this "go away in May" serious.
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FJ43
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 6:36a, 5/7/21
CrazyRichAggie said:
OA is really taking this "go away in May" serious.
Figure he has taught us to fish now seeing if we can.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:39a, 5/7/21
FJ43 said:
CrazyRichAggie said:
OA is really taking this "go away in May" serious.
Figure he has taught us to fish now seeing if we can.


Maybe he is reading along and taking notes on what topics need to be covered and/or revisited in the next seminar.
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FJ43
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 6:50a, 5/7/21
Have no doubt
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jimmo
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6:53a, 5/7/21
wondering about Redler's #630 club?
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to jimmo • 6:57a, 5/7/21
jimmo said:
wondering about Redler's #630 club?


He never does Friday. Not sure what happened yesterday
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FJ43
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In reply to jimmo • 6:57a, 5/7/21
jimmo said:
wondering about Redler's #630 club?
Not on Friday's. Yesterday his Twitter was hacked so moved it to 8:45. Friday he just sends out a Motiversity message usually.
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jimmo
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7:01a, 5/7/21
thanks FJ
guess i missed the update yesterday..
(and forgot about no video Friday's )
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McInnis 03
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7:16a, 5/7/21
AG
I feel like the Russell is due for a bounce....

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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:19a, 5/7/21
Does he have a new Twitter name?
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McInnis 03
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 7:20a, 5/7/21
AG
CrazyRichAggie said:
Does he have a new Twitter name?
@RedDogT3
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McInnis 03
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7:21a, 5/7/21
AG
Expecting the futures to get jiggy with NFP's coming out in 10 min
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 7:23a, 5/7/21
McInnis 03 said:
CrazyRichAggie said:
Does he have a new Twitter name?
@RedDogT3


That's the one that was hacked. He hasn't twitted in over a day
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FJ43
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7:33a, 5/7/21
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Copa515
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7:33a, 5/7/21
AG
Shh... Try not to scare it. But Fruit is running. Can it get over 133 today? Asking for a friend.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:34a, 5/7/21
AG
Jobs suck and tech soars.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 7:36a, 5/7/21
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Is gold a commodity? If so, opinion please.
Ugh, shoulda swung some overnight.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:37a, 5/7/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Jobs suck and tech soars.
More free money, more spending
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cageybee77
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7:37a, 5/7/21
AG
Headfake methinks - gonna wait and see
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:38a, 5/7/21
AG
This could gap and fail.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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FJ43
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 7:39a, 5/7/21
McInnis 03 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Jobs suck and tech soars.
More free money, more spending
Print money, hand it out for 'free', people don't want to work. Sad.

What do we expect.
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cageybee77
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7:40a, 5/7/21
AG
Futures dropping like a stone atm


Edit - freaking yoyo
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McInnis 03
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7:46a, 5/7/21
AG

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Red Red Wine
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7:46a, 5/7/21
AG
Any techie's have thoughts on NOK:

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Red Red Wine
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7:48a, 5/7/21
AG
Wait. So the jobs report is a huge miss and the Nasdaq spikes UP like a motha????
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BrokeAssAggie
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7:48a, 5/7/21
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Brewmaster
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:52a, 5/7/21
AG
I think SHOP's chart is very similar to AMZN and GOOG as well. I don't plan on holding any of it though, maybe a lotto today if something looks good.

I have had good luck on SPY verticals, buying out a week or a little more (puts at highs/ resistance or calls a little above support on reversal. It has also been easier to balance these and real work than intraday scalping.
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Thundergon
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7:54a, 5/7/21
Well today just got a whole lot trickier
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jimmo
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In reply to Copa515 • 7:55a, 5/7/21
Copa515 said:
Shh... Try not to scare it. But Fruit is running. Can it get over 133 today? Asking for a friend.
Saw a headline that Cathie reduced her her fruit holdings
so there's your catalyst?
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McInnis 03
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 7:56a, 5/7/21
AG
McInnis 03 said:
I feel like the Russell is due for a bounce....

Take a look at the Nonfarm payroll shake'n'bake......../ES approached Fader's pivot at about 4195.25 and then reverted up to 4214.......now we consolidate at 4207-4209.......I'd watch for a move back to the pivot here at the open.....
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austinAG90
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7:56a, 5/7/21
AG
Late Friday's Macros

Markets Coiling For a Big Move On NonFarm...Will They Be Disappointed

Going into the last hour before the expected whopper of a non farm payroll number ,the markets, especially bonds, are expecting a large move... The expectation is for 1 mm new jobs, with a whisper number 10% higher... But the ranges are very wide... And the other numbers, both the employment rate and the average hourly earnings , will have to be scrutinized... We have 3 scenarios

1) The Bull/Hawk case... Jefferies has the biggest number, either they are on to something or they just have the wrong country... Their numbers are 2.1 million with the fear that they may be too low... We see the high case as 1.5mm or higher, with the likes of GS and Nomura at 1.3... Treasuries sell off to 1.64, and if they do not hold then 1.68 and then to the years highs of 1.75... Does this mean we are off to the races to higher yields?... No... Too much uncertainty out there for a sustaining sell off in rates for now..

2) The Base case..1mm... Some sell off initially as the string of what Powell wants continues... 1.64-1.52 range... Go to higher yields then a bid develops... If 1.52 can be broken then 1.47 is the next level... Similar with 5 years , key close is .78, through that then the "ground hog" day event of 6 more weeks of winter, meaning ranging to lower rates.

3)... What if everyone has it wrong and the number is 500 or less... Doubtful, but rates will be off to the races of lower yields. 10 year will have 1.20 in its sights...Equities won't like it initially, but lower yields will put a bid back into the growth stocks... Again not likely.

There has been a strong wager in the options market targeting a much more hawkish move in the markets that is set to expire after Jackson Hole...BB calculates that the notional amount of the wager is over 40 billion currently. Here the strategy is that two more rate hikes will be built in as inflation and the economy soar.

Fed...only one speaker today along with Yellen and Biden, both talking about the economy... Yellen has become more interesting lately with her honesty or gaffe comments earlier this week... She has to nuance her view of the economy towards sparking a move to higher rates...nonetheless, the Fed is aware of and monitoring closely bubbles in the markets...in its financial stability report published last night it highlighted risks in IPOs, Spacs, and Meme stocks as some of the most risky areas.. This is as close as the Fed gets to using the word BUBBLE, and we now know what Powell meant by "Frothy"... One would think frothy would cause the Fed to take the pedal off the metal, but that does not seem where they are headed for now.

Demand for Credit remains strong..7 borrowers priced 6.2 billion yesterday bringing the weeks take to about 25 billion. In Junk, where CCC are yielding 5.95, 1.8 billion was priced yesterday... And overnight we saw over 450mm offers wanted in the long end of the corporate market. The buyers are not going away, which is why we see no collapse in the equity markets... But the likes of the high fliers, using ARKK, as a benchmark... Off 17% from 4/26 and off 33% from Mid February, certainly is painful for those in Cathy Woods funds, which is part and parcel why outflows are high...

Buckle up... The next two hours will see fireworks... Good luck.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 7:57a, 5/7/21
AG
CrazyRichAggie said:

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austinAG90
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7:58a, 5/7/21
AG
Wow...What a Surprise...How Could Economists Get it So Wrong

Glad we had a scenario 3... Off to the races with lower yields...5 year through .78 and 10 years through 1.52.. 1.47 is the next level... Then 1.42... 1.20 now in sights... Will update again after we see a stabilization
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