I haven't really had time to look at new setups today. I'll see what I like tomorrow after the open.

Remember that biotech does its best between May and October.

Morning all...

Things starting mostly green across the board early.

Let's hope May starts us off right today and we can make some hay before any cooling off.

Think we have some test of the 416.30s range again on SPY at some point. 8 Day is about 417.35 and +1 ATR is about 416. 21 Day is down at 414 range.

Let's go!

Trade wisely...

QQQ isn't just for Friday's anymore

Today is the first Monday $QQQ expiration, with open interest fairly light. Longer term these new expirations could intensify the gamma dynamic in Nasdaq, bringing it more in sync with S&P. pic.twitter.com/ow6D0q4itr

— spotgamma (@spotgamma) May 3, 2021

Keeping an eye on $X today.

Feels like ready for breakout to $27.60+ range.

Monday Macros
Treasuries Yields Marginally Higher...Equities Start New Month Higher

Japan, China, and London were all closed overnight for various holidays... Treasury trading was nonexistent until 6 am this morning... Yields are marginally higher as the end of April was dominated by asset reallocations and duration extensions... Now treasuries are on their own, and the big question is whether they start to move towards 2% 10 years between now and the next Fed meeting in June... We think they will make that move... There are 7 Fed speakers this week, including Powell today and Kaplan twice... Powell's topic today does not look like it will be that economic specific, but Q+A will allow some questions about the economy... We already know what he is thinking, let rates stay low for the foreseeable future and monetize the debt...Kaplan, on the other hand, broke the taboo last week and said that we need to be thinking about tapering now... Kaplan has two more shots to talk about it again this week... As for tapering, we expect to see it from the Bank of England this week after seeing it from the Bank of Canada last week... It is coming sooner that the Powell camp wants...

Inflation... It is here and growing... Tips numbers show 2 year real numbers show a 2.84% inflation... 10 year a 2.4.. As that narrows that will mitigate the transitory talk... But look at what Buffet said at his annual meeting over the weekend..in his latest annual meeting he warned about rising price pressures and a "buying frenzy" spurred by low interest rates... And he went on to say "there is more inflation that people would have anticipated six months ago"... Hertz and other car companies, who sold massive amount of their fleets, are now in buying used cars because they can not get new cars for their fleets due to the chip shortage.. The Manheim used car index is up 52% over the last year... And all rental companies are in there buying... Guess who is paying for this? The renters... Another big inflation impact

Economy... Atlanta Fed GDP for the second quarter is back over 10%... MS has it as 9.6%... You get the idea... It is strong... And this weeks non farm payroll number expectation has already soared to 978,000... We think it will be much more than 1 mm as more people continue to get called back to work... Our early number is 1.25 mm but we could be low, and we think the next number in June will be even higher...retail establishments we use continue to complain about lack of workers...and some close certain days because there are not enough people to work...at the right wage levels people will reenter the economy and that will be another piece of the inflation pie

Questions that friends of ours continue to ask us... On bonds, if things are as bad as we think, why are 10 years not already at 2% or even higher?... And does that not mean that the rates markets are looking past the spike in economic numbers to the Powell explanation of transitory?.. Good point...we argue that it is the degree of change that markets are not pricing in, and that the big numbers will continue... But we do not see significantly higher rates above 2% 10 years and the Fed will start to talk tapering over the summer...either June or August, which will flatten the curve... But not yet...they will be taken out to the woodshed first... The other question we get is why equities are not doing better given the strong earnings numbers and outlook?... Equities are expensive... And if you look at the tea leaves, the largest companies, like Apple, Amazon and Microsoft are decreasing in sizes of the S+P as the rotation to value and smaller stocks continue... Either way, the Biden stimulus, whether it be another 4 trillion, or more like half of that, is additive, especially if it gets paid for by the Fed buying 120 billion a month of treasuries and mortgages... Do we really need the mortgage purchases?.. They will taper.

The month of May is generally a good one for bonds and a bad one for equities... It will not start out that way, but we are not sure how it ends... Again, high valuations are not reasons for trend changes... And even though we see High Yield valuations starting to widen... The Fed is still there to back stop for now...

PLTR hit 23.48 on the overnight and quickly retreated........that 23.47-23.48 level is set in stone right now. Someone is NOT going down with a really prolonged fight. Catalyst needed.

CrazyRichAggie said:

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CLOV looking good

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lets go get $15 this month