sts7049 said:
LOYAL AG said:
cageybee77 said:
She can continue to buy "losers" in sufficient quantity to help them to not be. Must be nice!
PLTR volume still isn't sufficient to lead the price higher. One of the studies I use is On Balance Volume which is explained pretty well at OBV Investopedia
The key passage on that page is
Quote:
The theory behind OBV is based on the distinction between smart money namely, institutional investors and less sophisticated retail investors. As mutual funds and pension funds begin to buy into an issue that retail investors are selling, volume may increase even as the price remains relatively level. Eventually, volume drives the price upward. At that point, larger investors begin to sell, and smaller investors begin buying.
Below is PLTR for the past year by day. OBV is the yellow line that's kind of random. Look back at October when the OBV well above the candles and eventually the price soared. What you see here is what you see in a chart where volume is about to lead to a price movement. Right now we see OBV well below the candles which indicates that we aren't seeing sufficient volume from institutional money right now to drive that price up.
OBV isn't a perfect indicator, none are, but I've looked at this on a lot of charts over time and when you see a price soar that separation is there and noticeable. it's one of my go to tools for weekly covered calls as you can watch it lead the price up over the span of a few weeks and make consistent premium and/or price increases on those stocks.
interesting. so when i look at GSAT as an example of something i am waiting to move up to get out of these damn calls i bought...i see OBV is quite a bit above the candles. so maybe there is some hope??
I look at OBV two ways:
1. It's a cumulative measurement so huge volume spikes take time to be smoothed out. Those massive spikes in early February still matter. For this reason people will tell you it's somewhat prone to false positives.
2. It's a study that confirms whatever movement is happening so here I could argue that it's confirming this sell off.
OBV is limited to confirming a price movement and that's what I see in GSAT. For PLTR what I'm looking at is a price that seems to be establishing support around $21 and at this level OBV is telling me that there isn't sufficient interest to move the price much either way. What I'm expecting to see from here is the OBV line to move up over the candles which will signal the return of smart money and as a result we're going to see price begin to climb. Cathie's continued purchases of PLTR would seem to confirm that expectation as she would fall into the smart money category.
Right now with GSAT it looks to me like we're confirming the sell off still and may be some time away from establishing support. I would be looking for OBV to come back down below the candle line before I believed we'd found that support.
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