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Ragoo
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6:50p, 4/7/21
AG
Someone tell me why selling an $APPS may iron condor 60p/75p/85c/100c is a bad idea.
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Ornithopter
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 7:49p, 4/7/21
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Cathie with another pltr 1 mm buy


And PLTR still dropped on a day 32M shares were traded. Yikes.
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agdaddy04
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In reply to Ornithopter • 8:04p, 4/7/21
AG
This is what I don't get about price action.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to agdaddy04 • 8:12p, 4/7/21
agdaddy04 said:
This is what I don't get about price action.

When you buy or sell any stock, you'll notice some difference between the bid price and the ask price. For very liquid stocks it's so small it's negligible, but there is some there. You could decide to use limit orders and only buy at the bid and only sell at the ask. Eventually the buyers or sellers, or both, will have to capitulate and come down on their asking prices to sell or up on their bid prices to buy (or use "market order" which does this automatically) in order for the stock to change hands. If there's more pressure to sell then the sellers will tend to capitulate more in order to get rid of their shares and the price goes down. If there's more pressure to buy then the buyers will have to capitulate to add shares and the price will go up.
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SF2004
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:19p, 4/7/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
SF2004 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
SF2004 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I had 3150 options and 3150/3100 put credit spreads
I was on the other side of your trade... now looking back I realize why my trade was bad and what you say at that level.

Only cost me 4 bills but still learning.

Back to lurking.
what trade did you take and why?
On 3/26 sold a bear credit call spread at 3150/3155 expiring on 4/9.

The underlying was south of all three SMA (20,50, 200) averages I watch and thought it would have strong resistance reclaiming those by 4/9.

Now I see that when I sold the call it was touching the south Bollinger band.

Blew right past all three so I am trying to figure out what else I missed.
I can see why you took that trade and it would have worked the prior two times you tried to short at the 200 SMA. The question to ask yourself going forward is "should I short from here?" and "is this a high probability setup?". You entered a short below the mean for a credit that was below +1 ATR. You should always expect a stock to move between -1 and +1 ATR. The place to short from is +2 or +3 ATR for high probability or from the mean if you believe it will reject (but you need to get out if you are wrong). Based on where you shorted, I'm guessing your premium was $1.80 or less on a 5 wide spread.

Amazon was also in a squeeze and the indexes were starting to rally.
Thanks for taking the time to respond.

I see multiple issues with the trade now (hindsight is 20/20).

The biggest issue is as McInnis said, I should have noticed I was on the wrong end and cut out instead of just letting it run a few more days.
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Jet Black
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:23p, 4/7/21
Didn't she buy a bunch of FUBO too?
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Ragoo • 9:26p, 4/7/21
AG
Ragoo said:
Someone tell me why selling an $APPS may iron condor 60p/75p/85c/100c is a bad idea.


What's the premium for that? I would personally probably do 95/105 and 65/55 if premium was good.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Ragoo
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:36p, 4/7/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Ragoo said:
Someone tell me why selling an $APPS may iron condor 60p/75p/85c/100c is a bad idea.


What's the premium for that? I would personally probably do 95/105 and 65/55 if premium was good.
$8 and change
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Diggity
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In reply to Jet Black • 11:39p, 4/7/21
AG
To be fair, she thought she was buying FUBU
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:48a, 4/8/21
AG
I wonder if we are going to get a pit bull low today / Friday
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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FJ43
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4:17a, 4/8/21

Mornun!

Yep they are up. SPY (touching over 408) & Qs (touching over 334) premarket higher.

Fruit premarket at $128.73. Is today the day fruit reaches above 130 to 130.65+? Who knows maybe long candle to $133. Please let it be so.

Still expecting some backtest here at some point. Would make me feel better anyways but until then.... trade the trend.

Let's go!



Trade wisely!

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FJ43
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5:35a, 4/8/21
Ummmmm.....

Fruit at $129.13

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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 5:48a, 4/8/21
FJ43 said:
Ummmmm.....

Fruit at $129.13

It dropped below $129 right after your post.

If it goes red, we're going to code red your ass Pvt. Pyle style when you go to sleep.
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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 5:52a, 4/8/21
Prognightmare said:
FJ43 said:
Ummmmm.....

Fruit at $129.13

It dropped below $129 right after your post.

If it goes red, we're going to code red your ass Pvt. Pyle style when you go to sleep.
I have been careful not to call it by name for fear of retaliation.

Will be interesting to see if this leads today.
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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 5:57a, 4/8/21
Just in case, everyone buy a big bar of soap and have a towel handy for when FJ goes to sleep.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to ProgN • 6:00a, 4/8/21
AG
Prognightmare said:
FJ43 said:
Ummmmm.....

Fruit at $129.13

It dropped below $129 right after your post.

If it goes red, we're going to code red your ass Pvt. Pyle style when you go to sleep.


I'll hit first with the green hammer
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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ProgN
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 6:02a, 4/8/21
FJ43
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 6:04a, 4/8/21
McInnis 03 said:
Prognightmare said:
FJ43 said:
Ummmmm.....

Fruit at $129.13

It dropped below $129 right after your post.

If it goes red, we're going to code red your ass Pvt. Pyle style when you go to sleep.


I'll hit first with the green hammer
If you could smack UPWK with your green hammer I'd appreciate it.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:12a, 4/8/21
FJ43 said:
McInnis 03 said:
Prognightmare said:
FJ43 said:
Ummmmm.....

Fruit at $129.13

It dropped below $129 right after your post.

If it goes red, we're going to code red your ass Pvt. Pyle style when you go to sleep.


I'll hit first with the green hammer
If you could smack UPWK with your green hammer I'd appreciate it.


Me too!
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Ragoo
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6:20a, 4/8/21
AG
Over trading strikes again.

I had roku put credit spreads sold at 4.70 and bought them back at 2.90 yesterday. Today they would be almost nothing.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Ragoo • 6:23a, 4/8/21
What strikes? Just out of curiosity.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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6:26a, 4/8/21
AG
At least you didn't sell your fruit 124 weekly on Monday that you bought for .99 at close thurs
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Ragoo
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 6:29a, 4/8/21
AG
Tomas Hermensa said:
What strikes? Just out of curiosity.
350/320

I was really really busy yesterday and when it flashed down to 357 I bought them back.
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cageybee77
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 6:38a, 4/8/21
AG
She can continue to buy "losers" in sufficient quantity to help them to not be. Must be nice!
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FJ43
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7:23a, 4/8/21

UEC

I've traded this one in and out since Feb and will reenter and also angle in long today.

  • Buying shares and will sell a portion on any decent spike to reduce cost basis towards net free. Positioned sized stop.
  • Selling May or maybe Aug $3 Puts
  • Buying May $3.50 Calls



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McInnis 03
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:36a, 4/8/21
AG
FJ43 said:
McInnis 03 said:
Prognightmare said:
FJ43 said:
Ummmmm.....

Fruit at $129.13

It dropped below $129 right after your post.

If it goes red, we're going to code red your ass Pvt. Pyle style when you go to sleep.


I'll hit first with the green hammer
If you could smack UPWK with your green hammer I'd appreciate it.

***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to cageybee77 • 7:41a, 4/8/21
AG
cageybee77 said:
She can continue to buy "losers" in sufficient quantity to help them to not be. Must be nice!
PLTR volume still isn't sufficient to lead the price higher. One of the studies I use is On Balance Volume which is explained pretty well at OBV Investopedia

The key passage on that page is

Quote:
The theory behind OBV is based on the distinction between smart money namely, institutional investors and less sophisticated retail investors. As mutual funds and pension funds begin to buy into an issue that retail investors are selling, volume may increase even as the price remains relatively level. Eventually, volume drives the price upward. At that point, larger investors begin to sell, and smaller investors begin buying.
Below is PLTR for the past year by day. OBV is the yellow line that's kind of random. Look back at October when the OBV well above the candles and eventually the price soared. What you see here is what you see in a chart where volume is about to lead to a price movement. Right now we see OBV well below the candles which indicates that we aren't seeing sufficient volume from institutional money right now to drive that price up.

OBV isn't a perfect indicator, none are, but I've looked at this on a lot of charts over time and when you see a price soar that separation is there and noticeable. it's one of my go to tools for weekly covered calls as you can watch it lead the price up over the span of a few weeks and make consistent premium and/or price increases on those stocks.



A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
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LOYAL AG
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8:00a, 4/8/21
AG
I don't do a lot of naked options but I'm tempted by fruit's set up right now. It looks like it's going to open around resistance and from there we could see $135 pretty easily. Eyeing 4/23 $135c for probably $.65. Probably hold it for a week or til it's ATM, whichever comes first. Would love some feedback from some of the more frequent naked option guys here.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:00a, 4/8/21
Nice!
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oldarmy1
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8:02a, 4/8/21
AG
Bought 7 figures in shares of SNDL for the long haul. It will do whatever it will do short term but $1.50 for an almost certain eventual ROI is worth parking some cash. And if I want to do it ultra-conservative I could get covered calls out a ways at $1.50 for close to $0.50 and net $2.

These are the times to make your big accumulation decisions.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 8:04a, 4/8/21
AG
LOYAL AG said:
I don't do a lot of naked options but I'm tempted by fruit's set up right now. It looks like it's going to open around resistance and from there we could see $135 pretty easily. Eyeing 4/23 $135c for probably $.65. Probably hold it for a week or til it's ATM, whichever comes first. Would love some feedback from some of the more frequent naked option guys here.
I bought way more 130c's for next Friday than I normally ever do. The setup is really really really nice.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:07a, 4/8/21
AG
McInnis 03 said:
LOYAL AG said:
I don't do a lot of naked options but I'm tempted by fruit's set up right now. It looks like it's going to open around resistance and from there we could see $135 pretty easily. Eyeing 4/23 $135c for probably $.65. Probably hold it for a week or til it's ATM, whichever comes first. Would love some feedback from some of the more frequent naked option guys here.
I bought way more 130c's for next Friday than I normally ever do. The setup is really really really nice.
I looked at those as well actually. My thought process was really just more time and a lower premium. I feel like 5% in a week from where it is isn't a big movement.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 8:09a, 4/8/21
AG
I had seen them mentioned all day yesterday and on that dip near the end of the day I saw them in the $.8x's and I was like "WTF?! LET'S GO!"
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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austinAG90
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8:10a, 4/8/21
AG
Masters Thursday Macros

Fed Intransigence to Rate Moves, Forces Belly Higher...Powell at Noon

The Fed minutes along with the speeches and interviews by Evans, Kaplan and Brainard, have forced some of the 2022 and 2023 rate hikes to be cut back by the market... We have seen some short covering and the belly, specifically the 5 year, has outperformed both on an outright basis and a relative basis...the bear trend has been broken for now and we could see 5 years rally to the .80 level, and maybe to .75, before the rising rate trend reestablishes itself next week with coupon supply... Still not sure why both the 3 year and 10 year are being auctioned Monday, as we see no holiday reasons... But someone will alert us.

Overnight markets are better led by the Nasdaq and Russell... The Nasdaq started rising out of the chute in Asia and peaked at 2 am, when Europe opened, and again at 6.30 am when NY started to come in... Here it is the reemergence of the Fed dovish call staying pat until they see the whites of the eyes of inflation... It is coming... More supply chains continued to get pushed out... One of our colleagues pointed out that LCD Display prices and Semiconductor chip lead times "may creating a synthetic limit to technological disinflationary forces".. Semiconductor supplier lead times for display driver chips has surpassed the 2018 highs at greater than 15 weeks, while LCD prices have risen 300% in the last 18 months...this is one of many stories in the coming inflation front of expected statistics... This will awake the Fed... But it is not today's trade.

Another colleague is predicting a "copper super-cycle". They are expecting solid copper demand due to intensive decarbonization related investments, including the electrification of vehicles and the build out of the renewable energy grid...

Rates... Clearly we have been in the same range for 10 years and bonds for some time...hopefully we can break that range with supply next week... For today we see resistance on 10 years at 1.625 and then at 1.58... Support is at 1.72 and then at 1.77, the latter we do not expect before next week...as for the long bond, we have 2.39 support and 2.28 resistance... 5 year for now has broken its recent bear trend with .81 resistance and the potential to grind towards .75

Equities have room to move up...April is still the best month for positive moves... And looks like we will see that again today as the Fed continues to press the dovish mantra... But the attached chart and the WSJ article about soaring margin loans are worrisome... https://on.wsj.com/31XTq3E could their be more leveraged Archegos situations to come out of the Blue?
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cageybee77
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 8:11a, 4/8/21
AG
I'm assuming volume and "interest in the stock" are related. The question I have about PLTR is: how long can it go without posting the expected profits before investors lose interest in it? Especially since there a kazillion other places to put one's money. I'm also wondering as to whether there has been a credible projection about when the company will be sustainably profitable.
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