added NIO friday... they forgot the crypto plays... BTC was 53k market close Friday, now it is 56k. Even if it stays at 56, that's a nice litle bump in most btc names.

Would someone please explain to me selling Puts like I'm a small child. I understand selling covered calls. I'm usually decently OTM so I keep my shares. Wondering how to be similar with puts.

trip98 said:

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Fubo subscriber after having been on youtube tv....same price point .....only getting 50% of the sweet sixteen games on fubo!!
If the whole allure of fubo is in the future being able to bet they are missing out big time on one of most heavily bet sporting events

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I haven't see any real news on FUBO's massive drop lately so I kind of think this is what's dragging it down right now, the fact that it can't deliver on it's brand promise right here, right now. This has to be solved in the next 12 months. That aside once the tournament is over if they have baseball and football betting available then we'll see the price start climbing again. As for timing I think unless you're already in I'd wait until after the Final 4.

I'll be interested to see what FUBO does tomorrow.

Do you guys expect a nasdaq pop soon?

LOYAL AG said:

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Bullish. I think this past week was a result of quad witching as much as anything. Most of what I was in was having a good Friday/week until it was time to pin and shake out the suckers. Take a look at INTC over the final two hours of the day for a prime example. It approached $65 multiple times before cratering to close to $64 then ultimately closing slightly below $64. Why? Both of those had volume over 30k and no other strike was close. I think we saw a lot of prices "held down" through Friday close. Tomorrow I'll post a week S&P500 with the Fib I keep referencing. We've been dancing around that 2/16 high for several weeks but to me the trend keeps looking bullish. IMO had this week not been 3/19 we'd have seen a rally away from that level.

Edit: SP from mobile. Not as easy to read but I don't see this as a bearish chart. We retraced a bit from the big week of 3/12.

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Update from last week's post above. I'm still referencing the Fib I drew about five weeks ago that stretches from late October lows to what at the time was the ATH on 2/16. This is relevant until we establish a pattern either way with regard to 2/16. A brief recap of my thoughts each week since the beginning of March had me feeling good about what was effectively a Doji the week of 3/5. Going into 3/12 I was expecting a small gap down and a small green for the week and instead got a flat Monday open and a large green week. With that backdrop I'm not real surprised the week of 3/19 was a mildly negative week, it was a retrace of the large week prior. Well that and price manipulation from quad witching. That brings me to last week.

Reminder this is a weekly chart. Right now I'm feeling like I got confirmation of my bullish perspective heading into last week. It is worth noting that the week wasn't particularly bullish until Friday PM and the furious close but still from a weekly perspective this looks bullish to me. We had a substantial move past that 3947 level we've been tethered to the prior five weeks. I think this coming week we're going to see a much smaller but still green candle as we bump up against the psychological barrier of 4000 but fail to break through this week. My guess is we close around 3990 for the week.

BobFriend13 said:

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Would someone please explain to me selling Puts like I'm a small child.

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In my family, that's called "Explain it to me Barney Style."

Based on the close Friday if we are green tomorrow we are wide open to 400 and the 2ATR line.

Selling a put is a good strategy if you think the stock is going up and want to collect the premium. Alternatively, a put can be used to lock in an entry price below the current price. I like to use puts when I think a stock is overvalued. You can sell a put at the strike price you want to buy at. If the stock drops below your strike, you get the stock at the price you wanted. If it doesn't drop, you collect the premium.

For example, sell at Jan2022 AAPL 115 P for $1250. If AAPL goes up, you keep the $1250. If AAPL goes down below $115, you have to buy 100 shares for $115. As long as the stock price is over $102.50 when you get assigned, you make money.

Sell puts if you're bullish
Buy puts if you're bearish

I think the Nasdaq has bottomed. Really a great close and a confirmed reversal on the daily. the weekly chart is right between the 8 and 21, so that's positive. Assuming we get positive continuation, this could be good for us. We want to see QQQ hit $324.

Dow and S&P look good, not going to chart.

Russell had a solid reversal, but you still want to see a close above the 21. We want this to have upward momentum to close about 2240. Solid rejection from the 89 and good volume.

$JPM is moving into a cup on the daily. Watch it around $157, could start a big move from there.

Put/Call ratio has kept going up, which is interesting. Last time it was higher than this / this high was around the election drama when we had that brief pullback. I don't know what this means, if anything, but I think there are fewer call buyers. Options volume has also gone down a little bit, but still higher than Q4 last year. Wonder if we have some re-entrants. Feels like there may be less retail trading right now, but that's just a gut feeling.

interesting - I would think the move would be here to 160+. Are you looking at the gravestone doji on 3/18?

stuff that came up in a scan:

• MSFT
• GOOGL
• JPM
• MA
• UNP
• MU
• GM
• MAR
• HPQ (ironically the first stock I talked about on TA like 15 years ago)
• LYFT
• TOL
• COTY
• URBN
• AXP
• WFC
• CAT

Looking at the parabolic SAR. Over the last 6 MPs everytime we get a cross over it has been good for a $10+ move. I am looking for a crossover around the $157, where the SAR and the current price action appear to be converging. Confirm the cross over and I think you move in to try and capture the next leg up.

in terms of TA picks recently:

$UPWK - this reclaimed the wedge on Friday. there is no more room unless I drop the bottom of the wedge to the 89 EMA (which is an OK thing to do. We will get solution here soon. Notice volume is low. If you're in it, no reason not to hold until mid week.



$MU - what to do with MU is really tricky. Technically, this is an awesome reversal. It's in a daily squeeze, the squeeze looks like it will fire long, volume remains elevated, and it has reclaimed all the EMAs (although the 8 and 21 have not crossed, they will with one more bullish day. $88 bucks is the mean, this looks like it can continue! Now the problem is that earnings are Wednesday and earnings are binary. Short interest has also increased, which can become rocket fuel. Now the problem is what to do if MU gets up to say, $95 by Wednesday close. Do you get out when IV is high and you're probably only -30% or do you hold through earnings to see what happens? If MU stays around where it is and you remain down ~75% on your options, well, your downside is limited and therefore it may be worth holding through earnings. This is a really tough call. I had intended to be out of this trade before earnings, but the 2 ATR move on 3/23 messed me up because I wasn't watching during the day.

I also know there is a boat load of demand for their products and there are shortages of computer chips. In January, MU sold off after earnings (but it was also at 3 ATR), but quickly reocvered within 6 trading days to new ATH. In September, MU also sold off after earnings, but completely recovered within 7 trading days, and then went on to make new ATH. In June, MU had a gap-up the next day and then sold off before making new ATH 17 trading days after (that would exceed the time horizon on our options). MU sold off into earnings in June, but increased in price into September and January.

Given the history, it may make sense to roll the dice, especially since we have sold off leading in. I may buy some cheap expiring OTM puts to create a semi-collar if the pricing is attractive enough. It's also possible that it blows past the expected move and keeps on rolling, especially if management gives solid advice and makes some sort of announcement. My guess of what happens is as good as yours - this is a tricky spot to be in. My apologies for the length of this post, I wanted to explain my thought process. Curious what you all think. I'll make a decision on Wednesday based on where we are then.

$ASAN - really no escaping that this looks like crap. This was down on a major up day on Friday, which is a red flag, although it did put in a solid hammer candle. I do think the selling here is really overdone. It threatened -3 ATR before it was rejected. I believe in this in the long run - their product is excellent. It's possible this has gotten slammed into WFH stocks, but their product is not really a WFH product. They just need Salesforce or Microsoft to buy them. In summary, there is no reason for the stock to be this suppressed but there is also no catalyst to take it higher.

It's possible that the Hwang fund blowup influenced the price action here.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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PAVE, ETN, VMC, FCX, CAT

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One that has been absolutely on fire lately is NUE. I bought in the 63s and sold on high 60s and am now dreading over not holding it a bit longer.

FLR is another one that has done well lately.

$OPEN - also overdone, likely caught up in the trough of disillusionment for SPACs. If any of you are not Gartner subscribers or aren't familiar with them for research, I recommend looking up the Gartner Hype Cycle. It illustrates pretty well the same process stocks or classes of stocks go through.



It is a bad sign when a stock like this sells of 4.2% on a majorly bullish Friday. Quite possible this also got caught up in the Hwang family office blow-up, and the volume on this has been pathetic. It is rejecting off the -2 ATR, and in theory, Friday was a higher low for this. Over $26 is a break of the bull flag, which is still active, but dwindling now. The lack of inventory in the real estate market and increasing interest rates may be even more of a reason why there isn't belief here. I do know that Redfin and Zillow are legitimate businesses, there is no reason why these guys can't be as well, but the space is getting crowded. Zillow is a well run organization, Redfin is not. I attempted to use Redfin on the west coast and it didn't go well for me. They have a good app but lack the ground game to be excellent. I think Opendoor can box them out. Cathie Wood keeps buying this as well. I expect this to at least mean revert in the near-term and expect this be a failed trade. You want to see this cross the 89 EMA (25.40) for any hope of this recovering.

$BTWN - fear and loathing in SPAC Vegas strikes again. This is still clinging to the bottom of the wedge, this could still work out, but has to get its act together soon. My gut tells me no, failed trade. Also possible this is caught up in the Hwang incident. Volume on Friday was very high relative to the last week and a half, also a bad sign it was down on a trend up day. It's hanging out at -2 ATR. Mean reversion is about $12. I want that to get out.

$UNP - all I can say is congrats to anyone that took this with me a couple weeks ago. I plan to exit tomorrow.



Here's when I first posted about it on 3/14.

HPQ - I missed the move.
JPM - Ragoo posted, looks great
GM - looks like a good time to enter again, go to May options, though.
MAR - this could take off. Watch for 150+
LYFT - looks good for move to +2 ATR. Ideal entry 62.50
TOL - missed the move, I think. Want to buy at $55
COTY - guess who's back? I like this setup a lot, ideal entry 8.50, take to 9.40

URBN looks pretty good. Enter at 37.20 if you can, take to $41.

AXP - like it, want to get at 141

WFC - same thing. want at 38.50

CAT - resuming its up trend. Missed entry at 221

On $CAT, I hope the person asking me about shorting it didn't do it!

LOYAL AG said:

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trip98 said:

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Fubo subscriber after having been on youtube tv....same price point .....only getting 50% of the sweet sixteen games on fubo!!
If the whole allure of fubo is in the future being able to bet they are missing out big time on one of most heavily bet sporting events

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I haven't see any real news on FUBO's massive drop lately so I kind of think this is what's dragging it down right now, the fact that it can't deliver on it's brand promise right here, right now. This has to be solved in the next 12 months. That aside once the tournament is over if they have baseball and football betting available then we'll see the price start climbing again. As for timing I think unless you're already in I'd wait until after the Final 4.

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If they try to build betting in now... Great. But how few states allow it? That's the other hurdle that won't be cleared anytime soon