Are you in $OPEN or $MU?
Stock Markets
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Last: 2 hrs ago by Bulldog73
Foggy....what say you on Qs and SPY tomorrow?
Won't surprise me to see a small gap up on both or a red to green day
I'm not thinking this is a bearish week.
Won't surprise me to see a small gap up on both or a red to green day
I'm not thinking this is a bearish week.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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I exited MU for a small profit today. I averaged down and then got out.
I am not in OPEN.
I am not in OPEN.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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I think a Tuesday after a relatively benign day, will be red, but it won't be much.
I do think this week is far more green than red.
Naz gonna rip to 14-15k IMO before we blow the top off.
I do think this week is far more green than red.
Naz gonna rip to 14-15k IMO before we blow the top off.
Yep, it's musical chairs on the Titanic. The one's without a chair are going to get destroyed, especially if they're foolish enough to be gambling on margin.docaggie said:I think for a large portion of retail who are holding, it doesn't matter what earnings show. They're holding and even buying, looking for huge returns.Jet Black said:
GME earnings tomorrow. Chances they stink and it tanks?
what is your timeline? Shares or long dated calls?Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
I expect to make a lot of money due to PLTR, and if I don't, I'll be very disappointed.
I expect that we all should make a large % gain on PLTR before the top blows off and the escalator macro ride southward takes shape.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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I have both, but my calls are not far OTM and are May expiry. I have them in case we wake up and Cathie has bought the float and we are at 50 and my CCs are toast.
Powell speaks tomorrow and Wednesday. Expect some volatility while he's talking. He is going to be questioned heavily on the treasury yield I'd imagine. Mind your size and risk while his mouth is open. Only guy that moves markets more than Trump's tweets did
Interesting chart on fed funds futures being a leading indicator of stocks. Predicting big sell off into April then continuation of bull trend.
Tom McLellan cnbc video for the rest...
BlueTaze said:
Interesting chart on fed funds futures being a leading indicator of stocks. Predicting big sell off into April then continuation of bull trend.
Tom McLellan cnbc video for the rest...
We may have already gotten the sell off.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Here's what I see on the Qs:
QQQ got rejected right at the 10 SMA on the weekly as well as the 50 SMA on the daily, both at the 321 level. Need to push through 321 then setup for next move through 324 which has been a brick wall. If the bulls can push through 324 that should complete the inverse H&S formation on the daily chart and push us through to 329 and then best case set up for cup completion on the weekly at 338. Still think we are looking good so far. My daily squeeze indicator also showed positive momentum on the day for the first time in almost a month.
QQQ got rejected right at the 10 SMA on the weekly as well as the 50 SMA on the daily, both at the 321 level. Need to push through 321 then setup for next move through 324 which has been a brick wall. If the bulls can push through 324 that should complete the inverse H&S formation on the daily chart and push us through to 329 and then best case set up for cup completion on the weekly at 338. Still think we are looking good so far. My daily squeeze indicator also showed positive momentum on the day for the first time in almost a month.
$ASAN
30k posted a good chart earlier; I am just going to look at the trendlines on the daily chart and show what I see. Looks like we started off in the pink ascending channel, and then accelerated onto the golden trendline into a rising wedge pattern before it fell into the flagging pattern outlined in the blue lines. It tested the pink trendline at a big support level of 33.60 and bounced before hitting the upper flag line and then fell down through the flag to another big support level at 29. So far it looks like 29 is setting up a bottom but still iffy.
If it can break through the flag around 32ish then it should test 33.60 and then back to 36 resistance before testing 38ish for best case scenario. If it loses 29 it could test the lower trendline around 28.
30k posted a good chart earlier; I am just going to look at the trendlines on the daily chart and show what I see. Looks like we started off in the pink ascending channel, and then accelerated onto the golden trendline into a rising wedge pattern before it fell into the flagging pattern outlined in the blue lines. It tested the pink trendline at a big support level of 33.60 and bounced before hitting the upper flag line and then fell down through the flag to another big support level at 29. So far it looks like 29 is setting up a bottom but still iffy.
If it can break through the flag around 32ish then it should test 33.60 and then back to 36 resistance before testing 38ish for best case scenario. If it loses 29 it could test the lower trendline around 28.
Like most here (probably) holding shares in my long term account, I approve this message.
I'm not 30k, more like 20k, but here's my chart....TMOOSE said:
30K - mind showing us PLTR? Thoughts?
Nice wedge coming off of all time highs, consolidating nicely, trading tighter into this wedge. Very solid support around 23, but I think this launches soon with the markets push up.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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$30,000 Millionaire said:BlueTaze said:
Interesting chart on fed funds futures being a leading indicator of stocks. Predicting big sell off into April then continuation of bull trend.
Tom McLellan cnbc video for the rest...
We may have already gotten the sell off.
That's what I was thinking. Shift that 96 days forward instead of 110 and it might correspond even better. Then the drop we just had corresponds to the drop that's forecasted in April using a 110 day shift.
Lotta folks buying puts and betting against GME again. Something tells me a contrarian play is the way to go, and she revisits $300+ tomorrow. Not sure I have enough conviction in my hunch to put any real money on it.Jet Black said:
GME earnings tomorrow. Chances they stink and it tanks?
Everyone and their mom's thinks we are going to have blow off top in Q2 and then have a massive bear market.
This tells me that it is the most unlikely scenario.
This tells me that it is the most unlikely scenario.
Counterpoint (and I know you're way more tied in on the financial circuit than me): I've seen more folks think Q2 and into early Q3 are gonna suck, with a rally end of Q3 into Q4.aggiedaniel06 said:
Everyone and their mom's thinks we are going to have blow off top in Q2 and then have a massive bear market.
This tells me that it is the most unlikely scenario.
Are you really hearing more folks say we get to 4K here in Q2?
aggiedaniel06 said:
Everyone and their mom's thinks we are going to have blow off top in Q2 and then have a massive bear market.
This tells me that it is the most unlikely scenario.
So, back to loading up on the high beta growth tickers?
I mean, I never stopped, but your support would feel nice.
.
AG 2000' said:Counterpoint (and I know you're way more tied in on the financial circuit than me): I've seen more folks think Q2 and into early Q3 are gonna suck, with a rally end of Q3 into Q4.aggiedaniel06 said:
Everyone and their mom's thinks we are going to have blow off top in Q2 and then have a massive bear market.
This tells me that it is the most unlikely scenario.
Are you really hearing more folks say we get to 4K here in Q2?
I think that. I don't think we get a massive bear market, though.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
People have another 10% in Q2 as a foregone conclusion. (Stimmy, reopening momentum, infrastructure bill being some reasons)
You see this with people like Cathie just martingaling her positions.
You see this with people like Cathie just martingaling her positions.
Morning all....
Slight red early premarket open.
Qs -.32% at top of yesterday's candle and testing the 8 day. Hopefully basing here between 317-321 (same as mid Jan) before push to 340+ on Qs, although 320.8+ close would be great.
SPY -.35% at top of yesterday's candle but below the 8 day and well above 21. Hopefully we are basing here between 388-394 (same channel as mid Feb) before a push to 400+ on SPY, although 394.5+ close would be great.
SKEW back up though at 146.14 These levels almost always precede a pullback to some degree.
Might just be a sit and wait for the next meal day....
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Irish 2.0 said:Bull case is still fully intact with a close over 317.5. Today the QQQ reclaimed the 10DMA and the 5DMA and got rejected at the 50DMA very slowly. It wasn't a hard rejection which means there is consolidation up here. We're 1.5pts off the HOD and 4pts from the LOD.deadbq03 said:Probably should've worded it like the bulls went to sleep and decided to stay there.$30,000 Millionaire said:on a day we're up 2%? c'mon now.deadbq03 said:
QQQ bears coming out of their afternoon hibernation.
Either way, we've had the flattest couple of hours we've had in a long time but now it's moving back down. No idea what that means for tomorrow's open, your guess is probably better than mine.
My prediction for tomorrow's open will be a slight red to flat open on the futures with another move to the 50DMA on the QQQ.
This man can predict the future!!
Isn't this a perfect looking C&H on the /NQ? I'm on mobile until noonish, but this looks pretty...
Irish 2.0 said:Irish 2.0 said:Bull case is still fully intact with a close over 317.5. Today the QQQ reclaimed the 10DMA and the 5DMA and got rejected at the 50DMA very slowly. It wasn't a hard rejection which means there is consolidation up here. We're 1.5pts off the HOD and 4pts from the LOD.deadbq03 said:Probably should've worded it like the bulls went to sleep and decided to stay there.$30,000 Millionaire said:on a day we're up 2%? c'mon now.deadbq03 said:
QQQ bears coming out of their afternoon hibernation.
Either way, we've had the flattest couple of hours we've had in a long time but now it's moving back down. No idea what that means for tomorrow's open, your guess is probably better than mine.
My prediction for tomorrow's open will be a slight red to flat open on the futures with another move to the 50DMA on the QQQ.
This man can predict the future!!
Isn't this a perfect looking C&H on the /NQ? I'm on mobile until noonish, but this looks pretty...
Can you requests 322 on Qs for me by end of day by chance?
It appears the McInnis self-replying virus has spread from Scotland to Ireland.Irish 2.0 said:Irish 2.0 said:Bull case is still fully intact with a close over 317.5. Today the QQQ reclaimed the 10DMA and the 5DMA and got rejected at the 50DMA very slowly. It wasn't a hard rejection which means there is consolidation up here. We're 1.5pts off the HOD and 4pts from the LOD.deadbq03 said:Probably should've worded it like the bulls went to sleep and decided to stay there.$30,000 Millionaire said:on a day we're up 2%? c'mon now.deadbq03 said:
QQQ bears coming out of their afternoon hibernation.
Either way, we've had the flattest couple of hours we've had in a long time but now it's moving back down. No idea what that means for tomorrow's open, your guess is probably better than mine.
My prediction for tomorrow's open will be a slight red to flat open on the futures with another move to the 50DMA on the QQQ.
This man can predict the future!!
Isn't this a perfect looking C&H on the /NQ? I'm on mobile until noonish, but this looks pretty...
Prognightmare said:It appears the McInnis self-replying virus has spread from Scotland to Ireland.Irish 2.0 said:Irish 2.0 said:Bull case is still fully intact with a close over 317.5. Today the QQQ reclaimed the 10DMA and the 5DMA and got rejected at the 50DMA very slowly. It wasn't a hard rejection which means there is consolidation up here. We're 1.5pts off the HOD and 4pts from the LOD.deadbq03 said:Probably should've worded it like the bulls went to sleep and decided to stay there.$30,000 Millionaire said:on a day we're up 2%? c'mon now.deadbq03 said:
QQQ bears coming out of their afternoon hibernation.
Either way, we've had the flattest couple of hours we've had in a long time but now it's moving back down. No idea what that means for tomorrow's open, your guess is probably better than mine.
My prediction for tomorrow's open will be a slight red to flat open on the futures with another move to the 50DMA on the QQQ.
This man can predict the future!!
Isn't this a perfect looking C&H on the /NQ? I'm on mobile until noonish, but this looks pretty...
I'm trying to decide if talking to one's self is a sign of genius or insanity?
usually a mix of both. I have incredible conversations with myself.Red Red Wine said:
I'm trying to decide if talking to one's self is a sign of genius or insanity?
ProgN
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Some Macro Color for those who care.
German Lockdowns...Short Covering...Reallocations...Japan RM Buying..Treas Rally
Treasuries started the overnight session marginally higher in yield and rallied twice... Once from 10 PM to Midnight and again at 4am to now... We heard of Japanese Real Money buyers and saw via the brokers large long offerings wanted for US Corporates... This in the face of year end out of Japan... Shorts sellers of treasuries were also covering... And we saw some reallocations of stocks to bonds given the massive reallocation we expect to see next week out of equities into bonds... But the big move came after Germany shut down their economy again for lack of Covid progress and vaccinations stalling...Europe is the most behind of any developed continent in vaccine distribution.. And the Astra Zeneca choice continues to get bad press....
Equities are weaker but the bigger move is in oil... After reaching 66.60 in Oil last week we have seen some weakness with oil down about 4% this morning... 58.75 is support, but if it breaks it could lead to some CTA liquidation... Not just yet, but we are toying with that level... The Biden administration is talking up infrastructure again, while needed clearly on roads, we hope it is not another pork filled project...and it gets bipartisan support...but it should support equities and inflation talk... We do not see the treasuries getting derailed over the near term... But if the pension fund head that was interviewed in BB overnight is right about 3% 10 years, equities will have a tough 2021 sledding... We would expect the Fed to come in somewhere above 2%
Month end reallocations seems to us a bit early as 2021 has seen the majority of these moves right at the end of the month, but not all money managers are aligned with that rule.....it will be a big move as equities for the quarter are up 5% or so, with the Russell up 15%, while the 10 year treasury is higher in yield by 75 basis points... So expect the reallocations to be meaningful...
Rates... There is a window here between now and the beginning of next month for treasuries to rally in price... Shorts are full and while they are in no rush to cover, we could see a rally back to 10 year yield of 1.47 that failed on March 11... After that we expect the economic numbers, both non farm and inflation, to start to work treasuries to higher yields... But given we get marked to market every day, we think treasuries will have resistance at 1.58, 1.52 and 1.47...then resume higher rates...
Corporates were led by Oracle yesterday... They were part of three deals that totaled about 17 billion... A good start toward the 35 billion we are looking for this week... We will point out that IG spreads were not out 10% yesterday as CDX said, because there was a semi annual roll implemented . It added AES, Lennar, and Pulte to the index and deleted FirstEnergy Ingersoll Rand and Ovintiv... So the range is intact, but the optical spread number is higher
Yellen and Powell are up today... We expect a few headlines... There is also 7 additional Fed speakers today highlighted by Bullard and Brainard twice and Williams once.. The second Brainard speech at 3.45 is the key one to focus one...
Expect another choppy day, but the window is open for now for a bull flattening move.
German Lockdowns...Short Covering...Reallocations...Japan RM Buying..Treas Rally
Treasuries started the overnight session marginally higher in yield and rallied twice... Once from 10 PM to Midnight and again at 4am to now... We heard of Japanese Real Money buyers and saw via the brokers large long offerings wanted for US Corporates... This in the face of year end out of Japan... Shorts sellers of treasuries were also covering... And we saw some reallocations of stocks to bonds given the massive reallocation we expect to see next week out of equities into bonds... But the big move came after Germany shut down their economy again for lack of Covid progress and vaccinations stalling...Europe is the most behind of any developed continent in vaccine distribution.. And the Astra Zeneca choice continues to get bad press....
Equities are weaker but the bigger move is in oil... After reaching 66.60 in Oil last week we have seen some weakness with oil down about 4% this morning... 58.75 is support, but if it breaks it could lead to some CTA liquidation... Not just yet, but we are toying with that level... The Biden administration is talking up infrastructure again, while needed clearly on roads, we hope it is not another pork filled project...and it gets bipartisan support...but it should support equities and inflation talk... We do not see the treasuries getting derailed over the near term... But if the pension fund head that was interviewed in BB overnight is right about 3% 10 years, equities will have a tough 2021 sledding... We would expect the Fed to come in somewhere above 2%
Month end reallocations seems to us a bit early as 2021 has seen the majority of these moves right at the end of the month, but not all money managers are aligned with that rule.....it will be a big move as equities for the quarter are up 5% or so, with the Russell up 15%, while the 10 year treasury is higher in yield by 75 basis points... So expect the reallocations to be meaningful...
Rates... There is a window here between now and the beginning of next month for treasuries to rally in price... Shorts are full and while they are in no rush to cover, we could see a rally back to 10 year yield of 1.47 that failed on March 11... After that we expect the economic numbers, both non farm and inflation, to start to work treasuries to higher yields... But given we get marked to market every day, we think treasuries will have resistance at 1.58, 1.52 and 1.47...then resume higher rates...
Corporates were led by Oracle yesterday... They were part of three deals that totaled about 17 billion... A good start toward the 35 billion we are looking for this week... We will point out that IG spreads were not out 10% yesterday as CDX said, because there was a semi annual roll implemented . It added AES, Lennar, and Pulte to the index and deleted FirstEnergy Ingersoll Rand and Ovintiv... So the range is intact, but the optical spread number is higher
Yellen and Powell are up today... We expect a few headlines... There is also 7 additional Fed speakers today highlighted by Bullard and Brainard twice and Williams once.. The second Brainard speech at 3.45 is the key one to focus one...
Expect another choppy day, but the window is open for now for a bull flattening move.
Red Red Wine said:
I'm trying to decide if talking to one's self is a sign of genius or insanity?
I'll allow it. He's good folk.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
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