Overall, I'm bearish and don't like the positions I took or increased when we popped Wednesday right before JPow spoke. The leading names in tech are struggling to get any sort of traction. There's winners to be found but I feel I need to go into risk management mode. I'm sure as soon as I do that my positions I exit will finally rip (looking at you INTC and WBA). I'm about a month or longer out on a lot of my Calls but would be more comfortable with shares and selling calls at this point.

S&P is pretty similar. Weekly is between +1 and +2 ATR, daily reverted to the mean. both in a clear uptrend and not parabolic.



Monthly on SPX is a bit more extended. A little more concerning to me. Maybe if taken in concert with the NQ diversion, maybe we get something more corrective in May/June

I am actually bullish on green energy plays and weed. Those are the things this administration will push and we haven't seen much movement by them to do so yet. Some of the biggest names in solar as an example are 25+% off their highs from a couple of months ago with no negative catalysts - mostly just macro market.

Look at charts on things like FSLR, SPWR, CSIQ.

Weed is going to pop it's just a matter of when. I want to be in shares there selling calls until we get some sort of indication and even confirmation that the feds are going to do something big. At that point it's going to be calls and more calls.

Russell is pretty extended, but it didn't really do the 2020 rally.

RenoAg said:

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Wonder how weed plays like SNDL and mining/materials stocks like DNN or WWR hold up in an environment that punishes tech/growth. Lot of favorable trends for mj plays in any environment I would think. Would think green energy and electrification trends continue regardless too. So maybe these positions don't need to be pared back as much if we're trying to increase cash in our portfolios and limit downside risk. But I'm just an idiot amateur talking out loud.

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Agree on weed and there is such motion both nationally and in Texas for legalization that it will inevitably happen so those plays are at least good for some short term wins. I don't know yet about long term. I would think more USA based stocks would be better long term but they aren't quite there yet.
I think mining stocks will do well long term but it takes them a little time. MP is a good example to look at for WWR although it had had the advantage of a long bull run

Bullish. I think this past week was a result of quad witching as much as anything. Most of what I was in was having a good Friday/week until it was time to pin and shake out the suckers. Take a look at INTC over the final two hours of the day for a prime example. It approached $65 multiple times before cratering to close to $64 then ultimately closing slightly below $64. Why? Both of those had volume over 30k and no other strike was close. I think we saw a lot of prices "held down" through Friday close. Tomorrow I'll post a week S&P500 with the Fib I keep referencing. We've been dancing around that 2/16 high for several weeks but to me the trend keeps looking bullish. IMO had this week not been 3/19 we'd have seen a rally away from that level.

Edit: SP from mobile. Not as easy to read but I don't see this as a bearish chart. We retraced a bit from the big week of 3/12.

$AIG - target 50. Low Beta, so you have to be right!

$ADM target 59.



Not seeing many directional setups I like. Probably just a premium selling week for me.

Ooh - that should have been on my watch list. Solid. Thanks

Nothing wrong with short people unless you're Randy Newman.

I'm long... Long volatility

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Is everyone here bearish? We could puke. Trying to gauge sentiment.

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Bullearish

I'll go with that.

CrazyRichAggie said:

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I don't have pretty charts yet, but I will cook and provide the food at the first in person meeting.

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I could arrange as host for about 10-11 or so.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Is everyone here bearish? We could puke. Trying to gauge sentiment.

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I'm not bearish but I also don't think we rocket yet. I did buy a chunk of AAPL May 120c on Friday.

Ragoo said:

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CrazyRichAggie said:

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I don't have pretty charts yet, but I will cook and provide the food at the first in person meeting.

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I could arrange as host for about 10-11 or so.

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He's CrazyRich, we prefer hot women to host.

I feel like I'm missing something here. Pm a link to the discord?

panduh bear said:

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I feel like I'm missing something here. Pm a link to the discord?

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Am I going to have to re-up on premium to get a PM for the discord? I've just got the old one which has been out of commission for a while.

No joke. The discord traffic has really decreased. I must have missed the fiasco original discord.

Came here to post the same thing. Monday tech rippy!

So, I haven't been watching. Are they really advertising to get people to invest in QQQ?

Is DNN about to form a cup and handle up move? Just need to see the moon, correct?

Left side of cup is 2/17 and right side of cup is 3/15 so I don't know if 4 weeks is long enough for a cup/handle pattern to be relevant. Thoughs?

DubFalls said:

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So, I haven't been watching. Are they really advertising to get people to invest in QQQ?

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Yep...Invesco QQQ is the official ETF of March madness

We already know about most of these.

gougler08 said:

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DubFalls said:

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So, I haven't been watching. Are they really advertising to get people to invest in QQQ?

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Yep...Invesco QQQ is the official ETF of March madness

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This adds to my we are in a bubble thesis.

DubFalls said:

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gougler08 said:

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DubFalls said:

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So, I haven't been watching. Are they really advertising to get people to invest in QQQ?

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Yep...Invesco QQQ is the official ETF of March madness

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This adds to my we are in a bubble thesis.

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Agree. This strikes me as a "how much more stupid money can we squeeze into this thing" move.

The google machine tells me the deal was announced november 2019. So probably Lee's to read in than you think.

Hola.... Tomorrow will be a big day IMO in direction. While I see both sides of the bull and bear cases, I lean a tad bit to the bullish side near term. Didn't like the close Friday at all, although quad witch day being taken into consideration.

Mixed approach for me late last week. I trimmed trades quite a bit late last week, took gains in some positions, sold short term weekly SPY/Q puts on the downward pressure into close (gains) and also cut losses at my stops given SKEW at ATHs.

Good part is SKEW came well back down to 141.75 from 148+. Still above 140 but that 148 level made me nervous.

Just for good measure I did add 3/26 SPY and Q calls towards the close for this coming week. Good decision? Monday will tell IMO.

Edit: I will be watching 318.16 on Qs & 392.67 on SPY. Both at MT for those.

I don't know that we are in the top, the 2000 and 2008 bubbles went far longer than anyone thought it could.

I just think we are in one. It might be 2 years before anything comes of it.

Also, regarding bears and demotivation.

- put/call ratio has been pretty low
- short interest in stocks is pretty low

FinTwit bears are still motivated it's all going to hell.