$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I think O&G will be buyable on a pull back. Very extended right now. I probably wouldn't try to short it, but if you are long oil calls, this is a decent place to take profits.

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I've looked at APA and RDS/A recently and both look like they just crossed Model T, as in last week or two. I got assigned out of both yesterday and will probably go right into them Monday with the same goal. XOM looks similar to me. Love your thoughts.

I've posted about $SSL before, but it still looks good here. I would also add $CHEF. I've own both.

LOYAL AG said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I think O&G will be buyable on a pull back. Very extended right now. I probably wouldn't try to short it, but if you are long oil calls, this is a decent place to take profits.

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I've looked at APA and RDS/A recently and both look like they just crossed Model T, as in last week or two. I got assigned out of both yesterday and will probably go right into them Monday with the same goal. XOM looks similar to me. Love your thoughts.

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I'm in APA right now - up 13%, and I sold my BP and XOM leaps on Friday.

This linked article could bode well for XOM (at least I hope so). I think XOM is up ~50% since the beginning of the year. Pretty stout increase for a couple months and maybe it needs a pullback rest, but news looks more bullish. The world is opening up, travel industry ready to go, people wanting to vacation and driving season approaching. If the XOM North Sea sale goes through, that takes a lot of cost out of their system and earnings should blossom. I'm thinking $3 fuel going forward. $4 fuel kills growth in US, but $3 keeps everyone in the game (...and hurting). Saudi knows this... Always remember, you can shear sheep every year, but you can only skin them once. Everyone makes a little money. If XOM pulls back to low 50's, I'm loading....I'm likely loading sans low 50's.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Considers-Keeping-Oil-Cuts-Unchanged-Through-April.html

ETA: 8:01PM - Sorry forgot to add link below. I haven't made my way through it yet.
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/Global/Files/investor-relations/analyst-meetings/2021-ExxonMobil-Investor-Day.pdf

Question for those who play the covered call game? Have you ever sold covered calls that were in the money to increase premium if the stock rips up?


For example?

You have a cost basis on XYZ stock at $5 per share.

It's sitting at $10 per share.

It rips up to $15 per share.

Could you sell ITM covered calls at $12.50 to increase your premium if you fully expect it to pullback to the $10 mark soon?

I guess I shouldn't say "could," but I should ask if anyone has ever done this and is it a legitimate strategy?

irish pete ag06 said:

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Question for those who play the covered call game? Have you ever sold covered calls that were in the money to increase premium if the stock rips up?


For example?

You have a cost basis on XYZ stock at $5 per share.

It's sitting at $10 per share.

It rips up to $15 per share.

Could you sell ITM covered calls at $12.50 to increase your premium if you fully expect it to pullback to the $10 mark soon?

I guess I shouldn't say "could," but I should ask if anyone has ever done this and is it a legitimate strategy?

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Yes, I do this often, typically if a stock is extended and I expect a pullback. It's guaranteed returns if there is enough premium.

irish pete ag06 said:

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Question for those who play the covered call game? Have you ever sold covered calls that were in the money to increase premium if the stock rips up?


For example?

You have a cost basis on XYZ stock at $5 per share.

It's sitting at $10 per share.

It rips up to $15 per share.

Could you sell ITM covered calls at $12.50 to increase your premium if you fully expect it to pullback to the $10 mark soon?

I guess I shouldn't say "could," but I should ask if anyone has ever done this and is it a legitimate strategy?

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I don't get that though. Wouldn't they be exercised right away?

Rare for that to happen. Think about how many times we've all held long itm calls. Early exercise isn't common

irish pete ag06 said:

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Question for those who play the covered call game? Have you ever sold covered calls that were in the money to increase premium if the stock rips up?


For example?

You have a cost basis on XYZ stock at $5 per share.

It's sitting at $10 per share.

It rips up to $15 per share.

Could you sell ITM covered calls at $12.50 to increase your premium if you fully expect it to pullback to the $10 mark soon?

I guess I shouldn't say "could," but I should ask if anyone has ever done this and is it a legitimate strategy?

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I'll do this with high IV stocks. If IV is over 100% I'll look at the trade at the next strike and 1 or 2 strikes back. If I can get a good profit 2 strikes back I'll probably take it.

What do your candles signify? I am familiar with the red & green, but haven't experimented with hollow, or variable colors.

Ukraine Gas Expert said:

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What do your candles signify? I am familiar with the red & green, but haven't experimented with hollow, or variable colors.

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Volume.

Thanks

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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This linked article could bode well for XOM (at least I hope so). I think XOM is up ~50% since the beginning of the year. Pretty stout increase for a couple months and maybe it needs a pullback rest, but news looks more bullish. The world is opening up, travel industry ready to go, people wanting to vacation and driving season approaching. If the XOM North Sea sale goes through, that takes a lot of cost out of their system and earnings should blossom. I'm thinking $3 fuel going forward. $4 fuel kills growth in US, but $3 keeps everyone in the game (...and hurting). Saudi knows this... Always remember, you can shear sheep every year, but you can only skin them once. Everyone makes a little money. If XOM pulls back to low 50's, I'm loading....I'm likely loading sans low 50's.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Considers-Keeping-Oil-Cuts-Unchanged-Through-April.html

ETA: 8:01PM - Sorry forgot to add link below. I haven't made my way through it yet.
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/Global/Files/investor-relations/analyst-meetings/2021-ExxonMobil-Investor-Day.pdf

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Exxon gapped up the day after Election Day. It's like someone knew Biden would be good for the stock. It's been going up since.

The timing seems to be more than a coincidence. Why do democrats seem to hate oil companies yet they taking power has XOM stock exploding?

Maybe it was more that folks thought a D in the white house would likely end the daily fearporn from the media? O&G being beaten down recovery stocks

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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For Green Energy to work, they need to make oil extremely expensive because Green Energy is very expensive and not capable of the output fossil fuels currently.

It was a no brainer why it gapped up and kept moving.

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Yep.

Hollow means stock went up. The low body of the bar is where it opened and the top body of the bar is where it closed.

Filled means the stock went down. The wicks on the candles represent the high and low of the day beyond where it opened and closed.

The blue dots denote significantly above average volume.

The red/yellow/green is some TOS script I picked up to denote momentum, which is largely a product of volume. I am still deciding if I like it or if I want to go back to my red/blue view.

Anyone see anything interesting?

What does anyone think of $XL these days? Pretty far pullback, wondering if it has any legs from this point.

I'm still in. It's a long term hold, EV play.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Anyone see anything interesting?

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Yep possibly. Would love your opinion. Whatcha think 30k?

Circling back to this one. Alerted the board here weeks back on it and I have been in and out as a trade and done well so far but wasn't in it during the past few days. With things expecting to open back up I am looking at reentering here and selling covered calls against it.

See volume profile especially past few days. Held up well IMO coming off goal posts.

Green - 8 Day
Yellow - 21 Day
Dark Blue - 50 Day
Red - 200 Day
Light Blue upper/lower - Bollinger
Purple - VIX
Upper Blue line - Index

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Anyone see anything interesting?

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What about MBIO? Down 30 percent over the last month, seemed to get a massive volume influx around $3 on Friday (following a similar pattern of most stocks on the daily with an uptick at that time)

I know it has been mentioned here before just wondering if people were still in it

StrawberryFields said:

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What does anyone think of $XL these days? Pretty far pullback, wondering if it has any legs from this point.

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I own shares. Short term it's a piece of chit. Long term I think this will be good. EV moves and O&G moves have been somewhat inversely correlated for the last year. I'm not selling cc on the shares yet.

This looks pretty good for continuation. Congrats on your trades. This would have been great to get at $2.50.

Yes here. I think this is a $7 or $8 stock. I may sell $3 or $2P at these prices.

I think I'm willing to buy more XL down here.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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This looks pretty good for continuation. Congrats on your trades. This would have been great to get at $2.50.

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Just an experiment for me to see if a strategy worked or not. Basically bought at bottom of 8EMA and sold when punched the upper Bollinger. Made a few round trips but didn't hold any shares. Next was to buy/sell and keep 'net free' shares each round and move to a secondary account. Hadn't started that yet before the past few days market sentiments.

May give that a rinse and repeat trial now or just buy and hold. Looong cup completion at about $7.50. Think it will get back there. Volume way too much to ignore IMO.

What XL is selling is believable tech.

https://www.xlfleet.com/assets/Uploads/XL-XLP-F150-Flyer.pdf

They have to execute on it, obviously. I think on the macro that there is SPAC fatigue and all the SPACs are getting caught up in it.

Some have posted on here about the down moves the last couple weeks and pissible continued pullback at least partly including institutional money trying to drive retail out of stocks. What would the goal be if that is the case? That sounds like trying to chase off the weaker players at a regular poker game.

Would this be to get retail back in to other stocks that institutions have recently been acquiring? Or is this chasing them to sell so institutions could buy these same high beta stocks cheaper before they move upwards?

Agree on SPAC fatigue

This is the hit piece muddy waters published on XL. My problem with this is they're basing a lot of their facts on what former low level employees are saying. What is clear is that there is demand for tech like this and they're underselling the likelihood that XL will improve its products and will be able to execute. They can also partner with anyone or they can be acquired. I think the fairest point here is that OEMs may choose to compete with them. The industry is also nascent so it should not be a surprise that customers are in pilots. From a trading point of view, I don't think we've seen the last of these guys. Position size appropriately! I have a less than 1% position in these guys at a $25 basis.

https://d.muddywatersresearch.com/content/uploads/2021/03/MW_XL_20210303.pdf

been fighting the urge to average down on XL