I sort of agree with Loyal. I think this week might be calm, but I think we get some barfing between now and 3/19, maybe as soon as Tuesday / Wed.
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Last: 12 min ago by El_duderino
If you make your first buys Monday you would be making them $5+ lower than my initial entries. That should give you some confident perspective. If I were to be making my initial buys Monday, based on the markets reversal look, I'd "cheat" another $5 lower entry by selling the April 9th $117 naked puts for $3+. If AAPL has bottomed you are going to pocket the $3 premium. If AAPL consolidates more and have hit your $117 next $5 lower price then you would actually be entering at net $114.StrawberryFields said:Thanks, this is a great strategy!oldarmy1 said:I flipped to shares as described on here and outlined the strategy in shorter form just now on twitter.StrawberryFields said:Do you think the April $40 calls would be a good play here?oldarmy1 said:
You see this volume reversal on a stock like NIO and you have a hard major support bottom set. Now the question becomes is the macro market sell off over or more to go? I see all the scenarios people are looking for but NIO should be a first in buy. Amazing volume, topped off by a 1.5M minute in the early afternoon.
It was my one large after hours purchase, having been away from the screens today. I watched the large sell candle at $38.50 and bought at $38.40 after seeing small time traders bailing in 8 share to 500 share trades. It worked for that institution driving out the weak. Then we had a 60k share buying spree the last 5 minutes of after hours trading.
The set up looks like immediate continuation but if the macro markets have any selling into a double bottom retest that left side daily pattern, I am willing to wager another steak and lobster dinner, will NOT extend beyond Model T pullback.
I haven't pulled up any other charts but will look for my Top 5 and post similar chart findings. As for NIO? Not a single time has it not made a 35% ADDITIONAL trend move upward after posting a 200M+ buy side share day. Not a single time. I like those odds.
You need to see how much resistance it has at the $128.75 area. Break that and it cruises to $136 area to complete a cup.
If you're really feeling spunky you could enter April 9th $120 naked puts for $4. A $116 next entry on further consolidation or pocket $4/share premium. Love all the "options" options give.
I have come to realize many of y'all are pretty damn good at this. I got myself in a pickle because I simply made a few buying errors and didn't want to get out cause I like the stocks long. In the end, I won't get the level of return I would like because my buy in price was too high, but with patience, i should be ok.
My main question for y'all, is assuming we see points below 3700 in the coming week or two, finally bottom out, do you see a U recovery or a V recovery? And do you think summer is too soon to anticipate recovery?
My main question for y'all, is assuming we see points below 3700 in the coming week or two, finally bottom out, do you see a U recovery or a V recovery? And do you think summer is too soon to anticipate recovery?
StrawberryFields said:Thanks, this is a great strategy!oldarmy1 said:I flipped to shares as described on here and outlined the strategy in shorter form just now on twitter.StrawberryFields said:Do you think the April $40 calls would be a good play here?oldarmy1 said:
You see this volume reversal on a stock like NIO and you have a hard major support bottom set. Now the question becomes is the macro market sell off over or more to go? I see all the scenarios people are looking for but NIO should be a first in buy. Amazing volume, topped off by a 1.5M minute in the early afternoon.
It was my one large after hours purchase, having been away from the screens today. I watched the large sell candle at $38.50 and bought at $38.40 after seeing small time traders bailing in 8 share to 500 share trades. It worked for that institution driving out the weak. Then we had a 60k share buying spree the last 5 minutes of after hours trading.
The set up looks like immediate continuation but if the macro markets have any selling into a double bottom retest that left side daily pattern, I am willing to wager another steak and lobster dinner, will NOT extend beyond Model T pullback.
I haven't pulled up any other charts but will look for my Top 5 and post similar chart findings. As for NIO? Not a single time has it not made a 35% ADDITIONAL trend move upward after posting a 200M+ buy side share day. Not a single time. I like those odds.
You need to see how much resistance it has at the $128.75 area. Break that and it cruises to $136 area to complete a cup.
How do you pick which shares you're selling? You change it from FIFO?
ag94whoop said:
I have come to realize many of y'all are pretty damn good at this. I got myself in a pickle because I simply made a few buying errors and didn't want to get out cause I like the stocks long. In the end, I won't get the level of return I would like because my buy in price was too high, but with patience, i should be ok.
My main question for y'all, is assuming we see points below 3700 in the coming week or two, finally bottom out, do you see a U recovery or a V recovery? And do you think summer is too soon to anticipate recovery?
I am far from an expert, but if you are long on a stock then do not follow it by the hour unless you are looking for more opportunities to buy.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
OA - I wouldn't bet against you on NIO because I think you're right, but I would do it to be on the hook for a steak and lobster dinner.
Btw, this is smooth here. Dude takes a willing losing bet to get a visit with OA. Winners win in the end. Kudos.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
McInnis 03 said:$30,000 Millionaire said:
OA - I wouldn't bet against you on NIO because I think you're right, but I would do it to be on the hook for a steak and lobster dinner.
Btw, this is smooth here. Dude takes a willing losing bet to get a visit with OA. Winners win in the end. Kudos.
I guess I should say definitively that yes, I will take the bet, at a steakhouse of winners choosing.
ag94whoop said:
I have come to realize many of y'all are pretty damn good at this. I got myself in a pickle because I simply made a few buying errors and didn't want to get out cause I like the stocks long. In the end, I won't get the level of return I would like because my buy in price was too high, but with patience, i should be ok.
My main question for y'all, is assuming we see points below 3700 in the coming week or two, finally bottom out, do you see a U recovery or a V recovery? And do you think summer is too soon to anticipate recovery?
Don't forget the stock market is not the economy. I think we should be trading at 2750 right now, but here we are. Don't rule out that we can go there again with the specter of rising yields, inflation, and persistently high unemployment. The fed will not deploy yield curve control unless the market goes down first.
Edit: lower your basis with selling covered calls if you are concerned. You can sell at strike price near your cost basis and then gradually walk down with the stock to the point you are comfortable with it. You can also employ collars. Right now could be an OK time for that.
fundamentally sure. But there is a huge backstop to the stock market and that is the corporate 401k indexed to the market.$30,000 Millionaire said:ag94whoop said:
I have come to realize many of y'all are pretty damn good at this. I got myself in a pickle because I simply made a few buying errors and didn't want to get out cause I like the stocks long. In the end, I won't get the level of return I would like because my buy in price was too high, but with patience, i should be ok.
My main question for y'all, is assuming we see points below 3700 in the coming week or two, finally bottom out, do you see a U recovery or a V recovery? And do you think summer is too soon to anticipate recovery?
Don't forget the stock market is not the economy. I think we should be trading at 2750 right now, but here we are. Don't rule out that we can go there again with the specter of rising yields, inflation, and persistently high unemployment. The fed will not deploy yield curve control unless the market goes down first.
It's hard to call a floor and the passive flows help support.
Last night I promised a look at the S&P from a weekly view. Here we go:
As I mentioned last night this past week really accomplished nothing in terms of the broader markets setting a direction. The week opened at 3842.51 and closed at 3841.94 so less than a point difference. The week was higher than the 2/26 close but that was entirely due to the gap we saw Monday morning where we opened at 3843 up from 2/26 close of 3811. Reminder that week ending 2/26 was a substantial red candle with a -2% body that followed a -.8% candle for week ending 2/19. Someone noted a few days ago that we don't get a lot of 3-week red periods so that this week was almost a doji candle isn't a real surprise. The S&P had shed 3.4% the prior two weeks so it taking a break this week was almost to be expected.
What I see that I like is that on the Fib we stayed above the 23.6% line despite Thursday falling below that. Another item of note is that last week's on balance volume was low while this week it was about on par. That would seem to suggest that there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm for the drop and it may have been panic selling from retail. Conversely this week's volume was pretty much even which I think makes sense for a week that really didn't accomplish much.
What I don't like is that despite shedding 3.4% in two weeks the market wasn't able to post a green candle. Like I said earlier all progress this week was pre-market Monday. That's not encouraging to me and makes me think we're going to see another leg down maybe over the next week or two. The 38.2% on the Fib drawn here lands at 3678 and that's the number I'm watching. From here that's 4.5% which is substantial so we could be looking at a big red candle next week or the following week. I guess another option would be a gap down Monday then a small green candle followed by a red candle into 3/19 expirations. I think that's my time target as well. If I'm right that last week's volume shook retail but not institutional my guess is they'll work to keep us where we are or lower through 3/19 then look to build from there. That would represent a good run of no or negative growth and that will shake out a lot of retail investors and create some good entry points for the funds.
My $.02. Worth at least what you paid for it!
As I mentioned last night this past week really accomplished nothing in terms of the broader markets setting a direction. The week opened at 3842.51 and closed at 3841.94 so less than a point difference. The week was higher than the 2/26 close but that was entirely due to the gap we saw Monday morning where we opened at 3843 up from 2/26 close of 3811. Reminder that week ending 2/26 was a substantial red candle with a -2% body that followed a -.8% candle for week ending 2/19. Someone noted a few days ago that we don't get a lot of 3-week red periods so that this week was almost a doji candle isn't a real surprise. The S&P had shed 3.4% the prior two weeks so it taking a break this week was almost to be expected.
What I see that I like is that on the Fib we stayed above the 23.6% line despite Thursday falling below that. Another item of note is that last week's on balance volume was low while this week it was about on par. That would seem to suggest that there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm for the drop and it may have been panic selling from retail. Conversely this week's volume was pretty much even which I think makes sense for a week that really didn't accomplish much.
What I don't like is that despite shedding 3.4% in two weeks the market wasn't able to post a green candle. Like I said earlier all progress this week was pre-market Monday. That's not encouraging to me and makes me think we're going to see another leg down maybe over the next week or two. The 38.2% on the Fib drawn here lands at 3678 and that's the number I'm watching. From here that's 4.5% which is substantial so we could be looking at a big red candle next week or the following week. I guess another option would be a gap down Monday then a small green candle followed by a red candle into 3/19 expirations. I think that's my time target as well. If I'm right that last week's volume shook retail but not institutional my guess is they'll work to keep us where we are or lower through 3/19 then look to build from there. That would represent a good run of no or negative growth and that will shake out a lot of retail investors and create some good entry points for the funds.
My $.02. Worth at least what you paid for it!
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
Aggiesincebirth said:
If you are a long investor, this week was a dream situation for Apple and Amazon. Seeing Amazon at sub $3k is a dream. It won't a ton daily but when Amazon moves it will be a $4,500 stock. I'm in at $850 and I buy on dips. Look at the last consolidation. 1.5 years then 100% up. I think this is a MA stock we don't talk about because it's expensive and too well known
Agreed - I bought some AMZN calls out to June and fully expect them to bring in lotto money
I was curious, so checked volumes and looked for BIG buys on tickers I follow...
NIO takes the cake (as OA mentioned), ran 2.5x volume over average.
PLTR 2nd place at 2x average volume, no massive buys like NIO, but good volume buys all afternoon (after the dip).
SKLZ - almost 2x average volume, steady buying after the dip.
AAPL - 1.5x average volume, some big buys
DNN - had a 25mil green bar in the afternoon at .97. OA buying back his sold shares?
BUT only had 27 mil traded all day (so total only slightly above average).
SOS - almost 2x average volume, strong buying post dump
CCIV - a little above average volume, with big buying into the close.
EBON - not bad, around average volume, strong buying in the afternoon (all the other crypto tickers we are in were laggards
in comparison, even MARA and RIOT).
GBTC was up over average volume though, with nice buys into the close
one of the worst I saw was NXTD, loooow volume, well below average.
TSLA had a big sell in the afternoon right before close.
FUBO was a little below average as well with no huge buys, but not concerned.
NIO takes the cake (as OA mentioned), ran 2.5x volume over average.
PLTR 2nd place at 2x average volume, no massive buys like NIO, but good volume buys all afternoon (after the dip).
SKLZ - almost 2x average volume, steady buying after the dip.
AAPL - 1.5x average volume, some big buys
DNN - had a 25mil green bar in the afternoon at .97. OA buying back his sold shares?
BUT only had 27 mil traded all day (so total only slightly above average).SOS - almost 2x average volume, strong buying post dump
CCIV - a little above average volume, with big buying into the close.
EBON - not bad, around average volume, strong buying in the afternoon (all the other crypto tickers we are in were laggards
in comparison, even MARA and RIOT).
GBTC was up over average volume though, with nice buys into the close
one of the worst I saw was NXTD, loooow volume, well below average.
TSLA had a big sell in the afternoon right before close.
FUBO was a little below average as well with no huge buys, but not concerned.
you all and looking at volume from Friday has changed my mind. permaBrew doomster might be back for a bit!
Back the truck on NIO
The action on NIO looked like an institutional investor dumped their shares all at once. Similar to HLLPF - which burned my butt - good thing I didn't have much of a stake.
I think O&G will be buyable on a pull back. Very extended right now. I probably wouldn't try to short it, but if you are long oil calls, this is a decent place to take profits.
Was curious about this. Was looking for ones that seem to be undervalued right now but seems like a dip would be better for entry. Have had some good success with PSXP but realize it's a little different play. Dividend has been strong.
Attempting to figure out what everyone is saying.... NIO March 19 45-50 Calls on Monday?
Here's $XLE. Looks great if you're in. Wouldn't enter here, though.
I will speak for me - I think this is a really good place to add shares. That does not mean OTM calls are going to pay. They might, but not a trade I'd take until the macro markets are confirmed to have bottomed. NIO will have resistance at 44 and 47.fastgreens said:
Attempting to figure out what everyone is saying.... NIO March 19 45-50 Calls on Monday?
hard to find stocks I like.
$SBUX - somewhat ignoring the indexes, low beta for anyone interested in that. I will buy shares and shoot for a move from 105 to 110.
$SBUX - somewhat ignoring the indexes, low beta for anyone interested in that. I will buy shares and shoot for a move from 105 to 110.
$MMM is the best looking setup I've seen.
OA posted about it. An opportunity to get Apple here is an outstanding value pick-up. Everyone talks about "I want to buy on a pull back". Well, this is the pull back, so buy it.
I like $CSX in a move away from tech to commodities / utilities.
$AMAT could be a good pickup here as well. This can probably be a good options trade.
Hoping $NXTD has bottomed. Here's Model-T / 50% fib, but note reversal not confirmed. 
$EBON same thing that reversal not confirmed. If this does reverse, very high probability this goes to at least $8
Thanks for the help and mucho thanks for the charts each weekend! It's great to be able to look at these while the thread isn't moving so quickly!
last one for today - $NQ has to get to 13100 to touch it's 21 EMA. That could be a failure point or a push through point, so you'll have to watch closely.
30k, what are your thoughts on VEON? Earnings were subpar, but they did announce the agreement with MasterCard. Been relatively stagnant.
Typically gbtc is at a premium in relation to btc. So it is undervalued. Grayscales says it was worth 46 on Friday.LOYAL AG said:AgShaun00 said:
Anyone notice gbtc was less than BTC at closed. If that is true than loading more on Monday.
Don't really follow BTC closely except to the extent I'm in a few related plays. Teach me something here. Why is this significant?
Prophet00 said:
30k, what are your thoughts on VEON? Earnings were subpar, but they did announce the agreement with MasterCard. Been relatively stagnant.
Bullish consolidation. This looks like it held up decently against the market.
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