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LOYAL AG
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AG
This won't be a popular opinion but I think we see continued decline to 3678 ish in the S&P. The Fib drawn here is from the late October dip because it's the most recent pronounced dip we've seen. From this we broke 23.6% today and after flirting with the 50 dma since last Friday we finally broke it today. I could see tomorrow being pretty benign but I think next week we threaten 3678 before we see a reversal.

A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
it's all in high beta stocks. Not doing anything with it.
Charismatic Megafauna
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FJ43 said:

Morning gents! On watch today for sure given where we ended in the macro trend yesterday.

SPY and Qs opening a bit down from yesterday's close really early premarket here. Weird action as normally I see at least some flurry on a few things. But not so far.

This morning feels like....



But surely will be.....



Let's battle. Trade wisely.



That scene left me with confusion and disappointment. Prophetic...
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

it's all in high beta stocks. Not doing anything with it.

Still outperforming most of us it appears!
agdaddy04
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AG
Finally made the decision to move my old 401k into a Fidelity IRA account to take more control over it. Will definitely take a different route than I did from February til this week in my TDA account. Seemed like nothing could go wrong when I was up 20% within the first two weeks. Now down 20%. Going to need to learn more about these hedges.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
LOYAL AG said:

This won't be a popular opinion but I think we see continued decline to 3678 ish in the S&P. The Fib drawn here is from the late October dip because it's the most recent pronounced dip we've seen. From this we broke 23.6% today and after flirting with the 50 dma since last Friday we finally broke it today. I could see tomorrow being pretty benign but I think next week we threaten 3678 before we see a reversal.


quite possible.

The NQ has already gone past the 50% fib level, or as our favorite poster terms it: Model T. I apologize for the busyness of this chart, but some of you may think I am insane for beginning buying today, and I will explain why I started to. I saw volume perk up in the afternoon and evidence of a reversal on the hourly, and I knew we were past the 50%, and then reclaimed it. I may very well end up being foolish, but I did a 1/4 scale this afternoon in some names and a 1/6 scale in after hours.

On NQ, I also added the 200 SMA to this. If we touch that level, I plan to full force buy into quality names.



I'm not going to bet because none of us know what happens tomorrow, but we could take the 38.2 fib level or the 61.8 level. At the 38.2, it may make sense to short again. At the 61.2, it may make sense to go long.
agdaddy04
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AG
Dang, the day ended even worse than I thought. Apparently should've put everything in PSXP when I bought some. Up 20% in two weeks.
ProgN
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agdaddy04 said:

Finally made the decision to move my old 401k into a Fidelity IRA account to take more control over it. Will definitely take a different route than I did from February til this week in my TDA account. Seemed like nothing could go wrong when I was up 20% within the first two weeks. Now down 20%. Going to need to learn more about these hedges.
Are you getting better and more confident with your own interpretations of charts?
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
p.s. if tomorrow is a down day, there is high potential for margin calls on Monday.
agdaddy04
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AG
That's what I'm working on. Was just investing based on recommendations on this thread. However, the fact I dont understand how to execute the option plays has made some of it difficult to follow. Won't put in anymore until I understand it better.
BrokeAssAggie
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LOYAL AG
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Some random thoughts from a guy that trades a bit different than most of the thread:

I feel like there are several here that are panicking over a six day downturn in stocks I THINK they're buying for a mass accumulation play. If so why? Mass accumulation isn't a short term flip it's building up shares for a future big win.

I'm a cash flow trader meaning I buy stocks and sell weekly covered calls fully expecting them to assign in roughly 1-4 weeks. My ideal play is buy Monday, sell the a weekly call at the next strike for a couple of dollars then sell the stock Friday. Target range is 2.5% - 5% for a one week trade.

Right now I hold:

APA - ITM in week 2
DPW
EBON
FUBO
MOMO
PLTR
RDS/A - ITM in week 1
RIOT
SIG - ITM in week 1 for back-to-back weeks
THC - ITM in week 4

Obviously some of those are not one week and some are way bigger than 5% any given week but I do like a good game of craps. Still the four noted ITM are all in that 1-4 week timeframe and I expect to see them all assign tomorrow and if I'm right I'll take $11+ in profit from those assignments. The rest except for MOMO I've held a short period of time and I'm not stressed about at all even though RIOT for example is down $27 from my purchase price and $19 from my cost basis. Why? I'll sell another call next week and keep accumulating premium until it returns to life and assigns. Same for FUBO which I bought at it's peak two weeks ago.

From my perspective as long as the positions are within my time tolerance and there is still a reasonable call option premium to be had for next week's calls I don't stress about a bad day or a bad week. I've had several winners over my life as a trader that I mistimed and 2-4 weeks later (sometimes longer) I'm out with 2x or more the expected profit just over a bit longer period of time.

The point here is when you get into this one of the things you have to figure out is what are your goals then trade to your goals. I've passed on a lot of what the board does because it's not my style. For example I don't buy naked calls and only buy naked puts as a hedge on a stock I'm holding. Yes I've missed out on huge winners and have gotten run over on pullbacks at times but I've not been run out of the game because I don't panic sell. I know my tolerances and I stay within my game. For the new guys that's important. Know what you're trying to accomplish and stick to trades that fit your model. Following OA, FJ, $30K, etc into a trade you don't understand and don't know how to manage is a recipe for disaster.

Right now I see a correction and if my earlier post of 3678 is correct it would amount to a 7.4% pullback from Feb 16 high. Rough but it should not kill you particularly if you're in the MA game most of this board seems to be playing. Heck that should hurt me more because of the week to week nature of what I'm doing. Until I see a broader retreat below that 3678 I'm just going to sit on the positions I have, take my profits tomorrow and enter new positions next week with the same weekly goals.

TLDR - Know yourself, know your goals, plan your work and work your plan. Check those four boxes and you'll be fine.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
DisAg
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

p.s. if tomorrow is a down day, there is high potential for margin calls on Monday.
I was gonna ask, odds GME rips tomorrow near close?
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Great post
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I have no idea. That stock is insane.
LOYAL AG
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

I have no idea. That stock is insane.
I've enjoyed GME like I enjoy a movie, from the safety of my recliner. That's WAY outside of my comfort zone.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
leoj
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AG
FattyDelights
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RIOT has been a great covered call play for many weeks.
ProgN
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agdaddy04 said:

That's what I'm working on. Was just investing based on recommendations on this thread. However, the fact I dont understand how to execute the option plays has made some of it difficult to follow. Won't put in anymore until I understand it better.
My advice is to not try and learn TA all at once or you'll overload yourself, focus on one indicator at a time. There are so many and everyone that uses charts on this thread have 3-4 primary indicators that they favor. Always do your own evaluation of stock ideas presented on this thread and if your favorite indicators confirm the recommendation, then you'll feel more confident making that trade. This will reduce your stress than blindly committing your capital into stock. We've all started at the same spot and I'm confident that everyone on this thread that is further down the path wants you to avoid a costly mistake that we've already made.
agdaddy04
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AG
Thanks for the support.
Jet Black
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LOYAL AG said:

Some random thoughts from a guy that trades a bit different than most of the thread:

I feel like there are several here that are panicking over a six day downturn in stocks I THINK they're buying for a mass accumulation play. If so why? Mass accumulation isn't a short term flip it's building up shares for a future big win.

I'm a cash flow trader meaning I buy stocks and sell weekly covered calls fully expecting them to assign in roughly 1-4 weeks. My ideal play is buy Monday, sell the a weekly call at the next strike for a couple of dollars then sell the stock Friday. Target range is 2.5% - 5% for a one week trade.

Right now I hold:

APA - ITM in week 2
DPW
EBON
FUBO
MOMO
PLTR
RDS/A - ITM in week 1
RIOT
SIG - ITM in week 1 for back-to-back weeks
THC - ITM in week 4

Obviously some of those are not one week and some are way bigger than 5% any given week but I do like a good game of craps. Still the four noted ITM are all in that 1-4 week timeframe and I expect to see them all assign tomorrow and if I'm right I'll take $11+ in profit from those assignments. The rest except for MOMO I've held a short period of time and I'm not stressed about at all even though RIOT for example is down $27 from my purchase price and $19 from my cost basis. Why? I'll sell another call next week and keep accumulating premium until it returns to life and assigns. Same for FUBO which I bought at it's peak two weeks ago.

From my perspective as long as the positions are within my time tolerance and there is still a reasonable call option premium to be had for next week's calls I don't stress about a bad day or a bad week. I've had several winners over my life as a trader that I mistimed and 2-4 weeks later (sometimes longer) I'm out with 2x or more the expected profit just over a bit longer period of time.

The point here is when you get into this one of the things you have to figure out is what are your goals then trade to your goals. I've passed on a lot of what the board does because it's not my style. For example I don't buy naked calls and only buy naked puts as a hedge on a stock I'm holding. Yes I've missed out on huge winners and have gotten run over on pullbacks at times but I've not been run out of the game because I don't panic sell. I know my tolerances and I stay within my game. For the new guys that's important. Know what you're trying to accomplish and stick to trades that fit your model. Following OA, FJ, $30K, etc into a trade you don't understand and don't know how to manage is a recipe for disaster.

Right now I see a correction and if my earlier post of 3678 is correct it would amount to a 7.4% pullback from Feb 16 high. Rough but it should not kill you particularly if you're in the MA game most of this board seems to be playing. Heck that should hurt me more because of the week to week nature of what I'm doing. Until I see a broader retreat below that 3678 I'm just going to sit on the positions I have, take my profits tomorrow and enter new positions next week with the same weekly goals.

TLDR - Know yourself, know your goals, plan your work and work your plan. Check those four boxes and you'll be fine.



Good stuff. I feel like this is what I should be doing.
OutlawAG04
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Agreed great post. I use this strategy on one of my accounts. I often find myself using it on stocks I already have as MA plays, but I go a different route in the sense that I do not treat any of the profits on that account towards lowering my cost average of any MA play. Example:

If I buy Fubo on Monday morning and sell a call for Friday, I'm not booking those gains in my mind towards lowering my cost average on the shares I hold for fubo on a MA basis. it's strictly focused on growth and turnover on that account.

A correction like this does bring caution into play of the unknown. Cash covered puts are getting pretty attractive on a number of quality stocks.

Not sure I'm always hitting the 5% weekly you mentioned but there are usually a decent group on weeklies that hit 2.5-3.5%. Are you factoring the 5% based on mostly selling a cc slightly OTM and getting called out with the additional profit on your entry?
MaroonDynasty
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Prognightmare said:

agdaddy04 said:

That's what I'm working on. Was just investing based on recommendations on this thread. However, the fact I dont understand how to execute the option plays has made some of it difficult to follow. Won't put in anymore until I understand it better.
My advice is to not try and learn TA all at once or you'll overload yourself, focus on one indicator at a time. There are so many and everyone that uses charts on this thread have 3-4 primary indicators that they favor. Always do your own evaluation of stock ideas presented on this thread and if your favorite indicators confirm the recommendation, then you'll feel more confident making that trade. This will reduce your stress than blindly committing your capital into stock. We've all started at the same spot and I'm confident that everyone on this thread that is further down the path wants you to avoid a costly mistake that we've already made.


TMOOSE
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MFR - I saw a lot of order flow today on SPY 393s for Monday. I know you mentioned you think we could test that possibly next week. Picking up anything here?
Let it Ride
Philip J Fry
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AG
agdaddy04 said:

That's what I'm working on. Was just investing based on recommendations on this thread. However, the fact I dont understand how to execute the option plays has made some of it difficult to follow. Won't put in anymore until I understand it better.


For what it's worth, I stick with stocks. I know there is more to be had with options, but that's just a level beyond what I'm current able to comprehend.

Also, most of my investments are mutual funds. I leave a bit on the side for stock trading.
kyle field 94
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AG
LOYAL AG said:

Some random thoughts from a guy that trades a bit different than most of the thread:

I feel like there are several here that are panicking over a six day downturn in stocks I THINK they're buying for a mass accumulation play. If so why? Mass accumulation isn't a short term flip it's building up shares for a future big win.

I'm a cash flow trader meaning I buy stocks and sell weekly covered calls fully expecting them to assign in roughly 1-4 weeks. My ideal play is buy Monday, sell the a weekly call at the next strike for a couple of dollars then sell the stock Friday. Target range is 2.5% - 5% for a one week trade.

Right now I hold:

APA - ITM in week 2
DPW
EBON
FUBO
MOMO
PLTR
RDS/A - ITM in week 1
RIOT
SIG - ITM in week 1 for back-to-back weeks
THC - ITM in week 4

Obviously some of those are not one week and some are way bigger than 5% any given week but I do like a good game of craps. Still the four noted ITM are all in that 1-4 week timeframe and I expect to see them all assign tomorrow and if I'm right I'll take $11+ in profit from those assignments. The rest except for MOMO I've held a short period of time and I'm not stressed about at all even though RIOT for example is down $27 from my purchase price and $19 from my cost basis. Why? I'll sell another call next week and keep accumulating premium until it returns to life and assigns. Same for FUBO which I bought at it's peak two weeks ago.

From my perspective as long as the positions are within my time tolerance and there is still a reasonable call option premium to be had for next week's calls I don't stress about a bad day or a bad week. I've had several winners over my life as a trader that I mistimed and 2-4 weeks later (sometimes longer) I'm out with 2x or more the expected profit just over a bit longer period of time.

The point here is when you get into this one of the things you have to figure out is what are your goals then trade to your goals. I've passed on a lot of what the board does because it's not my style. For example I don't buy naked calls and only buy naked puts as a hedge on a stock I'm holding. Yes I've missed out on huge winners and have gotten run over on pullbacks at times but I've not been run out of the game because I don't panic sell. I know my tolerances and I stay within my game. For the new guys that's important. Know what you're trying to accomplish and stick to trades that fit your model. Following OA, FJ, $30K, etc into a trade you don't understand and don't know how to manage is a recipe for disaster.

Right now I see a correction and if my earlier post of 3678 is correct it would amount to a 7.4% pullback from Feb 16 high. Rough but it should not kill you particularly if you're in the MA game most of this board seems to be playing. Heck that should hurt me more because of the week to week nature of what I'm doing. Until I see a broader retreat below that 3678 I'm just going to sit on the positions I have, take my profits tomorrow and enter new positions next week with the same weekly goals.

TLDR - Know yourself, know your goals, plan your work and work your plan. Check those four boxes and you'll be fine.



I am curious in your riot example

Do you sell the same strike as your original cc sale?

Do you sell sell original call less 27?

Sell original call less 19?

I do some of this same trading (buy writes), but i struggle with what strike price to sell after the first one expired worthless and the share price has fallen a good amount
Cage_Stage
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AG
kyle field 94 said:

LOYAL AG said:

Some random thoughts from a guy that trades a bit different than most of the thread:...

TLDR - Know yourself, know your goals, plan your work and work your plan. Check those four boxes and you'll be fine.



I am curious in your riot example

Do you sell the same strike as your original cc sale?

Do you sell sell original call less 27?

Sell original call less 19?

I do some of this same trading (buy writes), but i struggle with what strike price to sell after the first one expired worthless and the share price has fallen a good amount

To follow on, are there any good articles or videos explaining your strategy? I'd like to know more, especially about how you choose a weekly call to write for a stock that's moved down on you.
LOYAL AG
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AG
kyle field 94 said:

LOYAL AG said:

Some random thoughts from a guy that trades a bit different than most of the thread:

I feel like there are several here that are panicking over a six day downturn in stocks I THINK they're buying for a mass accumulation play. If so why? Mass accumulation isn't a short term flip it's building up shares for a future big win.

I'm a cash flow trader meaning I buy stocks and sell weekly covered calls fully expecting them to assign in roughly 1-4 weeks. My ideal play is buy Monday, sell the a weekly call at the next strike for a couple of dollars then sell the stock Friday. Target range is 2.5% - 5% for a one week trade.

Right now I hold:

APA - ITM in week 2
DPW
EBON
FUBO
MOMO
PLTR
RDS/A - ITM in week 1
RIOT
SIG - ITM in week 1 for back-to-back weeks
THC - ITM in week 4

Obviously some of those are not one week and some are way bigger than 5% any given week but I do like a good game of craps. Still the four noted ITM are all in that 1-4 week timeframe and I expect to see them all assign tomorrow and if I'm right I'll take $11+ in profit from those assignments. The rest except for MOMO I've held a short period of time and I'm not stressed about at all even though RIOT for example is down $27 from my purchase price and $19 from my cost basis. Why? I'll sell another call next week and keep accumulating premium until it returns to life and assigns. Same for FUBO which I bought at it's peak two weeks ago.

From my perspective as long as the positions are within my time tolerance and there is still a reasonable call option premium to be had for next week's calls I don't stress about a bad day or a bad week. I've had several winners over my life as a trader that I mistimed and 2-4 weeks later (sometimes longer) I'm out with 2x or more the expected profit just over a bit longer period of time.

The point here is when you get into this one of the things you have to figure out is what are your goals then trade to your goals. I've passed on a lot of what the board does because it's not my style. For example I don't buy naked calls and only buy naked puts as a hedge on a stock I'm holding. Yes I've missed out on huge winners and have gotten run over on pullbacks at times but I've not been run out of the game because I don't panic sell. I know my tolerances and I stay within my game. For the new guys that's important. Know what you're trying to accomplish and stick to trades that fit your model. Following OA, FJ, $30K, etc into a trade you don't understand and don't know how to manage is a recipe for disaster.

Right now I see a correction and if my earlier post of 3678 is correct it would amount to a 7.4% pullback from Feb 16 high. Rough but it should not kill you particularly if you're in the MA game most of this board seems to be playing. Heck that should hurt me more because of the week to week nature of what I'm doing. Until I see a broader retreat below that 3678 I'm just going to sit on the positions I have, take my profits tomorrow and enter new positions next week with the same weekly goals.

TLDR - Know yourself, know your goals, plan your work and work your plan. Check those four boxes and you'll be fine.



I am curious in your riot example

Do you sell the same strike as your original cc sale?

Do you sell sell original call less 27?

Sell original call less 19?

I do some of this same trading (buy writes), but i struggle with what strike price to sell after the first one expired worthless and the share price has fallen a good amount


Kind of depends. In this case I'll probably suck it up next week and write a $70 call which was the original plan. Not much premium but no risk of a big loss if it runs next week. However the week after next is earnings I think and I'm leery of RIOT during earnings. Right now I'd say I'll look to exit before earnings at the best price I can get. This is one I'm risking a loss on just because of earnings.

The few times I've had them get that far down in the past I've taken less premium to get as close to a profitable assignment as I can. At that point it's either cut your losses or take the time to work out of it. No good answer either way.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
LOYAL AG
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AG
OutlawAG04 said:

Agreed great post. I use this strategy on one of my accounts. I often find myself using it on stocks I already have as MA plays, but I go a different route in the sense that I do not treat any of the profits on that account towards lowering my cost average of any MA play. Example:

If I buy Fubo on Monday morning and sell a call for Friday, I'm not booking those gains in my mind towards lowering my cost average on the shares I hold for fubo on a MA basis. it's strictly focused on growth and turnover on that account.

A correction like this does bring caution into play of the unknown. Cash covered puts are getting pretty attractive on a number of quality stocks.

Not sure I'm always hitting the 5% weekly you mentioned but there are usually a decent group on weeklies that hit 2.5-3.5%. Are you factoring the 5% based on mostly selling a cc slightly OTM and getting called out with the additional profit on your entry?



I think this was for me. Yes, I'm factoring in premium and stock profit though the stock is usually negligible. You're right that 2.5% to 3.5% is practical. That 5% is really my upper limit without looking into why is that high. I've found that on a weekly if profit exceeds 5% its almost always from high IV and that may be due to earnings that week. I don't mind playing through earnings but I want that to be a conscious decision and not an accident from poor research. Thus the 5% is just a flag to research more.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
FJ43
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Great post LOYAL AG and well said.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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Morning!

Hope everyone got some rest and has their game plan on and ready to execute. Each morning is a blessing, yesterday is behind and today is fully ahead.



Trade wisely....
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

59 South
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AG
Morning FJ & team! [fist bump]

I think we're getting fairly close to a reversal, and I'm getting ready to go shopping. Too many indicators hitting my personal quant based 'algo' that is in a constant state of recalculation between the ears. Mostly value investors (mainly O&G) spiking the football on twitter... just need another rare poster or two to show up here throwing some shade, and it's full risk on. This quant algo has a 100% success rate over the past 3 years so I'm rolling with it. #YOLO

I've narrowed down my shopping list and will crowd source what I buy like Ramp Capital does. My goal is to make as much money as quick as possible with minimal risk (lol jk). Goal is to buy at least 200 shares of each so I can set up covered call lots down the road when the rocket gifs and emojis start getting posted.

Buy all 3 approx. in thirds or just one?

  • OSTK
  • PLTR
  • SKLZ

Or just buy more AMZN (can't do covered calls b/c Bozo won't split the GD stock!!! /Red Dog/), or a first buy in AAPL?

Sorry not sorry for being a little cheeky this morning. It's Friday, the last day of virtual schooling for I hope forever, I've got a really neat dermatologist follow up appt here in the next hour, and I'm excited to be alive!

Mind the sig...
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!

Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
59 South
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AG
FJ43
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59 South said:

Morning FJ & team! [fist bump]

I think we're getting fairly close to a reversal, and I'm getting ready to go shopping. Too many indicators hitting my personal quant based 'algo' that is in a constant state of recalculation between the ears. Mostly value investors (mainly O&G) spiking the football on twitter... just need another rare poster or two to show up here throwing some shade, and it's full risk on. This quant algo has a 100% success rate over the past 3 years so I'm rolling with it. #YOLO

I've narrowed down my shopping list and will crowd source what I buy like Ramp Capital does. My goal is to make as much money as quick as possible with minimal risk (lol jk). Goal is to buy at least 200 shares of each so I can set up covered call lots down the road when the rocket gifs and emojis start getting posted.

Buy all 3 approx. in thirds or just one?

  • OSTK
  • PLTR
  • SKLZ

Or just buy more AMZN (can't do covered calls b/c Bozo won't split the GD stock!!! /Red Dog/), or a first buy in AAPL?

Sorry not sorry for being a little cheeky this morning. It's Friday, the last day of virtual schooling for I hope forever, I've got a really neat dermatologist follow up appt here in the next hour, and I'm excited to be alive!

Mind the sig...
Love it ! Lets go !!!

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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59 South said:


Always find reading his, Mancini, etc. notes and comparing those and their charts to my charting, without using theirs to influence me in advance, has been one of the best tests/indicators if I am improving charting skillsets or missing something. Love this stuff.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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