Damn it is much too beautiful of a day outside. Cmon market.
Stock Markets
24,792,737 Views |
233491 Replies |
Last: 2 hrs ago by FishrCoAg
DubFalls said:aggiedaniel06 said:
Something to point out is that 99% of the short term trades on this thread, fintwit and retail in general is purely Beta based and not by finding any Alpha.
This strategy will only be successful in a trending market like we have had since 2016. You can clearly see this on a day like today - markets are barely red and I'm sure many are seeing deep red in their ports due to the high beta names that retail heavily trades.
I see mentions of people wanting to do this for a living. You have to have an alpha based strategy if you ever want to do this for life. If you only rely on beta as a strategy, its always feast or famine, and if you play long enough, you'll incur heavy losses.
Aggie Daniel was around...
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,959
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I think I hit max pain levels just now. No steaks left to throw on the grill, so I made myself a burrito. Now I see that we're out of salsa. We can't go on like this, folks. This is not the way.
If you haven't been eating ramen the past two weeks, you're not punishing yourself correctly.Tomas Hermensa said:
I think I hit max pain levels just now. No steaks left to throw on the grill, so I made myself a burrito. Now I see that we're out of salsa. We can't go on like this, folks. This is not the way.
Tomas Hermensa said:
I'm disappointed that when we first saw the large decline in covid numbers back in early Feb I didn't rotate out of most of my tech and back into recovery/value. Freaking rookie mistake and I'm paying for it bigly. I've given back all of the profits I took for 2021 so far and more.
I rolled out of some tech yesterday and bought some big portions of WWR today under $4.90. The good news is my cash position percentage is growing, but the bad news is that's only because the value of shares and options is deteriorating.
Why is there an expectation with a recovery that tech would tank?
Tomas Hermensa said:
I think I hit max pain levels just now. No steaks left to throw on the grill, so I made myself a burrito. Now I see that we're out of salsa. We can't go on like this, folks. This is not the way.
When I made this post, the signs were clearly there. The huge volatility in the bond market was definitely going to spill over into the equities market. And mainly the steepening of the front end of the yield curve with the rising 10Y treasury yields meant that growth stocks were going to get hammered.
Basically when yields rise, the value of the future earnings of companies (which is what growth promises) is severely diminished and you are seeing that adjustment in valuations across all growth names.
The Fed will have to say or do something to get that front end of the curve flattened for the growth names to rebound.
Basically when yields rise, the value of the future earnings of companies (which is what growth promises) is severely diminished and you are seeing that adjustment in valuations across all growth names.
The Fed will have to say or do something to get that front end of the curve flattened for the growth names to rebound.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,959
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AgEng06 said:DubFalls said:aggiedaniel06 said:
Something to point out is that 99% of the short term trades on this thread, fintwit and retail in general is purely Beta based and not by finding any Alpha.
This strategy will only be successful in a trending market like we have had since 2016. You can clearly see this on a day like today - markets are barely red and I'm sure many are seeing deep red in their ports due to the high beta names that retail heavily trades.
I see mentions of people wanting to do this for a living. You have to have an alpha based strategy if you ever want to do this for life. If you only rely on beta as a strategy, its always feast or famine, and if you play long enough, you'll incur heavy losses.
Aggie Daniel was around...
After reading that I got into wide ranged, especially to the low side, condors of some high-beta, high-premium stocks. Now most of those are dropping out of that range. Still time though, but it sucks to plan around something and your plan still be in jeopardy. Live and learn I guess.
My portfolio looked a lot better when my net free small caps were shooting up and not crashing down
leoj said:
$QQQ failed at $311 again
There we go
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,768
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Expecting Operation Twist by Powell to be re engaged?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,959
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I think there was always the risk that if tech growth stopped, because it was more overvalued compared to earnings, that as other sectors began to recover we'd see rotation out of tech. I think that's at least some of what this is.
Is it too much to ask for a boost of volume??
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,959
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I know you look at proprietary indicators, but is there a basic bond yield indicator that we should be looking at, at least weekly, as part of our trading prep?
well, I BTFD, let's go!
props to FJ for the March 400C idea. I'm in those too.
You can buy a WWR August 5C, sell the 7.5C for .5 (give or take some depending on the fill). 5/10 would be .75. Anyone try this?
props to FJ for the March 400C idea. I'm in those too.
You can buy a WWR August 5C, sell the 7.5C for .5 (give or take some depending on the fill). 5/10 would be .75. Anyone try this?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,959
How long do you want to ignore this user?
khaos288 said:If you haven't been eating ramen the past two weeks, you're not punishing yourself correctly.Tomas Hermensa said:
I think I hit max pain levels just now. No steaks left to throw on the grill, so I made myself a burrito. Now I see that we're out of salsa. We can't go on like this, folks. This is not the way.
Update: The wife just found salsa and made some iced tea. I'm good now.
They way I've been thinking about it is that tech stocks were soaring as "stay at home" plays and now we're transitioning to "open up" plays.
Water Turkey07
aggiedaniel06 said:
When I made this post, the signs were clearly there. The huge volatility in the bond market was definitely going to spill over into the equities market. And mainly the steepening of the front end of the yield curve with the rising 10Y treasury yields meant that growth stocks were going to get hammered.
Basically when yields rise, the value of the future earnings of companies (which is what growth promises) is severely diminished and you are seeing that adjustment in valuations across all growth names.
The Fed will have to say or do something to get that front end of the curve flattened for the growth names to rebound.
As a newbie I made a number of mistakes the last month or so. Buying incorrectly, not selling and taking losses early.
Not hedging correctly. It's a painful lesson but one I have to learn.
What are the odds Powell and the Fed actually do what you
Mentioned and the growth stocks rebound?
At this point I just want to get back to breakeven, cash out and start over.
I dont know if it will be today, but I expect the Fed to unleash the last major tool they have left in the bag, which is YCC to fix the decimation in long term bonds.
My reasoning is that the Fed has copied every move that BOJ has made. Like playing a predetermined chess match move for move. So going by that the next move is YCC.
Most of the time the fed is just jawboning, as they want to give the impression that everything is fine or that they have the power to fix absolutely anything, when in reality our whole financial system is one big pile of ammonium nitrate.
My reasoning is that the Fed has copied every move that BOJ has made. Like playing a predetermined chess match move for move. So going by that the next move is YCC.
Most of the time the fed is just jawboning, as they want to give the impression that everything is fine or that they have the power to fix absolutely anything, when in reality our whole financial system is one big pile of ammonium nitrate.
$WWR $5 whiplash again!
Time to go tweet about PLTR waking up, maybe my massive following can trick an algo.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,768
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I appreciate the response.
Gonna be a volatile ride which I'm ready for.
Gonna be a volatile ride which I'm ready for.
Freaking Redler stealing my thunder.CrazyRichAggie said:McInnis 03 said:
Time to go tweet about PLTR waking up, maybe my massive following can trick an algo.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
I encourage everyone to look at the Nikkei Index from 1991 to today.
What happens to the $BUZZ ETF when it is all anyone is talking about on social media? The algo can't make the stock buy itself... or can it??
Let it ride
10 minutes to JPOW. Squeeze.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
is iced tea slang for something else? I'm afraid I'd require "something else" !Tomas Hermensa said:khaos288 said:If you haven't been eating ramen the past two weeks, you're not punishing yourself correctly.Tomas Hermensa said:
I think I hit max pain levels just now. No steaks left to throw on the grill, so I made myself a burrito. Now I see that we're out of salsa. We can't go on like this, folks. This is not the way.
Update: The wife just found salsa and made some iced tea. I'm good now.
ClutchCityAg said:
What happens to the $BUZZ ETF when it is all anyone is talking about on social media? The algo can't make the stock buy itself... or can it??
This is the thesis for ARKK
are we saying Japan inflation is what we could experience? no bueno.DubFalls said:
I encourage everyone to look at the Nikkei Index from 1991 to today.
Sweet rounding bottom, LFG NIKKEIDubFalls said:
I encourage everyone to look at the Nikkei Index from 1991 to today.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
Any guesses how this goes?
No guess, but the market will go bonkers one way or another and blame Jpow.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
LOL, glass is half full McFly, I like it.McInnis 03 said:Sweet rounding bottom, LFG NIKKEIDubFalls said:
I encourage everyone to look at the Nikkei Index from 1991 to today.
Featured Stories
See All
19:50
20h ago
4.6k
Donors can now earn priority points by giving to Texas Aggies United
by Texas Aggies United
5 Thoughts: No. 23 Texas A&M 78, No. 21 Ohio State 64
by Luke Evangelist
A&M's approach remains the same with NMSU coming to Aggieland
by Olin Buchanan
116:42
9m ago
253
27:22
9h ago
3.6k