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AgsnFly
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ag94whoop said:

AgsnFly said:

ag94whoop said:

Well today has been an absolute bloodbath for me. A week ago I was up 20% for the year. As of now I'm down 20% for the year I've lost 40% of my value in my trading account in in three days. Holy crap. Tough lesson to learn.



Not to lecture but trading is all about discipline. This should never happen to a trader - investors are different. Which are you? Disciplined traders take losses when markets say they are wrong. Use stops if you are trading and think of high water marks on your account.
Despite years of experience in business and entrepreneurship, I am literally a newborn in trading.
First ever trade was Jan 14, 2021, literally 6 weeks experience.

No one has directly taught me anything and what I have learned I learned on youtube and on here from you gentlemen, although sometimes I feel like yall speak a completely different language...lol. I missed OAs previous course. I started by swing trading stuff I knew like SNAP, UPWK, HD, APPL, SDC, PINS, PENN etc and frankly did ok, but the market was always good so I guess in hindsight any dummy could have done as well. I then followed a few Texags buys like WWR, EBON, ONTX, XL etc and made even better money. SO I then dove hard into CLOV, WWR again at higher price, DPW, and a bunch of others and I now know I missed the buys on several and the market has tanked on them all.

I dont ever day trade, but what I was primarily doing was swing trading for income with 2 day to 2 week target flips. While I am slowly learning charting, and can see market swings to a degree, I am very raw and inexperienced and there is SO much I dont know. I fully admit I am poor at understanding options trading and since I dont understand it well I dont do it, which kills some of my ability to hedge. I know I need to learn this. I am signed up to take OA's class this Saturday, although I coach soccer and may not be able to watch live unless it rains.

In addition, I am using You Invest which I dont think is very user friendly and I am not sure how to set stop losses on it. I have been doing everything manually outside of limit buy and sells.

I realize I made several poor buy price decisions and several poor "non sale" decisions. Those are wrecking me big time. But I DO think they may be good long term, although the continuous daily sliding is concerning.

From Jan 14 to Feb 4 I traded for $32k in realized gain. Since then, that has completely eroded (mostly in the last few days) to a $8k loss. At this point, I honestly dont know how to proceed. My gut instinct is that my 4 biggest current losers (WWR, CLOV, DPW and TLRY) will rebound at some point and become profitable if I am willing to hold them for months. Not sure what to do with the rest. I know the first thing I need to do is learn how to trade options so I can attempt to hedge.

I dont have any problem humbly admitting that I dont know what I am doing and love to hear guidance from a bunch of good Ags. I know yall will help and eventually I will learn this stuff and begin to make some money at it.

I would only add that you always remember that a trader's success is reliant on the cardinal rules of trading. Of these rules, some of the most important are the need to be patient with the winners and impatient with the losers.
This thinking is contrary to human nature which generally results with traders wanting to take profits quickly and sit on losers until they are successful. Human nature demands success and wanting to be successful on a trade keeps us from being disciplined in taking a loss that salvages our trading account.
This mindset works best when trading a trend and is the best path to wealth accumulation. Trading markets where mean reversion is paramount is a bit different but the rules still apply. Best wishes
irish pete ag06
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So during this time... I'd like to ask the seasoned folks on here about stop losses.

Do you use them?
What is your best way to determine them?
Scale them out or all or nothing?

I understand there's many ways to skin this cat and you're not financial advisors. Would just love to hear some systems used.
ag94whoop
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Slappy007 said:

ag94whoop said:

Aggiesincebirth said:

ag94whoop said:

I feel like CLOV is playing a game of limbo....how low can you go?!!
I am actually worried i am going to wake up tomorrow and it will be $0. I have never seen a stock that is this well liked, fall 50% in 2 weeks with constant 8% down days and no up days. Even after hours down another 5%. Very frustrating to watch.
Yeah even as a total newbie this makes no business sense to me.

The only thing I can think is that this is a massive shorting by several parties, who probably pressed for the Hindenburg report, then contracted with 6-8 firms to file CALs and drive the price down. I just wonder where bottom is for them. I really thought $10 was bottom.....actually I thought $12, then 11, then $10.
Can anyone find out how high % of float is shorted? Yahoo says N/A for % of float but 4.91% of outstanding shares. I am wondering if this is just a case of the short sellers over doing it and driving it a little too hard down and creating a panic. IDK....but I would never have thought WWR would fall back into the $5s either....so wth do i know...lol
CLOV reminds me of FSR back in late October. My guess is it may potentially sink another $1 or so, but you'll want to be involved in the ride back up.
the main issue for me ATM is my avg cost is still high, like $13.75....I own too much to buy more and avg down at this point. Kind wishing I had sold in 12s and bought back now....but I didnt have the foresight nor obiviously any idea it would fall this far.
ag94whoop
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AgsnFly said:

ag94whoop said:

AgsnFly said:

ag94whoop said:

Well today has been an absolute bloodbath for me. A week ago I was up 20% for the year. As of now I'm down 20% for the year I've lost 40% of my value in my trading account in in three days. Holy crap. Tough lesson to learn.



Not to lecture but trading is all about discipline. This should never happen to a trader - investors are different. Which are you? Disciplined traders take losses when markets say they are wrong. Use stops if you are trading and think of high water marks on your account.
Despite years of experience in business and entrepreneurship, I am literally a newborn in trading.
First ever trade was Jan 14, 2021, literally 6 weeks experience.

No one has directly taught me anything and what I have learned I learned on youtube and on here from you gentlemen, although sometimes I feel like yall speak a completely different language...lol. I missed OAs previous course. I started by swing trading stuff I knew like SNAP, UPWK, HD, APPL, SDC, PINS, PENN etc and frankly did ok, but the market was always good so I guess in hindsight any dummy could have done as well. I then followed a few Texags buys like WWR, EBON, ONTX, XL etc and made even better money. SO I then dove hard into CLOV, WWR again at higher price, DPW, and a bunch of others and I now know I missed the buys on several and the market has tanked on them all.

I dont ever day trade, but what I was primarily doing was swing trading for income with 2 day to 2 week target flips. While I am slowly learning charting, and can see market swings to a degree, I am very raw and inexperienced and there is SO much I dont know. I fully admit I am poor at understanding options trading and since I dont understand it well I dont do it, which kills some of my ability to hedge. I know I need to learn this. I am signed up to take OA's class this Saturday, although I coach soccer and may not be able to watch live unless it rains.

In addition, I am using You Invest which I dont think is very user friendly and I am not sure how to set stop losses on it. I have been doing everything manually outside of limit buy and sells.

I realize I made several poor buy price decisions and several poor "non sale" decisions. Those are wrecking me big time. But I DO think they may be good long term, although the continuous daily sliding is concerning.

From Jan 14 to Feb 4 I traded for $32k in realized gain. Since then, that has completely eroded (mostly in the last few days) to a $8k loss. At this point, I honestly dont know how to proceed. My gut instinct is that my 4 biggest current losers (WWR, CLOV, DPW and TLRY) will rebound at some point and become profitable if I am willing to hold them for months. Not sure what to do with the rest. I know the first thing I need to do is learn how to trade options so I can attempt to hedge.

I dont have any problem humbly admitting that I dont know what I am doing and love to hear guidance from a bunch of good Ags. I know yall will help and eventually I will learn this stuff and begin to make some money at it.

I would only add that you always remember that a trader's success is reliant on the cardinal rules of trading. Of these rules, some of the most important are the need to be patient with the winners and impatient with the losers.
This thinking is contrary to human nature which generally results with traders wanting to take profits quickly and sit on losers until they are successful. Human nature demands success and wanting to be successful on a trade keeps us from being disciplined in taking a loss that salvages our trading account.
This mindset works best when trading a trend and is the best path to wealth accumulation. Trading markets where mean reversion is paramount is a bit different but the rules still apply. Best wishes
Really appreciate the advice and knowledge. Someday I wish I could sit down with several of yall and just walk though my portfolio, give me thoughts and ways to improve my strategy, help me learn the language (I spent the last 20+ years operating in startups designing and engineering led lighting systems so most of this trading lingo is completely new to me) and concepts that are native to the trading world are not in my repertoire.
Brewmaster
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Jet Black said:

What are the thoughts on FUBO?


All in. I got back in on a good dip, but this is in a long term acct (ira). I'm selling cc's on it as well. There is quite a bit of big $ in it now. They might pull a fruit stock on it thru march expiration, but after that, She gone!
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Talked to FJ today. We both agreed that a Sunday post with our hedges would be a good idea.

In a sideways market, being really good at playing weekly SPY or QQQ calls/puts can create good habits and have insurance against your holds.

I'm telling most of you newbies, if you don't hedge against your one sided plays, you won't last long in a market that isn't a bull market on steroids.

I see a lot of panic, and it doesn't have to be. Hedges are insurance and in large corrections they can pay out big. I saw a guy have 5K in March weekly puts last year turn that into a 50 bagger.
David_Puddy
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mazag08 said:

WWR 50% retracement from it's high is $5.67. If it holds that through tomorrow, you know what to do.

Currently right on that # AH
Ukraine Gas Expert
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For the newbies like myself, I appreciate this information. I'm in OAs class Saturday, but a further explanation about how to play them will help me, and any who haven't had his class yet.

backintexas2013
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BTC still taking a beating. Was hoping it would hold $47,000 or so
FJ43
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Red Rover said:

FJ43 said:


Funny how this all works. I present today's SPY in the white box. Ended basically same place we visited just 2 days ago.



So should we have used the dead cat bounce to get out of plays more volatile right now and shore up cash position? Did I miss an easy read on yesterday?
I did not exit any plays that are long today however I did close out short term trades or that I didn't know intimately TA wise. I did add to a few positions I have conviction on longer term, picked up OA's NCLH options opportunity alert, used today to buy back covered calls and sold a few puts strategically.

Beyond that I worked the hedges like a rib. I stayed basically flat trading account wise but generated realized gains via SPY, QQQ and UVXY puts in and out multiple times today.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

irish pete ag06
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AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Talked to FJ today. We both agreed that a Sunday post with our hedges would be a good idea.

In a sideways market, being really good at playing weekly SPY or QQQ calls/puts can create good habits and have insurance against your holds.

I'm telling most of you newbies, if you don't hedge against your one sided plays, you won't last long in a market that isn't a bull market on steroids.

I see a lot of panic, and it doesn't have to be. Hedges are insurance and in large corrections they can pay out big. I saw a guy have 5K in March weekly puts last year turn that into a 50 bagger.


Dude, I know I would love to see these.
FJ43
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McInnis 03 said:

Volume warning


You win! POTD by far.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BrokeAssAggie
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Talked to FJ today. We both agreed that a Sunday post with our hedges would be a good idea.

In a sideways market, being really good at playing weekly SPY or QQQ calls/puts can create good habits and have insurance against your holds.

I'm telling most of you newbies, if you don't hedge against your one sided plays, you won't last long in a market that isn't a bull market on steroids.

I see a lot of panic, and it doesn't have to be. Hedges are insurance and in large corrections they can pay out big. I saw a guy have 5K in March weekly puts last year turn that into a 50 bagger.


Agreed. I'm a newbie for sure. I picked up some 3/19 $350 SPY puts yesterday and sold them today for a 100% gain. If we are green tomorrow I will pick up some more.
Ragoo
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AG
How impatient with losers are you?
kyledr04
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Do you think of covered calls as hedges too? Up to a point, I had stocks with covered calls that were still green. They were eventually red but the calls helped. Until I started following this thread I never thought about the value of a covered call.
BrokeAssAggie
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kyledr04 said:

Do you think of covered calls as hedges too? Up to a point, I had stocks with covered calls that were still green. They were eventually red but the calls helped. I started following this thread I never thought about the value of a covered call.


I sold some of my CC Tuesday for a nice gain and plan to pick some more up once we see a nice bounce.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Foggy / FJ - happy to participate if I can help you guys.
Monywolf
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backintexas2013 said:

BTC still taking a beating. Was hoping it would hold $47,000 or so
BTC can drop much more before I'd consider it taking a beating.
Brewmaster
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AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Talked to FJ today. We both agreed that a Sunday post with our hedges would be a good idea.

In a sideways market, being really good at playing weekly SPY or QQQ calls/puts can create good habits and have insurance against your holds.

I'm telling most of you newbies, if you don't hedge against your one sided plays, you won't last long in a market that isn't a bull market on steroids.

I see a lot of panic, and it doesn't have to be. Hedges are insurance and in large corrections they can pay out big. I saw a guy have 5K in March weekly puts last year turn that into a 50 bagger.
Yeah, say when, I'm in! I would definitely love to hear it and 30k has volunteered his expertise as well
ag94whoop
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Foggy / FJ - happy to participate if I can help you guys.
if all three of yall did a zoom or teams meeting to explain some easy hedges in language to us guys that have no idea how to properly play options etc that would be pretty cool
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Your advice is always welcome. I'm thinking of starting with just SPY so we don't get spread too thin.

Post levels. Above x, buy y. Below x, buy z. Maybe talk about sizing on hedges versus your calls or holds.

FJ43
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Foggy / FJ - happy to participate if I can help you guys.
PLEASE. You're way more than help man. Your hedging strategies and insight would be invaluable to everyone on the forum.

Wish we would have started this a few weeks ago when you started posting some heads up warnings. Don't think we spend near enough time on this subject on this thread. Better late than never I guess and hope everyone finds value in it.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In a bull market like we've had, monthly hedges typically work better or smaller sized weeklies.

But when you start farting around at a top and have jerky movements intra week, IMO, weekly hedges are my jam. I do it in volatility mostly, but it will be harder to explain volatility hedging and volatility disconnects from index movements than just doing SPY, QQQ.
Ornithopter
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I am thankful for this board. I have hedges I don't fully understand how to use, but right now my March IWM 216P are almost in the money.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Some quick thoughts:

Very high probability that we will rally to touch the 8/21 on SPX/NDX. At that point, it can puke, or it can cross over and rally. The fed could come out with really accommodative language, and this could end up being a bear trap. I probably wouldn't try to short from here, but I would try to short from the 8/21. We are still in an uptrend, so it is unlikely that this is the beginning of the end.

I'll end up booking trading gains this week, largely through my efforts on Monday / Tuesday. If I had to pick a bias, I tend to think tomorrow is flat or up, maybe even with a decent short covering rally. If tomorrow is a significant down day, Monday could be very ugly. Bulls will not give up easily. Nearly everyone 'lost' money today. My account is down by at least the value of a new lamborghini. If only I had timed things better.

Couple charts for you guys:

$ES_F is at -1 ATR and had a 2 ATR move. That's really big. Retracement rally likely. If you are short and want to hold your shorts, I would exit before -2 ATR. It is unlikely the bottom falls out past that.



Extreme move in treasuries. The squeeze has fired long and the RSI for this bad boy is 2.3. I think this is due for an 8 EMA reconnect and ultimately a mean reversion. I may short or sell spreads against treasuries. I do not think it can stay at these levels for long. It closed at a roughly +4 ATR move. If this goes to +5, I will likely perform a 10% position short.




FJ43
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

In a bull market like we've had, monthly hedges typically work better or smaller sized weeklies.

But when you start farting around at a top and have jerky movements intra week, IMO, weekly hedges are my jam. I do it in volatility mostly, but it will be harder to explain volatility hedging and volatility disconnects from index movements than just doing SPY, QQQ.
Think its important we discuss hedging for all sizes of accounts. While its like an insurance premium you may not need, if you do they don't have to be expensive to work short term and you'll be happy you did. SPY and QQQ can be easy one to discuss as well as you suggest. I am sure 30k has some effective plays to share also. After all he needs to protect his new Webull account!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

E
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AG
Yikes, my account has gone down 3.5% since close at 3pm... and still going
Jet Black
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BREwmaster said:

Jet Black said:

What are the thoughts on FUBO?


All in. I got back in on a good dip, but this is in a long term acct (ira). I'm selling cc's on it as well. There is quite a bit of big $ in it now. They might pull a fruit stock on it thru march expiration, but after that, She gone!


Thanks!
BlueTaze
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$88 on DXY is also support to watch. If dollar is bottoming and heading into a squeeze we know what that could mean for asset prices.

Also, for put buyers and hedgers, SEAS looks like it may present a good opportunity above $50.
Chef Elko
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AH has been bad. Come on market, give me the 5th digit already and at least I'll have a cool battle scar!
$30,000 Millionaire
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Here, some simple suggestions on strategies. While the market could sell from here, this is not really where you want to try to hedge or short from. You want a retracement bounce before you consider it.



Some choices to consider:

  • Buy shares in SH around SPX 3860 (mean reversion). Decide your stop obviously
  • Buy shares in SPXS or SPXU. You can also buy calls in these as a hedge. This is what OA does. I personally am carrying SPXU shares because I believe the EOY will tank and I want some flexibility for when it does go gangbusters to the downside
  • Buy monthly long puts at the retracement point. You can go OTM to get more options cheaper or you can go ATM if you want better theta decay economics. if you are targeting SPY 375, I would enter SPY 370P or 375P
  • Buy put debit spreads, likely SPY 380/360 or even 380/365. The short puts will help offset the cost of the long puts and make theta decay easier to stomach. Your profit is capped, but it is unlikely we go below SPY 365, given that is around the -3 ATR range
  • Buy put butterflies that are sufficiently wide. For example, SPY 380/360/340 or 380/365/350. 380/370/360 will be the cheapest but are the least forgiving. Remember with butterflies that you have to be right on both the time and the price

For me personally, I cashed hedged on Monday near the bottom. I did not reload because I am waiting for the retracement. In hindsight, I obviously would have.

Don't get too caught up in trying to be bearish, the macro trend is still up

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
the current futures movement is actually really healthy for a rally tomorrow. Don't overly focus on AH positions. Volume is muted and extreme moves happen.


TMOOSE
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Thank you! Will you post if you enter spy puts in the morning?
Let it Ride
LarryL
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Here, some simple suggestions on strategies. While the market could sell from here, this is not really where you want to try to hedge or short from. You want a retracement bounce before you consider it.



Some choices to consider:

  • Buy shares in SH around SPX 3860 (mean reversion). Decide your stop obviously
  • Buy shares in SPXS or SPXU. You can also buy calls in these as a hedge. This is what OA does. I personally am carrying SPXU shares because I believe the EOY will tank and I want some flexibility for when it does go gangbusters to the downside
  • Buy monthly long puts at the retracement point. You can go OTM to get more options cheaper or you can go ATM if you want better theta decay economics. if you are targeting SPY 375, I would enter SPY 370P or 375P
  • Buy put debit spreads, likely SPY 380/360 or even 380/365. The short puts will help offset the cost of the long puts and make theta decay easier to stomach. Your profit is capped, but it is unlikely we go below SPY 365, given that is around the -3 ATR range
  • Buy put butterflies that are sufficiently wide. For example, SPY 380/360/340 or 380/365/350. 380/370/360 will be the cheapest but are the least forgiving. Remember with butterflies that you have to be right on both the time and the price

For me personally, I cashed hedged on Monday near the bottom. I did not reload because I am waiting for the retracement. In hindsight, I obviously would have.

Don't get too caught up in trying to be bearish, the macro trend is still up



How much SPXS/SPXU do you buy as a hedge? Say for a $100,000 trading account, what would be an appropriate $ amount as hedge? Also, do you put stops on those to cut losses if the market takes off?
BrokeAssAggie
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OA rule of thumb is 2 to 3% of profits, I think. Someone can correct me. no stops. Think of it as insurance.
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