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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to FJ43 • 9:39p, 2/18/21
FJ43 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Everyone thinks tomorrow will be a red day. Wonder what will happen.
The opposite of what everyone always thinks.

Unless everyone already knows that the opposite will happen, which case it CLEARLY can't behave the opposite of how we'd think.

https://giphy.com/gifs/filmeditor-the-princess-bride-l2YWy7C9BvHZfmLCM
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:45p, 2/18/21
AG
Basically after a stock makes a huge move in either direction, the premiums are going to be so insanely juiced (many times both for calls and puts) that you would short volatility here. The secret sauce though is figuring out when the move is over or close to being over. Y'all try to figure this out through TA. We do that using vol as the indicator. In an options heavy market, we believe its the best indicator as the tail seems to wag the dog a lot these days. Obviously this works better on some names vs others.

Y'all do this trade on your own way by selling puts or cc's (thats essentially shorting vol), but then you are still making a directional bet. In this strat mentioned, we remain delta neutral and that neutrality is maintained through dynamic hedging done by an algo until the position is closed.

Also, re AAPL monthly OPEX weeks are generally vol killers. Thats why playing stuff like butterflies, or selling cc's into opex makes sense.
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Brewmaster
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9:48p, 2/18/21
AG
so long 3282 pages!

I must say page 3282 was a thing of beauty. Aggiedaniel sighting (and another must read post above this one!), 30k, MFR, Bob Knight's Liver, FJ, Ragoo and I know I'm forgetting 1 or 2. Just needed OA, Prog and some Irishman popping in and it would've been epic.

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Ragoo
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 9:53p, 2/18/21
AG
aggiedaniel06 said:
Yes theta positive.

When you buy an option, you're long vol, theta -ve and when vice versa when you sell an option.
so lots of iron condors out 30-60days
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SquareOne07
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9:53p, 2/18/21
AG
So if Monday is Green Daygo in with more cash or go in with strong positions?
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 9:58p, 2/18/21
aggiedaniel06 said:
Also, re AAPL monthly OPEX weeks are generally vol killers. Thats why playing stuff like butterflies, or selling cc's into opex makes sense.
The sad thing is I knew this, but I still couldn't resist loading up the truck when these calls got below $0.10. It was like having a coupon for the roulette wheel. I need to have a big poster printed that just says "Feb19 AAPL Calls" and hang it in my office so that the next time I want to do something like that I'll shame myself out of it. Or at least I'll keep it under $100.
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to Brewmaster • 10:20p, 2/18/21
Who knows, but tomorrow is a historically bearish day.
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AgPrognosticator
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 10:42p, 2/18/21
AG
lobwedgephil said:
Who knows, but tomorrow is a historically bearish day.


Tomorrow as in the Friday after Pres. day? What do you mean when you say "tomorrow"?
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bmks270
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In reply to FJ43 • 10:42p, 2/18/21
AG
FJ43 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Everyone thinks tomorrow will be a red day. Wonder what will happen.
The opposite of what everyone always thinks.
since I've been paying attention I've noticed if there is a big move up or down, the following day most often moves the opposite direction. So I'd say it's more likely to be green. That has been true in this long bull market we've had.
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kyle field 94
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11:43p, 2/18/21
AG
I know that there are several ags here that work in the power and natgas trading markets.

Has anyone figured out who is doing well with the sky high power prices?

Would it be the likes of vistra and calpine? Any other large producers? I know that all producers hedge the majority or it's power forward, but vistra has publicly said that at least in the summer that they are running a long book to try to capitalize on these power spikes.

Presumably all companies that are selling to the residential customers are hurting. I am sure that they hedge as good as possible, but no one could have predicted (and therefore hedged) the huge spike in demand.

I bought vistra on this basis, but looking for others as well

Maybe even smaller natgas producers that sell on local basis pricing points. It only takes a day or 2 to have huge profits when you sell or price out your gas at 100$ per mmbtu or higher

Have heard that comstock gas has been a beneficiary or this. Any others?
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agdaddy04
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12:47a, 2/19/21
AG
Weird occurrence with one of my positions today. Regarding TSCRD it won't show increase/decrease chart and also shows my trade price was $0.00. Anyone else see something like that on TOS?
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 12:50a, 2/19/21
Baby Billy
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In reply to AgPrognosticator • 1:02a, 2/19/21
AG
AgPrognosticator said:
lobwedgephil said:
Who knows, but tomorrow is a historically bearish day.


Tomorrow as in the Friday after Pres. day? What do you mean when you say "tomorrow"?

He doesn't know.
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FJ43
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3:26a, 2/19/21
Morning gents!

Things trying to be green. Let's go!

Trade wisely.



Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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59 South
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In reply to FJ43 • 3:30a, 2/19/21
AG
Morning Sir!

Trade wisely? So what weekly OTM calls we buying at the open?!?
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FJ43
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In reply to 59 South • 3:33a, 2/19/21
59 South said:
Morning Sir!

Trade wisely? So what weekly OTM calls we buying at the open?!?
Man you crazy.....

I better keep my sanity today. My youngest son is getting married today so other than from now until about 8:00AM EST not much trading for me. Going to be a busy day with rehearsals, family, wedding and honey 'do's.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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4:03a, 2/19/21
NXTD up 20% at the moment.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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In reply to FJ43 • 5:33a, 2/19/21
FJ43
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In reply to [removed post] • 5:44a, 2/19/21
third coast.. said:
Congrats!
Thanks Proud parents we are.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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kyledr04
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6:07a, 2/19/21
AG
Bought a some NXTD yesterday. Also sold the July $5 covered calls on some for $1. Felt like a good deal. Selling for $6 in a few months would be more than net free on my other shares.
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KY-AG 10
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6:14a, 2/19/21
AG
Here comes the comeback...
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McInnis 03
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6:18a, 2/19/21
AG
FRX is still running
PLTR turnt up
NVDA 600c lottos may ignite
AAPL 131p flys look to pay (hesitated posting this one)

I'll take this start
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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FJ43
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 6:26a, 2/19/21
McInnis 03 said:
FRX is still running
PLTR turnt up
NVDA 600c lottos may ignite
AAPL 131p flys look to pay (hesitated posting this one)

I'll take this start
I think fruit and I need to go to counseling to see if we can work things out.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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OutlawAG04
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:47a, 2/19/21
FJ43 said:
McInnis 03 said:
FRX is still running
PLTR turnt up
NVDA 600c lottos may ignite
AAPL 131p flys look to pay (hesitated posting this one)

I'll take this start
I think fruit and I need to go to counseling to see if we can work things out.


Maybe they can give us a discount for a group session with the fruit haha!
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Rice and Fries
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6:50a, 2/19/21
New Blockchain miner to propose

ARBKF - Argo Blockchain has a higher hash rate then most other miners like MARA and RIOT. Is opening a new facility here in Texas with a joint venture. They plan to double their hash rate from 770 PH/s to 1600 PH/s by end of Q2.

They've also been a bit undervalued compared RIOT and MARA, but they're also a UK based company.

https://www.coindesk.com/argo-blockchain-plans-new-bitcoin-mining-facility-in-texas?amp=1
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Rice and Fries • 6:57a, 2/19/21
Rice and Fries said:
New Blockchain miner to propose

ARBKF - Argo Blockchain has a higher hash rate then most other miners like MARA and RIOT. Is opening a new facility here in Texas with a joint venture. They plan to double their hash rate from 770 PH/s to 1600 PH/s by end of Q2.

They've also been a bit undervalued compared RIOT and MARA, but they're also a UK based company.

https://www.coindesk.com/argo-blockchain-plans-new-bitcoin-mining-facility-in-texas?amp=1

This would have been a great buy in December.
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sts7049
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7:01a, 2/19/21
AG
seeing some chatter on twitter about $SUPV as a blockchain play with some good potential. and they have options.
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J.P. 03
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In reply to 59 South • 7:02a, 2/19/21
AG
59 South said:
Morning Sir!

Trade wisely? So what weekly OTM calls we buying at the open?!?

PLTR $27s
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59 South
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In reply to J.P. 03 • 7:07a, 2/19/21
AG
J.P. 03 said:
59 South said:
Morning Sir!

Trade wisely? So what weekly OTM calls we buying at the open?!?

PLTR $27s
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LeisureSuitLarry
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7:11a, 2/19/21
Looks like WSB is going in on PLTR:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-replaces-gamestop-wallstreetbets-top-084327519.html
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59 South
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7:14a, 2/19/21
AG
$PLTR I may end up missing the entry by having too much patience, but I'm waiting for 22-23 area. I'm stubborn like that. Ok with missing out. No more FOMO.
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cageybee77
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In reply to J.P. 03 • 7:16a, 2/19/21
AG
Harsh: https://www.barchart.com/story/stocks/quotes/PLTR/overview/1146080/3-overvalued-ipo-stocks-to-avoid-at-all-costs

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McInnis 03
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In reply to 59 South • 7:17a, 2/19/21
AG
59 South said:
J.P. 03 said:
59 South said:
Morning Sir!

Trade wisely? So what weekly OTM calls we buying at the open?!?

PLTR $27s



M'girl!!!
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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Aggie_2463
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In reply to kyle field 94 • 7:28a, 2/19/21
AG
kyle field 94 said:
I know that there are several ags here that work in the power and natgas trading markets.

Has anyone figured out who is doing well with the sky high power prices?

Would it be the likes of vistra and calpine? Any other large producers? I know that all producers hedge the majority or it's power forward, but vistra has publicly said that at least in the summer that they are running a long book to try to capitalize on these power spikes.

Presumably all companies that are selling to the residential customers are hurting. I am sure that they hedge as good as possible, but no one could have predicted (and therefore hedged) the huge spike in demand.

I bought vistra on this basis, but looking for others as well

Maybe even smaller natgas producers that sell on local basis pricing points. It only takes a day or 2 to have huge profits when you sell or price out your gas at 100$ per mmbtu or higher

Have heard that comstock gas has been a beneficiary or this. Any others?


Vistra typically gets 18% of the grid. When storm hit and failures occurred, they were producing 25-30% of the power on the grid during the rolling blackouts
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Rice and Fries
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In reply to LeisureSuitLarry • 7:29a, 2/19/21
LeisureSuitLarry said:
Looks like WSB is going in on PLTR:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-replaces-gamestop-wallstreetbets-top-084327519.html


They've been on the Alex Karp train since it IPO'd.
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