I got gas in two cars today - both 4WD.
Stock Markets
24,698,910 Views |
233395 Replies |
Last: 43 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,767
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Smart man... gas about to spike
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I got gas in two cars today - both 4WD.
I was ready to throw e85 in today. Houston is a gas ghost town
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
tomorrow morning, this is me$30,000 Millionaire said:
I got gas in two cars today - both 4WD.
Cathie, smart play on PLTR. Now be the real MVP and buy some CLOV
SPY on a Closing basis finished the day under the 8 Day Simple Moving Average (SMA or MA). However, I know many of you here monitor the EMA. I focus more on slower reaction trend versus rapid price movement trend. Tomorrow should be a red day overall, yet the overall bull trend is still intact. Option plays tomorrow with expiration may have a positive influence heading into the weekend, but I'm not thinking so. I am holding a fair amount of positions that are sleepers for me, but I am holding cash waiting for a health restoring pullback and then another upward move to finish 2021. ... I have no comfort in jobless claims being reported from the Dept of Labor and the adjustments being made to previously reported numbers (adjusted higher). This will likely be a 2022 issue as the case is building.
The lines around here have been 2 deep at each pump for the last few days in Katy. I had several people text me from work that live in Houston near Galleria asking about our "gas situation" in the burbs so I'm sure it is slim pickings in town. I topped the SUV off on Sunday before the panic set in which looking back I'm really glad I did.McInnis 03 said:$30,000 Millionaire said:
I got gas in two cars today - both 4WD.
I was ready to throw e85 in today. Houston is a gas ghost town
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,939
How long do you want to ignore this user?
McInnis 03 said:
Look at the OI on tomorrow's fruit calls. Wowzers. So much OTM now.
If you look at the put volumes also, I think it's a good bet that it will end up close to $129 or $130 tomorrow. I've placed some 128/129/130 fly orders and 128/130/140 broken wing fly orders. With the amount of calls I have, if it does jump up and I get max loss on that broken wing order, I'll bank more on the $142 and $147 calls.
Fidelity won't let me place an order tomorrow since it's expiry date. Will it fill orders that I placed tonight?
You're not the bearer of bad news. You bring information for all of us to look at and make educated decisions when it comes to investments in a discussion, with the occasion dad joke and movie reference. If the market goes down, it goes down. If it goes up, it goes up.leoj said:
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but...this is a possibility
If we all remember April/May/June 2020, I believe we had the H/S pattern forming to the point that it corrected right before the technical cross and shot up to ATH. This could be the mark of the entry level point to continue going or sell off time. Time will tell!
And I would never call myself a trader to save my life... even though I did stay at a Holliday Inn Express one time.
I read what I could about ONTX. Going a little deeper than most care about but the overall story is they have some promising drugs but they're a long way from full approval. There might be some news coming that leads to a higher stick price but it feels like the increases over the past few days have been from Twitter and speculation about insider buying and the possible news.
They have 2 promising oncology drugs: rigosertib and ON123300.
Rigosertibmight be very effective for about 25% of non small cell lung cancer patients in niche where there's no current targeted therapy. It's already in a phase 1/2a trial in combo with BMS's opdivo. I suspect BMS is bankrolling the trial and may have licensing rights to rigosertib but I couldn't find documentation. No results have been published for that trial but it's been open about a year so preliminary findings might come out if they're good. That drug already has a failed trial in myeloma. News in the lung cancer trial would be a great signal.
ON123300 is also a really interesting drug. Its mechanism of action is the same as several other drugs on the market that are used for several diseases especially breast cancer. They claim this drug might be effective when cancer cells are resistant to the other available drugs and that it can be used single agent with less toxicity. All of that would be a clinical game changer but they've never given the drug to a patient in the US. Phase 1 trials should start this year. But, trials are ongoing and their conference presentation this week alluded to news coming soon.
They're also actively shopping a pipeline drug for licensing in the US and abroad. Not sure if it's ON123300 or something else. That would be good news if big pharma wants in.
The licensing angle is a growing trend for pharma. These small companies even with over $20 million in cash have a hard time getting drugs to market on their own. Phase 3 trials, dealing with the FDA, and drug production at scale costs hundreds of millions. So you either get acquired, massive investment, or license your drug to someone else to bring to market.
They have some great products that could help a lot of people if they work. And also make $$$. Positive news would be nice but it's pretty early for real stock value especially for a company that's been around for years with no real profitable products. I still bought a few shares and would love to get some net free on some Twitter pumping.
They have 2 promising oncology drugs: rigosertib and ON123300.
Rigosertibmight be very effective for about 25% of non small cell lung cancer patients in niche where there's no current targeted therapy. It's already in a phase 1/2a trial in combo with BMS's opdivo. I suspect BMS is bankrolling the trial and may have licensing rights to rigosertib but I couldn't find documentation. No results have been published for that trial but it's been open about a year so preliminary findings might come out if they're good. That drug already has a failed trial in myeloma. News in the lung cancer trial would be a great signal.
ON123300 is also a really interesting drug. Its mechanism of action is the same as several other drugs on the market that are used for several diseases especially breast cancer. They claim this drug might be effective when cancer cells are resistant to the other available drugs and that it can be used single agent with less toxicity. All of that would be a clinical game changer but they've never given the drug to a patient in the US. Phase 1 trials should start this year. But, trials are ongoing and their conference presentation this week alluded to news coming soon.
They're also actively shopping a pipeline drug for licensing in the US and abroad. Not sure if it's ON123300 or something else. That would be good news if big pharma wants in.
The licensing angle is a growing trend for pharma. These small companies even with over $20 million in cash have a hard time getting drugs to market on their own. Phase 3 trials, dealing with the FDA, and drug production at scale costs hundreds of millions. So you either get acquired, massive investment, or license your drug to someone else to bring to market.
They have some great products that could help a lot of people if they work. And also make $$$. Positive news would be nice but it's pretty early for real stock value especially for a company that's been around for years with no real profitable products. I still bought a few shares and would love to get some net free on some Twitter pumping.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,939
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Looking ahead at AAPL call volumes - after this week there isn't nearly the crazy high volume for any strike in any week. They've bled the bulls with premium. I still have hope that our March calls are still in play. AMZN has high volume for the March 3500 calls, but that's the only one and it's not nearly as big as the call volume this week. Could we see people that sold to hold these two down begin buying back next week? If so they'll carry the rest of the market with them.
Everyone thinks tomorrow will be a red day. Wonder what will happen.
I'll add that don't have any inside info or connection to ONTX but work in clinical oncology and pharma related industry. So I have solid understanding of the market and how to interpret publicly available scientific and marketing literature.
spent the afternoon up checking on my cattle in the snow so I wasnt able to capture several stocks I was looking at that fell hard today....namely NXTD, DNN, PLTR, TSNP, FRX and a few more of SNDL.
My initial strategy has been 40% cash, 15% mid-long term, 45% swing plays that I try and earn income from.
I am trying to diversify but my cash limitation is there.....im about 35% cash right now, and about 17% CLOV, 15% WWR, 15% TLRY and the rest is split amongst about 8 others. I wasnt planning on both WWR and CLOV to be long plays but its looking like they are going to be. The problem is that combined they make up about 32% of this account, and there is about 35% cash, so I am well under my 45% for swings, at only about 33%.
If CLOV climbed back to the mid to upper $13s, I would exit a portion of that position to free up cash. I have learned a lesson about trying to average down when the price points are too close....you end up just loading up too many shares. I made this same mistake with both CLOV and WWR. I will try and avoid this mistake again.
My initial strategy has been 40% cash, 15% mid-long term, 45% swing plays that I try and earn income from.
I am trying to diversify but my cash limitation is there.....im about 35% cash right now, and about 17% CLOV, 15% WWR, 15% TLRY and the rest is split amongst about 8 others. I wasnt planning on both WWR and CLOV to be long plays but its looking like they are going to be. The problem is that combined they make up about 32% of this account, and there is about 35% cash, so I am well under my 45% for swings, at only about 33%.
If CLOV climbed back to the mid to upper $13s, I would exit a portion of that position to free up cash. I have learned a lesson about trying to average down when the price points are too close....you end up just loading up too many shares. I made this same mistake with both CLOV and WWR. I will try and avoid this mistake again.
It sounds like your position sizes are stressing you out a bitcompletely understand. Being in that situation before has caused me to make subjective decisions one way or the other.
I like your line of thinking about the division of assets though.
I like your line of thinking about the division of assets though.
3850$30,000 Millionaire said:
Everyone thinks tomorrow will be a red day. Wonder what will happen.
If you're looking for green. Monday is your day.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,939
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sideways, but we'll open red and retail-heavy stocks will take a beating while Energy, Banks, and Utilities will make gains to offset it. Full disclosure: I do not currently have any holdings in Banks or Utilities. I think it's gonna be another rough one for Bob. But that's what$30,000 Millionaire said:
Everyone thinks tomorrow will be a red day. Wonder what will happen.
New color for tomorrow$30,000 Millionaire said:
Everyone thinks tomorrow will be aredgre*d*en day. Wonder what will happen.
Yep, depending on how it looks tomorrow, I think it is $2, then I dip out (ideally). I scaled back my position, sold and entered at a decent price difference (still should have waited longer), so my risk is not extremely high unless the bottom drops out.kyledr04 said:
I read what I could about ONTX. Going a little deeper than most care about but the overall story is they have some promising drugs but they're a long way from full approval. There might be some news coming that leads to a higher stick price but it feels like the increases over the past few days have been from Twitter and speculation about insider buying and the possible news.
They have 2 promising oncology drugs: rigosertib and ON123300.
Rigosertibmight be very effective for about 25% of non small cell lung cancer patients in niche where there's no current targeted therapy. It's already in a phase 1/2a trial in combo with BMS's opdivo. I suspect BMS is bankrolling the trial and may have licensing rights to rigosertib but I couldn't find documentation. No results have been published for that trial but it's been open about a year so preliminary findings might come out if they're good. That drug already has a failed trial in myeloma. News in the lung cancer trial would be a great signal.
ON123300 is also a really interesting drug. Its mechanism of action is the same as several other drugs on the market that are used for several diseases especially breast cancer. They claim this drug might be effective when cancer cells are resistant to the other available drugs and that it can be used single agent with less toxicity. All of that would be a clinical game changer but they've never given the drug to a patient in the US. Phase 1 trials should start this year. But, trials are ongoing and their conference presentation this week alluded to news coming soon.
They're also actively shopping a pipeline drug for licensing in the US and abroad. Not sure if it's ON123300 or something else. That would be good news if big pharma wants in.
The licensing angle is a growing trend for pharma. These small companies even with over $20 million in cash have a hard time getting drugs to market on their own. Phase 3 trials, dealing with the FDA, and drug production at scale costs hundreds of millions. So you either get acquired, massive investment, or license your drug to someone else to bring to market.
They have some great products that could help a lot of people if they work. And also make $$$. Positive news would be nice but it's pretty early for real stock value especially for a company that's been around for years with no real profitable products. I still bought a few shares and would love to get some net free on some Twitter pumping.
Support looks to be around 1.75-1.80 but AH kinda broke that. Have to see how it pans out PH. At this point it is a chase IMO. Might be a good entry if it stays at 1.60s, could see a 1.80 by end of day. But if it opens at 1.80 I would just leave it alone. I would be shocked if it gets above 2.00.
Nice humble brag. Subtle, very nice. Look at me on first row, 1D seat.third coast.. said:
Random but Mac was wearing a Robin hood shirt on a 5 year old episode of always sunny I just watched on a flight.
We treat volatility as its own asset class. We run a lot of directionally neutral short volatilty plays on many of the stocks that have juiced premiums. Delta neutral, short vega, long theta.
aggiedaniel06 said:
We treat volatility as its own asset class. We run a lot of directionally neutral short volatilty plays on many of the stocks that have juiced premiums. Delta neutral, short vega, long theta.
Can you give an example of such a trade? I'm wondering how you are short Vega and long theta.
I'm assuming long theta means going for time decay
A short straddle atm right?
Yes theta positive.
When you buy an option, you're long vol, theta -ve and when vice versa when you sell an option.
When you buy an option, you're long vol, theta -ve and when vice versa when you sell an option.
I guess these AAPL Bears are after premium, but I'm holding shares over here going can we just hurry the F up and get through OPEX???
Monday is the day the shorts disappear.
Monday is the day the shorts disappear.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
I would be surprised if we pulled back tomorrow, given options expiration week and volatility. Volatility is there, but despite it, UVXY still posted a new ATL today. Retail will flood into uvxy calls (if they haven't already and a new crop of premium will get slaughtered). Rinse and repeat.
a quick Adam thought too...
a quick Adam thought too...
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,939
How long do you want to ignore this user?
That's what I understood from that as well. "Directionally neutral" so the play is not looking for directional price movement and "short volatility" so you're betting against the folks hoping for price movement (these days mostly increases) on high beta stocks. Am I thinking right?$30,000 Millionaire said:aggiedaniel06 said:
We treat volatility as its own asset class. We run a lot of directionally neutral short volatilty plays on many of the stocks that have juiced premiums. Delta neutral, short vega, long theta.
Can you give an example of such a trade? I'm wondering how you are short Vega and long theta.
So basically it's Daniel's fault that AAPL calls failed. Let's get him!
Kidding, kidding.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,939
How long do you want to ignore this user?
This is where setting up good scanners and using some sort of code or AI to sift through the option chains helps.
I'm guessing it's a mixed bag depending on the trade, but do you primarily buys shares and sell options or use multi-legs option trades like condors, credit spreads, and butterflies?
I'm guessing it's a mixed bag depending on the trade, but do you primarily buys shares and sell options or use multi-legs option trades like condors, credit spreads, and butterflies?
The opposite of what everyone always thinks.$30,000 Millionaire said:
Everyone thinks tomorrow will be a red day. Wonder what will happen.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
I think tomorrow will be sideways with little change
Featured Stories
See All
SEC Round-Up: Dawgs facing possible playoff elimination this week
by Olin Buchanan
33:59
4h ago
686
Pick 'Em & Rip 'Em sponsored by PrizePicks: Week 12
by Matthew Dawson
14:58
4h ago
763
Assessing Earley's first signing class at the helm of Texas A&M baseball
by Ryan Brauninger
Tom Kazansky 2012
Number of football tickets A&M provided to t.u.
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
81