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24,743,552 Views | 233446 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by FishrCoAg
H-town ag
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AG
MavsAg said:

Anyone going to hold $NIO through the long weekend? The 2/19 $65C doesn't look like it's going to make it.
Beginner here - I am still holding and looking for strategy ideas? Cut losses now?
kyledr04
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CrazyRichAggie said:

docaggie said:





Bring on 150!
Born Maroon
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$TRCH is finally moving in a better direction.
tsuag10
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RE: AAPL and Bitcoin:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210212005047/en/BitPay-Card-Adds-Support-for-Apple-Pay

Ragoo
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Apple has been in a 2 hours squeeze for the better part of 2 weeks.

This is building up a lot of energy.


I think it has to touch the 1ATR at 132 or so first. That should squeeze the 8EMA against the 21EMA.

See 1/19 for example.
Philip J Fry
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D2F1D0 said:

Not at all. Disciprin (south park voice)



Still learning so working to identify patterns post-mortem so I can start seeing leading indicators. But Mc mentioned it may have been pure luck. Not sure how much I'll glean after the fact.


FOMO on my part. Not going to chase though. Already learned that lesson.
astroaggie13
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tsuag10 said:

RE: AAPL and Bitcoin:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210212005047/en/BitPay-Card-Adds-Support-for-Apple-Pay




Meanwhile, sell volume lol
Gig em Stros
tailgatetimer10
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zacks upgraded AAPL to a buy as well. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-aapl-upgraded-strong-buy-170005587.html
Jet Black
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Are there price targets on EBON or DPW?

Thanks
mrad85
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astroaggie13 said:

tsuag10 said:

RE: AAPL and Bitcoin:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210212005047/en/BitPay-Card-Adds-Support-for-Apple-Pay




Meanwhile, sell volume lol
We're going about this ALL wrong.

Somebody needs to Tweet out that the Iphones are failing everywhere.

This sucker would sky rocket
BullSprig07
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Jet Black said:

Are there price targets on EBON or DPW?

Thanks
DPW was on a small rocket that looks like it stopped, was it halted?
Water Turkey07
FTAG 2000
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BullSprig07 said:

Jet Black said:

Are there price targets on EBON or DPW?

Thanks
DPW was on a small rocket that looks like it stopped, was it halted?
Nope, just taking a breather.
Ragoo
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I think if you are playing AAPL you buy the 135c near close today for $2.40ish out two weeks.
Joseph Freshwater, Sr
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Born Maroon said:

$TRCH is finally moving in a better direction.
any clue on the potential of TRCH?
D2F1D0
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Sell the news!
Chaos is reality, clarity is the goal, simplicity is a choice.
AgsnFly
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Talon2DSO said:

DRE06 said:

mrad85 said:

AAPL could cure cancer today and this stock is not even gonna wiggle.

I've got time, but this is frustrating!.



The stock is up 12% in last 3 months, 20% in last 6 months, 70% in last 12 months, and 200% in last 24 months.

What more could you ask for. Lol.


150 by next Friday
Maybe but feels like dealers are very long dollar gamma with maximum exposure at the $135 strike. If so, it is not likely to move much from there until Feb expires. I could be way off here but easy to see how institutions may have hedged $billions in collars using 135 and 140 calls.
Larry J. Holy 81
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H-town ag said:

MavsAg said:

Anyone going to hold $NIO through the long weekend? The 2/19 $65C doesn't look like it's going to make it.
Beginner here - I am still holding and looking for strategy ideas? Cut losses now?
Dont know if this helps you or not.

Own 200 shares at $61.25
Sold 1 Call - Feb 19 - $66 @ $2.00 - (I believe that happened yesterday)
Sold 1 Call - Feb 19 - $58 @ $3.84 - today

I liked the premiums and invested elsewhere. Don't care if I get exercised or not.
Touchless
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TSLA didn't have a big spike after announcing the crypto play, so I didn't expect much movement from the AAPL announcement off of it. I could see crypto maybe running off it, but not sure it immediately impacts AAPL.
khaos288
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Man I have been paying some expensive tuition this year.

If I took profit on BB and SNDL, I'd probably have a 10% higher account.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Big green volume on fruit stocks. Six to midnight!


I still think we close at or below 135 today but this has my attention for next week!
BrokeAssAggie
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Big green volume on fruit stocks. Six to midnight!


I still think we close at or below 135 today but this has my attention for next week!
She's going to need bigger than that.
Touchless
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Big green volume on fruit stocks. Six to midnight!


I still think we close at or below 135 today but this has my attention for next week!
When??

Bob Knights Paper Hands
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CrazyRichAggie said:

Bob Knights Liver said:

Big green volume on fruit stocks. Six to midnight!


I still think we close at or below 135 today but this has my attention for next week!
She's going to need bigger than that.

Damnit, apparently that was just a charting error. My screen showed an 800k buy on the minute chart. ATP you dirty son' b....
AgEng06
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Big green volume on fruit stocks. Six to midnight!


I still think we close at or below 135 today but this has my attention for next week!
Sorry... did you say big volume?




Edit: Didn't mean to pile on, there were a few responses already while I searched for the gif.
McKinney Ag69
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Big green volume on fruit stocks. Six to midnight!


I still think we close at or below 135 today but this has my attention for next week!
Where can I get some of what you are drinking? I don't see anything lol.%A0
gigemJTH12
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based on the law of averages, I am taking a second mortgage on the next option OA likes as much as he liked AAPL.
tsuag10
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BKL giving half of us a heart attack...
McKinney Ag69
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kyledr04
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khaos288 said:

Man I have been paying some expensive tuition this year.

If I took profit on BB and SNDL, I'd probably have a 10% higher account.


+1. Selling too early or too late. Losing out both ways.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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tsuag10 said:

BKL giving half of us a heart attack...

Me too! I think Fidelity was punking me just then.
leoj
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Fruit call pricing getting taken down while stock moves sideways? Looking at next weeks $140s
kyledr04
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gigemJTH12 said:

based on the law of averages, I am taking a second mortgage on the next option OA likes as much as he liked AAPL.


Hanging onto March options. Still feels like a jump is coming but losing hope it happens by Friday.
khaos288
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kyledr04 said:

khaos288 said:

Man I have been paying some expensive tuition this year.

If I took profit on BB and SNDL, I'd probably have a 10% higher account.


+1. Selling too early or too late. Losing out both ways.
Both times I saw big numbers and got greedy. If I had gone net free, I'd be up. If I'd sold out, I'd be up big.
FJ43
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khaos288 said:

FJ43 said:

Cloud said:

FJ43 said:

I added some SPY March 350 Puts here. Feeling a bit uneasy.


how do you size this? % of total equity?
There are guys on here much better at hedging than I am so this is just what I am doing. Probably one of my weaknesses and something I need to get a lot stronger with in both knowledge and execution. .

Short term - I buy SPY puts with no more than 3% of profits of the week. While these may be sacrificial I will 'trade' them out if decaying or roll them out. I buy these when we hit tops or highs.
Mid Term - I buy SPY puts out 6-8 weeks. Same when riding tops. Today was March 31st 350 as example. These I will use same almost as position sizing. 1-2% of account value loss ratio When they are at a point I will sell or roll. I have also used Options on SPXS.
Long Term - I have some shares of SPXU (a 30k favorite) that to a degree I just have and 'forget'. Was using UVXY as well for shares but I think Mostly Foggy is the expert on these. They should probably be traded vs set and forget them.

Weekly hedging is like insurance. I may pay the premium and not get anything for it. But be really happy if I need them.

Hope that helps and hope someone on here that is the Hedge Master chimes in so we can both learn.
I'm not condoning anything at all, but as a thought experiment, what would you say you're projected to spend in hedges this year? And what's your breakeven correction needed for those to be worth it?
I approach this maybe a bit differently than breakeven correction for worth.

I keep about 5% of account value in hedges on or $500 per $10,000 of account value (trading accounts but not IRAs). That is split approximately 3% in shares (always on) of the likes of SPXU and 2% in options (in and out trades) that are 'active'. The options I don't ride to zero on the 'loss' side and I will sell the put (or call) for a gain when a recovery occurs within short time spans.

The options I 'trade' where the shares I do not. This is more than likely not the best approach as an example I bough UVXY shares at about $10 to have it go north of $14 a few weeks later. I did not sell them for a 40% gain but let come back to $10. Why do I not trade them...Beats me but I should use it to generate income if I can I guess. Mostly Foggy I think trades this particular one frequently up and down.

If I exclude the rise and fall of the shares values unrealized loss or gain, I would estimate the 'short' term hedges cost me about 0.5-1% of account value a year. I have not tracked that to be exact.

I am sure there are better and more sound hedge strategies overall. This is where I have migrated to today but as always subject to change as I school up more on hedging.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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