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BrokeAssAggie
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Red Red Wine said:

I have honestly learned more in the last three weeks following this thread than I have in 20 years of doing bits and bobs on books and articles. Obviously, observing, doing, win/lose in real time is a better teacher than a book.

I appreciate what you guys do on this thread.


100% agree
Brewmaster
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AG
I've obviouisly missed a good entry on it, but interesting fact on TIGR: Here's to our calls mooning!

kyledr04
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Red Red Wine said:

I have honestly learned more in the last three weeks following this thread than I have in 20 years of doing bits and bobs on books and articles. Obviously, observing, doing, win/lose in real time is a better teacher than a book.

I appreciate what you guys do on this thread.


Same here and I've been trying follow thread since Covid started but it's so much more informative to put some cash in play and learn by doing

Looking forward to OA's class.
Red Rover
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Today I rolled my Feb SPXS calls out to Apr. I do this once a month so that I have SPXS calls out 1 and 2 months from the current. That seems to split the difference between losing too much from decay and having the hedge expiry too far out that they don't react to fluctuations.
frankm01
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kyledr04 said:

DubFalls said:

So, super high level potential valuation for SAVA

Average Alzheimer's patient spends $200-400 per month on medications to treat. https://www.medpagetoday.com/neurology/dementia/50154#:~:text=The%20cost%20was%20%2424.76.,the%20costs%20of%20specialized%20care.

5.8 million people in the US have Alzheimer's of some sort
https://dshs.texas.gov/alzheimers/qanda.shtm#:~:text=The%20Alzheimer%27s%20Association%20estimates%20that,disease%20in%20the%20United%20States.

Let's say that 25 percent of the Alzheimer's patients use SAVA. That would give us 5,800,000 persons*$200/month/person*12 months in a year = $3.48 billion per year in revenue. If we value the company at 5x revenue, that's a $17.4 billion dollar company. At close SAVA was a $3B company today

Is this analysis crazy or is SAVA still that undervalued?



They're still a long way (maybe next year if everything went perfect) from FDA approval. Going to need another trial with a lot more patients. But looking promising. Hope it works.

Still wish I'd held my shares longer.
Yeah, this is what concerns me. The trial (as mentioned by someone earlier on this thread today) was very small. Although it shows promise, there's a long way to go. I hope it doesn't get a hit piece by Hindenburg or whoever blew up SRNE earlier this year.

I'm in for 100 at 18.00 thanks to McGinnis and Bezinga guy, so we'll see where this goes.
FJ43
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BREwmaster said:

I've obviouisly missed a good entry on it, but interesting fact on TIGR: Here's to our calls mooning!


I'm not in this one but would love to be. Lately I've had to put the mouse in the other room to not hit buy on things.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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NRD09 said:

Wow...so say you want to do this for a living and pay yourself 100k a year. If you think you can clear 8% a month (taking a monthly paycheck), your trading account only needs to be $104,167. Guess it makes sense because 2% a week is 104% a year without compounding. But wow...

Edit to add: 401k benefits have lost all their attractiveness as an incentive for me going back to working for the Man, as i have full confidence i will be able to grow my (slowly being consolidated) current rollover 401k balances into more money than I'll ever be able to spend in retirement
Not going to tell you what to do for a career, but include the cost of your health/medical insurance on top of that salary you calculated. Get a quote on the insurance, because it will cost a lot more than if it is company subsidized working as an employee.

If your 401K happens to be a 401K-Roth, leave it with your former company. If things don't work out on the trading career and you re-enter the workplace, hopefully the new employer has a 401K-Roth you can roll it into. The objective here is, as long as you roll 401k-Roth's from one employer to the next employer during your career, if there's enough money in that 401K-Roth at age 55, you can quit your job,...or get quit from your job, retire and pull distributions from the 401K-Roth without the 10% early withdrawal penalty and distributions are tax-free. Rule 55 - Google it.

Now, back to regularly scheduled programming.
Fightin_Aggie
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

If you're new, for the love of God, please read "options for dummies" or at a minimum, read this thread up to this point.
This sounds like the book for me.
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Red Red Wine
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Anybody bored? I have TNXP (in at $0.82). I haven't taken OA's seminar yet. (Not sure this chart is properly sized until I hit "Post"). Closed at $1.20 and up to $1.46 AH

Any technical guru have a few minutes to offer an opinion on where this one is headed? I will pay it forward. Ags helping Ags is a beautiful thing.



3m Chart
AW 1880
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I've been watching some of the YouTube videos that have been posted. Also following other's trades as well. I thought I was ready to buy some AAPL calls today and found out I didn't have options permissions on my account.
Cappo
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Red Red Wine said:

I have honestly learned more in the last three weeks following this thread than I have in 20 years of doing bits and bobs on books and articles. Obviously, observing, doing, win/lose in real time is a better teacher than a book.

I appreciate what you guys do on this thread.
I am in the same boat as you. this is fun and I have learned an incredible amount so far and this thread and the discord are great!

Keep the tips coming
FbgTxAg
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AW 1880 said:

I've been watching some of the YouTube videos that have been posted. Also following other's trades as well. I thought I was ready to buy some AAPL calls today and found out I didn't have options permissions on my account.


Prog says just lie.

So I did.

It works.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
jwhitlock3
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

2% weekly
I've always wondered if this was overall account value increase, or realized gain? Apologies if I'm missed that but I always see you post and as I'm getting a few months under my belt I'm starting to bump my benchmark's. Thanks!
Cappo
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Ags helping Ags
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Prognightmare said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Red Red Wine said:

Absolutely. If it is a solid pick, why not. No different than having 75% of my portfolio in AAPL, FANG, VLO, AMZN, etc. only a slightly more risky downside (just put in an exit strategy to save me from a zero result!).

But, you didn't answer what was next week's pick. I guess you have until Sunday night to answer that one though!

Thanks again!
I always post anything I see that's a good setup. Lot of others do too. I have brought solid picks in JMIA, FUTU, SQ, PINS, V, APPS, AMZN, and CWH to the board. I'm not even close to OA's level, but we need everyone to bring their ideas here.

Next week is digestion or down in my opinion.
I'm in the same camp here. I'm not liking the actions of the indexes at the close of the day. I'm scalping trades but I return to cash.
Feeling the same above.

Sold all my SPY & other stocks the week of Jan 11th and went to cash (first time in my life to have a no equity position, had cash & bonds). The pullback the market gave was less than I expected so my re-entry point never came about. Re-entered SPY and others this week.

Sold Feb 5/388 Calls and I want the market to exercise me out of my position, once again, to carry cash into next week.

Holding WWR, MBIO, CLOV, AAPL, AMZN, T and will continue to carry those positions.
Madmarttigan
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Somehow this thread and The amount of OA trades have gone into hyperdrive the past few weeks. Having a hard time keeping up, used to be a couple names a day and tickers flying all over the place on Twitter now.

Fat chance I ever keep up with discord too.

Formerly tv1113
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Write down a goal and measure it.

Wise man once told me, "what gets documented gets measured"
Yep, you can't manage what you don't measure.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Realized. Unrealized is the 10 you want when you're a freshman, but if you don't execute, she may end up a 1 when the lights flip on after that dance.
gougler08
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jwhitlock3 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

2% weekly
I've always wondered if this was overall account value increase, or realized gain? Apologies if I'm missed that but I always see you post and as I'm getting a few months under my belt I'm starting to bump my benchmark's. Thanks!


For me it's account value, you don't necessarily want to take realized gains each day/week for tax reasons

That being said, I've had a ton of realized gains so far this year with the meme stock short squeeze and many of my penny stocks going through the roof to start the year
Charismatic Megafauna
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Wife has a good job/salary/ insurance and that is definitely part of the equation

Regarding the roth 401k....i had one with my last employer, and it's substantial. I was planning to roll it into an old regular roth ira that i have with td and trade that. Why would i not do that?
gougler08
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Realized. Unrealized is the 10 you want when you're a freshman, but if you don't execute, she may end up a 1 when the lights flip on after that dance.


Also a good point to the flip side of my way of looking at it
wanderer
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done
Jet Black
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Info on KIQ? Still a good buy at current price? Thanks.
Baby Billy
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NRD09 said:

Wife has a good job/salary/ insurance and that is definitely part of the equation

Regarding the roth 401k....i had one with my last employer, and it's substantial. I was planning to roll it into an old regular roth ira that i have with td and trade that. Why would i not do that?

Much better option. You can always take the basis out of your Roth. Roll it to the IRA
jwhitlock3
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Great responses, love that they were both opposite in a way, many ways to think about it. Thanks!
Jet Black
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wanderer said:



done


Just terrible
FJ43
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Red Red Wine said:

Anybody bored? I have TNXP (in at $0.82). I haven't taken OA's seminar yet. (Not sure this chart is properly sized until I hit "Post"). Closed at $1.20 and up to $1.46 AH

Any technical guru have a few minutes to offer an opinion on where this one is headed? I will pay it forward. Ags helping Ags is a beautiful thing.



3m Chart

I can provide some better feedback at least from my humble perspective in the morning. Looking from a phone and can't see the EMAs but wild guess carrying all of them. Volume looks great. Go back further and you'll see highs around mid 2s at the least. Trend is strong and had multiple goal posts and good support. About to complete a cup back to July I think. With what little I can see from the phone I'd stick with it. That being said I'd also go net free here. Each time it hits these spikes it comes back down although the volume pattern this time is different. Net fee you sleep better.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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NRD09 said:

Wife has a good job/salary/ insurance and that is definitely part of the equation

Regarding the roth 401k....i had one with my last employer, and it's substantial. I was planning to roll it into an old regular roth ira that i have with td and trade that. Why would i not do that?
I had this all typed up and sent and the computer glitched. Here goes again..

You do what you need to do; however, if you leave that substantial 401K-Roth at your old company and begin trading as a career, see how you like trading and if you are successful. If not successful and you have to re-enter the workforce, hopefully you land at a company with a 401K-Roth. Next, roll your former company 401K-Roth into your new company 401K-Roth. If you stay at your new company until age 55 and that substantial 401K-Roth has become a MEGA-substantial 401K-Roth and you want to retire - you can. You will be able to take distributions from that 401K-Roth at age 55 without an early withdrawal 10% penalty. In all other cases, you have to wait until age 59 1/2 to withdraw penalty free, unless disabled and a couple other life changing exceptions. Your distributions from that 401K-Roth are tax free.

If you roll that former company 401K-Roth into your Personal Roth, you can do NONE of what I wrote above.

ETA: https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-rule-of-55-2894280#:~:text=(t)%20distribution.-,The%20IRS%20Rule%20of%2055%20allows%20an%20employee%20who%20is,10%25%20penalty%20for%20early%20withdrawal. SCROLL TO TOP OF ARTICLE
khkman22
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FbgTxAg said:

AW 1880 said:

I've been watching some of the YouTube videos that have been posted. Also following other's trades as well. I thought I was ready to buy some AAPL calls today and found out I didn't have options permissions on my account.


Prog says just lie.

So I did.

It works.

irish pete ag06
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Red Red Wine said:

I have honestly learned more in the last three weeks following this thread than I have in 20 years of doing bits and bobs on books and articles. Obviously, observing, doing, win/lose in real time is a better teacher than a book.

I appreciate what you guys do on this thread.
100%.

I can only learn so much through watching videos. Reading books. Trial & error. Application is the best learning I've ever done. I am so thankful for the patient folks on this thread that are miles ahead of us but so willing to help.

Edit to say that I only wish I had found this thread waaaay sooner and learned about "net free" before I sold all of my SAVA in December that had a cost basis of $6 per share.
Red Red Wine
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That was fantastic. I will sleep soundly. Very much appreciated. (PS. I am taking the Feb 27th seminar so soon I hope to 'add' info and not work to this thread in the very near future.)

Until the morning.....

Sounds like a Chick Flick should be playing in the background.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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Realized booked gains
leoj
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FbgTxAg
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leoj said:




5,000,000 TexAgs investors selling calls on WWR does not a short squeeze make.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
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