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Spudman
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oldarmy1 said:

Bob Knights Liver said:

If you had 4 contracts at a $110 strike and the stock goes to $114 instead of having to wait for the market to open you could short 400 shares at $114 and then lock in that $4/share instead of just hoping it stays up there when the market opens.


Correct. There are so many times a stock spikes or tanks in premarket or post market and by the time markets open they have equalized erasing a lot of the gains.

We had AMC $2.50 LEAPS that cost us $1.25 for the right to buy the shares at $2.50 ANY TIME between now and January 2023. Our plan was to count on the opening of the economy to give an initial bounce, to sell as low of % of our calls as possible to recapture our investment and then let the rest hopefully move higher.

It worked with the announcements of opening sending AMC to over $5 allowing us to sell only 28% of the Calls to recapture our investment. But then reddit hit and the stock jumped to over $25 premarket a few days later. Obviously we can't trade options premarket so your choice is to agonizingly wait for the open and hope it stays up there (it didn't - it fell to $16 and below) OR since your calls give you the right to call out shares at $2.50 what you do is SHORT AMC at the premarket price of $26.20.

Instead of covering that short by buying shares in the market you just call out your $2.50 calls. Your total cost for the shares was $2.50 + $1.25 premium so $3.75. Your short was say $25.75. That net then is $22/share.

For every 1 call you paid $125 for you made $2200. Of you didn't short it then you would have sold your leaps at the open for around $17 or $1700/share. Not bad but not nearly as good as $2200. 100 calls brought in $220k in under a week!
Phenomenal insight to a winning strategy. This example would be perfect for a seminar piece (I missed the first one but registered for future sessions).

Thank you!
Colt98
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So when you hold those leaps. And then short the stock. Do you have to have the cash on hand to cover the trade or will the brokerage take in to effect you own the options at a lower price?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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tlepoC said:

I missed the second half of the seminar due to work chaos so hoping the rewatch helps solidify. I still struggle on exactly where to target the model t strikes for optimal return. Do I buy calls/puts just under or over the retrace level? That way... Even if it takes a while to retrace, I know the premium hasn't decayed enough to kill the trade? Or do I just look at where the premium is cheapest and just bank on the move being quick enough to have a gain regardless. Perhaps it doesn't matter that much - each traders flavor - and I'm overcomplicating.

I am also certainly playing around with pattern recognition. I'm better with a computers eyes than I am with my own.

The only way I've played the model T is using that as a target strike price and potential sales point. If stock ATM goes from $20 to $10 and then confirms reversal I have confidence it will get back to $15. So I can buy calls around $15 strike. Then I can estimate the call price when the underlying reaches $15. [ For simplicity sake I use a current delta midpoint between $10 strikes and $15 strikes. That may not be exact but it's good enough for government work.] I can sell all or a portion at that price and then see what happens after the underlying reaches model T. The same can be done for a stock that moves up and then confirms reversal. You can buy puts and estimate your sell price for some or all contracts based on the model T using put deltas.

If I can't be around to watch the trade, I set sell brackets to sell a certain percent at that price, usually the number that gets me net free +15%, and the lower stop is 40% of my purchase price.

What I'm still weak on is seeing these reversal confirmations on a short timeframe or for small moves. On longer time-frames I am used to waiting for reversal plus 2 to 3% as confirmation, but on these smaller moves that doesn't work. So I've made errors on missing the reversal and the buy window or jumping in too quickly on a false reversal and wasting capital.
Guitarsoup
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Guy on Reddit bought 10 Nintendos at Gamestop and donated them to a Children's Hospital.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/north-texas-investor-uses-gamestop-gains-help-sick-children/2537134/

aggies4life
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@$30,000 Millionaire

Can you do one of your charts on Apple with all the resistance/support lines if it isn't too much to ask. Love your charts.

And btw, you killed it on the sunw chart, it jumped up that following Monday and he made out like a bandit at the top....now it's where you said it would probably fall to $18.

As always, thank you!
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Colt98 said:

So with spy starting to break. I guess we are going to start looking for down side plays?? Question. I have spy puts and vix calls. Sold some to go net free on them Friday. I wish I had more hedge than I do. Should I look for shorter time hedge on Monday? Looks like we will see low 360's this next week.

Oh and I was only able to get to 20% cash this week. Most money in MA stocks withCC which I did buy back some of these this week. With surgery on Friday I wasn't able to do much.

Good question. For those of you with more experience playing downside (Irish, Clay, Daniel, $30k, and of course OA) what is your general thought here? Are we guessing too much and we need to wait to see which way the market moves and then jump on that side and watch closely for reversals? If someone is looking for less active trading on this market what are your thoughts? Is it sit out if you don't have the time to watch closely? Last question - would you sell off recent acquisition shares that you still like long term, like MGNI, MBIO, and FUBO, or even long-term holdings if this creates large taxable events? Or do you hold tight on those still? I've taken decent losses the last two days even after pairing back quite a bit. I'm not sure if I should sell more or if I'd be selling at the bottom and owing tax losses. In short - am I doing this right?
Chef Elko
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Anyone adding to their GE leaps on the dip?
backintexas2013
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I'm really curious about AAPL too. Just seems crazy to sell off like it did after crushing it.
CPDAggie10
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wanderer said:

Not sure if this was the original WSB post about the GME play or not, but its from 4-5mo ago. Fascinating to read the post after the fact.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ip6jnv/the_real_greatest_short_burn_of_the_century/?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=&utm_content=post_body
The GME saga goes back 2019. That reddit poster DeepF***ingValue started the first post on it and was buying his calls in September 2019. He has made a killing and deserves every penny of it imo.

Read this guys thread on Twitter it explains a lot of the history behind the craziness.


Ornithopter
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wanderer said:

Not sure if this was the original WSB post about the GME play or not, but its from 4-5mo ago. Fascinating to read the post after the fact.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ip6jnv/the_real_greatest_short_burn_of_the_century/?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=&utm_content=post_body


The most interesting thing at this point is that he doesn't expect the stock to go back down.
Guitarsoup
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backintexas2013 said:

I'm really curious about AAPL too. Just seems crazy to sell off like it did after crushing it.
There was some talk about people selling off AAPL to cover short positions. I dont know if there is any validity. Not worried about it long term.
Lt. Joe Bookman
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How do you remove the 3 day trades per week on TDA? With how volitile the week was... I used those up fairly quick.
Lt. Joe Bookman
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Lt. Joe Bookman said:

How do you remove the 3 day trades per week on TDA? With how volitile the week was... I used those up fairly quick.


Well, answered my own question with a quick google search...

Looks like you need 25K in a margin account.
AgEE10
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You have to have an account balance over 25k or else you get tagged as a pattern day trader and restricted for 90 days or until the balance is brought up to 25k.
Colt98
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You can probably call your broker and have them remove it one time.
Baby Billy
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Right Over the Robinhood HQ in San Francisco

Lt. Joe Bookman
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Do you know if options on the same stock count towards that?

Say I bought 100 shares and then sold 1 call. Would that still be considered a day trade?
Colt98
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That is not a day trade. In and out is
leoj
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Colt98 said:

You can probably call your broker and have them remove it one time.


Yes. I've had it removed at TDA, I think they told me they can do it 2-3 times a year but they may just look at your activity and kind of take it into context.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Get your volatility rockets ready.
Chef Elko
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I'm in love with the SNDL chart and the call premium for covered calls. Big volume signatures the past two months. $0.50 support and $0.75 resistance turn to $0.75 support and $1.00 resistance. Closing over $0.75 on Friday was HUGE in my opinion. Adding more at open Monday and additional buy orders at $0.75.

Will buy protective puts with the $0.50 strike expiring feb 5 for pennies. Doing this to mitigate a broad market sell off and GME possibly tanking next week, all the speculative small caps will feel the pain. In addition to this, SNDL has a bad habit of diluting shareholders. I will sell $1.50 calls feb 19 strike if/when SNDL approaches $1.00.
$30,000 Millionaire
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aggies4life said:

@$30,000 Millionaire

Can you do one of your charts on Apple with all the resistance/support lines if it isn't too much to ask. Love your charts.

And btw, you killed it on the sunw chart, it jumped up that following Monday and he made out like a bandit at the top....now it's where you said it would probably fall to $18.

As always, thank you!


Glad your friend did well on SUNW. That's great news and congratulations! I hope he tipped you for the solid advice.

I'm not at home, but yes, I will post an Apple chart (I'm a long time shareholder and I'm in the same play you all are).

Is there anything else you all want to see? I will also do SNDL.
MEag02
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Okay I'm doing it! I was so intimidated before with the lingo and mechanics of options, but OA's seminar has given me the confidence to finally dip my toes in. Spent today gaming out different scenarios with a stock I have seen huge gains from ($SENS) based on the wisdom I gained following this thread for 2 years. I have yet to go net free on this, but I believe in the long term prospects of the company (lot of first hand experience in this industry), and I want to hold as many shares as I can. Finally understand how covered calls can get me to my goals with very little risk! Thanks OA!!!!!!
$30,000 Millionaire
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Colt98 said:

So with spy starting to break. I guess we are going to start looking for down side plays?? Question. I have spy puts and vix calls. Sold some to go net free on them Friday. I wish I had more hedge than I do. Should I look for shorter time hedge on Monday? Looks like we will see low 360's this next week.

Oh and I was only able to get to 20% cash this week. Most money in MA stocks withCC which I did buy back some of these this week. With surgery on Friday I wasn't able to do much.

Good question. For those of you with more experience playing downside (Irish, Clay, Daniel, $30k, and of course OA) what is your general thought here? Are we guessing too much and we need to wait to see which way the market moves and then jump on that side and watch closely for reversals? If someone is looking for less active trading on this market what are your thoughts? Is it sit out if you don't have the time to watch closely? Last question - would you sell off recent acquisition shares that you still like long term, like MGNI, MBIO, and FUBO, or even long-term holdings if this creates large taxable events? Or do you hold tight on those still? I've taken decent losses the last two days even after pairing back quite a bit. I'm not sure if I should sell more or if I'd be selling at the bottom and owing tax losses. In short - am I doing this right?


Couple quick thoughts.

1) shorting is really f'ing hard.
2) people panic at downward pride movement and so the moves tend to be extreme
3) there is always a bull market somewhere. Metals, crypto, forex, etc.
4) OTM wide butterflies are a cheap way to hedge with a 10:1 reward to risk ratio. Realistically you can hope for 300%. Still good
5) you can use collars to protect what you have. Sell covered calls and use the premium to buy puts.
6) I don't think this is the big dump. I think that starts in Q3. It will be a long, slow grind down. Do not be surprised if we end the year at 3500 or less. I'm not in the bear heaven <2000 camp.
7) watch 3680 and 3730. If 3680 has a close below it, we are going to 3600 or lower. It is possible to go to 3900 if we get above 3730. Once we get to 3900, be prepared for a grind down.
Spaceship
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Good post on PHUN
aggies4life
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You are awesome. I hope it doesn't take you much of your time to do these... I'd add ones many are in like $roku, $wwr, $ontx, $cidm, $amzn,$clov...
$30,000 Millionaire
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General opinion: I don't do exotic hedges like triple leveraged dollar funds. Short the indexes or be long volatility. VXX or /VIX is a lot harder to trade. You can own ETFs such as SH or SPXU.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Posting a chart is easy. Deciding what to do is hard.
GigEmRangers75455
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Zack Morris on twitter pumping Fubo. Welcome to the new age of trading where now we know that stock should have a green Monday.
irish pete ag06
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MEag02 said:

Okay I'm doing it! I was so intimidated before with the lingo and mechanics of options, but OA's seminar has given me the confidence to finally dip my toes in. Spent today gaming out different scenarios with a stock I have seen huge gains from ($SENS) based on the wisdom I gained following this thread for 2 years. I have yet to go net free on this, but I believe in the long term prospects of the company (lot of first hand experience in this industry), and I want to hold as many shares as I can. Finally understand how covered calls can get me to my goals with very little risk! Thanks OA!!!!!!


Don't sell covered calls on a meme stock like I did. Ahem EXPR.
Chef Elko
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Anyone have opinions on trimming some MGNI? It's battling hard with the $35 level and I feel it could go back to $30 if we open red Monday.
FbgTxAg
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backintexas2013 said:

I'm really curious about AAPL too. Just seems crazy to sell off like it did after crushing it.


Benzinga is bullish on it in a piece out today, but these days good news and good press doesn't necessarily equal upward movement. But a rando tweet or meme somewhere and a stock will go stupid.

I'm confident in AAPL, but I really need it to be strong like bull THIS week 140+.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
Colt98
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MGNI is going do a bit for me. I need to buy back some CC I sold a few weeks ago. Once I do that it will resume upward...
DisAg
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I'm still trying to wrap my head around the trading language. I have had a quick three day Google fu session to learn a small part of it, but some of the posts I may as well be reading San script (I am just not there yet).

I recently went in on AMC at 9.5 @ 760 shares knowing full well this was a meme stock, but if it gets from point A to point B who cares if it is a meme.

So far even if I was to sell off those shares as of Friday I would have made a good return. I have stayed in because from what information I could gather a lot of analyst thinks there are big bets on the stock hitting 40.

While I know the only rational explanation for the stock that should be worthless and was on the brink of bankruptcy to now having a positive outlook because of debt being converted to stock and more capital injections is because of a populist movement based on emotion and not rational thinking.

I am wondering IF I turn a nice profit off of this movement I am interested in rational trading based off of good research and being able to read the market or stock itself. Basically what I am asking is where should I start?

Quick note: I took a very small percentage of my liquidity that is basically doing nothing to risk investing in the AMC Reddit wave. I am not a WSB yolo trader. I have a wife and two kids to worry about, and I am back in college finishing my degree since being laid off from this covid pandemic. I am just tired of my money sitting in a savings account doing nothing. I would like to put some of it to work. Keep in mind I have Roth's, and rollovers IRA too for retirement. I am just strictly speaking to my cash on hand.

Apologies in advance if this post comes off dumb, I rarely post on forums where I am ignorant on the topic and have my hat in hand asking for advice.
ebdb_bnb
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Guitarsoup said:

backintexas2013 said:

I'm really curious about AAPL too. Just seems crazy to sell off like it did after crushing it.
There was some talk about people selling off AAPL to cover short positions. I dont know if there is any validity. Not worried about it long term.


When the HFs are paying anywhere between 20-80% on the GME short, they definitely had to sell winners.
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