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TexasAg2017
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oldarmy1 said:

Bob Knights Liver said:

If you had 4 contracts at a $110 strike and the stock goes to $114 instead of having to wait for the market to open you could short 400 shares at $114 and then lock in that $4/share instead of just hoping it stays up there when the market opens.


Correct. There are so many times a stock spikes or tanks in premarket or post market and by the time markets open they have equalized erasing a lot of the gains.

We had AMC $2.50 LEAPS that cost us $1.25 for the right to buy the shares at $2.50 ANY TIME between now and January 2023. Our plan was to count on the opening of the economy to give an initial bounce, to sell as low of % of our calls as possible to recapture our investment and then let the rest hopefully move higher.

It worked with the announcements of opening sending AMC to over $5 allowing us to sell only 28% of the Calls to recapture our investment. But then reddit hit and the stock jumped to over $25 premarket a few days later. Obviously we can't trade options premarket so your choice is to agonizingly wait for the open and hope it stays up there (it didn't - it fell to $16 and below) OR since your calls give you the right to call out shares at $2.50 what you do is SHORT AMC at the premarket price of $26.20.

Instead of covering that short by buying shares in the market you just call out your $2.50 calls. Your total cost for the shares was $2.50 + $1.25 premium so $3.75. Your short was say $25.75. That net then is $22/share.

For every 1 call you paid $125 for you made $2200. Of you didn't short it then you would have sold your leaps at the open for around $17 or $1700/share. Not bad but not nearly as good as $2200. 100 calls brought in $220k in under a week!


This makes so much sense after I thought about it but it blew my mind the first time I read it. It makes a ton of sense though.
Engine10
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FbgTxAg said:

Mr President Elect said:

I rarely excercise the calls and most people sell them prior to expiration. I usually shoot for trying to sell them at least 10 days out.


Huh? I just let them go? Why did I buy the calls if I wouldn't use them if they get past the strike?
A lot of trades I'm in with options are for the trade only, no interest in acquiring the shares. It's a great way to express a trade view at scale without committing the capital to buy the shares outright to open the trade.

Options endgame takes a bit of planning and creative accounting. If you wanted to call out the shares @ $138x5x100 ($69k) - you'd need that capital ready from other means.

Consider this though - if you already own 500 of $AAPL @ $140 ($70k holding), and your trade works and AAPL goes from $131 to $140 next week, you can sell the options and take that increase in premium. Your book won't show this, but you should count the gain from that sale against your total cost of owning $AAPL. Hence the creative accounting.

Example: At the money options for 2/5 AAPL sit at $3,$4 bucks right now. Let's say AAPL makes your move early in the week so the time decay hasn't hit it too bad. If you sell to close 5 contracts at that price, you'd take down 5x$4x100: $2k.

$70k-$2k: $68k vs. $69k for exercising the options
McInnis 03
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TexasAg2017 said:

oldarmy1 said:

Bob Knights Liver said:

If you had 4 contracts at a $110 strike and the stock goes to $114 instead of having to wait for the market to open you could short 400 shares at $114 and then lock in that $4/share instead of just hoping it stays up there when the market opens.


Correct. There are so many times a stock spikes or tanks in premarket or post market and by the time markets open they have equalized erasing a lot of the gains.

We had AMC $2.50 LEAPS that cost us $1.25 for the right to buy the shares at $2.50 ANY TIME between now and January 2023. Our plan was to count on the opening of the economy to give an initial bounce, to sell as low of % of our calls as possible to recapture our investment and then let the rest hopefully move higher.

It worked with the announcements of opening sending AMC to over $5 allowing us to sell only 28% of the Calls to recapture our investment. But then reddit hit and the stock jumped to over $25 premarket a few days later. Obviously we can't trade options premarket so your choice is to agonizingly wait for the open and hope it stays up there (it didn't - it fell to $16 and below) OR since your calls give you the right to call out shares at $2.50 what you do is SHORT AMC at the premarket price of $26.20.

Instead of covering that short by buying shares in the market you just call out your $2.50 calls. Your total cost for the shares was $2.50 + $1.25 premium so $3.75. Your short was say $25.75. That net then is $22/share.

For every 1 call you paid $125 for you made $2200. Of you didn't short it then you would have sold your leaps at the open for around $17 or $1700/share. Not bad but not nearly as good as $2200. 100 calls brought in $220k in under a week!


This makes so much sense after I thought about it but it blew my mind the first time I read it. It makes a ton of sense though.


"Short above a long call, buy below a long put.
FbgTxAg
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Engine10 said:

FbgTxAg said:

Mr President Elect said:

I rarely excercise the calls and most people sell them prior to expiration. I usually shoot for trying to sell them at least 10 days out.


Huh? I just let them go? Why did I buy the calls if I wouldn't use them if they get past the strike?
A lot of trades I'm in with options are for the trade only, no interest in acquiring the shares. It's a great way to express a trade view at scale without committing the capital to buy the shares outright to open the trade.

Options endgame takes a bit of planning and creative accounting. If you wanted to call out the shares @ $138x5x100 ($69k) - you'd need that capital ready from other means.

Consider this though - if you already own 500 of $AAPL @ $140 ($70k holding), and your trade works and AAPL goes from $131 to $140 next week, you can sell the options and take that increase in premium. Your book won't show this, but you should count the gain from that sale against your total cost of owning $AAPL. Hence the creative accounting.

Example: At the money options for 2/5 AAPL sit at $3,$4 bucks right now. Let's say AAPL makes your move early in the week so the time decay hasn't hit it too bad. If you sell to close 5 contracts at that price, you'd take down 5x$4x100: $2k.

$70k-$2k: $68k vs. $69k for exercising the options


I think I'm starting to understand how options traders are able to keep a helluva lot more cash than us basic stock buyers and sellers.

Thank you (all).
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
Engine10
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This is one of those things that I gotta paper trade to practice the mechanics on, but excited to have it in the tool kit. It's a simple move but I want to have the steps down cold on how to unwind the trade re:short/buy shares, exercise option, etc
bmks270
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oldarmy1 said:

BudFox7 said:

The patterns OA is teaching could fairly easily be incorporated into a pattern matching algo. You'd need an exit criteria to know if it outperforms common long only strategies.

I'd be interested to see if it's a sustainable strategy.


I can assure you it has sustained every trade brought to here, and over my trading career. Let's talk about that incorporation into an algo. I'd be very interested in building that.

You haven't done this yet?
What platforms allows you to write your own algorithms? What is the data set format and what does it look? Raw price data, daily, hourly, time...? high, low, open, close, volume?
Aren't there platforms out there that let you create custom indicators?
OE_Ag11
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You have to have access to margin to do this. Which is a loan from the brokerage for the most part. Not exactly sure how they figure out what interest you owe. But they do charge you interest and each broker has their own apr so something to watch as well
Philip J Fry
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jwhitlock3 said:

Philip J Fry said:

Lol. Sorry. I really have meant to focus on it more this past year. Apple is forcing me to do a wholesale rewrite to get it compatible with Metal. It's ultimately going to require me to redo it in C++, which isn't horrible because now I can actually make android and iOS compatible with multiplayer. It's just a **** ton of work and I'm too old to learn new languages.


Is your app Texas 42 by Maroon Entertainment? Want to be sure I'm getting the right one.


That would be mine. Hasn't changed much since 2012. Hard to believe that the only platform back then to worry about was the iPhone 3 and the new fandangled retinal iPhone 4.
irish pete ag06
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BREwmaster said:



MARA and the other bitcoin stocks should rocket next week.

loaded SNDL this week, I think we see $2 in the not so distant future. In the meantime, will sell inflated cc's (man the what premium on this one).


My exact same approach on SNDL
tsuag10
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How significant is it that SPY closed below the 50D EMA?

The last 2 times it did that (Sept & Oct), it was at least 4 days before it was back above the 50D EMA.
ag94whoop
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I thought about getting into MARA this week but didn't

Still a small fish so I'm limited in what I play in.

Stuck in a bad decision but with PINS but that will eventually be ok. Bought into and increased position in CLOV, bought back into XL and into BFT. Holding messily 400 shares of NOK just in case that ever decides to do anything other than slide.

Almost bought back into AAPL but it just barely missed my limit and by time I saw it it was over what I wanted in at.
$30,000 Millionaire
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ag94whoop said:

I thought about getting into MARA this week but didn't

Still a small fish so I'm limited in what I play in.

Stuck in a bad decision but with PINS but that will eventually be ok. Bought into and increased position in CLOV, bought back into XL and into BFT. Holding messily 400 shares of NOK just in case that ever decides to do anything other than slide.

Almost bought back into AAPL but it just barely missed my limit and by time I saw it it was over what I wanted in at.


Why is PINS a bad decision? That may work out just fine. It had great relative strength today.
Red Rover
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As of Wednesday I was having an unbelievable January, but the last two days really hurt. I had moved money out of the market, I have hedges, and I made some decent moves but still took huge losses. I gave back almost a third of what I've earned this month. I will need to take a hard look at my strategy for next week for a rebound, consolidation here, or further fall to the 200 MA.
mpl35
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Philip J Fry said:

jwhitlock3 said:

Philip J Fry said:

Lol. Sorry. I really have meant to focus on it more this past year. Apple is forcing me to do a wholesale rewrite to get it compatible with Metal. It's ultimately going to require me to redo it in C++, which isn't horrible because now I can actually make android and iOS compatible with multiplayer. It's just a **** ton of work and I'm too old to learn new languages.


Is your app Texas 42 by Maroon Entertainment? Want to be sure I'm getting the right one.


That would be mine. Hasn't changed much since 2012. Hard to believe that the only platform back then to worry about was the iPhone 3 and the new fandangled retinal iPhone 4.


I've cussed you and thanked you. Anytime the AI wasn't playing it right......

But I've played your app for 8 years. Including about 6 hours stuck in a tent on the 4 pass loop in Colorado with my wife. We alternated hands while storms passed by.
bmks270
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tsuag10 said:

How significant is it that SPY closed below the 50D EMA?

The last 2 times it did that (Sept & Oct), it was at least 4 days before it was back above the 50D EMA.


4 DAYS!!!

Say it isn't so!
oldarmy1
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bmks270 said:

oldarmy1 said:

BudFox7 said:

The patterns OA is teaching could fairly easily be incorporated into a pattern matching algo. You'd need an exit criteria to know if it outperforms common long only strategies.

I'd be interested to see if it's a sustainable strategy.


I can assure you it has sustained every trade brought to here, and over my trading career. Let's talk about that incorporation into an algo. I'd be very interested in building that.

You haven't done this yet?
What platforms allows you to write your own algorithms? What is the data set format and what does it look? Raw price data, daily, hourly, time...? high, low, open, close, volume?
Aren't there platforms out there that let you create custom indicators?



The software I've had developed identifies those stocks reaching a moving average tiered by 8/21/50/200, volume, RSI and 15 other variables but once alerted it still takes eyes on for determining optimal entry. That's why the majority of the options posted are seeking a 100%+ gain.

AAPL call decision was based on recent support and volumes post earnings and not on the regular formula, and the macro markets have that trade at the edge of a stop. Since we closed below a key mark, although close we likely at the least have to endure a red premarket resulting in AAPL crossing to new lows combined with weekend decay means a decision must be made to hold at the open hoping it is a flash down and rally or execute a stop that likely would be below $1.

I generally never sell at the open since the loss is already occurred. I figure with that reality I might as well see if markets reclaim the key levels quickly and a rally ensues. That almost always occurs in the first 45 minutes so the loss already felt is worth 45 minutes.



59 South
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$VRM new one I'm watching. Need to do some DD and study. I keep seeing some trusted follows mention and talk of institutional accumulation at these levels. Anybody already on it or in it?
BrokeAssAggie
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Is it Monday yet?
ProgN
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Reddit frenzy pumps up Dogecoin, cryptocurrency started as a joke

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/dogecoin-cryptocurrency-rises-over-400percent-after-reddit-group-talks-it-up.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
FJ43
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CrazyRichAggie said:

Is it Monday yet?
Good to know I'm not the only one that thinks this way. The weekends for me are good to clear the mind, enjoy time with family and reflect on adjustments I need to make for the new week ahead.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FriskyGardenGnome
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Thinkorswim allows custom indicators. Syntax isn't too difficult, and is similar to other platforms, tradestation, etc.
Madmarttigan
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59 South said:

$VRM new one I'm watching. Need to do some DD and study. I keep seeing some trusted follows mention and talk of institutional accumulation at these levels. Anybody already on it or in it?


Was hoping to catch this one off of 30 a while ago. Still looking for buying opportunity
Formerly tv1113
PGAG
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oldarmy1 said:

BudFox7 said:

The patterns OA is teaching could fairly easily be incorporated into a pattern matching algo. You'd need an exit criteria to know if it outperforms common long only strategies.

I'd be interested to see if it's a sustainable strategy.


I can assure you it has sustained every trade brought to here, and over my trading career. Let's talk about that incorporation into an algo. I'd be very interested in building that.

I was thinking the same. Teach the computer to look for Model T.
irish pete ag06
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Tell me about your stop losses if you don't mind.

Is there a method to them?

How do you use them on calls & puts?
oldarmy1
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PGAG said:

oldarmy1 said:

BudFox7 said:

The patterns OA is teaching could fairly easily be incorporated into a pattern matching algo. You'd need an exit criteria to know if it outperforms common long only strategies.

I'd be interested to see if it's a sustainable strategy.


I can assure you it has sustained every trade brought to here, and over my trading career. Let's talk about that incorporation into an algo. I'd be very interested in building that.

I was thinking the same. Teach the computer to look for Model T.


I can't express the joy I have reading the emails of people who have capitalized on mainly the Model T pattern. Huge returns including one who outdid my AAPL share buy at that low point, where I overbuy long shares by 20% to sell into Model T. He sold 100% at Model T, bought expiring $332 outs for $0.24 and sold those for $0.51 on the quick drop back.

Really really strategic thinking!

Another person made $10k on a Model T trade in PETS calls.

ag94whoop
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

ag94whoop said:

I thought about getting into MARA this week but didn't

Still a small fish so I'm limited in what I play in.

Stuck in a bad decision but with PINS but that will eventually be ok. Bought into and increased position in CLOV, bought back into XL and into BFT. Holding messily 400 shares of NOK just in case that ever decides to do anything other than slide.

Almost bought back into AAPL but it just barely missed my limit and by time I saw it it was over what I wanted in at.


Why is PINS a bad decision? That may work out just fine. It had great relative strength today.


Buying PINS wasn't a bad decision, like I said it will end up fine. The problem is what I paid for it. I was not looking at a wide enough trend line and thought I was buying at the bottom of a small dip and was looking to swing play it within 48 hrs. I ended up buying it at the beginning of a slide. Was just a bad read but not a bad stock. I bought at just over $72. I was looking at a 1week and saw the peaks at nearly 76 and multiple time so I expected a repeat of that trend short term. But instead I bought at the beginning of a short slide.

It will be fine, it's just a stock I intended to hold 1-2 days that I will hold a week or two instead. Not a big issue unless a correction comes while I'm holding it. That's all. I'm not worried, more irritated with myself for not checking out longer trends first. Frankly it could have just been one of those stocks liquidated for the Reddit plays and may bounce back once those plays flatten
McInnis 03
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Now that uncle Sam is diving into things thanks to the RH fiasco this week, I think the CBOE access will be where limits get imposed. They'll probably make it so you can't buy more than you can cash secure on exercise. :/


tlepoC
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I missed the second half of the seminar due to work chaos so hoping the rewatch helps solidify. I still struggle on exactly where to target the model t strikes for optimal return. Do I buy calls/puts just under or over the retrace level? That way... Even if it takes a while to retrace, I know the premium hasn't decayed enough to kill the trade? Or do I just look at where the premium is cheapest and just bank on the move being quick enough to have a gain regardless. Perhaps it doesn't matter that much - each traders flavor - and I'm overcomplicating.

I am also certainly playing around with pattern recognition. I'm better with a computers eyes than I am with my own.
leoj
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PGAG said:

oldarmy1 said:

BudFox7 said:

The patterns OA is teaching could fairly easily be incorporated into a pattern matching algo. You'd need an exit criteria to know if it outperforms common long only strategies.

I'd be interested to see if it's a sustainable strategy.


I can assure you it has sustained every trade brought to here, and over my trading career. Let's talk about that incorporation into an algo. I'd be very interested in building that.

I was thinking the same. Teach the computer to look for Model T.


Could possibly use Fibonacci scripts?
gougler08
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59 South said:

$VRM new one I'm watching. Need to do some DD and study. I keep seeing some trusted follows mention and talk of institutional accumulation at these levels. Anybody already on it or in it?


I like the chart...going to put an alert if it breaks below $33 to check out for a firm support double bottom
Colt98
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So with spy starting to break. I guess we are going to start looking for down side plays?? Question. I have spy puts and vix calls. Sold some to go net free on them Friday. I wish I had more hedge than I do. Should I look for shorter time hedge on Monday? Looks like we will see low 360's this next week.

Oh and I was only able to get to 20% cash this week. Most money in MA stocks withCC which I did buy back some of these this week. With surgery on Friday I wasn't able to do much.
wanderer
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Not sure if this was the original WSB post about the GME play or not, but its from 4-5mo ago. Fascinating to read the post after the fact.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ip6jnv/the_real_greatest_short_burn_of_the_century/?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=&utm_content=post_body
BlueTaze
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Has anyone looked at UUP (dollar bull fund) leaps as a hedge?

You can load 2023 $25 calls sub $1 and it's trading around $24.40 now. It's got low IV and you don't get the decay of SPXS/SQQQ etc.

I don't see the USD losing reserve status soon, so it's still the relative winner in fiat. Easy 5x bagger if there is major market crash before 23'. I think USD is also heavily shorted so you front run that covering.

If you are going to sit on cash in account, why not a chunk in UUP calls?
Rice and Fries
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wanderer said:

Not sure if this was the original WSB post about the GME play or not, but its from 4-5mo ago. Fascinating to read the post after the fact.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ip6jnv/the_real_greatest_short_burn_of_the_century/?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=&utm_content=post_body


I've been lurking Wallstreetbets since 2012. It honestly has some well thought out due diligence. The community eggs it on and you eventually get a few industry guys to look into stuff. Of course, they also swing on some pretty insane options and way OTM calls hoping to profit.
leoj
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AG
Spin-off from the Dow reorganization right? Has the materials sector been on an uptrend?
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