GME see's $500+ tomorrow before 11am
Stock Markets
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Last: 29 min ago by ProgN
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Citadel is about as big as it gets, manage something over a trillion in assets.gig em 02 said:I think we are thinking the same thing at the same time, however, I was basing my thoughts on the volume and quality of posts over the last couple days.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I am very concerned with how futures are looking right now.
I think people are legitimately concerned about what would happen if Robinhood, Melvin, and Citadel really take a massive L tomorrow. Apparently Citadel isn't a Robinhood client, its the parent company.
I forgot to mention it earlier but OA sounds almost exactly like Nick Saban
Are you saying they are too big to fail?
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
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How long do you want to ignore this user?
Headed to 3721 now. Better hold or we are flushing on a Friday
This whole GME and co. short squeeze situation has shown something very ugly about the overall state of markets - the absence of liquidity. On Wednesday, many of the funds holding any of the most shorted stocks had to liquidate their long assets to meet margin calls or maintain the portfolio VaR levels.
Today when RH & Webull announced they would allow GME to be bought tomorrow, SPX took a nosedive again. Hedgefunds and Market Makers are bracing for what happens tomorrow. If they arent able to somehow contain price below 500, there's going to be a few brokerages, HF's and Market Makers that could be in deep trouble as there arent any shares available for the notional call delta out there that is ITM.
Also wanted to add that, this has been an overall issue in the markets for the last year. The notional value of call deltas on many stocks far exceed the float. If at anytime there was a universally coordinated effort and everyone exercised their calls, the whole sytem would crash. Opening up options trading to retail, was like bringing a tiger cub home for the Market Makers. Initially fun and a huge money maker. But now its a full grown tiger and they are afraid to sleep at night.
Today when RH & Webull announced they would allow GME to be bought tomorrow, SPX took a nosedive again. Hedgefunds and Market Makers are bracing for what happens tomorrow. If they arent able to somehow contain price below 500, there's going to be a few brokerages, HF's and Market Makers that could be in deep trouble as there arent any shares available for the notional call delta out there that is ITM.
Also wanted to add that, this has been an overall issue in the markets for the last year. The notional value of call deltas on many stocks far exceed the float. If at anytime there was a universally coordinated effort and everyone exercised their calls, the whole sytem would crash. Opening up options trading to retail, was like bringing a tiger cub home for the Market Makers. Initially fun and a huge money maker. But now its a full grown tiger and they are afraid to sleep at night.
Also wanted to add this:
To go along with what I said above, the go to move this past year for most institutional players has been shorting vol after a big pop like wednesday. I'm sure they did the same thing today.
So now you have these HF's that have liquidity issues that are also short vol. And I wont get too technical but the current SPX vol to VIX beta is at an extreme correlation (thats why you saw a 70% jump in VIX with a -2.75% move in SPX). All these ingredients creates a powder keg of a situation.
To go along with what I said above, the go to move this past year for most institutional players has been shorting vol after a big pop like wednesday. I'm sure they did the same thing today.
So now you have these HF's that have liquidity issues that are also short vol. And I wont get too technical but the current SPX vol to VIX beta is at an extreme correlation (thats why you saw a 70% jump in VIX with a -2.75% move in SPX). All these ingredients creates a powder keg of a situation.
One thing people aren't thinking about is a lot of people are getting their pay checks tomorrow morning. Guess where its probably going. AMC, GME, BB, NOK, SNDL etc.
When I read aggiedaniel06's posts, I feel well informed and dumb simultaneously.
Keep it coming. Post more please!
Keep it coming. Post more please!
aggiedaniel06 said:
Also wanted to add this:
To go along with what I said above, the go to move this past year for most institutional players has been shorting vol after a big pop like wednesday. I'm sure they did the same thing today.
So now you have these HF's that have liquidity issues that are also short vol. And I wont get too technical but the current SPX vol to VIX beta is at an extreme correlation (thats why you saw a 70% jump in VIX with a -2.75% move in SPX). All these ingredients creates a powder keg of a situation.
Which is why the consensus of "this is a bubble, try not to over-extend" sounds even smarter now. If there's no money to pay out... It could start to unravel.
Thanks for the info, I was wondering what your thoughts on this and the overall market were. Hopefully what you are saying is uvxy to 200 is a real possibility on a short squeeze of VIX.
where are you buying DOGE? I have multiple brokerage and crypto accounts and none of them offer it. All the info out there seems dated and not to work in '21.
The only place I've bought doge is robinhood and they're on my sh list. Coinbase and gemini don't.
Thanks. Not just on the bad list but you also don't own the actual asset.
ehrmantraut said:
GME see's $500+ tomorrow before 11am
Got my limit order set for $700, just in case.
tsuag10 said:
When I read aggiedaniel06's posts, I feel well informed and dumb simultaneously.
Keep it coming. Post more please!
I'm just glad he shows up periodically to remind me how stupid I am.
Listen to this interview with the CEO of Webull..it's lengthy but he gets right to the point on decision to halt trading. As many have said here, this looks like its causing major disruption in the broader market.
Prognightmare said:I hold zero mutual funds and have outperformed the best mutual funds every year for over 25 years by being an active trader, fwiw.OE_Ag11 said:
So based on some of the stuff in the class. Do yall still keep mutual funds or anything like that as well. Or how does that work into the trading and investments? Or is everything cash and short trades for the most part?
Oh Prog now you're just talking dirty
Morning Fellas
-BTC. Has rallied 12% overnight. Currently at $37.5K
- 10YR UST yields has also rallied 2bps to 1.07 which is interesting because of SPY selling off at the moment.
- SPY is trading down almost 1%
- VIX AMD SPXS are up between 3-4%.
In other news, GME is blowing past $400 at the moment. BB is at $17.50.
What's interesting to me is I normally feel like the treasuries are the Cary's in the coal mine with down movements, but the yields are up which means people are selling. Not sure what it means but I also look more towards Aggie Daniels take on what's happening.
These damn WSB kids may have lit the fuse that tanked the market, who knows but there is an incoming liquidity crunch and I plan on liquidating further today to raise more cash.
-BTC. Has rallied 12% overnight. Currently at $37.5K
- 10YR UST yields has also rallied 2bps to 1.07 which is interesting because of SPY selling off at the moment.
- SPY is trading down almost 1%
- VIX AMD SPXS are up between 3-4%.
In other news, GME is blowing past $400 at the moment. BB is at $17.50.
What's interesting to me is I normally feel like the treasuries are the Cary's in the coal mine with down movements, but the yields are up which means people are selling. Not sure what it means but I also look more towards Aggie Daniels take on what's happening.
These damn WSB kids may have lit the fuse that tanked the market, who knows but there is an incoming liquidity crunch and I plan on liquidating further today to raise more cash.
Rice and Fries said:
Morning Fellas
-BTC. Has rallied 12% overnight. Currently at $37.5K
- 10YR UST yields has also rallied 2bps to 1.07 which is interesting because of SPY selling off at the moment.
- SPY is trading down almost 1%
- VIX AMD SPXS are up between 3-4%.
In other news, GME is blowing past $400 at the moment. BB is at $17.50.
What's interesting to me is I normally feel like the treasuries are the Cary's in the coal mine with down movements, but the yields are up which means people are selling. Not sure what it means but I also look more towards Aggie Daniels take on what's happening.
These damn WSB kids may have lit the fuse that tanked the market, who knows but there is an incoming liquidity crunch and I plan on liquidating further today to raise more cash.
Cash to hold or cash for impending opportunity?
Had some 'free' time this morning and wanted to dissect the PLTR 2/5 30 calls exit from Wednesday. I posted that I exited at $14 from $1.10 entry on 1/13. How about them apples ($1100 to $14k in 2 weeks!). My style is a bit different that most of you guys so keep that in mind. I usually only have a single options trade open at a time and I watch it like a hawk. I'm patient for entries and exits and have gotten a lot better discipline on both when convicted. This play was not my own obviously as I just followed OA, but after seeing him post about it I took some time to take a look and waited to enter later than most. I did my own DD on it and agreed that it was in a hell of a set up for a potential big gain.
For those on the seminar last night, OA didn't have time to discuss (I don't think so anyways, I was tired after a 17 hour day), but the capitulation moves on the 1 minute charts with the tricksy moves work both ways for both entries and exits. I've been following him for about 4 years now and he has explained this in the past. So the same logic for entries he went over works the same in reverse for exits (on any time interval, minute, hour, daily, etc.).
Anyways, the intraday price action on PLTR on Wednesday was spot on with the OA methods. Here it is:
For those on the seminar last night, OA didn't have time to discuss (I don't think so anyways, I was tired after a 17 hour day), but the capitulation moves on the 1 minute charts with the tricksy moves work both ways for both entries and exits. I've been following him for about 4 years now and he has explained this in the past. So the same logic for entries he went over works the same in reverse for exits (on any time interval, minute, hour, daily, etc.).
Anyways, the intraday price action on PLTR on Wednesday was spot on with the OA methods. Here it is:
McInnis 03 said:Here we go?McInnis 03 said:
If BTBT breaks 19.25 it has some serious room to run......consol on the 10m now.
TELL ME YOU FOLLOWED. DID ANYONE FOLLOW!!??
Cash to hold. Trading thin with large cash reserves. I've made a lot of "tendies" this past few months that I want to keep/protect.
The scariest part about this whole GME Debacle is the fact that shorts don't expire. These kids can drive the price if GME up and up and it's going to feed into the broader market, sucking even more liquidity out of the market.
I just think this is going to end badly when the dust settles.
The scariest part about this whole GME Debacle is the fact that shorts don't expire. These kids can drive the price if GME up and up and it's going to feed into the broader market, sucking even more liquidity out of the market.
I just think this is going to end badly when the dust settles.
For any of you who have ever lived abroad, I just BTFD on GBPUSD for my monthly transfer. It works for currencies too! I saved about $40-50 this month by transferring this morning versus yesterday.
Oh I followed but sold $20 cc
Just to pile on RH some more, I had a small account I played some options on but I transferred it all out last night to my Fidelity account.
Question for you guys, do you have multiple brokerage accounts for different things? I only have one main one in Fidelity that I use but thinking about setting up 2 more to have 3 taxable total:
1) Long term holds & net free shares (rarely any action outside of adding net frees and occasional covered calls)
2) Swing and accumulation shares and selling covered calls & cash covered puts
3) Options
Work upwards rebalancing every so often. For example, 3) goes from 10k to 20k, move 10k up to 2). Go net free in 2), move net free shares to 1) and forget. 1) grows from 2), 2) grows from 3). Anybody do anything similar?
Question for you guys, do you have multiple brokerage accounts for different things? I only have one main one in Fidelity that I use but thinking about setting up 2 more to have 3 taxable total:
1) Long term holds & net free shares (rarely any action outside of adding net frees and occasional covered calls)
2) Swing and accumulation shares and selling covered calls & cash covered puts
3) Options
Work upwards rebalancing every so often. For example, 3) goes from 10k to 20k, move 10k up to 2). Go net free in 2), move net free shares to 1) and forget. 1) grows from 2), 2) grows from 3). Anybody do anything similar?
NAILED IT59 South said:
For any of you who have ever lived abroad, I just BTFD on GBPUSD for my monthly transfer. It works for currencies too! I saved about $40-50 this month by transferring this morning versus yesterday.
In just under $17.
LET'S FRIGGIN GO!!!
LET'S FRIGGIN GO!!!
Somehow the bleeding reversed. Fed make liquidity available in some form?
Welcome to the party Janet Yellen
Welcome to the party Janet Yellen
Well today is going to be interesting to watch.
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