Exercised my Cadence options today. $2.50 strikes at $2.05 purchase price. Cadence ended today at $15.28. I'll take those shares and that price!!
Stock Markets
25,046,369 Views |
233821 Replies |
Last: 1 hr ago by Ragoo
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,985
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
For discussion sake, why did you choose to exercise rather than cashing out the calls?
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,985
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
NRD09 said:CreakinDeacon said:
What's this???
Just a 14.4MM block purchase on MSFT 12/18 250C. Only ~$28 out of them money in two months
These are 2.28 now, or 245/250 spreads for .75
Sometimes the big money doesn't know... lost a good chunk of change chasing these
I did sell some 220p this week for over $7 that will get assigned so I'm happy about those
Besides this and amd, yesterday was pretty awesome for me, luckily i scaled out of some of my 95/100 spreads at a few points earlier this week so when i sold the last one for 50c with minutes to go (to avoid getting assigned) i was still in good shape. Last couple 180/190 crwd verticals maxed out, kinda wish i hadn't closed a 180/200 earlier this week but impossible to know that the solarwinds/dod thing was going to happen yesterday. Went net free on those a while ago so felt good to see the plan play out. A couple goco 10/12.5 spreads i bought a long time ago for like .2 each maxed out. Got assigned some wwr, and had a couple lotto calls expire worthless. Opex is always nice for cleaning up the ol dashboard. Planning to sit on a whole bunch of cash until probably the second week of January.
Oh and it looks like cyrx is in a solid 47-52 (10%!) channel. I may try to swing calls on this and/or accumulate net free shares.
Oh and my other thought for the next couple weeks is to pick out some $dg spreads for q4 earnings.
Fubo $40 AH. Wow
NRD09 said:
For discussion sake, why did you choose to exercise rather than cashing out the calls?
I think Cadence will be back at $30ish a share by mid 2021. They've made a lot of progress on cleaning up their loan portfolio that was what caused them to drop so much. They're an SEC conference bank (minus Louisiana) and if they don't recover fast enough, they're a tremendous acquisition target for someone like PNC, Fifth Third, US Bank, etc.
When I bought those calls (and recommended the stock here), they were trading WELL below their tangible book value. A lot of regional banks were hit big during the pandemic because of concerns over RE portfolios and small business loans. Most banks have significantly reserved and barring a Biden lockdown, we should be in a decent position as an industry.
One thing that drove a lot of the price drop on CADE's stock, and many of their peers is the large volume of redemptions required by fund managers when people wanted to sell their etf's. When COVID hit, bank stocks were hit hard...and people sold....and stocks went down...and more people sold. Then they got down to 1/3rd - 1/2 of pre-pandemic values and people started buying again. The analyst price targets for most regional banks are now 75%-85% of actual share price...with Buy/Strong Buy recommendations.
I think all the stimulus plus extended low rates will keep bank cost of funds low and stimulate some steady growth for 2021. Finally, Get through 2020 and they will hopefully increase their dividend.
Full disclosure- I'm a banker and compete with Cadence and have multiple friends at Cadence.
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,985
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Appreciate the in depth response. I do like cade, did well swinging it for a while, probably on your recommendation (like most of my plays recently I'd have been better off if i just bought and held) So you're holding now? Sell calls/wheel? I thought cade was pretty deep into small e&p companies and therefore susceptible to crude price swings with travel restrictions/shutdowns. Concerns with increasing regulations on banks with incoming administration?
NRD09 said:
Appreciate the in depth response. I do like cade, did well swinging it for a while, probably on your recommendation (like most of my plays recently I'd have been better off if i just bought and held) So you're holding now? Sell calls/wheel? I thought cade was pretty deep into small e&p companies and therefore susceptible to crude price swings with travel restrictions/shutdowns. Concerns with increasing regulations on banks with incoming administration?
Their energy exposure is primarily in midstream and downstream. E&P is pretty small and adequately reserved (IMO). I'm going to hold long term because I think it's a valuable franchise with great geographical presence. They will either grow on their own, or be an acquisition target. Not a lot of in between.
I think the trade strategy analysis suggested a page back is an awesome idea, and I'd love to get some data on what's working well.
I am not planning to do any trading the next two weeks that requires me to pay attention. End of year is a crazy time for my actual job trying to wrap up loose ends: finish fighting on 2021 budget, get contracts signed, etc. I'm guessing you all face the same rhetorical argument of trying to get your finance team to realize that you can't drive significant business growth and at the same time significantly cut costs. I'd like whatever magical juice they're drinking too.
My plan is to lightly monitor covered calls I sold yesterday at the open and see if there are any great setups that I can let sit until January.
I am not planning to do any trading the next two weeks that requires me to pay attention. End of year is a crazy time for my actual job trying to wrap up loose ends: finish fighting on 2021 budget, get contracts signed, etc. I'm guessing you all face the same rhetorical argument of trying to get your finance team to realize that you can't drive significant business growth and at the same time significantly cut costs. I'd like whatever magical juice they're drinking too.
My plan is to lightly monitor covered calls I sold yesterday at the open and see if there are any great setups that I can let sit until January.
BTC trying to get to $24,000. Unreal. I guess I should rethink my statement of two weeks ago that I didn't think it would get and stay at $20,000 this year.
backintexas2013 said:
BTC trying to get to $24,000. Unreal. I guess I should rethink my statement of two weeks ago that I didn't think it would get and stay at $20,000 this year.
Assets rarely linearly increase in price without fluctuations. Decide if you want to be in and at what price. $24K may seem ridiculously cheap in 5 years just as it could seem stupid for investing in it.
I am personally going to direct 10% of trading profits to crypto going forward.
Unsolicited advice part infinity: consistent profits are easier to come by with owning shares vs only options. You have a ton of flexibility. You can sell covered calls, you can set up collars, and you get the benefit of dividend ownership, all without the stress of theta decay.
Don't get me wrong, I like options - a lot. Just highlighting a lower stress path.
Don't get me wrong, I like options - a lot. Just highlighting a lower stress path.
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,985
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Ok boomer
Agree 100%
The pressure is high to select options knowing 75%+ need to be right because a) the number who join in buying your posts, and b) many who do aren't set up to exit at optimal time more often than not.
You really only need to be successful 40-45% of the time to make a good ROI on options.
That said, I tend to shift from equity shares to options after all time highs are first reached into the subsequent move upward UNTIL we get that first good correction.
That doesn't mean I don't continue to scout for mass accumulation opportunities like WWR currently. Also doesn't mean I don't have a portfolio full of shares to use all those techniques on.
The pressure is high to select options knowing 75%+ need to be right because a) the number who join in buying your posts, and b) many who do aren't set up to exit at optimal time more often than not.
You really only need to be successful 40-45% of the time to make a good ROI on options.
That said, I tend to shift from equity shares to options after all time highs are first reached into the subsequent move upward UNTIL we get that first good correction.
That doesn't mean I don't continue to scout for mass accumulation opportunities like WWR currently. Also doesn't mean I don't have a portfolio full of shares to use all those techniques on.
Agree it's why I only post options plays I'm really convicted on like when I posted AMD 87.5 12/18 calls in mid Nov when they were 2.50. Winning Bueller???
On shares it's why I post long term patient plays like CWH. We will win. Big. Just chill
On shares it's why I post long term patient plays like CWH. We will win. Big. Just chill
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
most of my recent success has been to Buy/Write out 60 days at what appear to me to be levels of support. Buying calls and flipping them in a week for multiples is sexy but a losing long term strategy.$30,000 Millionaire said:
Unsolicited advice part infinity: consistent profits are easier to come by with owning shares vs only options. You have a ton of flexibility. You can sell covered calls, you can set up collars, and you get the benefit of dividend ownership, all without the stress of theta decay.
Don't get me wrong, I like options - a lot. Just highlighting a lower stress path.
leap spreads basically? How far out of the money are you targeting usually on these? I would guess go a little further out since you have 2 months, that and/or a wider spread.Ragoo said:most of my recent success has been to Buy/Write out 60 days at what appear to me to be levels of support. Buying calls and flipping them in a week for multiples is sexy but a losing long term strategy.$30,000 Millionaire said:
Unsolicited advice part infinity: consistent profits are easier to come by with owning shares vs only options. You have a ton of flexibility. You can sell covered calls, you can set up collars, and you get the benefit of dividend ownership, all without the stress of theta decay.
Don't get me wrong, I like options - a lot. Just highlighting a lower stress path.
buying stock while selling the call out 60 days like a vertical spread that puts theta decay in my favor.BREwmaster said:leap spreads basically? How far out of the money are you targeting usually on these? I would guess go a little further out since you have 2 months, that and/or a wider spread.Ragoo said:most of my recent success has been to Buy/Write out 60 days at what appear to me to be levels of support. Buying calls and flipping them in a week for multiples is sexy but a losing long term strategy.$30,000 Millionaire said:
Unsolicited advice part infinity: consistent profits are easier to come by with owning shares vs only options. You have a ton of flexibility. You can sell covered calls, you can set up collars, and you get the benefit of dividend ownership, all without the stress of theta decay.
Don't get me wrong, I like options - a lot. Just highlighting a lower stress path.
How far OTM are you going?
aiming for 20% return if exercised at expiration.$30,000 Millionaire said:
How far OTM are you going?
Look at OSTK. I only did 30 days early last week. When around $60 I bought 300 shares and sold 3 calls at $70. Costs basis is now sub 58. You could do similar out 60 days for the $80 strike with a similar cost basis and 30% upside.
Could also hedge with the $40p same duration and be in at a $60 basis.
Could also hedge with the $40p same duration and be in at a $60 basis.
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,985
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Not Ragoo but here's my take: As I'm refining my thetagang strategy I've gotten burned enough times selling calls at the bottom of a channel just for the sake of collecting premium (and getting called out when the stock swings back into the channel and above my strike) and am starting to try to recognize when to be patient and wait a couple days to sell the calls (the stock market is a tool for transferring money from the impatient to the patient, right?). So when the sp gets some nice upward momentum I sell the strike that's right at the top of the channel. Similarly with selling puts. Like with vst i sell $18 puts and $20 calls, but i don't sell the puts until it's under $19 or the calls until its over $19. I've tried selling calls a couple strikes otm but the premium just isn't there except on the super volatile tickers and trying to run the wheel on those just hasn't worked out great for me.
So where are you now with it below 18?
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
7,985
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Wow errbody up and getting after it this morning!
I got assigned a whole bunch of shares at $18 Friday and I'm at the "being patient" part. Jumped a bit ah Friday so i think we'll get back to climbing. Since it doesn't have weeklies i may actually just sell the shares if it can hit $20 in the next week or so. Need to check on ex-div too (edit looks like that was last week). Edit2: similarly sitting on my shares of cci as well, hopefully it bounces off support around here and heads up to start juicing the 170 call premiums
I got assigned a whole bunch of shares at $18 Friday and I'm at the "being patient" part. Jumped a bit ah Friday so i think we'll get back to climbing. Since it doesn't have weeklies i may actually just sell the shares if it can hit $20 in the next week or so. Need to check on ex-div too (edit looks like that was last week). Edit2: similarly sitting on my shares of cci as well, hopefully it bounces off support around here and heads up to start juicing the 170 call premiums
I am meeting with a bitcoin millionaire tomorrow. He got in at 50. He host and does all the protocols. He says ether is better. BTC is getting controlled more and more from bigger institutions. Curious to get his insight but I am thinking of putting 25% in crypto. Look at ostko Mara and gbtc and those have been great for me.Rice and Fries said:
Ol Elon helping out BTC today
AgShaun00 said:I am meeting with a bitcoin millionaire tomorrow. He got in at 50. He host and does all the protocols. He says ether is better. BTC is getting controlled more and more from bigger institutions. Curious to get his insight but I am thinking of putting 25% in crypto. Look at ostko Mara and gbtc and those have been great for me.Rice and Fries said:
Ol Elon helping out BTC today
I never bought any BTC, just a whole lot of GBTC which is up 40% since getting in 4ish weeks ago.
I am in BTC I just didn't think we would see above $20,000 until next year. Now it's going for $24,000
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,774
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I bought another 10K of ETH this morning. It's headed to 1000
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
I bought another 10K of ETH this morning. It's headed to 1000
Senor Fog - are you buying via coinbase or some other type of digital wallet? Or are you able to purchase it via OTC via a ticker?
When all the big boys are projecting $100k-$400k I'm willing to risk a little here.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,774
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Rice and Fries said:Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
I bought another 10K of ETH this morning. It's headed to 1000
Senor Fog - are you buying via coinbase or some other type of digital wallet? Or are you able to purchase it via OTC via a ticker?
Gemini
Guess when elon tweeted about the joke currency Dogecoin...
Just saw this was part of the corona relief package. Congress will prevent and end the following fed programs:
Those four programs are the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility, the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, the Main Street Lending Program and the Municipal Credit Facility.
Any thoughts on impact?i am not very familiar with them but it would seem loaning money is a better Avenue than giving money as far as efficient distribution?
Those four programs are the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility, the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, the Main Street Lending Program and the Municipal Credit Facility.
Any thoughts on impact?i am not very familiar with them but it would seem loaning money is a better Avenue than giving money as far as efficient distribution?
The world needs mean tweets
My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA
Trump 2024
My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA
Trump 2024
Good morning!
Got a little story for you Ags,
Funny/awkward story from this morning. I took my son to Whataburger for breakfast after Mass and we ate inside. He wanted some chicken strips. He started to take all the breading off and I whispered that it was the best part. He proceeded to say, rather loudly, "NO Daddy, WHITE IS BETTER"! The son of a bald white guy saying that got some looks. Don't think my clarifying that he was referring to white meat chicken quite removed the concern in their eyes.
Got a little story for you Ags,
Funny/awkward story from this morning. I took my son to Whataburger for breakfast after Mass and we ate inside. He wanted some chicken strips. He started to take all the breading off and I whispered that it was the best part. He proceeded to say, rather loudly, "NO Daddy, WHITE IS BETTER"! The son of a bald white guy saying that got some looks. Don't think my clarifying that he was referring to white meat chicken quite removed the concern in their eyes.
Prognightmare said:
Good morning!
Got a little story for you Ags,
Funny/awkward story from this morning. I took my son to Whataburger for breakfast after Mass and we ate inside. He wanted some chicken strips. He started to take all the breading off and I whispered that it was the best part. He proceeded to say, rather loudly, "NO Daddy, WHITE IS BETTER"! The son of a bald white guy saying that got some looks. Don't think my clarifying that he was referring to white meat chicken quite removed the concern in their eyes.
Should have yelled "beef. It's what's for dinner!" To help make it less awkward.
Reminds me of my great grandma causally talking about growing up with some African American house servants (but used the slang word for it) at thanksgiving a few years ago. Totally ignoring the fact that her half black great grandson was sitting at the table. The look on my moms face was priceless.
Featured Stories
See All
85:33
5h ago
3.6k
7:22
9h ago
6.4k
35:15
7h ago
692
Pick 'Em & Rip 'Em sponsored by PrizePicks: Week 14
by Matthew Dawson
tylhair
If Elko said "if you give NIL $30M I'll get a championship roster" would you give?
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
121
nsAg21
Will it take a couple years to restore the hatred/rivalry?
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
86