McInnis 03 said:

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CVNA went f'ing nuts after last earnings if I recall right. It overshot a butterfly I had by like 30 pts. If I were playing it I'd probably do so with directional debit or credit spreads and hoping for the best.

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Grabbed a 210/220 spread for 335. Let's ride

Prognightmare said:

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ClutchCityAg said:

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BREwmaster said:

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lal4l said:

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What Calls?

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SOH = sit on hands

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For those of you degenerates out there who are bored and need to risk some money.. You can get some really good value betting on the election right now. Some bets I am taking (Odds via BetOnline):

**BTW... I think it is clear who I think will win, but you can find some good odds if you think otherwise. The value though is clearly in the Repub/Trump outcomes**

Trump to win EC: +175
Trump to win every state he won in 2016: Yes (+325)
Trump to lose every state he lost in 2016: No (+180)
Dems to sweep (Pres, House, & Senate): No (-105)
Republicans to retain Majority in Senate: Currently Locked, I got it last week for +140
Trump to win Florida (-140)
Trump to win Michigan (+200)
Trump to win Pennsylvania (+160)
Trump to win Wisconsin (+180)
John James to win Michigan Senate race (+180)

Some longer shot ones I put a small amount on just for fun:
Trump to win California: Currently Locked, I got it 2 weeks ago at +1200
Trump to win NY (+900)
O/U 209.5 House Seats won by Dems: Under (+900)
Trump to win Popular Vote: +475

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Are you sure you're not Irish? He lives in Htown and this is right up his alley.

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Haha can confirm I am not Irish, but great minds think alike!

How did you choose those strikes? Still learning spreads on paper, appreciate anything you can share

cc: resident MARA gang

ClutchCityAg said:

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Prognightmare said:

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ClutchCityAg said:

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BREwmaster said:

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lal4l said:

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What Calls?

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SOH = sit on hands

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For those of you degenerates out there who are bored and need to risk some money.. You can get some really good value betting on the election right now. Some bets I am taking (Odds via BetOnline):

**BTW... I think it is clear who I think will win, but you can find some good odds if you think otherwise. The value though is clearly in the Repub/Trump outcomes**

Trump to win EC: +175
Trump to win every state he won in 2016: Yes (+325)
Trump to lose every state he lost in 2016: No (+180)
Dems to sweep (Pres, House, & Senate): No (-105)
Republicans to retain Majority in Senate: Currently Locked, I got it last week for +140
Trump to win Florida (-140)
Trump to win Michigan (+200)
Trump to win Pennsylvania (+160)
Trump to win Wisconsin (+180)
John James to win Michigan Senate race (+180)

Some longer shot ones I put a small amount on just for fun:
Trump to win California: Currently Locked, I got it 2 weeks ago at +1200
Trump to win NY (+900)
O/U 209.5 House Seats won by Dems: Under (+900)
Trump to win Popular Vote: +475

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Are you sure you're not Irish? He lives in Htown and this is right up his alley.

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Haha can confirm I am not Irish, but great minds think alike!

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LOL, I was literally looking at Bovada minutes ago. Do you prefer BetOnline or something else? Bovada seems quite legit.

tip: based on the research I've done, NV is a good risk reward as are Maine and NH. Certainly riskier plays than Michigan or WI, but I'm looking at those too. NC I think is a lock to turn red as well.

I had max loss on an iron condor last CVNA earnings. Will not play again.

I use Bovada and BetOnline both, usually prefer BetOnline for props. And I've been looking at NV and NH as well haha

ClutchCityAg said:

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I use Bovada and BetOnline both, usually prefer BetOnline for props. And I've been looking at NV and NH as well haha

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I can see you and Brew betting on the coin flip of the Super Bowl.

Very interesting, thanks for sharing. Lot to learn

Engine10 said:

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cc: resident MARA gang

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How much would that damage bitcoin?

SoTXAg09 said:

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NRD09 said:

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I actually made a spreadsheet that i copy/ paste the options chain from yahoo finance and based on ask of the bought side and bid of the sold side, it tells me what a spread should cost and max % profit if both close itm. I run this out for 1,2,3,5, and 10 strike spreads, then i look at historical price action and choose the spread with the lowest strikes and highest % profit potential. I'm sure there's a smarter way to do it but i feel like my spreadsheet has found me some value. Need to get it a bit more automated.

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Every time I think I know a little about trading, I see something like this, which reminds me I certainly don't.

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Oh yeah I'm basically a pro trader. Did i mention my percent profit column is color coded using conditional formatting? Lol spreads and this spreadsheet are as advanced as i get, which is not very advanced. Really i just like using excel to parse ***** Happy to share the spreadsheet if any of y'all want to have a look

MGNI pre market

I'm a complete nerd and think of reasons just to build spreadsheets so I'd love to take a look if you're offering. I've got a big excel book that I use to track all of my stock info and I have been working on several automated tabs/calculators.

Aggiesincebirth said:

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MGNI pre market

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Bought back my shares yesterday at 9.15 that I had sold at 9.99

I have something very similar I use to look at potential versus cost for leaps and for my butterflies. Almost exactly what you are describing down to the conditional format. It has something to do with being in the O&G industry. There's something wrong with all of us.

Yesterday was a brutal day. My worst red day ever, though some of that was self-inflicted. If we open up I'm thinking of selling all Oct30, rolling or selling any Nov calls, putting alerts on my SPXU and then taking a break for the rest of the week. It was a good lesson in discipline. I'm might be a little tilted and want to make sure I'm not trading on emotion.

$9 dollars would be nice.

I'm not a trader but frequently view what y'all are up to. I put a significant order in for SQQQ to hold through election. Wish me luck.

I'm also long on MBIO, do you guys have any calls for it you 're hot for?

Prognightmare said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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I have something very similar I use to look at potential versus cost for leaps and for my butterflies. Almost exactly what you are describing down to the conditional format. It has something to do with being in the O&G industry. There's something wrong with all of us.

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That quote when through my head reading the last page.... then you posted it... then I did this with my breakfast....

I love that movie and I'm a smartass.

If anyone is looking for a gamble play. You might look at the LPSN 11/20 65c & 70c. The chart looks great and they report earnings on Thursday. The could breakout and run if that report is good, and I think it will be.

RSP715 said:

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I'm not a trader but frequently view what y'all are up to. I put a significant order in for SQQQ to hold through election. Wish me luck.

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I jump around SPXL/U and S/TQQQ quite a bit. At first, had beginner's luck, then humbled, then got the experience to move with it. I'll never touch options and am still learning, but feel I have a little better grasp.

Take TQQQ yesterday. Dropped to 127.XX, and ended, yet again, amazingly at the 50 day average on a rebound at the end of the day at 132.80. WHen I'm not slammed at work, I take the 2-3 minutes to look at the averages. More times than not, you can time entry and make a good 3-4% in a few hours and slip away. I made that play multiple times, but using 100 day and 200 day, back in september.

SQQQ may be the good play here as it closed above the 21 day. It fell this morning to touch it around 22.30. Looking to see if this is the peak of SQQQ or retesting to go higher like what we saw first two weeks of september.

Thanks. I think this election is going to be a blue wave unfortunately and contested; i.e. we're in for a storm. I think SQQQ is a good place to park money for a few weeks. It's somewhat of a hedge for me.

LLY getting hammered today after their COVID-19 testing failed. Never really saw them as a major contender for the CV-19 lottery, and feel like they are oversold. Buying Dec 150cs. Looks like you can get them between $1.25 and $1.30.

Watching this $CHGG dip - gapped down from ~$85 after fantastic earnings and increased guidance. Testing a support at $77 right now.

When we find find level I think this is a strong buy for the next quarter

Use Betonline, coming from an ex bovada user.

McInnis 03 said:

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BREwmaster said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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BREwmaster said:

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interesting bear thesis... US Treasury 10 yr along with SPX etc...

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I guess this indicates when the bonds start getting to a certain level the money leaves the equities to take the sure yield?

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I think you're spot on. HP said he's already seeing some big selling in equities. That has really given me caution on long positions.

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$TLT
Nov20 165C
10,000 contracts
$.65

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Bought these at .62, just sold for 1.03. Shoulda put a couple extra 0s on that order

This VIX position is working out to be one of my better trades I've had recently.....unfortunately.