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59 South
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In reply to leoj • 4:10p, 7/8/20
AG
I love how simple he makes it. You don't have to be glued to a screen all day either and there are so many ways to use it. Ie, you could simply sell calls at 8 extensions and sell puts when 21 is touched. I'm sure that excites gougler!
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leoj
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In reply to leoj • 4:17p, 7/8/20
AG
Speak of the devil

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59 South
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In reply to leoj • 4:18p, 7/8/20
AG
Holy hell how did I miss ddog. That is an incredible example.

The whole jist is to ride momentum until proven otherwise. He talks a lot about how people wrongly love to buy when they see something they think is on discount. In reality it's just a trend change to the downside and those Emas become massive overhead support with all the momentum down.

A good example of this is XOM. Dude in my office loaded up in early March at 50 because 'dude xom is 50 what a steal.' Nope no it was not. It was a buy when it reclaimed the 8 and held it for a few days at 36.
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Ragoo
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In reply to 59 South • 4:19p, 7/8/20
AG
59 South said:
I love how simple he makes it. You don't have to be glued to a screen all day either and there are so many ways to use it. Ie, you could simply sell calls at 8 extensions and sell puts when 21 is touched. I'm sure that excites gougler!
what time frame do you use?
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leoj
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In reply to 59 South • 4:21p, 7/8/20
AG
Yes. O'Neil, minervini, Livermore, darvas, wyckoff all preach this as well. Has really changed my thinking.
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59 South
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In reply to Ragoo • 4:27p, 7/8/20
AG
Assume you mean on the calls/puts? That's more of an art than a science and case by case based on lots of factors. On a strong name riding the 8 clean upwards, probably weeklies or the next week out on trend line extension. That's a simple selling covered call strategy. Selling puts is a bit trickier and riskier. Depends on your risk tolerance. Further out means more premium but more risk of it getting in the money...
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Fireman
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4:29p, 7/8/20
AG
Since we are talking ema, here's my completely self-serving mention that $WYNN is well below all it's averages, if you care to help out a fellow Ag.
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Ragoo
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In reply to 59 South • 4:31p, 7/8/20
AG
59 South said:
Assume you mean on the calls/puts? That's more of an art than a science and case by case based on lots of factors. On a strong name riding the 8 clean upwards, probably weeklies or the next week out on trend line extension. That's a simple selling covered call strategy. Selling puts is a bit trickier and riskier. Depends on your risk tolerance. Further out means more premium but more risk of it getting in the money...
i mean n the set up of the 8/21 moving averages. I hate vet I am doing is too correlated with the current price. Just hugs the price with little to no deviation.
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59 South
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In reply to Fireman • 4:35p, 7/8/20
AG
It looks sick!

One thing to notice too is how emas can get stacked either for or against a stock. What I mean is how are they stacked and how close or far apart are they? Huge momentum indicator.

Strong names are going to have 8 on top and then fan out down to the 200. WYNN is the inverse of that and can't get back over the 8. Momentum change directions are confirmed by emas crossing over each other.
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59 South
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In reply to Ragoo • 4:40p, 7/8/20
AG
Ah, not sure I completely follow but I mostly use them to know when to exit or when to enter... they indicate momentum change of course when they are lost or claimed and when they cross over each other that just confirms the original move. There are unlimited ways to use the ideas so hard to answer exactly.
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Ragoo
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In reply to 59 South • 4:44p, 7/8/20
AG
59 South said:
Ah, not sure I completely follow but I mostly use them to know when to exit or when to enter... they indicate momentum change of course when they are lost or claimed and when they cross over each other that just confirms the original move. There are unlimited ways to use the ideas so hard to answer exactly.
from scratch how would you set up the 8 day moving average? Simple? Exponential? Etc.

Similarly 21 day.

What time period on the chart are you using to view? 5 day? 15 day? 30 day? 1 minute? 5 minute? 4 hour?

Etc.
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Fireman
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In reply to 59 South • 4:45p, 7/8/20
AG
I'm a patient fellow, and feel pretty strong that when we get past the CV-19 delusion situation, we're all going to need at least one crazy 3-day weekend in Vegas (myself included) so I've averaged down to $79.50/per and looking forward to the break out to at least $120.

Cheers!
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59 South
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In reply to Ragoo • 4:46p, 7/8/20
AG
I think I follow now. AMD for example is at an odd spot. They're not as useful in its application because 8/21/50 are all right on top of each other meaning there is just sideways momentum. 200 is fairly far down below. I take that to imply that if it starts drifting down, the 200 is probably going to be tested. If it starts a trend up and those emas start to fan out, you can start trading that trend with more confidence.
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HoustonAg2014
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In reply to 59 South • 4:46p, 7/8/20
AG
I am having a good feeling about the way we closed on a particular Aggie CEO stock. Some reason I have a gut feeling we get to see some late 4th of July fireworks the next few days and I am a little giddy to wake up in the morning to see pre market...
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Boat Shoes
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In reply to 59 South • 4:48p, 7/8/20
AG
59 South said:
TxAG#2011 said:
Bullish euphoria amongst almost every asset class right now jeez


Maybe tech and some niche sectors like electric vehicles and cloud stuff maybe, but we aren't even close to euphoria imo. The closest thing I've seen while being really into the market is January 2018. S&P which is the biggest overall indicator of US stocks is almost 7% below ath still while going mostly sideways with lots of volatility over the past 2.5 years.

When I was in hs in late 90s several of my friends' dads quit their good jobs to start day trading. These dudes were 40 somethings who were not only total dumbasses, but also completely computer illiterate. Like index finger only typing computer illiterate but there they were giving away a pension to day trade their way to being millionaires. Now that was euphoria!


Well.... did they make it?
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leoj
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In reply to Ragoo • 4:48p, 7/8/20
AG
Ema on the daily chart
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59 South
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In reply to Fireman • 4:50p, 7/8/20
AG
Hard to argue with your logic, I personally can't wait to go back to Vegas. It will reverse at some point almost certainly and will get to that target most likely at some point. I'm just looking solely at the current trend on price.
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Ragoo
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In reply to 59 South • 4:52p, 7/8/20
AG
59 South said:
I think I follow now. AMD for example is at an odd spot. They're not as useful in its application because 8/21/50 are all right on top of each other meaning there is just sideways momentum. 200 is fairly far down below. I take that to imply that if it starts drifting down, the 200 is probably going to be tested. If it starts a trend up and those emas start to fan out, you can start trading that trend with more confidence.
and that makes sense. The larger the MA the less correlated it should be.

IE: the momentum of the stock will follow the 8EMA but a cross over of the 21EMA indicates reversal in the other direction.
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59 South
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In reply to Ragoo • 4:56p, 7/8/20
AG
Now I get it. I'm a bit slow! Yes I'm almost always only looking at daily and EMA. It can really apply to any time frame though. I sometimes like to check them out on weekly or monthly charts. SMA is ok too and usually close to the same. I believe Redler discusses this in his ebook. It is literally a half hour read max if I remember correctly.

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59 South
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In reply to Boat Shoes • 4:58p, 7/8/20
AG
I'll let you figure that one out... let's just say at least most of them had school teacher wives with steady jobs and they didn't lose their houses.
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TecRecAg
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4:59p, 7/8/20
AG
Looked at an example from one my current positions with the 8/21 EMA and literally said holy S out loud. This is like a mental breakthrough for me!

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59 South
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 5:02p, 7/8/20
AG
Don't you dare jinx this one cause it could still fail!

Ps: I'm working on an ensemble of gifs and YouTube videos that involve America tributes, the war hymn and spiking footballs...

ETA go look at those emas on this one and how they are set up with a fan starting mid June... then go back and look at the last time they started looking like that with that set up.
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59 South
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In reply to TecRecAg • 5:08p, 7/8/20
AG
When the simplicity finally clicks, it's pretty crazy huh?

When I see a chart like that, that dumb song from the mid 90s pops in my head on repeat...

Come on, ride the train, hey, ride it, choo choo!
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Touchless
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In reply to 59 South • 5:14p, 7/8/20
AG
59 South said:
Don't you dare jinx this one cause it could still fail!

Ps: I'm working on an ensemble of gifs and YouTube videos that involve America tributes, the war hymn and spiking footballs...
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Charismatic Megafauna
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5:14p, 7/8/20
AG
you guys just blew my mind. Thanks for sharing all the knowledge. New tool in the quiver.
Look at CRWD over the last year with those 8 and 21 day lines overlaid...incredible!
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59 South
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 5:26p, 7/8/20
AG
Beautiful eh?

Look at JD. Damn I'm gonna talk myself out of selling if it gets to 68-70 in the next couple days now...
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TriumphForks
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5:41p, 7/8/20
AG
When looking at charts do you guys prefer to use a linear or logarithmic scale? As of late, logarithmic has made more sense to me since it better visualizes changes in percentages rather than raw number of dollars (which can skew the data if a stock has made significant gains or losses). Was wondering if there is a general preference or best practice when it comes to charting.
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TheCellarDoor
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7:19p, 7/8/20
AG
What's a good charting app for iPhone?
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Grown Pear
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In reply to 59 South • 7:51p, 7/8/20
AG
59 I have to thank you so much for this.

I jumped in JD calls Monday sadly after it shot up. I got some in like 1.20 (way above your entry point). Then later it started dropping I think I got more at 1 something. Then yesterday loaded up more at like .67 twice.

So I was at an average cost of 1.00-1.05'ish with 35 total contracts. End of day yesterday down about $1500, today's rocket ship got me so pumped. I had a 12 hour round trip drive into Louisiana and back. I'm seeing the continuous climb in share price and it makes my drive so fun. On I-10 trying to put in a limit sell order to get out half at 2.10 so I'd be net free the other half. It's trading at like 1.80 at the time. I go through a patch with little cell coverage and my app stops working and never submits my limit order. I didn't realize that.

Fast forward another hour or so and I see JD climbing up in the high 65's so I check my order status and it's empty bc it never finalized! I got to put in another sell order and decide to dump all 35 contracts at 2.25!

So lucky. What an absolute turnaround today. I have 59 South to thanks as I was driving I-10 East
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fightintxag13
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 8:05p, 7/8/20
AG
NRD09 said:
you guys just blew my mind. Thanks for sharing all the knowledge. New tool in the quiver.
Look at CRWD over the last year with those 8 and 21 day lines overlaid...incredible!
I'm right there with you! I found several in the last 2 months that have had great entries on bounces off the 21 ema. TMUS, JD, NVDA, REGN, NET just to name a few.
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gougler08
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8:08p, 7/8/20
AG
CYBR bounced for right off the 200 EMA today and is way above the 8/21, should be a good sign for some further momentum / maybe even a run to fill that gap at 137
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BB675
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8:18p, 7/8/20
AG
I am getting crushed on my bank play right now (FHN, formerly IBKC). Any light at the end of the tunnel for banks?
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AgShaun00
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In reply to BB675 • 8:21p, 7/8/20
AG
BB675 said:
I am getting crushed on my bank play right now (FHN, formerly IBKC). Any light at the end of the tunnel for banks?
Probably if another stimulus is passed
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Cartographer
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In reply to 59 South • 8:37p, 7/8/20
Thanks to you and leoj!

I have the benefit of doing computer work and so I stare all day. I play breakouts over 21/200 for the most part.

I find 5 minute charts respect the 21 very well and it's been good for my day trading.

Your explanations make a ton of sense and I'm going to try it out now in my chart study.

Thanks again guys. This place is the best.
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cgh1999
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In reply to BB675 • 8:38p, 7/8/20
AG
BB675 said:
I am getting crushed on my bank play right now (FHN, formerly IBKC). Any light at the end of the tunnel for banks?

We need interest rates to go up...but at this point just the idea that it could happen would be great!
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