Aggies75455 said:

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For those on the fence about Zest wanting in or wanting to add, Monday morning may be the day to do so. Earnings announcement coming and people are hearing the same that I've been hearing which is that a deal with WMT may be announced Monday or at some point next week. If we're not halted Monday morning I would get in now if you were waiting for a dip.

GLTA

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I think this makes sense on how the stock price held up too this past week after the big drop. Somebody knows something

tam2002 said:

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Aggies75455 said:

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For those on the fence about Zest wanting in or wanting to add, Monday morning may be the day to do so. Earnings announcement coming and people are hearing the same that I've been hearing which is that a deal with WMT may be announced Monday or at some point next week. If we're not halted Monday morning I would get in now if you were waiting for a dip.

GLTA

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I think this makes sense on how the stock price held up too this past week after the big drop. Somebody knows something

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Friday's are usually higher volume. This last Friday was the lowest volume day in the last month and the price still went up .38 on the day. We had almost no selling.

a bearish perspective, counter to Mr. Walrus...he has a fantastic video on his page too.

Nice! thanks for asking him! I did notice some in the comments of Warlus's count mention the a) and c) are much too close together. Insinuating that the big drop Thursday is a sign of things to come (basically we should have another leg down before we rocket).

Quad witching is Friday and VXX was showing a bull flag this past Friday afternoon, could get wild this week!

I want to get back into VXX. Should have at close but think we go up first.

Nm

Aggies75455 said:

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tam2002 said:

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Aggies75455 said:

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For those on the fence about Zest wanting in or wanting to add, Monday morning may be the day to do so. Earnings announcement coming and people are hearing the same that I've been hearing which is that a deal with WMT may be announced Monday or at some point next week. If we're not halted Monday morning I would get in now if you were waiting for a dip.

GLTA

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I think this makes sense on how the stock price held up too this past week after the big drop. Somebody knows something

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Friday's are usually higher volume. This last Friday was the lowest volume day in the last month and the price still went up .38 on the day. We had almost no selling.

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?? I don't follow the last statement. There literally cannot be buying without some else selling. They are two sides of the same coin.

I see the same comments when large options transactions are made. When some entity buys 10,000 options, another entity sold 10,000 options. And unless you have simultaneously tracked open interest, you don't know if that action is being driven by someone opening a position or closing a position.

Definitely right that doubling is less possible as the value increases but just this year we have seen intraday movements of 47 to 77 and 57 to 85. 2008 saw two closes at 80 I believe but it was over a longer dated period, and the 2018 ETN wipeout is well known. I doubt anyone will expect to see us above 100, if so I'll shift my investments into ammo and canned food.

Agreed betting on a drop in vol can be profitable, but its a different animal than having a clear underlying and i've watched too many new traders get wiped out on vol as it is so i'm rarely comfortable recommending it until there is a bit of understanding.

Nvmnd

So this isn't a political viral post, just an observation. My county, Galveston county, reported more covid cases yesterday than any other day besides one outlier in the past where an entire nursing home was diagnosed.

Our trend is increasing rapidly.

I think we will avoid the shutdowns at all cost, but I could see some pinching occurring again. The fear headlines are likely to come strong this week with numbers they can use to "back them up".

Be prepared in your plays if this thing decides to do a March flush again.

McInnis 03 said:

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So this isn't a political viral post, just an observation. My county, Galveston county, reported more covid cases yesterday than any other day besides one outlier in the past where an entire nursing home was diagnosed.

Our trend is increasing rapidly.

I think we will avoid the shutdowns at all cost, but I could see some pinching occurring again. The fear headlines are likely to come strong this week with numbers they can use to "back them up".

Be prepared in your plays if this thing decides to do a March flush again.

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Same thing in Dallas. Lots of daily records being broken. I have a feeling we won't ever go back to lockdown but there may be the strict business operating rules come back. I think they'll get tougher on masks and 6foot rule too. Most of the people I see or have completely abandoned that. A little personal responsibility and we could operate pretty dang normally but people can't muster that up.

Deaths are a trailing indicator, I think. First you have new cases, then you have increased hospitalizations, and then deaths come after. We are seeing #1 and #2. I think the average time from onset to death is somewhere around 3-4 weeks. I don't think the death tolls will be as bad given Riley's post on getting better at treating. I would not be surprised to see an uptick. This will be the week to start seeing protest based surges.

I also agree with McInnis that we won't shutdown again under any circumstance. There could be a voluntary suppression of demand. I would also be surprised to see a March like dump. I think a slow grind down into late Q3 is more likely. If we go this path, the bottom will be around the availability announcement for a vaccine.

khaos288 said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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So this isn't a political viral post, just an observation. My county, Galveston county, reported more covid cases yesterday than any other day besides one outlier in the past where an entire nursing home was diagnosed.

Our trend is increasing rapidly.

I think we will avoid the shutdowns at all cost, but I could see some pinching occurring again. The fear headlines are likely to come strong this week with numbers they can use to "back them up".

Be prepared in your plays if this thing decides to do a March flush again.

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Same thing in Dallas. Lots of daily records being broken. I have a feeling we won't ever go back to lockdown but there may be the strict business operating rules come back. I think they'll get tougher on masks and 6foot rule too. Most of the people I see or have completely abandoned that. A little personal responsibility and we could operate pretty dang normally but people can't muster that up.

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This is why I'm not really going anywhere. I can't count on the people around me to behave.

Why do you think that? There are tons of companies chasing and some will enter stage 3 trials. I'm not an expert in this. It seems like it will happen, just maybe not immediately.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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khaos288 said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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So this isn't a political viral post, just an observation. My county, Galveston county, reported more covid cases yesterday than any other day besides one outlier in the past where an entire nursing home was diagnosed.

Our trend is increasing rapidly.

I think we will avoid the shutdowns at all cost, but I could see some pinching occurring again. The fear headlines are likely to come strong this week with numbers they can use to "back them up".

Be prepared in your plays if this thing decides to do a March flush again.

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Same thing in Dallas. Lots of daily records being broken. I have a feeling we won't ever go back to lockdown but there may be the strict business operating rules come back. I think they'll get tougher on masks and 6foot rule too. Most of the people I see or have completely abandoned that. A little personal responsibility and we could operate pretty dang normally but people can't muster that up.

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This is why I'm not really going anywhere. I can't count on the people around me to behave.

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Yep. I've been to the golf course with my walking cart, and literally only been inside two other places. One they had perfect mask/distance/sanitizer etiquette, and the other I saw only two people come close to me.

For the markets sake, I've heard mixed reviews. Some places are busier than ever (stim checks maybe?) and others have said they're a ghost town still. As long as the next set of measures aren't crazy prohibitive, there's no way we see a March dip. I think.

Ragoo said:

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I am fairly confident we can rule a vaccine out.

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Care to expand on this?

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Why do you think that? There are tons of companies chasing and some will enter stage 3 trials. I'm not an expert in this. It seems like it will happen, just maybe not immediately.

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just a gut feeling. As time goes on and we get further away from the initial onset we get closer to no longer needing a vaccine. This isn't like the flu where a new strain comes along every year. We are talking about a lot of money in R&D for a one shot revenue model. I just think once again money will go elsewhere.

Agree with the above points. I'm in CRE and the trickle down effects to non payment of rent, particularly in retail, have been persistent for the last two months. Hotels are not surprisingly sucking wind. I don't think we lock down again, but these trends just drag out suppressed consumer confidence. Taken together with the Memorial Day pop it's making me pessimistic about consumption roaring back in the fall. It'll be informative how things shake out in the weeks after July 4th I guess.

tam2002 said:

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Ragoo said:

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I am fairly confident we can rule a vaccine out.

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Care to expand on this?

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just my intuition. I would love to be wrong but I would not base any type of economic decisions or anything else on the future potential of one. Live like there won't be, however you see fit.

Ragoo said:

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tam2002 said:

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Ragoo said:

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I am fairly confident we can rule a vaccine out.

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Care to expand on this?

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just my intuition. I would love to be wrong but I would not base any type of economic decisions or anything else on the future potential of one. Live like there won't be, however you see fit.

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I'm leaning your way on this one. The only way the money works out is in the long run you can show your the first lab to get there, just to prove that point. There have been other similar viruses, so having a win like that on the books could net research funds in the future. Just a thought.

Ragoo said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Why do you think that? There are tons of companies chasing and some will enter stage 3 trials. I'm not an expert in this. It seems like it will happen, just maybe not immediately.

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just a gut feeling. As time goes on and we get further away from the initial onset we get closer to no longer needing a vaccine. This isn't like the flu where a new strain comes along every year. We are talking about a lot of money in R&D for a one shot revenue model. I just think once again money will go elsewhere.

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People are still dying from H1N1 - a friend's fiance died of it within the last 2 years. A flu shot has H1N1 in it (my pharmacist told me), and I've heard two places that the Spanish flu vaccine from 1918 is in the flu shot too.

I'm confident a vaccine will be needed.

I doubt we get a March dip, but it does look like it wants to back test 270's or 280's (certainly I could be wrong though).

As for a vaccine, millions will and are being saved by other measures. Sure in the long run maybe one will be developed. As the doc (Riley) said, he's finding that treating the whole patient (protecting organs first) is having great results. We'd all do good too to take our vitamins, zinc, vitamin C, etc., but still get outside and get a work out in!

sorry now I'm starting to sound like a mom!

Maybe even 230s

Fitch said:

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Agree with the above points. I'm in CRE and the trickle down effects to non payment of rent, particularly in retail, have been persistent for the last two months. Hotels are not surprisingly sucking wind. I don't think we lock down again, but these trends just drag out suppressed consumer confidence. Taken together with the Memorial Day pop it's making me pessimistic about consumption roaring back in the fall. It'll be informative how things shake out in the weeks after July 4th I guess.

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This hasn't hit large chunks of the economy yet. But, anecdotally, our firm went from projected best year ever with record work backlog, to beginning layoffs bc 70% of our backlog has now evaporated as virtually everyone has eliminated capital spending for 2020. I know our competitors have already been doing steady layoffs and more are coming bc their backlog is also gone.

When corporations and businesses aren't spending capital now to get project engineering started, it means in the coming months/years, there's not going to be any project construction. And engineering fees vary, but typically range from 2-10% of TIC. So, we had billions of dollars in backlog wiped out. That translates to hundreds of billions, if not close to a trillion dollars in future projects wiped out.

And for reference, I'm not intending to be dismissive of the impacts to anyone's jobs or livelihood, but the folks being laid off across the board in our industry are high paying white collar jobs, engineers, procurement specialists, project managers, etc.

I think there's little doubt we haven't yet felt the ramifications of the shutdown. Hell, the live music industry is a $500b+ industry and it is basically in a holding pattern until 2021.

But the question is are we going to feel those ramifications in the market before the election. No matter your opinion on Trump, I think most understand that he very much likes to use the economy and stock market as a display of doing a good job.

He is going to do everything in his power for things to look good come November, and it's tough to bet firmly against that no matter your opinion on the overall stability.

I hear it and see it too. All of my projects design consultants are gearing down or planning for a drought as development pipelines wind down or go on ice indefinitely. We've laid up three projects in the last four months, two basically permanently and one as a product of the leasing environment. Still hoping to break ground this year on the latter, but we shall see.

Fitch said:

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I hear it and see it too. All of my projects design consultants are gearing down or planning for a drought as development pipelines wind down or go on ice indefinitely. We've laid up three projects in the last four months, two basically permanently and one as a product of the leasing environment. Still hoping to break ground this year on the latter, but we shall see.

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Are you in retail, office or industrial?

I'm on the office/industrial side of CRE. Industrial is weathering the storm well but office is very slow and cautious.