well we aren't in a recession yet. So.claym711 said:
Rental prices will not go up during a recession, especially this one.
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You sure about that? I'd say 2/3 to 3/4 of my clients (and almost all of my first time home buyers) don't put down 20%. People need a place to live, whether that's renting or buying. If they can't buy, that puts more demand on rentals, and the supply won't be going up. Some of my investor friends are already seeing this happenpeople that might have been on the cusp of buying are now deciding to (or being forced to) rent for another year instead.
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Ragoo said:well we aren't in a recession yet. So.claym711 said:
Rental prices will not go up during a recession, especially this one.
We could be, just won't know for two quarters.
Actually, it's driven by the State. I know of several appraisal districts that only raise taxes in various school districts because the State says if they do not bring the value up to the "appropriate" value, then the school districts get punished in the form of State allotments being too low.IrishTxAggie said:
Some places, yes. Other places, no. CADs have the ability and are incentivized to artificially inflate the market. How many people on those appraisal district threads on the RE board say stuff like "if they'll pay me that for my house, I'll leave right now"?
so until we know let's hold off on defining something that isn't.HYC_AG said:Ragoo said:well we aren't in a recession yet. So.claym711 said:
Rental prices will not go up during a recession, especially this one.
We could be, just won't know for two quarters.
We are in a recession.
Q1 and Q2 may recess, but Q3 will probably be better than Q2. And so forth.claym711 said:
We are in a recession.
Ragoo said:Q1 and Q2 may recess, but Q3 will probably be better than Q2. And so forth.claym711 said:
We are in a recession.
So you agree we are in a recession? I'm confused. Also, identifying something as it's happening is much more valuable to an investing board than waiting to quarters to say "yup, we are in a recession".
Bold claim on Q3 and Q4 by the way.
Don't worry we're all about to find out if a vshape recovery is really in the cards or ... not.
recession has a very specific definition and is trailing in nature. Everyone understands where we are today. What we don't know and can only speculate is if the trend continues down or if this is just a step change for future growth. My guess is the latter and the "recession" is a short lived blip due to a global health issue and not a systematic financial problem.HYC_AG said:Ragoo said:Q1 and Q2 may recess, but Q3 will probably be better than Q2. And so forth.claym711 said:
We are in a recession.
So you agree we are in a recession? I'm confused. Also, identifying something as it's happening is much more valuable to an investing board than waiting to quarters to say "yup, we are in a recession".
Bold claim on Q3 and Q4 by the way.
My opinion. Yours may be different.
Fair enough!
Aggie09Derek said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-12/oil-price-war-ends-with-historic-opec-deal-to-cut-production?sref=StzN0HjU&utm_content=business&utm_source=facebook&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social
Can't get past the paywall and can you summarize?
Quote:
OPEC+ will cut 9.7 million barrels a day -- just below the initial proposal of 10 million. The U.S., Brazil and Canada will contribute another 3.7 million barrels as their production declines. OPEC officials were still waiting to hear more from Group of 20 members -- though it's not clear if those numbers will represent real cuts or just production idled because of market forces.
Mexico appeared to have won a diplomatic victory as it will only be required to cut 100,000 barrels -- less than its pro-rated share.
Aggie09Derek said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-12/oil-price-war-ends-with-historic-opec-deal-to-cut-production?sref=StzN0HjU&utm_content=business&utm_source=facebook&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social
Big news. I sold half my VLO,MRO,XOM and kept RIG shares. I bought all back that I sold Thursday morning back towards the end of the day at a discount. I was hoping for good oil news this weekend.
My mom owned a 30+ agent real estate company in the 80s bust in South Texas. She told me the stories about people writing checks to give the bank the keys to their house.....but she also said rents went up during that time.Red Pear Realty said:
You sure about that? I'd say 2/3 to 3/4 of my clients (and almost all of my first time home buyers) don't put down 20%. People need a place to live, whether that's renting or buying. If they can't buy, that puts more demand on rentals, and the supply won't be going up. Some of my investor friends are already seeing this happenpeople that might have been on the cusp of buying are now deciding to (or being forced to) rent for another year instead.
IrishTxAggie said:Quote:
OPEC+ will cut 9.7 million barrels a day -- just below the initial proposal of 10 million. The U.S., Brazil and Canada will contribute another 3.7 million barrels as their production declines. OPEC officials were still waiting to hear more from Group of 20 members -- though it's not clear if those numbers will represent real cuts or just production idled because of market forces.
Mexico appeared to have won a diplomatic victory as it will only be required to cut 100,000 barrels -- less than its pro-rated share.
I still don't think it's enough.
IrishTxAggie said:Quote:
OPEC+ will cut 9.7 million barrels a day -- just below the initial proposal of 10 million. The U.S., Brazil and Canada will contribute another 3.7 million barrels as their production declines. OPEC officials were still waiting to hear more from Group of 20 members -- though it's not clear if those numbers will represent real cuts or just production idled because of market forces.
Mexico appeared to have won a diplomatic victory as it will only be required to cut 100,000 barrels -- less than its pro-rated share.
All there **** is getting stolen anyways
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
Oh hell no it's not. World wide demand declined by >20M a day according to CNBC. Now they can still kill the shale producers and not undervalue their own product
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
When futures open, how much up or down are we expecting?
iluvpoker said:
When futures open, how much up or down are we expecting?
I have been expecting a massive 1,000 point decrease for the last 4 days and have been wrong every time, but I don't think going long right now is a good decision.
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
This is extremely close to my thinking as well OverseasAg... almost like you wrote it for me. so thank you lol
One thing I would add to your points that I've started doing while things are down is shifting some money out of certain ETFs and into others that will track very similarly to whatever index/asset class I'm wanting exposure to. This allows me to capture losses (similar to tax-loss harvesting strategy) and still be exposed to the market (ie not timing things or possibly missing a rally). Gotta be careful with the investments/ETFs you trade into or out of to avoid the wash-sale rule of "substantially identical". But under current IRS tax laws and guidelines this is pretty easily avoidable.
One thing I would add to your points that I've started doing while things are down is shifting some money out of certain ETFs and into others that will track very similarly to whatever index/asset class I'm wanting exposure to. This allows me to capture losses (similar to tax-loss harvesting strategy) and still be exposed to the market (ie not timing things or possibly missing a rally). Gotta be careful with the investments/ETFs you trade into or out of to avoid the wash-sale rule of "substantially identical". But under current IRS tax laws and guidelines this is pretty easily avoidable.
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
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I think you're worrying way too much about wash sale. You can rebuy a stock all you want after selling it at a loss, you just can't deduct the loss on your taxes
NRD09 said:
I think you're worrying way too much about wash sale. You can rebuy a stock all you want after selling it at a loss, you just can't deduct the loss on your taxes
The whole point (for me) is in order to offset gains and/or deduct for tax purposes.
I don't like the sound that of that.
RSP715 said:
I don't like the sound that of that.
I'm with you...
The don is crazy if he thinks things are opening up in May. Very soft open maybe and it's not his call anyway. It's state and local.
Futures open shortly...lets see what they think. I'm thinking we open tomorrow red
RSP715 said:
The don is crazy if he thinks things are opening up in May. Very soft open maybe and it's not his call anyway. It's state and local.
I'll be surprised if we aren't doing something in early May in Texas. This has lasted long enough for the absolute non issue it's been here
I agree that some states probably need longer, but the overwhelming majority of the country is fine and needs to get back to work
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