Armyof1975 said:

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If they didn't ban short selling during the 2008 crisis, I would find it hard to believe they would do it now.

Plus, as others have pointed out, studies have shown it has next to no effect every time it has been tried.

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When it comes to politics in D.C., studies, facts, science, etc don't matter.

Beyond impacting people's confidence negatively, what would it even solve? We aren't going down because of short selling, we're going to go down because the unemployment numbers on Thursday and then a month from now are going to be worse than anyone thinks probably.

I dont expect a V shape recovery necessarily, but I do think we see some huge swings up as well as some huge swings down over the next several months, and relatively speaking we are near the bottom. However we may find ourselves here (at the bottom) a couple more times over the next couple weeks, given the volatile state things are in right now. Politically, globally, economically, etc.

The feel (to some) is it should be a bull market, but the unemployment figures and the media will show bear markets. So lots of battling to be done between the two I think and if anyone has bought in the last week they can still take short positions likely.

And regardless, once stimulus passes there should be a big spike, so tomorrow should be a big buy day I would think. Even if it's only to sell on Tuesday/Wednesday. Just my thoughts though.

Welp. 1998 this is not.

Currently have uvxy call (this week $100) and a tsla put (this week 340)

Looking for break of trend and oil/cruise ships/airplanes stabilizing before looking for bullish bounce play they have been the market leader until now and then getting strength to the upside is key, there have been hints at the end of last week. Ideally, this trend line gets touched or broken by $spy and we see some panic we can take long.

To clarify I wasn't endorsing a ban just replying to the other poster that it did happen in 2008.

Article on WSJ shows S&P500 bottom estimates: Credit Suisse predicting 2200, GS predicting 2000, and BoA predicting 1800.

We are at 2190 now, so it's defitinitely possible for things to drop another 190 tomorrow (hitting GS's estimate) assuming the stimulus bill doesn't pass. I am not so sure we stay there long though is all I'm saying given some postive news comes out in the next week or so (Russia and stimulus). Definitely planning for the long recovery though myself, just pointing out that things won't stay down much lower than this.


The Worst of the Selloff Isn't Here Yet, Banks and Investors Warn https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-worst-of-the-global-selloff-isnt-here-yet-banks-and-investors-warn-11584877018

iluvpoker said:

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AggieKeith15 said:

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Down big at open then a giant rally when stimulus passes tomorrow, right?

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Everything we are seeing is that the democrats have gained the upper hand on the section of this bill pertaining to the wall st bailout. So I caution everyone on thinking you're getting a bargain in airlines, oil, travel, etc. The terms of getting that money look like they are going to be less favorable than the market expects.

And to those expecting a V-shaped recovery, you're going to be disappointed. This is a much bigger problem than you're admitting. The democrats will take advantage of this and try to win the election, which means a lower stock market around Halloween than what you guys are thinking.

A lot of people who had a lot of dry powder 3 weeks ago are bleeding from the cuts they have taken by trying to catch the falling knives everyday this month.

Let the market bottom, whether that is 19,000 or 9,000 or another level. There will be plenty of time to buy and plenty of profit to be made after this market bottoms!

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Basically, buy puts.

Quote:

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I doubt hotels and cruise lines will even get bailouts. If they do, forget about the taxpayers taking care of stockholders and bondholders. It will only be a restructuring and keeping jobs.

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At the very least these industries will get massive interest free gov't loans.

A real market question for tomorrow. I purchased SPY190 3/25 puts on Friday, entered order to sell half of them if/when they double and go net free. Do you leave that sale order in place, or cancel it and roll the dice? I don't have access to off hours trading, nor the ability to sit in front of the screen all day watching. TIA.

TXAG14 said:

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Well that will make for an interesting first hour

Thanks.

gougler08 said:

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TXAG14 said:

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Well that will make for an interesting first hour

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Especially if we open with a circuit breaker...

Spy 180?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html

khaos288 said:

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WestTexAg12 said:

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khaos288 said:

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WestTexAg12 said:

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Anybody use Manic Trading and pay for Premium?

Based on their performance, I may be tempted to jump on it for a month just to play this volatility

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They've been good for me this year, even through the corona stuff. Let me know if you join and I can get a referral bonus.

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I'm joining Manic

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You'll like it. Goog and tsla calls paid pretty well today. We're holding an AMD strangle that expires next week.

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Ignore that emoticon, that was by accident.

I haven't really liked Manic trading all that much. I'm sure it has worked for some people, but it seems to be hit or miss to me.

They mainly do way out of the money options that expire weekly. Obviously these can pay off or go to zero quickly.

In a market like what we have now things just move too fast. You have to be watching it all day or you will miss your opportunity. Definitely put sell orders in place to sell as they go up.

The problem that I have had with them is that when things are running good you can't get in for the same premium that they paid. Also, they may have 4 plays that fail, but it's the 5th one that hits a HR and pays off. If you miss out on that 5th one then you are really in the hole. I have just found it hard to follow what they are doing with the speed that this market is moving at.

On top of that they really aren't providing a system that will teach you how to play the market. There are others out there that provide much more support and materials.

gougler08 said:

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TXAG14 said:

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Well that will make for an interesting first hour

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My blood pressure can't take much more of this

leoj said:

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Low came in late November, rallied, and then true bottom in March.

TXAG14 said:

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NOT SO FAST...

Prognightmare said:

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SPY 190p ?

That's another 15% drop from where it closed Friday by close of business Wednesday, correct?

If so, I'd sell at the open if I'm up because they're going to strip premium out of those quickly with any rebound from a down open.

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That would make the overall drop from the high of 337 to 190ish area around 45%. The 2008 drop from high to low was 50ish % (from memory last I looked). Even if we hit 200, I think we'd be damn close to bottom.

Oil has also basically bottomed - that could also be a good indicator.

TV Casualty said:

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khaos288 said:

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WestTexAg12 said:

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khaos288 said:

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WestTexAg12 said:

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Anybody use Manic Trading and pay for Premium?

Based on their performance, I may be tempted to jump on it for a month just to play this volatility

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They've been good for me this year, even through the corona stuff. Let me know if you join and I can get a referral bonus.

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I'm joining Manic

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You'll like it. Goog and tsla calls paid pretty well today. We're holding an AMD strangle that expires next week.

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Ignore that emoticon, that was by accident.

I haven't really liked Manic trading all that much. I'm sure it has worked for some people, but it seems to be hit or miss to me.

They mainly do way out of the money options that expire weekly. Obviously these can pay off or go to zero quickly.

In a market like what we have now things just move too fast. You have to be watching it all day or you will miss your opportunity. Definitely put sell orders in place to sell as they go up.

The problem that I have had with them is that when things are running good you can't get in for the same premium that they paid. Also, they may have 4 plays that fail, but it's the 5th one that hits a HR and pays off. If you miss out on that 5th one then you are really in the hole. I have just found it hard to follow what they are doing with the speed that this market is moving at.

On top of that they really aren't providing a system that will teach you how to play the market. There are others out there that provide much more support and materials.

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Sounds like a total mismatch for what you're looking for. Most of these services are quick movers and you have to be watching constantly. Hell I switched to manic bc elite traders was way worse. He'd buy stuff near the money and if you didn't have the screen open to that stock, you'd already be off 25%. I haven't had that problem with manic.

If you're looking to learn how to trade, I wouldn't follow any of the picking services. That's just not what they're focused on.

It did take me awhile to get used to the losers losing but the winners making up for it. That took me by surprise the first few trades.

Spy Strangles around these votes could be nice

Yeah, that's probably right. It just seems like with manic that when they hit the one that really pays off is right when I'm in a meeting or something.

When the markets were rolling back in December they were really paying off. Since then I just seem to always miss the plays that win.

TV Casualty said:

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Yeah, that's probably right. It just seems like with manic that when they hit the one that really pays off is right when I'm in a meeting or something.

When the markets were rolling back in December they were really paying off. Since then I just seem to always miss the plays that win.

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Yeah that would be very disheartening. If you missed a handful of winners in a row, that'd be a lot of red in the face.