Stock Markets
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Last: 27 min ago by EliteZags
Excellent thread everyone, thank you oldarmy for starting it! I read it everyday and have learned some new trading ideas from you all.
3rd day of breakout on CLF up over $2 from breaking resistance. That's how you want a stock to respond to breaking resistance - up 30% in 3 days.
Post 19k has been right on pace to 19150-19250 expected "flash" move.
Post 19k has been right on pace to 19150-19250 expected "flash" move.
Intelesat (I) up over another 10%.
oa1,oldarmy1 said:
3rd day of breakout on CLF up over $2 from breaking resistance. That's how you want a stock to respond to breaking resistance - up 30% in 3 days.
Post 19k has been right on pace to 19150-19250 expected "flash" move.
Nice call, I'm thinking I can get in at 7.30, it looks like it hangs around below the 50DMA for a bit periodically.
But maybe the paradigms shifted on 11/9. Trumps infrastructure plans may help these guys quiet a bit.
CLF should come back on a wave to test $8. I locked in some covered calls on that posted move.
Bought CLF at 9.05 , might have been late , hoping it will go up more
Now that it broke out of that long sideways action I wouldn't count on a return to the lower 50DMA. Not saying it won't but I would look to be entering (if this is a stock you were looking to be in) as it approaches $8. If it is close to $8 then a "flash move" under $8 would be the sweet spot for traders. $7.85-$7.90.VitruvianAg said:oa1,oldarmy1 said:
3rd day of breakout on CLF up over $2 from breaking resistance. That's how you want a stock to respond to breaking resistance - up 30% in 3 days.
Post 19k has been right on pace to 19150-19250 expected "flash" move.
Nice call, I'm thinking I can get in at 7.30, it looks like it hangs around below the 50DMA for a bit periodically.
But maybe the paradigms shifted on 11/9. Trumps infrastructure plans may help these guys quiet a bit.
Post any energy laggers its open season on spiking oil prices.
Joseph, our SN up nearly a buck early.
Joseph, our SN up nearly a buck early.
And with the OPEC deal you can scratch the CLF retracement, as with all energy shares.
On another note with the Intelesat breakout move yielding a solid 100% gain for the planted stock that leaves only 1 of 4 selected speculative entries for the year yet to break out and run, CIE. With the OPEC news and oil pushing upwards I'm watching for that initial breakout above $1.35. As posted, have traded off each wave test at $1.30 with swing trade accumulation below $1. I am not selling any or using any covered calls at this point. It hasn't broken out but its in the right sector.
Editing because as I typed the bid went from $1.26 x $1.30 to a bid now of $1.30 x $1.45. WOOT!
On another note with the Intelesat breakout move yielding a solid 100% gain for the planted stock that leaves only 1 of 4 selected speculative entries for the year yet to break out and run, CIE. With the OPEC news and oil pushing upwards I'm watching for that initial breakout above $1.35. As posted, have traded off each wave test at $1.30 with swing trade accumulation below $1. I am not selling any or using any covered calls at this point. It hasn't broken out but its in the right sector.
Editing because as I typed the bid went from $1.26 x $1.30 to a bid now of $1.30 x $1.45. WOOT!
Yeah, I'm totally fine with losing my covered call shares if it means the rest of my oil stocks are going through the roof. Two stocks already up 20% today.oldarmy1 said:
Post any energy laggers its open season on spiking oil prices.
Joseph, our SN up nearly a buck early.
APA Break out. $70 calls gaining action on multiple services out to December 16th.
CIE flashed above resistance to hit $1.41 and is currently right at the $1.35 major resistance. Thing is this move has had zero volume so if volume comes in then it will break free finally. A close above $1.35 would be as close to a sure trade as exists on these small stocks.
CIE flashed above resistance to hit $1.41 and is currently right at the $1.35 major resistance. Thing is this move has had zero volume so if volume comes in then it will break free finally. A close above $1.35 would be as close to a sure trade as exists on these small stocks.
Note: Buy and hold investor here
This feels like a huge overreaction to a relatively small bbls decision. Likely the market movement is related more to the sheer fact that OPEC did something. Anybody locking in gains in hopes of picking up the stocks cheaper later or are you expecting the short interest to cover and keep going up?
This feels like a huge overreaction to a relatively small bbls decision. Likely the market movement is related more to the sheer fact that OPEC did something. Anybody locking in gains in hopes of picking up the stocks cheaper later or are you expecting the short interest to cover and keep going up?
set in my trailing stops on all my long term (1yr+) to lock 30-35% in.
CIE trying the breakout again. $1.38 x $1.41
That $1.40 area resistance is no joke...SDRL is playing nice after the 200 SMA breakoldarmy1 said:
CIE trying the breakout again. $1.38 x $1.41
Appreciate the breakout alert on SDRLaggiehunter3 said:That $1.40 area resistance is no joke...SDRL is playing nice after the 200 SMA breakoldarmy1 said:
CIE trying the breakout again. $1.38 x $1.41
Also, notice how $1.35 became support intraday thus far on CIE. That is called a signal load up move.
Not sure how many of you are following oil stocks lately, but CRC went up 45% yesterday and is up another 12% today.
I am trying to beef up my presence in healthcare and bought United Health (UNH) awhile back. It has broken out to a new high and I like stocks going up.
It looks like Trump may allow purchases of drugs from other countries to contain healthcare costs. Good for consumers and health insurance companies but bad for drug companies.
It looks like Trump may allow purchases of drugs from other countries to contain healthcare costs. Good for consumers and health insurance companies but bad for drug companies.
What Drug companies are out of state?
TheVarian said:
What Drug companies are out of state?
I don't understand your question. But if American companies are allowed to import drugs from other countries at the significant price savings over what they are currently sold here, that should translate into cost health cost reductions here but also lower average drug pricing for the pharmaceutical industry.
This issue has nothing to do with state lines.
For the traders our there. Here is one of my favorite tactics on small caps like CIE. Let's say you bought 50k shares of CIE anytime between the below $1 major long term support and the $1.30 initial resistance point. The stock is showing signs of a breakout but hasn't been able to bust out the $1.40 major resistance yet.
Now if it does then any strategy I outline following has to be applied with eyes wide open because you WILL have the shares called out. The January 16th $1.50 options are trading $0.20 x $0.30. You sell a covered call at the bid (for instant fill) then you're called out net price would be $1.70 ($1.50/share paid when called out PLUS the $0.20/share paid to you for the covered call).
This is exactly what I have done the previous two times the stock hit near this $1.40 resistance. If my average buy price is $1.02 (which it is) then it would have reduced those shares now by 40 cents, meaning my shares held are at a net cost of $0.62. If the shares had broken out on either of those last two times then I would have been called out, so I only apply this strategy to 50% of my holdings. That means my actual net shares is $0.82, but you see how it works.
When I was building capital wealth I would sell covered calls against 75% of my holdings because my ultimate goal back then was to increase capital. Now it's never more than 50%.
Hope this helps.
Now if it does then any strategy I outline following has to be applied with eyes wide open because you WILL have the shares called out. The January 16th $1.50 options are trading $0.20 x $0.30. You sell a covered call at the bid (for instant fill) then you're called out net price would be $1.70 ($1.50/share paid when called out PLUS the $0.20/share paid to you for the covered call).
This is exactly what I have done the previous two times the stock hit near this $1.40 resistance. If my average buy price is $1.02 (which it is) then it would have reduced those shares now by 40 cents, meaning my shares held are at a net cost of $0.62. If the shares had broken out on either of those last two times then I would have been called out, so I only apply this strategy to 50% of my holdings. That means my actual net shares is $0.82, but you see how it works.
When I was building capital wealth I would sell covered calls against 75% of my holdings because my ultimate goal back then was to increase capital. Now it's never more than 50%.
Hope this helps.
ATW continues to enjoy the energy move. I only told Joseph I had actually pulled the trigger on those shares but, given the OPEC impact on the markets, you could have thrown a rock and done pretty good. 
At any rate only posting now because if by chance others are in it I just sold some Jan 20th $11 covered calls.
At any rate only posting now because if by chance others are in it I just sold some Jan 20th $11 covered calls.
My old company... I miss offshore drilling
Traders should be aware of the vote this Sunday in Italy and the potential impact short term (maybe longer term if the no vote turns into an election in 2017). Here is a decent read to understand the vote and scenarios.
A VIX hedge would be prudent today.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-02/italy-s-referendum-guide-all-you-must-know-about-renzi-s-gamble
http://www.wsj.com/articles/italian-referendum-to-determine-matteo-renzis-fate-1480674602
A VIX hedge would be prudent today.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-02/italy-s-referendum-guide-all-you-must-know-about-renzi-s-gamble
http://www.wsj.com/articles/italian-referendum-to-determine-matteo-renzis-fate-1480674602
High Volume Bottom:
Sunoco (SUN) - Over the last two weeks it's had 5 days where it traded at more than 3x it's average volume. Of those five days, one was 5x avg volume (11/30) and one was 10x avg volume (11/22 - it's low). It's missed on earnings 3 of the last 4 quarters, but maybe oil is really heading back up. Also, it has a 14% dividend yield (~2x EPS - I doubt that can last).
It bottomed at 21.01 and is currently trading at 24.47.
Sunoco (SUN) - Over the last two weeks it's had 5 days where it traded at more than 3x it's average volume. Of those five days, one was 5x avg volume (11/30) and one was 10x avg volume (11/22 - it's low). It's missed on earnings 3 of the last 4 quarters, but maybe oil is really heading back up. Also, it has a 14% dividend yield (~2x EPS - I doubt that can last).
It bottomed at 21.01 and is currently trading at 24.47.
Interesting TastyTrade discussion on the referendum and trading Euro & Swiss Franc on the binary event.
Euro - Swiss Franc
Euro - Swiss Franc
Interim bearish trend started this week. For those that believe in buy and hold, the market has gone nowhere for 2 years.
S&P 500 closed at 2066.55 on Dec. 2nd 2014.claym711 said:
Interim bearish trend started this week. For those that believe in buy and hold, the market has gone nowhere for 2 years.
S&P 500 closed at 2191.95 today.
This equates to a price return of 6.1% and when you couple that with an approximate 2% dividend yield, and the market has returned over 10% in the past 2 years. While an approximate 5% total return is not exciting by any means, it is a better return than can be had from treasuries or high credit-quality corporates.
There are certainly ways to improve on a simple, buy and hold S&P 500 return, but it is not the case that the market has gone nowhere for 2 years.
You both have valid points. I do not ever want to say buy and hold isn't a decent strategy for the average investor who works and has little time. You are correct. And if you take just 45 days later start date in your data point you can easily see that the markets have traded sideways since then, with 120 S&P points of that overall gain coming since NOVEMBER 8th 2016 when the markets closed a whopping 22 points above February 2015. Restating the obvious, that is 22 points above going no where the better part of 2 years. The charts don't lie.
The dividend yield in woody'a example was offset by 2% in inflation.
4% over 2 years sucks. It's a strategy but risking 100% for 2% a year. Bleh.
4% over 2 years sucks. It's a strategy but risking 100% for 2% a year. Bleh.
My annualized return has been 5X my 2014 annualized return. Volatility is a traders playground.Comeby! said:
The dividend yield in woody'a example was offset by 2% in inflation.
4% over 2 years sucks. It's a strategy but risking 100% for 2% a year. Bleh.
oldarmy1 said:
For the traders our there. Here is one of my favorite tactics on small caps like CIE. Let's say you bought 50k shares of CIE anytime between the below $1 major long term support and the $1.30 initial resistance point. The stock is showing signs of a breakout but hasn't been able to bust out the $1.40 major resistance yet.
Now if it does then any strategy I outline following has to be applied with eyes wide open because you WILL have the shares called out. The January 16th $1.50 options are trading $0.20 x $0.30. You sell a covered call at the bid (for instant fill) then you're called out net price would be $1.70 ($1.50/share paid when called out PLUS the $0.20/share paid to you for the covered call).
This is exactly what I have done the previous two times the stock hit near this $1.40 resistance. If my average buy price is $1.02 (which it is) then it would have reduced those shares now by 40 cents, meaning my shares held are at a net cost of $0.62. If the shares had broken out on either of those last two times then I would have been called out, so I only apply this strategy to 50% of my holdings. That means my actual net shares is $0.82, but you see how it works.
When I was building capital wealth I would sell covered calls against 75% of my holdings because my ultimate goal back then was to increase capital. Now it's never more than 50%.
Hope this helps.
Are people in this thread routinely dropping $50k in a 'day' trade of a $1 stock? If so, I'm wayyyy out of my league just opening the thread.
that sounds like a lot but percentage wise that's not a huge trade for him...most of our ham and egger accounts it's wowingEl Chupacabra said:oldarmy1 said:
For the traders our there. Here is one of my favorite tactics on small caps like CIE. Let's say you bought 50k shares of CIE anytime between the below $1 major long term support and the $1.30 initial resistance point. The stock is showing signs of a breakout but hasn't been able to bust out the $1.40 major resistance yet.
Now if it does then any strategy I outline following has to be applied with eyes wide open because you WILL have the shares called out. The January 16th $1.50 options are trading $0.20 x $0.30. You sell a covered call at the bid (for instant fill) then you're called out net price would be $1.70 ($1.50/share paid when called out PLUS the $0.20/share paid to you for the covered call).
This is exactly what I have done the previous two times the stock hit near this $1.40 resistance. If my average buy price is $1.02 (which it is) then it would have reduced those shares now by 40 cents, meaning my shares held are at a net cost of $0.62. If the shares had broken out on either of those last two times then I would have been called out, so I only apply this strategy to 50% of my holdings. That means my actual net shares is $0.82, but you see how it works.
When I was building capital wealth I would sell covered calls against 75% of my holdings because my ultimate goal back then was to increase capital. Now it's never more than 50%.
Hope this helps.
Are people in this thread routinely dropping $50k in a 'day' trade of a $1 stock? If so, I'm wayyyy out of my league just opening the thread.
but not that big of a deal ...i usually go strait up options but I snagged up some shares in this as support looks pretty solid, and can hold a good number of shares for a while with no real concern to margin, if it pops it pops, if not it's ain't gonna hurt much ***** also key to note here is he isn't outright shares if I read that right, he sold covered calls against those shares which greatly reduces cost basis and downside losses, buying time for something like this show signs of life and collecting premium and lowering long term basis if it just sits or goes lower
since volatility dried up I'm looking for stuff to do and this makes as much sense as anything else (leverage cheap shares), I'm not as big as him so I'm not fiddling with the calls for now but that is a great easy/"safe" go to strategy for beginning options traders (really no excuse not to have that one strategy in the golf bag once you really get trading. . . it's easy, it lessens risk, it lowers margin and buys you time to be right on a pop, the trade off for those benefits and increasing your probability of winning is that it limits upside profitability)
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