quote:I started buying some bank stocks early this morning. Not going to use up everything in case things drop further, but looked like a good opportunity.quote:
Anyone else thinking we gap up tomorrow and hit 2020 before fading?
First half of your thinking is in play.
Stock Markets
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Last: 1 hr ago by Charismatic Megafauna
Can someone explain the movement of DOW (Dow Chemical) to me today? Figured it would go up with the announcement of layoffs, and analysts had it listed as a buy. It was up in pre-market trading but is now down 2.5% on the day.
My guess would be higher natural gas prices and slower global GDP.
Actually, just saw that today was dividend payment so $.46 is attributed to that.
Market is stuck here around 2020. We're going to 2040 or back to 2000. With TLT trading up, I'm still leaning towards we fade this rally. The VIX is throwing me off though but I think it's down because it went up so much so the price action is distorted.
quote:I suggest making a simple excel sheet that plots the price of entry from the most recent highs. That is your initial value entry analytic. What is your strategy for the buys? Are you looking at a swing trade or hold/dollar cost average approach?quote:I started buying some bank stocks early this morning. Not going to use up everything in case things drop further, but looked like a good opportunity.quote:
Anyone else thinking we gap up tomorrow and hit 2020 before fading?
First half of your thinking is in play.
quote:I do keep an excel spreadsheet. I'd rather hold though. I'm not big enough into this day trading stuff like this group. I've learned to buy when people panic. It has done well for me...I just hope I wasn't too early.quote:I suggest making a simple excel sheet that plots the price of entry from the most recent highs. That is your initial value entry analytic. What is your strategy for the buys? Are you looking at a swing trade or hold/dollar cost average approach?quote:I started buying some bank stocks early this morning. Not going to use up everything in case things drop further, but looked like a good opportunity.quote:
Anyone else thinking we gap up tomorrow and hit 2020 before fading?
First half of your thinking is in play.
I'd love to learn what you guys do, but there's a lot of craziness for an outsider to immediately pick it up and be dangerous with it.
I bought Giliad yesterday. It has a PE of 6. I have a hard rule that if a great company I always wanted hits a PE of 6 then I buy it.
Here's how I do it and it really nothing scientific at all, more stubbornness on my part I guess.
The only bank stock I own is JPM. In February, the low was around $50, and when Dimon bought I think $25M worth of stock around $54 and that's when it took off. So I'm not buying anymore JPM above $54. There is strong demand at $54. The other side of the coin is that if Dimon bought at $54 in February, if he doesn't buy again when it gets low, this stock could tank. I'll worry about that then but I won't buy JPM above $54.
Also with financials, the market was pricing in higher rates. That is obviously not going to happen this year so that hurts banks. I think JPM and other financials still have room to drop.
A major world currency dropped 10% overnight, we're not going back to normal anytime soon.
The only bank stock I own is JPM. In February, the low was around $50, and when Dimon bought I think $25M worth of stock around $54 and that's when it took off. So I'm not buying anymore JPM above $54. There is strong demand at $54. The other side of the coin is that if Dimon bought at $54 in February, if he doesn't buy again when it gets low, this stock could tank. I'll worry about that then but I won't buy JPM above $54.
Also with financials, the market was pricing in higher rates. That is obviously not going to happen this year so that hurts banks. I think JPM and other financials still have room to drop.
A major world currency dropped 10% overnight, we're not going back to normal anytime soon.
Finally a breakout, just went the wrong way then I thought
Sunk some money into BCS today. Then sold covered July16 Calls at 8 for 0.25. I'll take 3.5% return this month! Who knows how long the IV stays at 84%, but I'll take it.
Today's action reminds me of the old Peter Lynch quote, which I will paraphrase:
"I don't know which way the market will go for the next 1,000 points. But the next 6,000 points are up"!
Peter Lynch said that when the Dow and S&P were about half what they are today.
For what it's worth I doubt the future holds only cotton candy and unicorn rainbows for stocks, commodities, currencies and business. There's a Hell of a lot going wrong right now in the world, a bunch of uncertainty and some gigantic government economic nitwits running major countries!
"I don't know which way the market will go for the next 1,000 points. But the next 6,000 points are up"!
Peter Lynch said that when the Dow and S&P were about half what they are today.
For what it's worth I doubt the future holds only cotton candy and unicorn rainbows for stocks, commodities, currencies and business. There's a Hell of a lot going wrong right now in the world, a bunch of uncertainty and some gigantic government economic nitwits running major countries!
Despite another terrorist attack, futures are up. I looked back at how the market reacted to other terror attacks recently:
And after 9/11 market crapped. This is small data and these are the attacks I remember off the top of my head but unless the U.S. is attacked, the market shrugs it off.
- Boston Bombing - April 15, 2013 the DOW dropped 266 or 1.8%
- Paris Bombing - November 13, 2015 the following Monday, S&P up 30pts
- San Bernidino - December 2, 2015 S&P falls about 30pts
- Orlando Shooting - June 13, S&P down 20pts
And after 9/11 market crapped. This is small data and these are the attacks I remember off the top of my head but unless the U.S. is attacked, the market shrugs it off.
Gold found support and up $6.50 so some safety monies flowing early. With markets 2nd day strong green open if gold moves up higher today then look for at least a short term top. That means swing traders in Monday near close would be taking profits today.
Also, MNKD when pointing out the huge volume day after big drop signaling an entry around .85 and to look for it to fill the gap back up to $1.28. Well I was busy and didn't post that it completed the gap a couple of days back. I am assuming that anyone who gets in a trade with target is going to be on those exit points on their own.
Also, MNKD when pointing out the huge volume day after big drop signaling an entry around .85 and to look for it to fill the gap back up to $1.28. Well I was busy and didn't post that it completed the gap a couple of days back. I am assuming that anyone who gets in a trade with target is going to be on those exit points on their own.
WOW, did not see this move coming at all. At best I was expecting sideways action until earnings or quarter close. That's why I don't do this for a living.
Ah, here comes the Fed talking dovish policies again. Created an initial spike and then back to trend line intraday before pressing higher.
FREE MONEY! Markets are forward looking so until/unless they see the end, or collapse, of the policies coming we won't see too much change in markets. A breakout to new highs could even be possible with the economic undercurrents. BREXIT was seen as breaking away from the establishement but the establishment is still making all the rules.
Turns out BREXIT gave an excuse for Fed to kick the can down the road and, in an election year, they will be pressured to continue to do so. It also means whoever wins the Presidency is going to face the music and be seen as a failure economically. There's your small ray of sunshine for those seeing Hillary as the shoe-in.
FREE MONEY! Markets are forward looking so until/unless they see the end, or collapse, of the policies coming we won't see too much change in markets. A breakout to new highs could even be possible with the economic undercurrents. BREXIT was seen as breaking away from the establishement but the establishment is still making all the rules.
Turns out BREXIT gave an excuse for Fed to kick the can down the road and, in an election year, they will be pressured to continue to do so. It also means whoever wins the Presidency is going to face the music and be seen as a failure economically. There's your small ray of sunshine for those seeing Hillary as the shoe-in.
I would have thought TLT would sell off with this rise. It looks like oil dictates the market.
TLT, oil, stocks, and gold are all up. Is this normal?
quote:Nope.
TLT, oil, stocks, and gold are all up. Is this normal?
TLT is following suit now, and gold may not be too far behind.
Big sell orders just hit on SPY.
What are your thoughts on buying and holding a gold etf (like NUGT) at this time? Appreciate all of the commentary on this thread.
Seriously. I don't understand. I thought we'd see quite a bit of downward movement this week at least, not just on one day.... Wow.
quote:
Seriously. I don't understand. I thought we'd see quite a bit of downward movement this week at least, not just on one day.... Wow.
Fed policy driving the bus.
The FED punted and established a policy for when another country leaves the Euro. And another country leaves the Euro. And another country leaves the Euro.
What you have is zero interest rate risk for the next 3 years.
What you have is zero interest rate risk for the next 3 years.
The inverse H&S you can see in a few places (S&P, oil), played out and this run is massively overextended right now. Yesterday when VIX was down like 15% and S&P was down as well, you knew this was coming. I would not be surprised to see a an impulsive sell off in the next few days.
From Jeff:
Not one negative 1000 nyse $TICK, 8.61:1 NYSE breadth, 4.46:1 positive breadth in NASD
Not one negative 1000 nyse $TICK, 8.61:1 NYSE breadth, 4.46:1 positive breadth in NASD
So here we all are plotting our charts, picking our fibanocci retracement levels, messaging our assets allocations and BOOM, Brexit happens and the Fed speaks.
For all the old timers who remember Monty Python, it reminds me of the giant foot stomping down from the heavens on we little people.
For all the old timers who remember Monty Python, it reminds me of the giant foot stomping down from the heavens on we little people.
quote:Hasn't this been referred to "risk on" for the last few years? It seems that with all the QE most things have been correlated; however, I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn last night.quote:Nope.
TLT, oil, stocks, and gold are all up. Is this normal?
quote:I got demolished opening a short position after the second close below 2040. Licked my wounds today at a 85% loss.quote:
Seriously. I don't understand. I thought we'd see quite a bit of downward movement this week at least, not just on one day.... Wow.
Fed policy driving the bus.
I'm still happy with my BCS purchase and think that buy coupled with covered calls will be great over the next year or so.
quote:You don't even need a Motel 8 stay to know you are right on!quote:Hasn't this been referred to "risk on" for the last few years? It seems that with all the QE most things have been correlated; however, I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn last night.quote:Nope.
TLT, oil, stocks, and gold are all up. Is this normal?
quote:
If you want what I would consider to be my best trade right now it would be a July 1st SPY 205 strike price Call at $2.
If carried out, I believe this would bring an almost 30% profit as of today. Very nice oldarmy.
quote:Thanks....Closed it at the close. Buddy took position Monday at close and had a 220% ROI. Amazing the power of options in short amount of time.quote:
If you want what I would consider to be my best trade right now it would be a July 1st SPY 205 strike price Call at $2.
If carried out, I believe this would bring an almost 30% profit as of today. Very nice oldarmy.
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