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Last: 39 min ago by ReturnOfTheAg
quote:If Gross is referring to passive index ETF returns, I agree with this. That's becoming a very crowded trade (more ETFs than ever) dominated by a few large-cap stocks. Value or active is an alternative.
Bill Gross came out yesterday saying very different investment environment than the last 40 years. Expect low single digit stock returns going forward and own cash.
quote:Still waiting. I know the sideways action is boring as heck if you aren't a trader but I have yet to have a pure signal and it's only on a pure signal that I'll post it.
Oldarmy, you've been waiting for your last trigger and it sounds like it was verified?
Bill gross is phenomenal on bond predictions but he has been horribly wrong on stock market predictions. I do admire that he is one of the only ones that admits his mistakes.
S&P challenging most recent highs. DOW chugging abive 17900. S&P ahead of DOW on recent move.
The international market easing can only be viewed as our own QE5 because it is keeping our rates lower than they would otherwise be. When our rates should be .5% or even 0.75% but international monetary policy is forcing to keep ours artificially low, that presents exploitation opportunity from a theoretical standpoint. Especially when debt laden companies already had higher rates priced into their future costs versus earnings. Caterpillar comes to mind in that regard.
Exactly Bonfire. Kicking the can down the road is a world-wide event.
For those trading off top resistance....that was your entry point on SPY puts. If we break 2013 you bail. Love easy entry decisions.
GDP growth decelerating over the last 4 quarters:
3.9% to 2.0% to 1.4% to 0.8%
And Janet Yellen threatening to raise interest rates due to "the improving economy". Under Bill Clinton the US averaged creating over 300,000 jobs per month but under Obama we are supposed to get excited with 160,000 jobs per month. Except last month is was 38,000!
One of the worst things about being old is I am harder to fool. Just not very many surprises these days for me. One day the market will reflect the underlying deterioration in our economy and earnings. I'll leave it to oldarmy1 and you technical guys to tell me when it's going to happen. But I do know sooner or later it's going to happen.
3.9% to 2.0% to 1.4% to 0.8%
And Janet Yellen threatening to raise interest rates due to "the improving economy". Under Bill Clinton the US averaged creating over 300,000 jobs per month but under Obama we are supposed to get excited with 160,000 jobs per month. Except last month is was 38,000!
One of the worst things about being old is I am harder to fool. Just not very many surprises these days for me. One day the market will reflect the underlying deterioration in our economy and earnings. I'll leave it to oldarmy1 and you technical guys to tell me when it's going to happen. But I do know sooner or later it's going to happen.
DOW 18k and S&P with another attempt to break out and both have a bullish chart formed over last 10 days. Never underestimate the power of free money to corporations.
Hopefully get a rate raise and the market gets back to a valuation where I'm comfortable going long. It's unfortunate that we are in a position where bad news, like the jobs report, is actually good news due to its effect on monetary policy.
quote:
Hopefully get a rate raise and the market gets back to a valuation where I'm comfortable going long. It's unfortunate that we are in a position where bad news, like the jobs report, is actually good news due to its effect on monetary policy.
Boy O boy is that ever the truth! This is why I keep a core position of high quality dividend paying stocks for the long run. Our economy is in real trouble but the Fed/Gigantic government can act like Thor's hammer and change the game at any minute! It's really downright scary!
Once again the most conservative trade strategy of shorting the DOW when it makes it above 18k pays off. But the other half of that strategy is to always sell half as early as the next premarket and be completely insulated from loss.
VIX has rocketed past few days. FOMC, BRExit...could be a big bearish setup. I suspect no rate raise this week, however.
S&P right at trend line off February lows.
Forgot OPEX this week also.
Closed some UVXY way too early today
Forgot OPEX this week also.
Closed some UVXY way too early today
VIX seems like a good buy any time when it dips into the 13's. What would cause it to dip into the single digits? Asking cause it looks like this has never happened. Buy in the 13's and selling after some volatility has worked out pretty well.
Shorted VIX the past couple of days. Will probably keep scalping VIX shorts until next week. Markets at key level right now, IMO, ahead of FOMC, BOJ, and BRExit Vote.
It's obvious there will be no rate hike, but what BOJ and BRExit do are less certain. One of those could send the S&P back to test 2020-2040. I suspect there will be no surprises, though.
Long term I'm very short, but think Market melts up for a few days
It's obvious there will be no rate hike, but what BOJ and BRExit do are less certain. One of those could send the S&P back to test 2020-2040. I suspect there will be no surprises, though.
Long term I'm very short, but think Market melts up for a few days
To the guy who PM'd me this weekend asking why I hadn't posted the reversal call.....I give you this mornings +26.75 S&P. Sideways can be frustrating unless you trade the channel. It is what it is but I'll tell you when it ain't. 
Shorting that 26.75 for an early scalp is what most (successful) day traders would be doing. I don't day trade, so doesn't matter to me. Let's have a great week!
Shorting that 26.75 for an early scalp is what most (successful) day traders would be doing. I don't day trade, so doesn't matter to me. Let's have a great week!
Bird Poo
Joined:
Nov 16, 2005
Posts:
20,203
How long do you want to ignore this user?
And if you shorted S&P at +26.75 you close out here at +16.50 for a 10 point gain. Maybe I SHOULD day trade....
Was short VIX over the weekend. Worked out pretty well 
. Ended up shorting it again towards the close today.
. Ended up shorting it again towards the close today.
Just getting into this. Is shorting VIX still a good plan with BREXIT trending toward staying in the EU? I know this is a noob question.
To be fair this is a "game" that I'm playin g and not for real cash. Short selling makes me nervous in general, but I imagine that a "stay" vote Thursday will make the VIX drop considerably, no?
quote:
That is gambling, not trading.
There's a difference?
I keed, I keed.
quote:
To be fair this is a "game" that I'm playin g and not for real cash. Short selling makes me nervous in general, but I imagine that a "stay" vote Thursday will make the VIX drop considerably, no?
I think most people expect them to remain. At least that's what the bookies are betting. So I'd think its already priced in.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
quote:quote:
To be fair this is a "game" that I'm playin g and not for real cash. Short selling makes me nervous in general, but I imagine that a "stay" vote Thursday will make the VIX drop considerably, no?
I think most people expect them to remain. At least that's what the bookies are betting. So I'd think its already priced in.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result
There is not much risk in shorting UVXY, assuming you're not levered. Exactly what I am doing. Nor was it a gamble to short retailers chasing the massive spike in VIX/UVXY ahead of any corresponding move in the market. Obviously ahead of BRExit, now, there is more risk in a VIX trade if you need to be able to move in and out of positions daily. I don't.
Polls showing the remain side closing the gap caused large gap ups recently. Remain isn't fully priced in, however upside is limited in my opinion, and there are a lot of gaps to the downside on a vote to exit.
I had the highest readings of a market reversal since April 20th. Not 100% still, so if I had to give a percentage confidence it would 95%. Obviously that means I would continue with my current strategy of shorting tops but I would change the sell half on these down moves to 25%.
Also, another change is the short strategy being above 18k. We most likely do not see 18k now.
To be clear, when I keep saying "sell half of your Puts or cover 50% of your shorts" that means if you shorted 1000 shares you covered 500. For example IBB 1000 short shares at $283 and cover 500 at $260, booking $23 for 500 shares. Last top posted it had made it back to $283 so short 1000 shares. It reached $260 couple of days ago so cover 500 shares for another $23/share profit. You now hold 1000 short shares with $23/share security ABOVE $283. In other words, the goal is to build a short position during this sideways action using the upper resistance as your security shield.
BTW - look at volume today on IBB....either another support bounce coming off $260 area OR if the greater market breaks down then it goes with it. I'd trade Call options on the cheap here st $275 strike.
Happy Trading!
Also, another change is the short strategy being above 18k. We most likely do not see 18k now.
To be clear, when I keep saying "sell half of your Puts or cover 50% of your shorts" that means if you shorted 1000 shares you covered 500. For example IBB 1000 short shares at $283 and cover 500 at $260, booking $23 for 500 shares. Last top posted it had made it back to $283 so short 1000 shares. It reached $260 couple of days ago so cover 500 shares for another $23/share profit. You now hold 1000 short shares with $23/share security ABOVE $283. In other words, the goal is to build a short position during this sideways action using the upper resistance as your security shield.
BTW - look at volume today on IBB....either another support bounce coming off $260 area OR if the greater market breaks down then it goes with it. I'd trade Call options on the cheap here st $275 strike.
Happy Trading!
VIX at 21 up 10% People getting ready. Good job to the guy that bought volatility when the VIX was around 12.
I'm sitting on a SPY weekly condor which has sat right in the middle, but is still showing a loss due to IV spiking (probably because the BRExit vote).
I want to learn how to do what y'all do so badly. How did you all start? How old were you when you began learning?
Two primary drivers of today's action:
1) Brexit vote obviously expected to stick with EU
2) Home sales had a 9 year high
1) Brexit vote obviously expected to stick with EU
2) Home sales had a 9 year high
quote:
I want to learn how to do what y'all do so badly. How did you all start? How old were you when you began learning?
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