Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Time to be greedy when others are fearful.

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You haven't seen fear yet.

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Brother I've been trading for 10 years.

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I've got underwear older than that.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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And please point out where I I ever said the words "max fear", or that we've hit bottom.

But it's not a bad place to start buying the dip on semis. SOXX is down -20% in just over 2 weeks, and nearing a major support level.

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Fair enough. And ya, they could catch a relief bounce.

I just get triggered when people misuse that Warren quote. He was talking about real fear. Not minor pullbacks. You will not know real fear from the CNN indicator. It will drag its lows. Now, when CNN comes out with "markets in turmoil", that's a great bullish indicator. I believe it was actually you who mentioned than in April oof 2025

FishrCoAg said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Time to be greedy when others are fearful.

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You haven't seen fear yet.

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Brother I've been trading for 10 years.

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I've got underwear older than that.

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I bet it stinks

I think last real high fear was COVID shutdown. That's been quite a bit.

Liberation Day

Someone just loaded nearly $25 MILLION of $SOXL puts in 18 minutes 🚨

$21M of it on two identical Jan 2029 $55 put blocks

Then 8 more sweeps on this week's $80 puts as SOXL slid from 87 to 85 pic.twitter.com/e1HuhYdhMS

— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) October 22, 2026

Yeah that one too!

Wait for the circuit breakers like COVID! It's currently only sector rotation

Careful on MRNA

Someone just loaded $10 MILLION+ of $MRNA puts IN JUST 13 minutes 🚨

14 of the 17 prints expire TOMORROW pic.twitter.com/cmPxEtNCya

— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) October 22, 2026

Not sure how we can be in extreme fear when we are <3% off all time highs.

Anyone looking at nuclear? Huge drawdown the past month

Perfect time to raid France for all the nuclear engineers and project managers!

A significant portion of the run up to that point was on the belief that AI was going to usher in massive profits and productivity gains. The majority of gains we've seen in the stock market over the last year or two have been related to the LLM-based AI buildout.

The problem is these two big frontier AI companies are bleeding cash and will owe something like $800 billion in non-cancelable compute contracts over the next few years. They cannot afford them. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday the Anthropic prospectus is a nightmare. Anticipate losing $80 billion this year despite widespread adoption of Claude Code and token maxxing earlier this year. Revenue growth is slowing.

A significant portion of the data center buildout companies like Coreweave are deep in debt and some of them are approaching credit default swap territory similar to what we saw in the financial crisis. Gartner released a report earlier this week predicting up to 80% of neoclouds like Coreweave will be out of business or acquired by 2030.

Massive cash flow companies like Meta and Microsoft are running low on free cash flow and are going into debt to fund more data center build-outs.

Oracle is so overlevered they could possibly go under and it's not going to be pretty.

The warning signs are there that the AI trade was way over inflated. Whether what we've seen over the last few weeks is the actual bubble bursting or just a little bit of deflation before another run up, I have no idea.

And then there's the uncertainty around sovereign debt, and that's worldwide. France not looking too great.

Bought CEG at $260. Added more today at 255.

ErnestEndeavor said:

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A significant portion of the run up to that point was on the belief that AI was going to usher in massive profits and productivity gains. The majority of gains we've seen in the stock market over the last year or two have been related to the LLM-based AI buildout.

The problem is these two big frontier AI companies are bleeding cash and will owe something like $800 billion in non-cancelable compute contracts over the next few years. They cannot afford them. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday the Anthropic prospectus is a nightmare. Anticipate losing $80 billion this year despite widespread adoption of Claude Code and token maxxing earlier this year. Revenue growth is slowing.

A significant portion of the data center buildout companies like Coreweave are deep in debt and some of them are approaching credit default swap territory similar to what we saw in the financial crisis. Gartner released a report earlier this week predicting up to 80% of neoclouds like Coreweave will be out of business or acquired by 2030.

Massive cash flow companies like Meta and Microsoft are running low on free cash flow and are going into debt to fund more data center build-outs.

Oracle is so overlevered they could possibly go under and it's not going to be pretty.

The warning signs are there that the AI trade was way over inflated. Whether what we've seen over the last few weeks is the actual bubble bursting or just a little bit of deflation before another run up, I have no idea.

And then there's the uncertainty around sovereign debt, and that's worldwide. France not looking too great.

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That is all true... but "extreme fear" has not been reflected in the price in the market. Sure the market seems skeptical, but no one is irrationally selling out of fear at large scale right now.

Chef Elko said:

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Anyone looking at nuclear? Huge drawdown the past month

Perfect time to raid France for all the nuclear engineers and project managers!

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I've got a close eye on NLR. Haven't opened a position yet, but I'm getting close to starting one

harge57 said:

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ErnestEndeavor said:

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A significant portion of the run up to that point was on the belief that AI was going to usher in massive profits and productivity gains. The majority of gains we've seen in the stock market over the last year or two have been related to the LLM-based AI buildout.

The problem is these two big frontier AI companies are bleeding cash and will owe something like $800 billion in non-cancelable compute contracts over the next few years. They cannot afford them. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday the Anthropic prospectus is a nightmare. Anticipate losing $80 billion this year despite widespread adoption of Claude Code and token maxxing earlier this year. Revenue growth is slowing.

A significant portion of the data center buildout companies like Coreweave are deep in debt and some of them are approaching credit default swap territory similar to what we saw in the financial crisis. Gartner released a report earlier this week predicting up to 80% of neoclouds like Coreweave will be out of business or acquired by 2030.

Massive cash flow companies like Meta and Microsoft are running low on free cash flow and are going into debt to fund more data center build-outs.

Oracle is so overlevered they could possibly go under and it's not going to be pretty.

The warning signs are there that the AI trade was way over inflated. Whether what we've seen over the last few weeks is the actual bubble bursting or just a little bit of deflation before another run up, I have no idea.

And then there's the uncertainty around sovereign debt, and that's worldwide. France not looking too great.

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That is all true... but "extreme fear" has not been reflected in the price in the market. Sure the market seems skeptical, but no one is irrationally selling out of fear at large scale right now.

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ErnestEndeavor said:

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A significant portion of the run up to that point was on the belief that AI was going to usher in massive profits and productivity gains. The majority of gains we've seen in the stock market over the last year or two have been related to the LLM-based AI buildout.

The problem is these two big frontier AI companies are bleeding cash and will owe something like $800 billion in non-cancelable compute contracts over the next few years. They cannot afford them. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday the Anthropic prospectus is a nightmare. Anticipate losing $80 billion this year despite widespread adoption of Claude Code and token maxxing earlier this year. Revenue growth is slowing.

A significant portion of the data center buildout companies like Coreweave are deep in debt and some of them are approaching credit default swap territory similar to what we saw in the financial crisis. Gartner released a report earlier this week predicting up to 80% of neoclouds like Coreweave will be out of business or acquired by 2030.

Massive cash flow companies like Meta and Microsoft are running low on free cash flow and are going into debt to fund more data center build-outs.

Oracle is so overlevered they could possibly go under and it's not going to be pretty.

The warning signs are there that the AI trade was way over inflated. Whether what we've seen over the last few weeks is the actual bubble bursting or just a little bit of deflation before another run up, I have no idea.

And then there's the uncertainty around sovereign debt, and that's worldwide. France not looking too great.

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IMO, there's a flush out or culling in every new industry. Saw it with automobiles. Saw it with personal computers. Now we'll see it with AI.

To be clear, the VIX is up but still below what we saw earlier in the year and not even close to spikes we saw in the GFC and COVID. So I agree, as of right now there's not a lot of panic buying and selling but moreso unwinding and moving into treasuries.

My personal opinion on that is the rich will get richer.

We could see some of the neocloud assets being bought up by Nvidia and I wouldn't be shocked if some combination of Microsoft, Amazon, and Google end up controlling Anthropic and OpenAI.

So will continued selloff happen tomorrow as well, as a slide into the weekend?

Doesn't Google already own like 10% of one of those?

If QQQ can't hold 700, 680s are definitely on deck.

I am in the sand space in the Permian, so I'm very familiar with AESI. I don't know much about their power business, but the sand space in the Permian is overcrowded. Oil has been elevated for over 6 months at this point and we still can't really move price. It's almost not investable at this point and this is coming from someone who runs a sand company.

Atlas has been losing money for the past several quarters and their higher priced contracts are going to mostly expire by the end of the year. The Dune Express is a monumental waste of capital. They paid $400M to build a 42 mile sand conveyor when there is sand on the ground at the end of the conveyor. It's insane. Sure, the BLM makes it difficult to get a plant in NM, but there are plants just across the border and I'm certain someone will get the BLM to play ball. Hell, there's a plant being built in NM right now on private land.

I wouldn't touch AESI with a 10 foot poll, but perhaps I'm just too close to it. Maybe this really is the bottom for them. I just think that a large sand provider having all your eggs in the Permian basket is insane. They better hope their power business takes off.

FishrCoAg said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Time to be greedy when others are fearful.

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You haven't seen fear yet.

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Brother I've been trading for 10 years.

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I've got underwear older than that.

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I have a SWC T shirt!

Just bought the SPCX 11/20 155C at $5.25

The SMH is only 6pts from the 200DMA. It hasn't touched the 200DMA in over 17 months!

If we gap down tomorrow, I'm a buyer there.

Gaeilge said:

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Doesn't Google already own like 10% of one of those?

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MSFT owns like 25% of Open AI
Google and AMZN own like 15% each of Anthropic

I would also note I think any takeover by some of these would have serious Anti-Trust pushback...

Palantir's CEO has said in multiple interviews that he thinks Anthropic is aiming to get taken over by the federal government!

$WDC (Western Digital) #earnings are out: pic.twitter.com/voRd2H25xw

— The Earnings Correspondent (@earnings_guy) October 22, 2026

$BE (Bloom Energy) #earnings are out: pic.twitter.com/vsvQn0HDst

— The Earnings Correspondent (@earnings_guy) October 22, 2026

Bloom numbers look good

DIA ever so slightly green.

RSP (equal weight S&P500) green.

QQQ crushed

SPY not great

IWM slightly green

Interesting times afoot.

When's the last time the DOW outperformed the NASDAQ by >2.6% on a given close?

Gaeilge said:

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$WDC (Western Digital) #earnings are out: pic.twitter.com/voRd2H25xw

— The Earnings Correspondent (@earnings_guy) October 22, 2026

$BE (Bloom Energy) #earnings are out: pic.twitter.com/vsvQn0HDst

— The Earnings Correspondent (@earnings_guy) October 22, 2026

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both getting smoked AH

How tf is Oracle unscathed in all of this

Chef Elko said:

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How tf is Oracle unscathed in all of this

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How is it unscathed? It's down like 65% from its high

Oh yeah it's bad bad for them. Just talking about the last few weeks. I expected it to be worse with the amount of leverage they have.