How is everyone playing copper?

aggies4life said:

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How is everyone playing copper?

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I usually play COPX. But I'm currently not playing, as mean reversion is going to be nasty once this completes.

aggies4life said:

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How is everyone playing copper?

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FCX - get copper, gold, and in theory an operational uplift, all in one large company.

I've bought and sold it for years (probably 30 trades, including options). Currently hold shares and $65 covered calls. Will let the shares be called away if needed.

For those followed on the IBIT puts, we are tracking to max target and full reversal as expected to $84.5k range. Only question is if it remains down here before open tomorrow. Will let yall know near the open if I plan to take remaining profits. I expect $3-$4 per contract as of now. Stock Markets - Page 7225 | TexAgs

ETH already completed it's reversal. So will need to watch close, as no guarantee BTC get's lower.

HA - I've been looking to get a long position into copper and COPX seems to be the largest ETF out there. Where do you see a good long term entry based on your charting? $50-60/share range?

Great call

HoustonAg_2009 said:

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HA - I've been looking to get a long position into copper and COPX seems to be the largest ETF out there. Where do you see a good long term entry based on your charting? $50-60/share range?

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Probably, though this move can extend to trendline, and possibly higher. Metals are always the most powerful in their final wave. That final power move almost always rockets through short-term trend channels, mid-term trend channels, and sometimes even gets higher than a long-term trend channel. The reversion to the mean is painful, as the general public and common retail trader usually doesn't join the trade until the blowoff is already in sequence. We are seeing that now across all metals. Higher is absolutely possible. But I can guarantee a significant selloff is looming.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Great call

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There's a reason ending diagonal reversals are my favorite trade. They show clear lack of conviction from bulls and come with a price AND timing target. I don't know a single other pattern that offers that. I'd say they pan out to full reversal about 75% of the time, and retrace the ending diagonal 76.4% in probably half of the remaining cases.

Options are limited risk but high reward. To have a timing target on a time decaying product is invaluable. I take every single ED reversal I identify. I size to 1-3% of account value. If I lose, small loss. But the majority win and many win huge.

Fed going to print dollar to buy Yen

I'll throw in the next one you share

Huh

They are a huge holder of US treasuries. A weak Yen is crushing them with all the energy they need to import and creating inflation. So they need to stabilize and defend their currency and could do so by selling US treasuries. But if they do that, US interest rates would rise. So our treasury will purchase Yen so they don't have to sell their US treasuries to buy Yen themselves. Basically FX markets can unwind quickly so the Fed is trying to stabilize.

Good explanation. Short term pain with carry trade unwinding but longer term a weaker dollar is good for asset prices.

🇺🇸 THE FED IS PREPARING TO SELL U.S. DOLLARS AND BUY JAPANESE YEN FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS CENTURY.

The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention. That means the U.S. is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen.

This… pic.twitter.com/7xFReOFoDo

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) January 25, 2026

So what's going to happen tomorrow? What's a good play off of this?

This is what the FED does. In 2008 and 2020, it was slashing rates and buying securities to expand balance sheet. In 2023, it was BTFP (because they couldn't lower rates with inflation high, and their balance sheet is already massively underwater). The balance sheet is still in a historically underwater position, the long end of the yield curve continues to call their rate cutting bluff, and they are desperate for anything. They know that those who sold short Yen to subsequently purchase risk assets, mainly US credit and US risk assets, will have to unwind all of it should the Yen reverse. This is essentially the FED doing the only thing it has the power to do to attempt to stop a massive unwind. It's likely to fail in the long run. And the FED will go further into insolvency. The next time the FED remits to the treasury, we might not be alive.

Thanks for the response. I'm in the energy space and back in March 2025 I met with a large manufacturer of electrical equipment. One of their executives stated that if data center/power gen build out is as big as people are forecasting there aren't enough copper mines in the world to handle the demand. Copper mines take over a decade to build. COPX is up about 100% since March 2025.

All In podcast host, Chamath Palihapitiya (venture capitalist), has his "#1 2026 pick, as copper companies/assets. For what it's worth…

Always Appreciate your response!

Gotcha. Thank you.

HoustonAg_2009 said:

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Thanks for the response. I'm in the energy space and back in March 2025 I met with a large manufacturer of electrical equipment. One of their executives stated that if data center/power gen build out is as big as people are forecasting there aren't enough copper mines in the world to handle the demand. Copper mines take over a decade to build. COPX is up about 100% since March 2025.

All In podcast host, Chamath Palihapitiya (venture capitalist), has his "#1 2026 pick, as copper companies/assets. For what it's worth…

Always Appreciate your response!

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I can't say he's going to be wrong. But I'd be careful taking cues from him. He's a serial pump and dumper, someone who follows the mood of the day, and almost everything he touches turns to **** after he takes his cut.

Agsrback12 said:

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So what's going to happen tomorrow? What's a good play off of this?

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I wish I was that smart to tell you.

It's likely August 2024 all over again. It'll make for a good excuse for the market to sell off but will be temporary. Major earnings this week too, and the market now has to deal with another shutdown which nobody was expecting. So IMO, just like every single time, buy the dip. US and Japan will work together to stabilize the Yen so buy the fear.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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flashplayer said:

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Heineken - what do you make of the TSSI chart if you get a moment to look at it?

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Will look over the weekend. Have to prepare for ICE (the winter storm)

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Sold part of my shares at the end of the year for loss harvesting but still hold a decent amount of it looking for the mid to high teens to recoup last year's loss and make some on top of that. Just curious what your targets would be on it and what would be the point you suggest cutting bait.

BREAKING: Canada’s PM Carney says he does not intend to sign trade deal with China after Trump threatened 100% tariffs

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) January 25, 2026

flashplayer said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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flashplayer said:

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Heineken - what do you make of the TSSI chart if you get a moment to look at it?

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Will look over the weekend. Have to prepare for ICE (the winter storm)

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Sold part of my shares at the end of the year for loss harvesting but still hold a decent amount of it looking for the mid to high teens to recoup last year's loss and make some on top of that. Just curious what your targets would be on it and what would be the point you suggest cutting bait.

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Apologies. I honestly forgot lol. Sue me.

This can be correctively topped, but it would cleaner with another B and C shown in orange.



And I'll tell you why I really like that.. island gaps. Love them. See below.

Amazon: Buy

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) January 25, 2026

Amazon $AMZN shareholders… https://t.co/pfmwN5HnSd pic.twitter.com/5LP27N6Tvd

— Just a Dude Who Invests (@DudeWhoInvests) January 25, 2026

Well crap, I think this is the first time I've had a major holding in a stock he says to buy.

Please no. That's one of my largest holdings.

I actually agree AMZN is going higher. To somewhere between $293 and $303. But as of now, I can't see a path that's not choppy up and down overlapping before hitting that range in May/June unless it drops under $200 soon, catches support, and then rockets straight back up.

If markets open down like the futures indicate, then I'll be buying a large position in $CLS at the open. They report earning Wednesday AH and if you look at the trailing 4qts they have beat expectations every time and earning continue to grow qtr over qtr, yr over yr. This is an earnings play for a swing trade based on their earnings trend and past guidance. If they misstep in the least then they will be punished, but I'm not worried about their report. The only risk that might present itself is disappointing forward guidance, but it's worth the risk for me. I don't rec options especially ones that are juiced as $CLS. If you want an all or nothing trade, then you can look at their calls for this week or next week expiry. I am buying shares.

Sold half my PLG to reduce risk. Target set on remainder at $4.45. Stop $2.97.

CRWV popping after a $2B investment from NVDA

TxAgLaw03RW said:

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CRWV popping after a $2B investment from NVDA

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Peter Klaven said:

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Anyone in USAR? Looks like our government just invested over $1B for a 10% stake of a $3B company.

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Looks like it's 277 mil in funding and 1.3 billion in a loan. No idea what the odds it actually gets paid back. They also just got 1.5 in private money. Going to be some new big spenders going around Stillwater.

I know it's not new but the government directly investing in private industry appears to be increasing in frequency.

Are you closing your position on this this morning or still letting it ride?

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Are you closing your position on this this morning or still letting it ride?

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Haven't decided. Ideally it would stay below the overnight high. As long as it does, I'm holding for one more low. If it breaks above I'll probably close out all but a runner.

Careful with big tech earnings. Most are in longer-term diagonal patterns which cause tons of overlap up and down and are very hard to predict timing and depth of bottoms and timing and strength of tops. Diagonals also have a tendency for the smaller shorter-term moves to themselves break down into diagonals. I have higher targets on a lot of them but can easily make a case for short-term sell offs. What I do know is there is very little edge in buying calls right now. Everything is expensive and premiums are jacked.