Heineken-Ashi said:

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Can move your stop on LABD to entry. IF it comes back down to there, best to not lose and wait for next opportunity if it holds $19 range.

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Back in the zone

From a traditional standpoint (excluding crypto's volatility) how does the stock COIN look to some of y'all?

Its basing here for 6 weeks now. I personally won't go long with it being under the weekly 30 (for swing trades), but do believe its basing for a move up at some point

TSLA with a new ATH. Thank you Elon.

Thank you

UNG mid 11s.

Prayers!

Assume I have covered calls on XYZ stock expiring 12/31 and I get assigned. Will the taxable transaction land in 2025?

Found a stock I love for the 26 list.

CSX

Buy under $37 with stop no lower than $33.49. Ultimate target is $66, but first profit taking area is $50 with potential to buy back as long as it holds $42 should it hit.

techno-ag said:

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UNG mid 11s.

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Way too deep in this one and missed my opportunity...would love to rebuy here, but not adding to an already oversized position.

El Chupacabra said:

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Assume I have covered calls on XYZ stock expiring 12/31 and I get assigned. Will the taxable transaction land in 2025?

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My understanding is the expiration date is the determinant of which year the premium counts towards (2025 here) but the settlement date is the date that determines which year the shares count towards (2026 here). So I think 2026 is the answer to your question if you are talking about the shares themselves, 2025 if the premium is what you are concerned with, but that has never happened to me so I am curious what more experienced minds think.

flashplayer said:

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El Chupacabra said:

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Assume I have covered calls on XYZ stock expiring 12/31 and I get assigned. Will the taxable transaction land in 2025?

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My understanding is the expiration date is the determinant of which year the premium counts towards (2025 here) but the settlement date is the date that determines which year the shares count towards (2026 here). So I think 2026 is the answer to your question if you are talking about the shares themselves, 2025 if the premium is what you are concerned with, but that has never happened to me so I am curious what more experienced minds think.

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If that is the case, I'll probably close both positions early. Don't want the premium (+ dollars) to hit in 2025 and the stock sale (- dollars) to hit in 26.

TSLA Jan 2 CC premiums are wild rn

Yukon Cornelius said:

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From a traditional standpoint (excluding crypto's volatility) how does the stock COIN look to some of y'all?

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for years everyone said "if you want to invest in BTC then buy BTC, don't buy a derivative of COIN"

but this week I heard Coinbase will start with more betting apps, like a Kalshi or Polymarket.

it may be that drives the millenials AWAY from crypto and into the betting markets- they are saying now potentially a trillion dollar market

the same young people buying crypto at a high risk will now move to betting on "events" instead.

Interesting

XME (S&P metals and mining ETF) has a pretty clean setup to turn bearish. No confirmation until red trendline is broken with a pattern of 5 clear distinct waves down, likely to the high $90's. If that happens followed by a lower high, then its time to short.

prayers sent

LMCane said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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From a traditional standpoint (excluding crypto's volatility) how does the stock COIN look to some of y'all?

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for years everyone said "if you want to invest in BTC then buy BTC, don't buy a derivative of COIN"

but this week I heard Coinbase will start with more betting apps, like a Kalshi or Polymarket.

it may be that drives the millenials AWAY from crypto and into the betting markets- they are saying now potentially a trillion dollar market

the same young people buying crypto at a high risk will now move to betting on "events" instead.

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Dunno but I suspect they're competing with Robinhood which already has that sports betting stuff and Bitcoin and all the popular alt coins.

that argument is also kind of along the same lines of "don't buy the bank, buy the currency". $COIN will eventually index less directly with the crypto currency.

I think this is a case of the easy money has already been made to the long side, but it doesn't mean you should short it given industrial demand.

Maybe we can invade Mexico and steal their silver. lol.

EliteZags said:

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TSLA Jan 2 CC premiums are wild rn

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Stock scares me. No real reason to be at a ATH

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I think this is a case of the easy money has already been made to the long side, but it doesn't mean you should short it given industrial demand.

Maybe we can invade Mexico and steal their silver. lol.

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Like I said, need a setup to develop to short it.

I don't even have it on my watchlist anymore.

El_duderino said:

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I don't even have it on my watchlist anymore.

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It could drop 30% and still be somewhat overvalued

Hill08 said:

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El_duderino said:

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I don't even have it on my watchlist anymore.

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It could drop 30% and still be somewhat overvalued

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The amount of $500 call option volume on 1/16 expiration is staggering. I believe those positions are still open.

Hill08 said:

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El_duderino said:

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I don't even have it on my watchlist anymore.

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It could drop 30% and still be somewhat overvalued

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Its significantly undervalued

Right. I'm not looking at COIN as a derivative but as company more like a brokerage firm etc. Their institutional volume is increasing and they are adding more services etc.

techno-ag said:

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LMCane said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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From a traditional standpoint (excluding crypto's volatility) how does the stock COIN look to some of y'all?

---

for years everyone said "if you want to invest in BTC then buy BTC, don't buy a derivative of COIN"

but this week I heard Coinbase will start with more betting apps, like a Kalshi or Polymarket.

it may be that drives the millenials AWAY from crypto and into the betting markets- they are saying now potentially a trillion dollar market

the same young people buying crypto at a high risk will now move to betting on "events" instead.

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Dunno but I suspect they're competing with Robinhood which already has that sports betting stuff and Bitcoin and all the popular alt coins.

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exactly

that is where the trillion dollar figure comes from: RobinHood, Kalshi, Polymarket and Coinbase all offering gambling "prediction" markets

it does make sense to me that the same Chinese pumping Bitcoin will now pivot to betting on even more potential lucrative payouts in betting prediction markets.

I have a large amount of BTC and struggle with what I should do now. as young people continue to flock to Robinhood and Coinbase, they may be spending more funds in these gambling apps than in crypto- that would be extremely bearish.

Big article yesterday on MarketWatch and a corresponding one in the WSJ about how young investors are big into gambling. The S&P's steady rise can't compete with the dopamine for a chance at a 1000 to 1 gain or something like that.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/young-crypto-bros-love-to-gamble-and-youll-never-guess-where-they-get-the-money-b08d0cc5

VIX calls out to Feb anyone?

El Chupacabra said:

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techno-ag said:

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UNG mid 11s.

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Way too deep in this one and missed my opportunity...would love to rebuy here, but not adding to an already oversized position.

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Making a nice move today.

FJ43 said:

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VIX calls out to Feb anyone?

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Gonna sell everything and invest in VIX and WWR.

GeorgiAg said:

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FJ43 said:

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VIX calls out to Feb anyone?

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Gonna sell everything and invest in VIX and WWR.

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All in WWR.

GeorgiAg said:

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FJ43 said:

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VIX calls out to Feb anyone?

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Gonna sell everything and invest in VIX and WWR.

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One of those paying off big means the other is going in the complete opposite direction

Any thoughts on when the quantum bubble will pop? Garbage companies with zero proof of concept are being bid up to sky high market caps. Crazy out there.