EliteZags said:

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If the crash doesn't happen, how impossibly hard is it going to be to buy back in higher and higher and stop the missed gains from compounding on more and more missed gains

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I'm not necessarily waiting on a "crash", I'm expecting a 7-12% pullback though. The number of risks to the market that could spark a pullback far outweigh the catalysts to go continue parabolic.

EliteZags said:

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If the crash doesn't happen, how impossibly hard is it going to be to buy back in higher and higher and stop the missed gains from compounding on more and more missed gains

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Buy back into what? Progn doesn't buy SPX. He buys stocks on good setups. There will ALWAYS be another play.

FTAC2011 said:

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EliteZags said:

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If the crash doesn't happen, how impossibly hard is it going to be to buy back in higher and higher and stop the missed gains from compounding on more and more missed gains

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I have this exact thought. If it keeps going… when is the buy back in point?

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This is how we get blow off tops. Sidelined money capitulates. And since so many people are still sidelined we aren't in a bubble like some doomers like to espouse.

When we see what you accurately describes happening it's time to find the exit IMO

I have a friend that got 100% out and into mostly stable value and a little in the 2015 target fund thats got a lot of cash and bonds. He did this around the tariffs announced with the S&P around 5900 and he didn't get back in when it dropped ~20%. He's still out.

So he timed it wrong. I started moving to cash this week because it's what I believe is prudent. I guess we'll see what happens, but I'm content.

Retail has been trained to buy the dip. I wonder what it will take to reverse that and have a real crash.

I will say this. Trump and Co. will make sure it's all gas before the midterms. IMHO.

ProgN said:

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So he timed it wrong. I started moving to cash this week because it's what I believe is prudent. I guess we'll see what happens, but I'm content.

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I started last week too, taking profits mostly out of the Russell which i cleaned out and a little out of the S&P and more again out of the S&P yesterday

I dont think I'll ever invest in the Russell again unless rates have already gone up and there's reason to think they come back down soon.

zgolfz85 said:

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POWL

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?

jamey said:

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ProgN said:

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So he timed it wrong. I started moving to cash this week because it's what I believe is prudent. I guess we'll see what happens, but I'm content.

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I started last week too, taking profits mostly out of the Russell which i cleaned out and a little out of the S&P and more again out of the S&P yesterday

I dont think I'll ever invest in the Russell again unless rates have already gone up and there's reason to think they come back down soon.

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Saw something on x today.

Something like 40% of the Russell is profitable companies, up 30% since April. The unprofitable companies are up like 50%. That's why they call times like these "flying trash". It's a clear sign that this thing is driven purely by sentiment. It almost always reverses much harder than people think. Timing is the one where we'd all be rich if we knew. I see no short setups on Russell currently.

I also have a penny stock watchlist with hundreds of tickers. I peruse it from time to time looking for CLEAR technical setups with low risk. Have made some bangers and lost small $$ on many. But I love when I peek in and a large handful of them are trading between $4 and $10.. some even as high as $19. Either they were spacs that merged with something productive, or its just flying trash.

I saw something similar on the Russell and thats a big reason I got out.

It made more sense once upon a time when you might catch a Palantir but nowadays I think those companies go straight to large caps.


Side note, just saw a chart showing the Russell 2000 and Ethereum follow the same chart

jamey said:

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I saw something similar on the Russell and thats a big reason I got out.

It made more sense once upon a time when you might catch a Palantir but nowadays I think those companies go straight to large caps.


Side note, just saw a chart showing the Russell 2000 and Ethereum follow the same chart

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Look, if people on this thread are in mutual funds, ETFs, etc. then they should not be trying to time the market. I invest in individual stocks at percentages of the account that is a no no. Mutual fund and ETF investors should just leave their money alone.

Heine, OA, 30K, FJ, me, etc. have all said to remove emotion. Well right now the market is trading on only emotion. Look at the last time everyone was this juiced, before Deepseek news, and what did these stocks do. Even NVDA went to $90 from $160, and this was before the "liberation day" selloff in April.

Emotion is what's driving this parabolic move but something will spook the market. Retail has become too complacent and believe that they can't lose and have to ignore warning signs. They always say that they'll dump when the market turns, but they don't. They hold because when it turns most say 'well when it goes back to X price, then I'll sell'. When their positions don't go right back to their sell price then they hold and ride a lot of it down, then they're locked up. That's also emotion and will lead to mistakes.

Ride it to Valhalla, sell or post 'shoulda, woulda, couldas', I don't care. I want everyone to remove emotion and evaluate their holdings rationally and make the best decision for themselves and their families.

How much have you left in POWL? Are you trimming/pulling back on that one as well or still think it can go higher just based on the company itself and where it's at compared to competitors.

How do you consider taxes in your approach?

Just looking at my four largest positions, my gains are significant and selling would be an immediate 20% hit for taxes (blend of short and long term). 68%-500%+ gains in my top 5.

I don't think I have any losses in my portfolio that would provide any reasonable offset.

The only thing I've been doing is donating portions of my largest gains / holdings to charity. That way I get a deduction, lower my concentration, and avoid paying taxes.

I've been buying protective puts and selling calls - when those have works I keep that in cash.

Any other hedge or strategy to protect a portfolio and minimize taxes?

*CHINA TO TIGHTEN EXPORTS OF RARE EARTH AND RELATED TECH

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 9, 2025

ProgN said:

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jamey said:

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I saw something similar on the Russell and thats a big reason I got out.

It made more sense once upon a time when you might catch a Palantir but nowadays I think those companies go straight to large caps.


Side note, just saw a chart showing the Russell 2000 and Ethereum follow the same chart

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Look, if people on this thread are in mutual funds, ETFs, etc. then they should not be trying to time the market. I invest in individual stocks at percentages of the account that is a no no. Mutual fund and ETF investors should just leave their money alone.

Heine, OA, 30K, FJ, me, etc. have all said to remove emotion. Well right now the market is trading on only emotion. Look at the last time everyone was this juiced, before Deepseek news, and what did these stocks do. Even NVDA went to $90 from $160, and this was before the "liberation day" selloff in April.

Emotion is what's driving this parabolic move but something will spook the market. Retail has become too complacent and believe that they can't lose and have to ignore warning signs. They always say that they'll dump when the market turns, but they don't. They hold because when it turns most say 'well when it goes back to X price, then I'll sell'. When their positions don't go right back to their sell price then they hold and ride a lot of it down, then they're locked up. That's also emotion and will lead to mistakes.

Ride it to Valhalla, sell or post 'shoulda, woulda, couldas', I don't care. I want everyone to remove emotion and evaluate their holdings rationally and make the best decision for themselves and their families.

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I'm still 83% in the market/bonds. After allocating out of the Russell though, because it kinda sucks, there was no place i saw that looked like a good entry right now other than a stable fund earning ~2.5 to 3%%.

Considering how frothy the market is i right now Im good adding a little from the S&P fund for a total of 17%. That isnt that risky in the current environment imo

There's a difference between removing some risk and getting out of the market. But some of you need to go back to basics. Beer candles, RSI, MACD, EMA's, Keltners, Bollingers.. whatever it is that tells you a move is trending, above or below support, etc.. just focus on that.

Here's one of my current mega winners I caught before breakout. It's clearly in full on bull mode. You can ignore the EW count and all my other gibberish and just focus on the EMA's. Historically, this kind of move doesn't go on forever.. it comes back to reality. That can happen through time (mostly sideways consolidation), through price (large retracement), or both. The higher it goes, the harder its going to be to accept when reality decides to come and you missed out taking gains when they were plentiful.



I almost always sell into what looks to me like a 3rd wave. Because 4th waves can be treacherous, usually becoming sideways triangle type structures that frustrate, or deep retracements that test conviction. And that final 5th wave is never guaranteed. If it does happen, its often overlapping (testing conviction) and sometimes truncated in its high below where you think. The meat of the move is the 3rd wave. Catch that and book most the gains and you have new funds to deploy hoping to catch the next big move.

Find your system, master it, and stick to it. Form your rules and live by them religiously.

If it means anything, I'm not touching SOXL, TQQQ, or TNA right now with a ten foot pole.

Touchless said:

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How much have you left in POWL? Are you trimming/pulling back on that one as well or still think it can go higher just based on the company itself and where it's at compared to competitors.

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I've trimmed my POWL by half and have offset those gains by selling SMCI. I bought SMCI in the $790 area (pre-split). I think both companies are solid but I wanted to build up a large cash position and minimize my tax liability. I still have exposure in both but not at the levels that I've held for longer than I like to. I have no reservation going back into them if we do have a significant pullback.

cgh1999 said:

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How do you consider taxes in your approach?

Just looking at my four largest positions, my gains are significant and selling would be an immediate 20% hit for taxes (blend of short and long term). 68%-500%+ gains in my top 5.

I don't think I have any losses in my portfolio that would provide any reasonable offset.

The only thing I've been doing is donating portions of my largest gains / holdings to charity. That way I get a deduction, lower my concentration, and avoid paying taxes.

I've been buying protective puts and selling calls - when those have works I keep that in cash.

Any other hedge or strategy to protect a portfolio and minimize taxes?

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Congrats, and well done! If I were in your position then I'd just keep writing covered calls out to Nov/Dec at higher strikes and pocket the premium.

[UPDATE]

We recently posted a report on Marjorie Taylor Greene's purchase of Impinj stock, $PI.

It caught our eye, because it was a small company that no one in Congress had traded for years.

The stock has now risen 177% since her April 4th purchase. pic.twitter.com/tGJEnK7fIj

— Quiver Quantitative (@QuiverQuant) October 8, 2025

Not trying to bring politics in here, just calling out complete bull***** If anyone of us did this the SEC/IRS would know if we pocketed our lunch money in the 5th grade. IDGAF which side of the aisle does this criminal ****, throw all their asses in prison.

Checking in on the beer candles, and man.. they tell us the kind of history we are making. We are on 25 weeks in a row of no red beer candles. This is actually a generational move, both the length and price gains.



March-July 2023 had 19.
January through April 2019 had 16.
November 2017 through March 2017 had 18.
December 2011 through April 2012 had 17.

You have to go back to July 2007 through February 2008 to find more.. 30.



From that top to the big top was about 6 months and only 7.84% gain.



Same thing in 1999.. 30 weeks of straight up. Then 10 months and only 12.87% in overlapping frustrating fashion until the top in 2000.



To those saying stay in.. if history truly rhymes.. a 6 month period from mid-November to early summer next year that gains 8%-13% means the winners will be offset by some significant losers. And volatility will be around for most of it as it overlaps. This is why I think it's prudent to keep a large cash stockpile and ready to deploy into promising setups only with tight risk management. Lots of parallels to now and previous major topping patterns. And the dips after the top will feel normal until they give out in big way. Being exposed to the indexes with caution to the wind is just not something that seems wise too much longer. And there's no guarantee we get 6-10 months.

1961 was 24 weeks up, then 8 months to top but only gaining 5.7%.
And of course.. 1929 was 28 weeks up and immediate catastrophic reversal within two weeks that there was no way to avoid if you were fully exposed and thinking it was just a dip.

Edit: Just noticed there was some red in the 2000 example, so that one doesn't count (at least for the purposes of this exercise).

MRB10 said:

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My kid will never know how the number they get was invested. If I've done my job right, I'll show them the number and it'll be "gee thanks dad, I really appreciate you saving X for my benefit".

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Eff that, I'm printing this entire thread out and reading it to him day-by-day as he traverses his youth.

I trimmed most of my holdings by 50% or better to limit exposure. Still have 10 shares of AMD and 15 of NVDA, rest went to cash. I think the bubble will pop due the bottleneck cr4ated by lack of power infrastructure. Utilities and behind the meter generation cant keep up with the demand for data centers. Lots of cash will be deployed with nowhere to go. It won't be a green season.

Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

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El Chupacabra said:

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Unreal on AMD...glad I held on to some

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I accidentally held on to all of it. Guess it pays to be lucky instead of good.

Now when to unload...

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I unloaded half to get my initial buy in. The shares I have now are house money.

Let's revisit this a year from now and I suspect I'll have a better idea of whether I am proud of my decisions or not.

Accidental duplicate post

If you're looking to raise some cash but also aren't super doomsday bearish, then covered calls are the way. Sell them out to Nov/Dec, or if you're worried about taxable gains, write them out to Jan to put off the taxes another year. Or if you have dead losers, sell them to offset gains like Prog says. This is the way if you want to invest/trade shares, and actively manage things yourself. It is actually pretty damn easy and doesn't take up a ton of time.

SPY/QQQ is overbought but just chugging along steadily up holding major moving averages on every timescale. This can go on for a long time but when the music stops and volatility returns, then it will be abrupt, and weeks of gains will be gone in the blink of an eye. Or it could melt up another several weeks/months. Who knows. Just like my old French ski instructor would say "You're the boss of your skis (money), your skis (money) isn't the boss of you!"

IWM looks ready to roll for awhile, at least technically. Hard to be bearish imo.

If you can invest in shares and do options in non tax accounts like Roth IRA, then you can be really aggressive with covered calls and not worry about taxes. I used my Roth contribution a few years ago to buy 100 $AMD shares about $54. Yesterday I got filled for an 11/21 250 covered call for $12. I hope I get called out.

Proposition Joe said:

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MRB10 said:

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My kid will never know how the number they get was invested. If I've done my job right, I'll show them the number and it'll be "gee thanks dad, I really appreciate you saving X for my benefit".

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Eff that, I'm printing this entire thread out and reading it to him day-by-day as he traverses his youth.

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Probably a better education than most colleges today.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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MRB10 said:

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My kid will never know how the number they get was invested. If I've done my job right, I'll show them the number and it'll be "gee thanks dad, I really appreciate you saving X for my benefit".

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Eff that, I'm printing this entire thread out and reading it to him day-by-day as he traverses his youth.

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Probably a better education than most colleges today.

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My kids have their own brokerage accounts that for the most part mirror my own. They are going to be fully exposed to the how what why and when of their holdings.

Proposition Joe said:

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MRB10 said:

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My kid will never know how the number they get was invested. If I've done my job right, I'll show them the number and it'll be "gee thanks dad, I really appreciate you saving X for my benefit".

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Eff that, I'm printing this entire thread out and reading it to him day-by-day as he traverses his youth.

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Yep this is the right answer. The turning point in my financial life was attending a presentation on personal finance by a dude named Phil Sauer, in which he said (among other things) that most people simply cannot save enough to retire. You have to invest and put your money to work to have any hope of accumulating enough to retire comfortably someday

Been saying $WWR above $1.72 can open up a breakaway from the lengthy consolidation.

HOWEVER - If a lot of people bought below $1.20 PLEASE use covered calls out to Feb+ verses selling straight shares. You make more money and defer the tax consequence out to 2027!

PLUS it… https://t.co/NsI94mamto

— OA1 Disciplined Trading Service www.OA1Trading.com (@oldarmy1) October 9, 2025

If you sell WWR shares instead of using covered calls you are a twice fool.

Don't give leverage energy to any shorts. Use covered calls out to February or longer to defer taxes and not fight against your own longer positions!

Be smart.