Heineken-Ashi said:
TSM $206-$209 range and you buy it with stop at $202. Then you will sell between $225 and $230 before earnings. If it plays along leading up to it, the Friday or Monday before earnings you will buy Jan 31 or Feb 7 $200, $205, or $210 puts (wont know the best r/r until we get closer, if we get closer) looking for $195 by expiration. Hopefully we can make some money off this last push and then make a lot more money on the reversal while everyone else is looking in the wrong direction.
$209 was hit.
Zoom out. This is the cycle it is working on completing.
Notice that it is in the 5th wave. Also notice that the 5th wave is not as impulsive, with each move showing heavy volatility and overlap with fourth wave crossing into the territory of the first. That means it's an ending diagonal. I've discussed these a bunch recently. It means bulls are in control but they are failing to move the stock upward with the same force and are unable to stretch it upward before getting slammed back. So zooming in on that..
Not only is the entire 5th wave an ending diagonal, but the (c) wave inside of the 5th wave inside of the larger 5th is setting up as an ending diagonal. I foresaw this yesterday and told you to watch for $205-$209 region and we are here now. The overlap confirms it.
Why does this have me so convicted on both timing and direction? Because when ending diagonals complete they almost always reverse 75%-100% of their structure within the same timeframe that it took them to complete or quicker. For the smaller one, the trendline would have the next move up to $230 complete before earnings. If so, the reversal would take through the first days of February at the very longest, targeting $190-$195.
The larger ED that started back on Aug 5th would take through June and would target $130-$155.
So that's why I say go long here. If it fails to move up one more time, you get stopped for a small loss. But if the thesis plays out, you will gain $20 per share over the next week. And as that final top approaches, we want to position for the end of month reversal by buying puts that would profit handsomely on a reversal to $195, knowing that it could easily stretch lower. But we will want to grab those puts as early as this Friday as earnings volatility will pick up and options will get expensive into next week.
Stay tuned. This still has to go UP one more time before the plan to profit from the downside can be realized.