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25,823,259 Views | 235242 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Heineken-Ashi
zgolfz85
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AG
been a crickets type day from the stock market forever bull influencers today

glad I've been holding cash for these sales, but feels like we have a bigger and longer correction coming
aggies4life
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AG
flashplayer
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AG
Yeah kind of like AI because of the novel state of that capability.

I would say that too if I were him, but he probably has as much a clue about quantum computing as most the rest of us.
Dan Scott
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AG
EIX stock to watch with the California fire. Don't know the cause but if it's a utility this will tank
Talon2DSO
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AG
ProgN said:

Jensen Huang just threw a grenade on the quantum computing stocks at CES. They're getting hit AH.


Hope it doesn't kill MU momentum
ProgN
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Talon2DSO said:

ProgN said:

Jensen Huang just threw a grenade on the quantum computing stocks at CES. They're getting hit AH.


Hope it doesn't kill MU momentum
It's not, MU primed for big jump.
El_duderino
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Nope. He announced the 50 series are using MU for memory
Heineken-Ashi
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I am fully preparing for a potentially imminent drop of SLV into the $25's and possibly as low as $24.50. I would love for it to go higher, but as I outlined a couple weeks ago, I do believe power is coming. And I will be hedged for it and buying calls 1-3 months out as it happens.
El_duderino
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What do you mean power is coming?
Heineken-Ashi
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El_duderino said:

What do you mean power is coming?


Sorry, should say "lower".
aggies4life
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AG
Nvda has no long term plan or long term strategy

EnronAg
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AG
ooooofff, what the heck happened in pre market...woke up around 4:30 and saw markets up nicely, about half percent...and then get to work and see massive move down...middle east???
ProgN
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10 yr bond at 4.73%
Heineken-Ashi
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Heineken-Ashi said:

TSM $206-$209 range and you buy it with stop at $202. Then you will sell between $225 and $230 before earnings. If it plays along leading up to it, the Friday or Monday before earnings you will buy Jan 31 or Feb 7 $200, $205, or $210 puts (wont know the best r/r until we get closer, if we get closer) looking for $195 by expiration. Hopefully we can make some money off this last push and then make a lot more money on the reversal while everyone else is looking in the wrong direction.
$209 was hit.

Zoom out. This is the cycle it is working on completing.



Notice that it is in the 5th wave. Also notice that the 5th wave is not as impulsive, with each move showing heavy volatility and overlap with fourth wave crossing into the territory of the first. That means it's an ending diagonal. I've discussed these a bunch recently. It means bulls are in control but they are failing to move the stock upward with the same force and are unable to stretch it upward before getting slammed back. So zooming in on that..



Not only is the entire 5th wave an ending diagonal, but the (c) wave inside of the 5th wave inside of the larger 5th is setting up as an ending diagonal. I foresaw this yesterday and told you to watch for $205-$209 region and we are here now. The overlap confirms it.



Why does this have me so convicted on both timing and direction? Because when ending diagonals complete they almost always reverse 75%-100% of their structure within the same timeframe that it took them to complete or quicker. For the smaller one, the trendline would have the next move up to $230 complete before earnings. If so, the reversal would take through the first days of February at the very longest, targeting $190-$195.



The larger ED that started back on Aug 5th would take through June and would target $130-$155.



So that's why I say go long here. If it fails to move up one more time, you get stopped for a small loss. But if the thesis plays out, you will gain $20 per share over the next week. And as that final top approaches, we want to position for the end of month reversal by buying puts that would profit handsomely on a reversal to $195, knowing that it could easily stretch lower. But we will want to grab those puts as early as this Friday as earnings volatility will pick up and options will get expensive into next week.

Stay tuned. This still has to go UP one more time before the plan to profit from the downside can be realized.

giddings_ag_06
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AG
EnronAg said:

ooooofff, what the heck happened in pre market...woke up around 4:30 and saw markets up nicely, about half percent...and then get to work and see massive move down...middle east???


Idk, but I just saw the market is closed tomorrow for Carter. May play a role with a short week.
aggiebrad16
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AG
EnronAg said:

ooooofff, what the heck happened in pre market...woke up around 4:30 and saw markets up nicely, about half percent...and then get to work and see massive move down...middle east???
Heard something on CNBC this morning about Trump talking about emergency tariffs. Admittedly I wasn't paying that close attention so I have no further details.
BrokeAssAggie
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but reopens Friday, right?
EnronAg
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AG
looks like it's doing its best to shake off whatever spooked it around 5:30...had to be geopolitical...market has consistently shrugged off every geopolitical conflict/story over the past 2 years...
BucketofBalls99
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Hope you're right……we'll see!
giddings_ag_06
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AG
Yup
Heineken-Ashi
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If you never got in on MATH, you will likely have multiple chances ahead. But if you see $1.25, that's a good entry. I expect a couple more swings before the thesis really starts to play out and it moves strongly. My base blueprint has $1.20 - $1.30 range next, then a move over $2. If that happens as expected, there should be one more consolidation phase back down between $1.15 and $1.50. Could take weeks or months. Eventually, and I do think it will be sometime this year, it will break above $2.25 with force and be off to the races. Ultimately, as long as above $0.80, I'm expecting this choppy consolidation to continue below the last high. Below $0.80 and $0.65 must hold, at which point it would start a new consolidation pushing the timeline longer.
BrokeAssAggie
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in SPY $595 call 1/17 $3 entry
Imsodopey
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AG
IONQ down almost 40%. Other quantum stocks down to a lesser degree.

NVDA's CEO said yesterday that useful quantum computers are around twenty years away.

EDIT:: QTUM etf down around five percent.
Heineken-Ashi
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Imsodopey said:

ETF QTUM is up over 7%.

IONQ up around 24%
IONQ almost to my $44 target in a more direct manner with massive negative divergence. Would not be buying up here. Has all the signs of a news driven frenzy that could sell off and take months to year to get back to these levels. First support is $28.


flashplayer
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AG
Imsodopey said:

IONQ down almost 40%. Other quantum stocks down to a lesser degree.

NVDA's CEO said yesterday that useful quantum computers are around twenty years away.


So basically a few years after Blackwell powered AI becomes useful.
Heineken-Ashi
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In on TSM. Stop $202, target $228-$232. Check previous posts for thesis. This is part 1 of a multi-faceted play and a very strategic setup. This is not a "buy the dip and forget it" play.
Dan Scott
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AG
EIX down 6%
Philip J Fry
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AG
Lots of red today
Talon2DSO
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AG
Just doubled down on MU to drop my cost basis on those $110c I bought last month. Don't need to shoot the moon, just need a good bump. I should have sold yesterday morning when it went green.
Heineken-Ashi
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BLDE - Upside setup died if you followed me on lotto calls yesterday. Can't win them all.
bhanacik
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AG
I've been busy this morning. Had several alerts go off:

KO and PANW - bought shares and sold some puts here a couple weeks out for longer term holds.

In on H-A's TSM play with shares and will monitor.

Bought puts on PAYC and HD out a couple of weeks as I don't like the look of both of those charts.

Heineken-Ashi
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In on GWAV. Target $1.35 to $2. I have a wide stop down to $0.47. If you want less risk that might save you from a drop to $0.50 but might also miss out on that being a wider bottom, you can use $0.60 or $0.55.
Heineken-Ashi
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Buying Jan 15 IWM $225 calls. Looking for $227-$229 which would be 2-3x from here. Risky. Lotto size. Need to grab now because if it jumps much more you lose the good R/R.

BrokeAssAggie
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Let's go. I think she wants to rip…
Heineken-Ashi
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TAN - Solar ETF - Looks to have completed an ending diagonal down. Reversal should complete anytime prior to March 6. Target is $42-$44. I'm going to wait to see if we get $34 which would provide a nice reverse H&S setup.

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