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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:13a, 8/21/24
Brewmaster said:
SMCI

volume pump!
You need to post what you are seeing, because volume isn't doing anything it hasn't done every day prior at the same time.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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9:42a, 8/21/24
AG
Now we're cooking with gas.
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hedge
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9:42a, 8/21/24
Jobs report was horrible yet markets up, alright then
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to hedge • 9:44a, 8/21/24
AG
I'm assuming the logic is this strengthens the chances of a September rate cut.
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EnronAg
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9:45a, 8/21/24
AG
no kidding...I had no doubt that we'd hit S&P ATH at some point...but today??? after that BLS jobs report revision???
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nancydeedavis
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 9:46a, 8/21/24
Brian Earl Spilner said:
I'm assuming the logic is this strengthens the chances of a September rate cut.
Not only the chances but possibly a more aggressive cut than already priced in.
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EnronAg
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 9:47a, 8/21/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
I'm assuming the logic is this strengthens the chances of a September rate cut.
so bad news is good news again!!
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:50a, 8/21/24
AG


tales of 2 days, sellers yesterday at 9 am, buyers today at 9 and more just a few minutes ago. Also domed look yesterday, curling upward today.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:53a, 8/21/24
Brewmaster said:


tales of 2 days, sellers yesterday at 9 am, buyers today at 9 and more just a few minutes ago. Also domed look yesterday, curling upward today.
You're extremely in the weeds. Zoom out and you will see its a standard corrective pattern. Volume on Friday and Monday did more than its doing today.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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EnronAg
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9:53a, 8/21/24
AG
crazy shake outs going on right now...too late to load up on vix calls??
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Brian Earl Spilner
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9:53a, 8/21/24
AG
Aaaand there it is.
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Furlock Bones
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In reply to hedge • 9:54a, 8/21/24
AG
hedge said:
Jobs report was horrible yet markets up, alright then
priced in.
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hedge
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 9:55a, 8/21/24
Spoke too soon
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nancydeedavis
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 9:58a, 8/21/24
NOTAM issued by IRAN for 8/22 - 8/24.... spooked the market.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 10:02a, 8/21/24
AG
I'm just looking for a nice gain short term. it has continued to hold 600 while it consolidates. Is it consolidating for a move down or up? also higher low 3 days in a row (if this morning's low holds).
I'm willing to take a chance here with stop in place:

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cjo03
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10:12a, 8/21/24
AG



gotta love these artifacts from the '20/'21 days on some of the net free shares..
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 10:26a, 8/21/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
spud1910 said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
I'm starting to lean bearish on O&G for the short to mid term (6m to 1Y). The charts are setting up for a flush and the potential for upside is not at all looking impulsive. I'm going to button up my stops on everything I've entered of the past 6 months. Will likely only hang on to a few longer term holds. Will do a deeper dive over the weekend and try to lay out key levels on some of the bigger stocks.
Interested to see what you see on XOM if that is one you are looking at.
I'm specifically talking about Crude price. Just look at the crude futures chart. It's way more bearish looking than bullish. It's been troubling for a while but the more time it goes without breaking any sort of resistance, the worse my gut feeling gets. I'm not saying a tank is imminent. Just that I'm starting to get that feeling that I need to de-risk from the sector until it proves more to the upside.
For your input consideration on crude oil pricing:
As of 10:30a today, EIA increased their "estimate" of US oil production back up to "record high" production of 13.4M bpd this week. EIA reported the same record production number 2 weeks ago and then lowered it to 13.3M bpd last week. EIA reports "Cumulative Daily Average" oil production at 13.169M bpd this week. CDA has been "flat" for several months. Over the last 9 weeks, CDA has averaged 13.144M bpd. EIA's "estimate" of US oil production this week is 255,000 bpd above CDA reporting over the last 9 weeks..... EIA's "Current Week" US oil production "estimate" is the oil production number that financial media references and oil market participants consider for positioning. What the trade reacts to and what reality is are 2 different worlds. I am not going to change the crude oil traders positioning reaction to the Weekly Reports, but eventually the smart ones start to figure out and understand what's reported is not what's taking place. Hence, as I have stated previously, the Monthly Reports reflect the downward revisions (....and no one pays attention to them....) of the Weekly Rainbows & Unicorns Reports...that ultimately do not reconcile to any EIA published numbers.

For the TLDR crowd:
EIA reports Weekly that we are swimming in crude oil. Then later, EIA tries to adjust the books on the Monthly Reports reflecting that the swimming pool isn't as full as advertised.
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spud1910
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 10:27a, 8/21/24
AG
Thank you. Good to see you around.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 11:11a, 8/21/24
AG
SMCI 650 by tomorrow , bet lunch or beers on it?

It's a win win for me, lol
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brewmaster • 11:16a, 8/21/24
Brewmaster said:
SMCI 650 by tomorrow , bet lunch or beers on it?

It's a win win for me, lol
Considering that I have a target range on my chart running through Friday morning for $660-$715, no, I won't bet. Even though its butting up against significant resistance right now. But I'll still get lunch lol.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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GreasenUSA
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In reply to Brewmaster • 11:26a, 8/21/24
AG
Brewmaster said:
SMCI 650 by tomorrow , bet lunch or beers on it?

It's a win win for me, lol
I love it when we create our own derivatives market here!
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Heineken-Ashi
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11:29a, 8/21/24
Bought XHB Sep 20 $104 puts late last week for $1.00. Looking for $197-$202 range. Just averaged them down and also bought Sep 27 $110's looking for minimum $105. Beautiful bearish setup. Today hit the 61.8% retrace of the initial move down on 8/1. Premium paid is risk as always.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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12:00p, 8/21/24
AG
SMCI showing some strength now.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 12:49p, 8/21/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
Give me XOM $113-$114 range and I'll stab a short duration swing trade (2W-1M) with stop $110 and target $124
Order just went through. Not the most confident, but stop and target are set and I'm hands off unless it starts moving higher and I can adjust stop.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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1:28p, 8/21/24
AG
Feels like $630 is major resistance for SMCI.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 1:31p, 8/21/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Feels like $630 is major resistance for SMCI.
yep curling upward though, looks golden.

I was just about to post about ALB... it may want to break through 90's sooner rather than later. I took profits on previous calls, but going to try next week 90C. safer is out to Sept monthly.
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South Platte
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In reply to Brewmaster • 2:40p, 8/21/24
Finally positive on ALB. There were a few queasy moments last week.
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ProgN
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In reply to South Platte • 2:45p, 8/21/24
South Platte said:
Finally positive on ALB. There were a few queasy moments last week.
You're going to be fine in that one.
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South Platte
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In reply to ProgN • 3:18p, 8/21/24
ProgN said:
South Platte said:
Finally positive on ALB. There were a few queasy moments last week.
You're going to be fine in that one.
Yeah, I bought more in the 70's. I'm not afraid to will a stock to gains if I have to.

Not that they are even remotely related, but what do you think about EL? Like ALB, it has had a multi-year descent to what appears to be a bottom.
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bhanacik
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In reply to ProgN • 3:24p, 8/21/24
AG
ProgN said:
South Platte said:
Finally positive on ALB. There were a few queasy moments last week.
You're going to be fine in that one.


I went ahead and bought some shares today. Sold several puts earlier in the week as a hedge if it went lower - looks like I'll pocket that premium, which is good outcome. May look at selling additional puts on any retrace back into the 70's.
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ProgN
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In reply to South Platte • 3:40p, 8/21/24
South Platte said:
ProgN said:
South Platte said:
Finally positive on ALB. There were a few queasy moments last week.
You're going to be fine in that one.
Yeah, I bought more in the 70's. I'm not afraid to will a stock to gains if I have to.

Not that they are even remotely related, but what do you think about EL? Like ALB, it has had a multi-year descent to what appears to be a bottom.
If the economy slows down as anticipated, then $EL is still a falling knife. Let it base for awhile.
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Quacked
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In reply to South Platte • 4:12p, 8/21/24
I started slowly purchasing ALB back in January at 122. Averaged it down to 93$. Prepared to buy more if it falls back
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Quacked • 4:52p, 8/21/24
AG
Quacked said:
I started slowly purchasing ALB back in January at 122. Averaged it down to 93$. Prepared to buy more if it falls back
I expect it will be 93 pretty soon - that's the next key area support / resistance wise.

and in Prog I trust
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El_duderino
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In reply to Brewmaster • 5:13p, 8/21/24
That's what I have. Broke through the $87 level and next target to the upside is $93-$94. Downside target to bounce off of is $76-$77
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Brian Earl Spilner
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5:18p, 8/21/24
AG
TNA $42 target just hit AH.
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