ProgN said:
Golf1 said:
I really wasn't expecting a gap up overnight. I feel like like we usually run on days before FOMC but with possible trump news today and potential 50 bps i wouldn't be shocked to get back in the 392-393 area of spy
If Jpow raised 50 then the fed is deliberately trying to crush the banking sector. He shouldn't even raise 25 tomorrow but his pride won't let him pullback.
I'm buying puts - even if he only raises 25bps, he's going to be hawkish.
If they don't make a strong statement soon about protecting community/regional banks, you're going to see pain. Lots of pain. The amount of debt that needs to be refinanced (from all the construction over the last 5 years) is massive. The proforma doesn't work at todays interest rates. Even though occupancy and rents are good, the math doesn't work. I think Banks generally underwrote things well and should be protected from significant loss, but cash flow is going to be crushed.
Banks have been fighting for liquidity for months, even before SVB. The syndicated loan market is drying up which will make it harder for all companies to borrow.
I'm as big of a risk on / bull investor as there is. I'm taking this pop as an opportunity to prune and raise cash. I'm normally 1-3% cash - hope to be 20%+ by weeks end.