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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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4:21p, 2/23/23
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Does anyone else find it concerning all the talking heads on CNBC are talking about putting cash into Treasuries over S&P500 for the next year?

The fact that these money managers are talking about putting funds into bonds over the market gives me a little heart burn.... But maybe it's just me.
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Philip J Fry
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5:05p, 2/23/23
AG
Depending on the return, it's kind of a no brainer with the recession looming.
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Ag CPA
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In reply to Red Pear Luke (BCS) • 6:25p, 2/23/23
AG
Seems like every time I tune in (which has become rare unless there is a Fed meeting or some other news event)) Tom Lee is on saying that everything is fine, the Fed is going to pivot and we are going to hit 4800 by the end of the year.

Of course he predicted that last year as well…
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FJ43
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In reply to 59 South • 6:55p, 2/23/23
59 South said:
took a SPX 4000 call for tomorrow at $12.50, will hopefully stop at break even + (started at $10 stop), looking for $15-18 ish.


My bro. He's alive. Good to see you chime in.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Boy Named Sue
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8:10p, 2/23/23
AG
I need help with setting stop losses. I bought calls and puts today that were good ideas, in line with what ended up happening, but 9 out of 10 (literally) sold at my stop loss before reversing for what would have been big gains.

I realize there won't be a general rule, and that it'll depend on volatility and volume. But as the day went on I adjusted from 15% to 20 to 25, but still got stopped out over and over.

I feel like entry points were solid, based on the fact that the trends I saw developing generally panned out. Are my pain tolerances just too low?

I wish I had charts to illustrate it. Maybe I just got abused by pros "taking my paper" like 30k says
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techno-ag
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8:19p, 2/23/23
AG
This was on WSB tonight. Interesting.

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FJ43
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 8:26p, 2/23/23
Boy Named Sue said:
I need help with setting stop losses. I bought calls and puts today that were good ideas, in line with what ended up happening, but 9 out of 10 (literally) sold at my stop loss before reversing for what would have been big gains.

I realize there won't be a general rule, and that it'll depend on volatility and volume. But as the day went on I adjusted from 15% to 20 to 25, but still got stopped out over and over.

I feel like entry points were solid, based on the fact that the trends I saw developing generally panned out. Are my pain tolerances just too low?

I wish I had charts to illustrate it. Maybe I just got abused by pros "taking my paper" like 30k says
Go back to today's chart and whatever time frame you were trading on. Look at your trade time entry and exits. Make notes on your chart using the tools at those exact times.

Now back out to 1 hour, 4 hour, daily, etc and look at SRs. You trade to support and resistance. Intraday scalping is about execution. Get the meat off the trade and leave the buns behind. Net money.

Not sure how much you can manage the trade but it's possible you're trying to apply scalping mentality to a swing trade.

Once you do that you will be able to visualize where you could have improved.

Years ago this was a method I used over and over to memorialize my mistakes.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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lobwedgephil
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 8:30p, 2/23/23
Boy Named Sue said:
I need help with setting stop losses. I bought calls and puts today that were good ideas, in line with what ended up happening, but 9 out of 10 (literally) sold at my stop loss before reversing for what would have been big gains.

I realize there won't be a general rule, and that it'll depend on volatility and volume. But as the day went on I adjusted from 15% to 20 to 25, but still got stopped out over and over.

I feel like entry points were solid, based on the fact that the trends I saw developing generally panned out. Are my pain tolerances just too low?

I wish I had charts to illustrate it. Maybe I just got abused by pros "taking my paper" like 30k says
You can't base a stop on a percentage like that, that is a meaningless number that only matters to you. Your stop needs to be based on support/resistance. You enter trade where your stop is an acceptable loss to you, if it is too much, you don't take that trade.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 9:33p, 2/23/23
AG
Boy Named Sue said:
I need help with setting stop losses. I bought calls and puts today that were good ideas, in line with what ended up happening, but 9 out of 10 (literally) sold at my stop loss before reversing for what would have been big gains.

I realize there won't be a general rule, and that it'll depend on volatility and volume. But as the day went on I adjusted from 15% to 20 to 25, but still got stopped out over and over.

I feel like entry points were solid, based on the fact that the trends I saw developing generally panned out. Are my pain tolerances just too low?

I wish I had charts to illustrate it. Maybe I just got abused by pros "taking my paper" like 30k says


I got some great advice from 30k on this.

The next few times you approach the same setup, set your entry as a limit order at or just above your stop.

You'll either get a phenomenal fill or miss the trade but both options are better than being stopped out.



Edit to add that lob wedge and FJ's advice is great… like Lob said, stops should be set based on your setup, not an arbitrary %
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irish pete ag06
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11:45p, 2/23/23
AG


Farmer, this you?
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 4:19a, 2/24/23
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AG
Looks like I need to buy more XLE then in the near future. I've got some 40% of my Roth just sitting in cash.
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txaggie_08
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In reply to techno-ag • 4:36a, 2/24/23
AG
techno-ag said:
This was on WSB tonight. Interesting.


I don't like this. Would make me think when the rug gets pulled these get hit hardest?
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 6:47a, 2/24/23
AG
lobwedgephil said:
Boy Named Sue said:
I need help with setting stop losses. I bought calls and puts today that were good ideas, in line with what ended up happening, but 9 out of 10 (literally) sold at my stop loss before reversing for what would have been big gains.

I realize there won't be a general rule, and that it'll depend on volatility and volume. But as the day went on I adjusted from 15% to 20 to 25, but still got stopped out over and over.

I feel like entry points were solid, based on the fact that the trends I saw developing generally panned out. Are my pain tolerances just too low?

I wish I had charts to illustrate it. Maybe I just got abused by pros "taking my paper" like 30k says
You can't base a stop on a percentage like that, that is a meaningless number that only matters to you. Your stop needs to be based on support/resistance. You enter trade where your stop is an acceptable loss to you, if it is too much, you don't take that trade.

Also try buying a little more time, it dampens the options price swings a bit
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Rebel_Lonestar
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 7:22a, 2/24/23
AG
Instead of using a stop limit or % as a stop loss try using candles, S/R, or EMAs as your stops (I will set a stop a few ticks above or below the ema since it's a lagging indicator). We all have been in trades where we correctly identified a set up and would have been right if we stayed in the trade but have gotten shaken out of the tree.

Try downsizing to lotto size and don't use a stop to help you get a better feel how a certain contract moves.

Someone on this board had a good idea of whenever you are about to enter into a trade, set your entry price 25% lower. This will give you a better r/r or you just don't get filled. I still struggle with the latter and have to remind myself I don't have to be in every trade
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Boy Named Sue
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7:31a, 2/24/23
AG
I've been on TexAgs since before the great server crash of '99, and this is the most helpful, informative, and entertaining thread I've seen during that time. Thanks y'all, very much.
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FishrCoAg
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In reply to Rebel_Lonestar • 7:32a, 2/24/23
AG
To expand on the last paragraph, I like to sell puts at the price I want to buy at, or just a tick above. That way if I don't get the stock I still pocket the premium. Learned the hard way to only do that with stocks i an comfortable owning in case they take a dump before expiration
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 7:34a, 2/24/23
AG
irish pete ag06 said:



The next few times you approach the same setup, set your entry as a limit order at or just above your stop.

You'll either get a phenomenal fill or miss the trade but both options are better than being stopped out.

This is my interpretation of what fj calls letting the price come to you. No fomo, there will always be another trade
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ProgN
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 7:45a, 2/24/23
Boy Named Sue said:
I've been on TexAgs since before the great server crash of '99, and this is the most helpful, informative, and entertaining thread I've seen during that time. Thanks y'all, very much.



Best thread on TA by far. Even when swamped with other work, I check it out multiple times daily.
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Spoony Love
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7:48a, 2/24/23
AG
Not stock related and I may be late to this game but if you have a Netflix account, Cunk on Earth is smuggishly funny. Philomena Cunk is one of the great characters in comedy.

Now back to your regular scheduled program. Overnight action has me thinking a reverse to SPY 400 is in the makes for today. 400 may be ambitious but overnight has it close to a big level from what I see. 395 has seemed to set off buying volume.
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sts7049
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8:06a, 2/24/23
AG
almost to 6k pages. who's gonna post celebration tits?
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 8:08a, 2/24/23
AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:
lobwedgephil said:
Boy Named Sue said:
I need help with setting stop losses. I bought calls and puts today that were good ideas, in line with what ended up happening, but 9 out of 10 (literally) sold at my stop loss before reversing for what would have been big gains.

I realize there won't be a general rule, and that it'll depend on volatility and volume. But as the day went on I adjusted from 15% to 20 to 25, but still got stopped out over and over.

I feel like entry points were solid, based on the fact that the trends I saw developing generally panned out. Are my pain tolerances just too low?

I wish I had charts to illustrate it. Maybe I just got abused by pros "taking my paper" like 30k says
You can't base a stop on a percentage like that, that is a meaningless number that only matters to you. Your stop needs to be based on support/resistance. You enter trade where your stop is an acceptable loss to you, if it is too much, you don't take that trade.

Also try buying a little more time, it dampens the options price swings a bit


This is also great advice.
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ProgN
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In reply to Spoony Love • 8:16a, 2/24/23
Spoony Love said:
Not stock related and I may be late to this game but if you have a Netflix account, Cunk on Earth is smuggishly funny. Philomena Cunk is one of the great characters in comedy.

Now back to your regular scheduled program. Overnight action has me thinking a reverse to SPY 400 is in the makes for today. 400 may be ambitious but overnight has it close to a big level from what I see. 395 has seemed to set off buying volume.


If you like stand up comics then watch 'Brad Williams' "Fun Size" on Amazon Prime. I LMAO watching it and if you do too, Brad will be at Cap City Comedy Club at the Domain in Austin October 6-7, 2023. Buy tickets directly from Cap City Comedy Club instead of ticketmaster because they're WAY cheaper. My lady and I are going 10/7 10pm showing.
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Spoony Love
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In reply to ProgN • 8:18a, 2/24/23
AG
Oh, tempting. I'm putting it on my watch list and that time of year may be a good time to get away from the farm and enjoy a night with the lady.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 8:18a, 2/24/23
Nope, not me. That guy is way too smart. I'm a slow learner with minimal retention. I do like his last statement.

Quote:
Either tech companies are still too expensive, or energy stocks remain a bargain… or both.

^^^ Both. ^^^

I was out yesterday. 14 inches of snow. I do my own snow removal work otherwise I'd get zero meaningful exercise in the winter. Do my neighbors too - they are 90. Don't want them moving away to assisted care. I do as much as I can for them. I want them around as long as possible. Great neighbors. Never know who/what the next bunch moving in will be like .... I shed some pounds yesterday but not enough to get my wife to chase me around the house.

XOM - I'm accumulating over next 4 to 6 weeks. Testing 50 Day Moving Average is/are good entry points.
-China is reopening - driving crude demand
-China is on a world-wide crude buying spree - all markets - US, ME, Russia
-Russia announced production cuts in Feb will actually take place in March and at higher rates
-Russia to cut western port exports 25%
-Oil Price reporting 10 Super Tankers heading to US ports to load in March - equivalent of 20 million barrels (each tanker 2 million barrels)
-EIA continues to report large builds (monster builds) every Wednesday than comes back later and makes monster adjustments to the monthly reports. Goes unreported by media.
-This is build season heading into driving season. Considering the first 4 points above, we will be short (we are short now and I've been pot banging that for a long time and the head pressure needle is moving to the red zone)
-The SPR being drained is not good. Me complaining about JB/Administration is not going to stop his boneheaded decisions, but rest assured pump prices are going up. ($10 per gallon,...give it to me) All JB did is weaken this country and put us in a National Security Risk.
-Green Energy pundits are doing everything in there power to kill fossil fuels.
-Make no mistake - XOM leadership had a jump on this political and economic events and they positioned themselves "perfectly". It's really amazing, unbelievable and awe inspiring. JB will have to hire a new set of think tanks to outsmart these XOM guys.
-XOM could be a debt free company if they wanted to be. Those P/E and Earnings forecasts will all be changing in a few months. Maybe XOM will get a Credit Rating Update, its only been over 2 years. Again, can't make a fossil fuel company look attractive.
-Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield came out with $100 crude by the end of 2023. That's big coming from a fellow that is predominantly bearish crude.
-Things will look staid (XOM and energy sector) for a few weeks more. By the time we start knocking on the door of driving season, buckle up.
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irish pete ag06
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8:19a, 2/24/23
AG
2 times we've touched the daily 21 EMA and wicked off of it pretty hard


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wanderer
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8:26a, 2/24/23
SPY now just under MT at 396.54 (MT from 12/22 to 2/2)
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ProgN
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In reply to Spoony Love • 8:26a, 2/24/23
Spoony Love said:
Oh, tempting. I'm putting it on my watch list and that time of year may be a good time to get away from the farm and enjoy a night with the lady.
Disclaimer: NSFW 'DO NOT WATCH that at WORK' (unless you want to get fired)

That said, you'll laugh your ass off.
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Boy Named Sue
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8:36a, 2/24/23
AG
Expiring XOM 111Cs are 10 cents right now. Betting that's easy money

(Edit: I bought 110s for $0.32)
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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8:47a, 2/24/23
Any new news moving markets today or just bears jumping in below the 50-emas? This is wild selling all of a sudden.
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Philip J Fry
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8:50a, 2/24/23
AG
Maybe the market is starting to believe the fed really is going for a .50 point hike next month.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:02a, 2/24/23
AG
Have been occupied this morning. I'm going over the pond and need to get ready to go.

This is institutional selling.
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Ag CPA
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:05a, 2/24/23
AG
Probably the main driver:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/key-fed-inflation-measure-rose-0point6percent-in-january-more-than-expected.html

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ProgN
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:06a, 2/24/23
Bob Knights Paper Hands said:
Any new news moving markets today or just bears jumping in below the 50-emas? This is wild selling all of a sudden.
PCE came in hot this morning and that's one of the economic indicators that the Fed watches very closely.
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South Platte
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9:12a, 2/24/23
Hope the ATLX crew sold yesterday.
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Spoony Love
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In reply to Spoony Love • 9:18a, 2/24/23
AG
Ew, we're going the wrong way. Back to recommending shows should be my action for today.
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