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22,948,025 Views | 227827 Replies | Last: 4 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:31p, 11/25/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
a second possibility to consider.



Daily trend is up but slowing. But I need to see another candle or two because I'm not going to put a lot of weight on a candle that doesn't break the previous candles high on the lowest volume day of the year.

Zooming out, nat gas got the correction it needed to base and explode higher. Whether that move is started or not yet really doesn't matter to me. We're far closer to a bottom than any potential top. But we are definitely heated in the short term. I'm waiting for an entry point.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 11:34p, 11/25/22
AG
If you'll humor me on this. I don't use Heiken Ashi candles and never have. I get the basic premise of it, but just have never used.

What is your philosophy for how you identify trend with it?

In theory you want to see the last two days right?


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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:45p, 11/25/22
For up - I want no lower wicks and multiple candles finishing above previous candle. Two in a row can provide an entry, but usually have to shift from daily to hourly to perform maintenance and set stops. 3 candle uptrend is ideal.

If you get a massive candle far above the previous.. good chance the next one will either be a brake check (slowing monentum) or straight reversal. A candle that still shows trend but doesn't make a new high is a caution candle. Not necessarily an exit, but time to watch closely and be ready.

If at any point you get a wick counter to the trend or a double wick, it's an indecision and bull/bear battle. Better to let them hash it out.

Decent uptrend that is followed by either indecision or reversal that doesn't retrace more than 50% of trend.. and then re-emerges with uptrend, great place for entry. Don't exit until you see a lower wick.

Can get really good when you start to notice nuance of moves and can switch to different timeframe candles and start stacking trends.

There will be a ton of failed setups. 2-3 candle uptrend. Boom. Enter. Next candle is indecision. Exit. Try again. Same thing. Try again. Trend reverses. Wait for setup. Try again. Indecision. Exit. Try again. Boom. Finally caught it.

“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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Heineken-Ashi
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11:47p, 11/25/22
In your chart above, I'm a strong hold. Need more then 3 candles to enter. That setups shows that nobody has control. Bulls get a trend and lose it. Bears can't form a trend. Bulls keep losing it.

Not worth my effort. Move on to something showing a potential trend.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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Philip J Fry
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12:35a, 11/26/22
AG


Thought this chart was enlightening. It compares returns if you hold a position overnight vs day trading. Pretty clear it shows that most of the movement happens after hours.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 12:47a, 11/26/22
AG
Philip J Fry said:


Thought this chart was enlightening. It compares returns if you hold a position overnight vs day trading. Pretty clear it shows I that most of the movement happens after hours.


100%. Intraday is for short term trading only.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 12:48a, 11/26/22
AG
I think it also shows why I read day trading is so hard. You have such a small margin of error to deal with.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:53a, 11/26/22
AG
Intraday is very very hard.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:55a, 11/26/22
AG
I look for this exact setup for intraday.


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FJ43
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6:57a, 11/26/22
Noticed Redler retweeted this.

Double top? Notice what looks to be RSI on top.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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techno-ag
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:24a, 11/26/22
AG
FJ43 said:
Noticed Redler retweeted this.

Double top? Notice what looks to be RSI on top.

Thanks for sharing that. Yeah I wouldn't doubt it's a double top, going down in December. But then, I'm a pessimist about this market.
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FJ43
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9:05a, 11/26/22

That's a crazy SKEW gap up. Typically shooting stars on SKEW are followed by a market pullback days to week out. Was on a half trading day of the holiday weekend though so have to keep an eye on.


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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12:49p, 11/26/22

Ok now we're ready. Decided it was time for a new rally hat to get us through about March. Bull or bear we're ready.

Giddy up!


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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irish pete ag06
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 1:00p, 11/26/22
AG
I saw that. Crazy. Made me wanna put $100 in a small account and do this with a few TQQQ shares
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oldarmy1
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5:41p, 11/26/22
AG
Help my Bama buddy understand Gary Danielson's Homerism for all things Bama.

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FJ43
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 5:42p, 11/26/22
Done
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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AgEng06
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 5:51p, 11/26/22
AG
Voted, and yes Gary is almost an unbearable Bama homer.
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irish pete ag06
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9:52p, 11/26/22
AG
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FJ43
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 9:58p, 11/26/22
irish pete ag06 said:


All I want is a volatility spike to 30 in the next 48-72 hours.

Not asking for much. But a guy can hope.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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irish pete ag06
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In reply to FJ43 • 10:22p, 11/26/22
AG
What are you eye balling to play when that potentially shows itself?
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FJ43
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 10:30p, 11/26/22
irish pete ag06 said:
What are you eye balling to play when that potentially shows itself?


Already have. Been scaling in VIX calls for Dec monthly on the VIX suppression.

If those (SKEW, macros and VIX) end up correlating this time around there will be plenty to play short on.

But we will have to watch price and volume. I still think we can go a little higher before that happens.

SKEW shooting stars like that usually have a market pullback days to about a week later. Chart wise anyway if you overlay them.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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irish pete ag06
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In reply to FJ43 • 10:37p, 11/26/22
AG
Nice. I've been layering into VIX Januarys'
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FJ43
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 10:48p, 11/26/22
irish pete ag06 said:
Nice. I've been layering into VIX Januarys'
Very quick and rough. Skew with ES overlay

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to FJ43 • 10:52p, 11/26/22
FJ43 said:
irish pete ag06 said:
Nice. I've been layering into VIX Januarys'
Very quick and rough. Skew with ES overlay



Appreciate this. I feel vindicated for buying those VIX calls two weeks back out to February. Looks like need to load up some OTM SPY puts soon out a few weeks.

Looks like reversal may be close indeed. Curious to know if Santa will be visiting this year or not.
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FJ43
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 10:55p, 11/26/22
It's possible for a pullback. Tricky trading. A few indicators do align for it but nothing is certain regardless.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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techno-ag
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4:38p, 11/27/22
AG
Tuesday - Consumer Confidence Index Report
Wednesday - GDP Report
Friday - Monthly Jobs Report

Any one of the three perceived as negative could spark a sell off, I bet.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to FJ43 • 5:00p, 11/27/22
Oh yeah! Now we're talkin' mister. Good looking hat!

I have a Stetson El Campeon 50X Silverbeaver and been satisfied with; however, I took the plunge last week for an El Presidente 100X Mist Grey, we'll see how it compares. But I tell you, I got a Resistol Diamond Horseshoe 15X Mist Grey that's been with me for many decades and has never let me down....had a lot of luck with that hat.

No such thing as too many hats, boots or buckles. Just sayin'..
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FJ43
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 5:14p, 11/27/22
Sounds like we both have the same problem. You've got good taste in hats! I think I'm the same boat. Have nice Stetsons and Resistols but it's the old beat up worn one that keeps heading out the door.

Totally agree there is no such thing as too many. It's kinda like a good rifle. There's always the one you should have bought.

Mrs FJ doesn't even blink when it's hat time.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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techno-ag
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In reply to techno-ag • 7:17p, 11/27/22
AG
techno-ag said:
Tuesday - Consumer Confidence Index Report
Wednesday - GDP Report
Friday - Monthly Jobs Report

Any one of the three perceived as negative could spark a sell off, I bet.
Also J-Pow speaks Wed. @ 12:30 central.
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wanderer
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7:34p, 11/27/22
Futures (es & nq) down a decent bit this evening. Oil down even more
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Madmarttigan
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7:44p, 11/27/22
AG
Only thing I wonder… everyone expects the Spy to reject off that line I wonder if we get a small pump fake over it first to burn some put holders before a possible crash Thursday.
Formerly tv1113
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wanderer
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 7:52p, 11/27/22
Or we never make it there to allow everyone to get in what seems seems like a great place to go short.
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to techno-ag • 8:08p, 11/27/22
techno-ag said:
Tuesday - Consumer Confidence Index Report
Wednesday - GDP Report
Friday - Monthly Jobs Report

Any one of the three perceived as negative could spark a sell off, I bet.
Someone already mentioned Powell, but him Wed and PCE Thursday morning will be movers.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:45p, 11/27/22
AG
Tomorrow is likely a down day, but my sense is we don't get a huge move. They'll wait for Powell for that.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:48p, 11/27/22
AG
USO will probably open near $64.

Don't be dumb but I think there is a possibility of a mean reversion up.
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