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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Let's power down here. I need my XSP puts to payout more than I'm losing on SPX lotto calls. Why not 3720, why not today.
Triple_Bagger
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The market delivered the red wave everyone was looking for
LitreBoy
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AG
Triple_Bagger said:

The market delivered the red wave everyone was looking for
yikes
Romello
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Triple_Bagger said:

The market delivered the red wave everyone was looking for


Too soon.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
DIS down to its 2020 crash levels.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Sponsor
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:



Wow. Also, not surprised.
So its rumored that Tom Brady and his ex put a substantial piece of their $650MM net worth into FTX

I am not sure how rumored vs reported. All the articles I tried to read put a number around $400-600MM invested in FTX.

Not a good year for Tom. Definitely his mid-life crisis
Towns03
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AG
Triple_Bagger said:

The market delivered the red wave everyone was looking for


EGOC is up 30%
BaylorSpineGuy
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This may be the exit strategy for Farmer. Ghost of AustinAg whispering that whichever company names a sports arena/stadium, the company goes on to puke.

Sam Bankman to be hired to pull tickets at the door or sell popcorn.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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BaylorSpineGuy said:



This may be the exit strategy for Farmer. Ghost of AustinAg whispering that whichever company names a sports arena/stadium, the company goes on to puke.

Sam Bankman to be hired to pull tickets at the door or sell popcorn.
Thanks for posting that! I didn't know.

On a side note, that has to be the biggest FU signal to Gov Gavin. He/they (State of CA) is making it so difficult for Big Oil to operate in CA, XOM is selling the assets there. XOM having their name on that arena is a big flag for Gov Gavin to have to see and hear for a long time.

As for the naming rights correlating to the business future performance, I didn't know that tidbit either.

DOUBLE Thanks!

On another side note, even with crude coming down today, the 3-2-1 Crack Spread still points to a mammoth Q4 for XOM.

ETA: 5:42pm I don't do Twitter. I clicked it and I guess it's fake news per the comments.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:



This may be the exit strategy for Farmer. Ghost of AustinAg whispering that whichever company names a sports arena/stadium, the company goes on to puke.

Sam Bankman to be hired to pull tickets at the door or sell popcorn.
Thanks for posting that! I didn't know.

On a side note, that has to be the biggest FU signal to Gov Gavin. He/they (State of CA) is making it so difficult for Big Oil to operate in CA, XOM is selling the assets there. XOM having their name on that arena is a big flag for Gov Gavin to have to see and hear for a long time.

As for the naming rights correlating to the business future performance, I didn't know that tidbit either.

DOUBLE Thanks!

On another side note, even with crude coming down today, the 3-2-1 Crack Spread still points to a mammoth Q4 for XOM.

ETA: 5:42pm I don't do Twitter. I clicked it and I guess it's fake news per the comments.


Lol maybe it's a joke after all haha! I can't find any independent source to corroborate but they don't outright call it a joke either lol
BlueTaze
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Fade alert- Cramer warns growth stocks could see horror with CPI report tmrw.

ProgN
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Red Pear BCS Luke said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:



Wow. Also, not surprised.
So its rumored that Tom Brady and his ex put a substantial piece of their $650MM net worth into FTX

I am not sure how rumored vs reported. All the articles I tried to read put a number around $400-600MM invested in FTX.

Not a good year for Tom. Definitely his mid-life crisis
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-11408011/Tom-Brady-risks-losing-ENTIRE-investment-FTX-exchange-plunged-fortune-crash.html

Damn, his personal life is nightmare right now.
ProgN
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Ok guys, it's no secret that I know absolutely dick about crypto because it never interested me. However, if there's money to be made, at what level do you believe would be a good time to scale into BTC? I'm not going heavy, but just parking some there in the event it comes back into favor. I was thinking I'd dip my toe in when it gets below 10K. I know we have some in here that are very familiar with the cryptoverse and I'd love to hear your advice. TIA
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I think it'll bottom out at about the price of two Beanie Babies and a tulip bulb. I'd rather throw folding money at the ponies than buy bit coin, but I'm biased.
ProgN
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Bob Knights Paper Hands said:

I think it'll bottom out at about the price of two Beanie Babies and a tulip bulb. I'd rather throw folding money at the ponies than buy bit coin, but I'm biased.
I'm biased too because I fear countries will outlaw transactions of BTC when they launch their insidious digital currencies. However, parking a fraction in it in case there is another wave could prove profitable. It's more of small long term trade, not an investment. So many youngins, that know everything lol, are true believers. I'm just looking for the wave.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Yep. I was talking to the wife last night about this, wondering if losing all this money was part of the reason for the divorce.

I can't imagine me personally handling such a big portion of my net worth once you have generational money like that. I can't even imagine that once retirement money is achieved. So crazy putting it such an ultra high risk asset. It makes me sad for him and his kids
ProgN
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Bob Knights Paper Hands said:

Yep. I was talking to the wife last night about this, wondering if losing all this money was part of the reason for the divorce.

I can't imagine me personally handling such a big portion of my net worth once you have generational money like that. I can't even imagine that once retirement money is achieved. So crazy putting it such an ultra high risk asset. It makes me sad for him and his kids
Agreed and the FTX implosion makes more sense for a divorce than him just coming back to football for another season, plus no rumors of infidelity. I bet a large portion of that money was what she has earned and probably hesitant to risk it, but begrudgingly went along with it.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Bob Knights Paper Hands said:

I think it'll bottom out at about the price of two Beanie Babies and a tulip bulb. I'd rather throw folding money at the ponies than buy bit coin, but I'm biased.


I think you're close on the price! Tulips didn't go to zero, but you could buy a house with one in 1617!

Frankly, it's just computer code. It's been allowed to grow as an asset class due to lax monetary policy which has heightened inequality. Young people taking chances on risk assets since they are so far behind the boomers at the same stage in life.

Crypto is a scam, IMO. My wife's uncle got me in some, but I exited it all about 10 months ago. 6 months too late sadly :-(.
Brewmaster
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AG
I think scalping it is the only way, until it and the economy show real signs of recovery. I haven't played it directly, but most opinions I've seen on those that have played it are quite bearish on a bottom (some have 2 to 3k even). It's basically in kill bag holder mode (and anyone that thought it was an "investment opportunity". I also don't see any real big volume on the buy side.

I'm long MARA puts and put spreads too, so probably have a bias there!

BSG above also put some of my thoughts to words better than I could!
M4 Benelli
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Welp, atleast Brady has a lucrative broadcasting career he can fall back on. If I were TB I wouldn't trust my last PF Chang Fortune Cookie, let alone sizable wealth to the steerings of this sloven vegamatic. Cat's hair looks like he spent two hours arguing with a taser. Couple that with sleeping 4 hrs a day on a Casper and smelling betwixt a mix of patchouli and a CHAZ turnip garden doesnt offer financial re-assurance.

OT: Bought some DIS today. Maybe these filth peddlers can groom my port back to prosperity. Though more likelihood I'll need a shower worse than the aforementioned.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
BlueTaze said:

Fade alert- Cramer warns growth stocks could see horror with CPI report tmrw.




We've officially bottomed. Time to buy!
Brewmaster
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AG
BlueTaze said:

Fade alert- Cramer warns growth stocks could see horror with CPI report tmrw.


VUG is almost at yearly lows, and you have to go back to summer of 2020 to see lower. Someone way better at this than me tweeted this ETF out and was questioning whether it had bottomed or not. If we rally obviously, growth could be a great buy.

Cramer bearish on it certainly adds to that theory too! #FadeCramer
ProgN
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Bob Knights Paper Hands said:

I think it'll bottom out at about the price of two Beanie Babies and a tulip bulb. I'd rather throw folding money at the ponies than buy bit coin, but I'm biased.


I think you're close on the price! Tulips didn't go to zero, but you could buy a house with one in 1617!

Frankly, it's just computer code. It's been allowed to grow as an asset class due to lax monetary policy which has heightened inequality. Young people taking chances on risk assets since they are so far behind the boomers at the same stage in life.

Crypto is a scam, IMO. My wife's uncle got me in some, but I exited it all about 10 months ago. 6 months too late sadly :-(.
I agree and never thought it was a true currency so it never interested me. About a year ago I was on my iPad at the local watering hole looking at charts and some young guys saw me and asked if I traded crypto. I told them I didn't because it had too much risk but they "educated" me on how I was an idiot with old thinking because they were making "bank".

If BTC drops to near 5k then I'll risk some money to see if I can capitalize on their arrogance and ignorance should it run again. I don't consider any crypto a serious play, I'm just looking to profit off of a wave should it happen.
ProgN
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M4 Benelli said:

Welp, atleast Brady has a lucrative broadcasting career he can fall back on. If I were TB I wouldn't trust my last PF Chang Fortune Cookie, let alone sizable wealth to the steerings of this sloven vegamatic. Cat's hair looks like he spent two hours arguing with a taser. Couple that with sleeping 4 hrs a day on a Casper and smelling betwixt a mix of patchouli and a CHAZ turnip garden doesnt offer financial re-assurance.

LMAO, your post is so poetic and funny AF. Blue parachute for you my friend.
Brewmaster
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M4 Benelli said:

Welp, atleast Brady has a lucrative broadcasting career he can fall back on. If I were TB I wouldn't trust my last PF Chang Fortune Cookie, let alone sizable wealth to the steerings of this sloven vegamatic. Cat's hair looks like he spent two hours arguing with a taser. Couple that with sleeping 4 hrs a day on a Casper and smelling betwixt a mix of patchouli and a CHAZ turnip garden doesnt offer financial re-assurance.

OT: Bought some DIS today. Maybe these filth peddlers can groom my port back to prosperity. Though more likelihood I'll need a shower worse than the aforementioned.



great stuff, lol. I literally almost hit my laptop screen with projectile beer when I started reading that part
BlueTaze
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Ag CPA
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AG


ETA, Damn, we posted this at the exact same time.
ProgN
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I'll put this in things that didn't age well. The kid has a good heart but there is a very good lesson for everyone to be had.

When you're on a roll, like 10+ trades in a row that you print money, don't get cocky and overconfident. Spoiler alert, you haven't figured it all out and the market will humble you. Ask anyone that's been in the market for decades and I'm confident that they'll tell you the same. Us olds still learn something everyday and refine our approach and strategies. We've all blown up our accounts more than once and we hope others avoid the landmines that we stepped on. Arrogance and overconfidence leads to risking more of your capital and it will blow up your account. When you feel you know what's going to happen so you push all in, think of this video. The kid went from nothing to a generous billionaire to now a bankrupt man with investors like TB and Blackrock suing his ass in less than a year.
FJ43
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Hmmmm……lotto 380s anyone?

Spoony Love
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AG
Yes please. But I will wait until later in the day.
Bird Poo
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M4 Benelli said:

Welp, atleast Brady has a lucrative broadcasting career he can fall back on. If I were TB I wouldn't trust my last PF Chang Fortune Cookie, let alone sizable wealth to the steerings of this sloven vegamatic. Cat's hair looks like he spent two hours arguing with a taser. Couple that with sleeping 4 hrs a day on a Casper and smelling betwixt a mix of patchouli and a CHAZ turnip garden doesnt offer financial re-assurance.

OT: Bought some DIS today. Maybe these filth peddlers can groom my port back to prosperity. Though more likelihood I'll need a shower worse than the aforementioned.

This is some fine writing. I love this thread.
BaylorSpineGuy
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I'll go ahead and share this here.

I'm not sure what it is, but I have only taken like 5-6 trades in the last 6 weeks and several of those were scalps.

I never felt confidence behind the last rally from Oct 13th and some of the people I listen to vs what I thought for myself didn't line up, so I even didn't time a short position well. I have been fairly busy most days which has limited how much I can trade and on the days I wasn't busy, the action was fairly choppy so I never got a clean direction.

I guess I'm trying to say I've almost been paralyzed. I lost $1100 on two trades (a small amt of my trading account im trying to learn with) on Sept 30th, and those two misses have almost handcuffed me from being able to trade at all. And I know what I did wrong on those trades. Twice earlier in the year I really set myself back by not cutting a couple losers and so have been extra cautious so I don't go backwards again.

It's almost for me like a case of the yips with trading. Im by no means an expert but over the last 2 yrs I do have a good sense of market direction and how to make a little scratch.

Im gonna have to get over this, but this market has been so tough to trade and I don't wanna give away my money, even at risk of making a little scratch.

Anyone else dealt with something like this and if so, how did u overcome?
irish pete ag06
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

I'll go ahead and share this here.

I'm not sure what it is, but I have only taken like 5-6 trades in the last 6 weeks and several of those were scalps.

I never felt confidence behind the last rally from Oct 13th and some of the people I listen to vs what I thought for myself didn't line up, so I even didn't time a short position well. I have been fairly busy most days which has limited how much I can trade and on the days I wasn't busy, the action was fairly choppy so I never got a clean direction.

I guess I'm trying to say I've almost been paralyzed. I lost $1100 on two trades (a small amt of my trading account im trying to learn with) on Sept 30th, and those two misses have almost handcuffed me from being able to trade at all. And I know what I did wrong on those trades. Twice earlier in the year I really set myself back by not cutting a couple losers and so have been extra cautious so I don't go backwards again.

It's almost for me like a case of the yips with trading. Im by no means an expert but over the last 2 yrs I do have a good sense of market direction and how to make a little scratch.

Im gonna have to get over this, but this market has been so tough to trade and I don't wanna give away my money, even at risk of making a little scratch.

Anyone else dealt with something like this and if so, how did u overcome?


I'm just an idiot but you may benefit from switching to the smaller ETFs like UPRO until you get your confidence back.
Bird Poo
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:



UPDATING October 10th post above:

The Mid-Term Election Year Buying Opportunity that I noted has occurred for the last 60 years (except twice in the cycle) I thought would occur in 2022 down to a S&P 3,400 level. I am stating 3,400 is not going to happen in 2022 and the market low is in. ............ The June 16th Closing Low of 3,666.77 and then the retests of that low on Sep 30th of 3585.62, the Oct 11th 3,588.84, the Oct 12th 3,577.03 and Oct 14th 3,583.07, all on a Closing basis have established the floor IMO. IMO, I believe any re-visit to the 3,575 to 3,675 area is a buying opportunity. With 3,400 no longer in my picture, it directs me to change the challenging of the S&P 500 ATH to the second half of 2023 versus "by June 2023" as noted in the post above.


I didn't trade during previous recessions due to my financial situation, but when energy inevitably spikes in the coming weeks/months and unemployment numbers start to climb, are you predicting we won't get to 3400? (I know you're not a fortune teller, but just curious if you are accounting for the coming recession everyone seems so confident will hit).

BTW, your XOM 110 calls made me about $3K a couple weeks ago!
ProgN
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We all have to some extent. Your post indicates that you're learning and evolving. Pain teaches the best lessons but losing $1,100 now is better than making the same mistake with 100K later. I've said this before but learning methods during a bear market will benefit you 10 fold in the future and keep you grounded. Anyone can soar in a bull market, but you're in a furnace now doc. It's trial by fire. You've come a long way, continue your path and don't get discouraged.
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