BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Futures in a nosedive early. If no support in 3920 range, we could find ourselves with a major gap down in the morning.

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Please.

Mrs FJs bday is Saturday and our 31st is Tuesday.

I'm broke. Need trading money.

The main thing I'm paying for lately is experience.

What's sad is I felt so clearly ready for this downturn in the market in general and even pretty well saw it coming, and I have just not traded it well at all. Haven't lost my ass but definitely haven't enlarged the account meaningfully.

Btw, I was reviewing my company's 401K stuff tonight and the different choices you could make for your account (binds, small cap, large cap, S&P, REIT's, emerging markets, etc.). The best return all year is a 3 month T bill (0% return).

Everything else is negative by 3% or more lol. Tough year. And no individual stocks to pick from and can't choose short side either.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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FJ43 said:

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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The main thing I'm paying for lately is experience.

What's sad is I felt so clearly ready for this downturn in the market in general and even pretty well saw it coming, and I have just not traded it well at all. Haven't lost my ass but definitely haven't enlarged the account meaningfully.

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Honest question and you know I respect your diligence to the craft. Why do you think this has occurred? Bias, TA, execution, disciplines, etc?

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Probably a mix of all of it. I also sometimes go days between even being able to put in trades. June and August for me were just beatdown months in the work side and I barely had a minute to even spot the markets. And I basically sat on the sidelines in July. Had a hard time to go long in the face of so much downside risk that I had a hard time being convicted about trading long.

My general TA is probably average to above average, but I've never been good at timing entries or exits. Have never felt great about that. And then I often will get faked out on false breakdowns or breakouts, even if I get the move right.

Feel I would benefit from watching someone trade it live one day. I know that's generally not possible but feel it would help me immensely.

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Appreciate all that. We've all been there at one time or another so stay the course.

I actually did live trading with someone this board a while back that wanted to watch just to show how I prepared and executed through that trading day. Was fun to do.

Possible trading (not investing) tip for you knowing your schedule can be tough. Do your homework on fewer instruments. Know them intimately. Make fewer trades but only ones with higher probability setups. Be patient for the setup to materialize. Execute with passion.

Trading is if this then that. Both ways. No hesitation. Yes there are other strategies and things that can be applied but it doesn't have to be complicated.

I'm doing exactly that at the moment given my schedule. Very few losing trades and if so they are managed risk.

I'd be happy to do that with you in the future. No way would I charge. This is a family on here and a very unique place.

Remember I'm a redneck. A little slow. Just love trading.

On not adding money....if you can't 'trade' with 1k then 1M won't matter.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Sincerely appreciate it. Exactly the way I see it about trading. I won't keep throwing money at it. Just grow what I've got. All my extra money right now is going toward a house I won't be able to afford due to skyrocketing interest rates next year.

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I blame interest rates on Prog's voting choices

I think something I need to do more of is sit on my hands and watch things happen vs jumping in a trade just because its coming close to a support/resistance or its getting near an indicator and its known to bounce off it.

I definitely will admit to overtrade and it is a big reason why I lose profits from the day/week.

Golf1 said:

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I think something I need to do more of is sit on my hands and watch things happen vs jumping in a trade just because its coming close to a support/resistance or its getting near an indicator and its known to bounce off it.

I definitely will admit to overtrade and it is a big reason why I lose profits from the day/week.

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Quick chart for you. 5 min chart but I do scalp on 1-2 min, 5 and 10 watching 2 min VIX trend.

If I was scalping today the Daily SRs and Model T of yesterday's range are my primary markers. Opening action combined with above are first scalps. Not ignoring the overall daily trend and volume.

There was a long for easy scalp and a short that required watching paint dry for scalping. The rest is choppy but doable if I was in front of a screen all day.

FJ43 said:

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I blame interest rates on Prog's voting choices

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/bank-of-america-launches-zero-down-mortgages-for-blacks-latinos-in-dallas/ar-AA11h89w

Quote:

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Bank of America has chosen Dallas and four other cities to pilot a new nationwide program aimed to help first-time homebuyers in Black and Latino communities.

The Community Affordable Loan Solution will offer home loans with no down payment or closing costs. The program's credit guidelines are based on factors such as timely rent, utility, phone and auto insurance payments, and it does not require mortgage insurance or a minimum credit score.

It will be available in African-American/Black and Hispanic/Latino communities, as defined by the U.S. Census, in Dallas, Charlotte, N.C., Detroit, Los Angeles and Miami

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Giving zero down mortgages is never a good idea regardless of race. I guess folks forgot about 2008.

ProgN said:

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/bank-of-america-launches-zero-down-mortgages-for-blacks-latinos-in-dallas/ar-AA11h89w

Quote:

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Bank of America has chosen Dallas and four other cities to pilot a new nationwide program aimed to help first-time homebuyers in Black and Latino communities.

The Community Affordable Loan Solution will offer home loans with no down payment or closing costs. The program's credit guidelines are based on factors such as timely rent, utility, phone and auto insurance payments, and it does not require mortgage insurance or a minimum credit score.

It will be available in African-American/Black and Hispanic/Latino communities, as defined by the U.S. Census, in Dallas, Charlotte, N.C., Detroit, Los Angeles and Miami

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Giving zero down mortgages is never a good idea regardless of race. I guess folks forgot about 2008.

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I thought the banking system was under strict scrutiny regarding home loans? In short, basically they couldnt do this sort of thing anymore. WTH?

Get ready for a collapse.

Note to BSG,....if you wait a few years you could likely buy one of the larger homes in Texas after the next collapse.

ProgN said:

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/bank-of-america-launches-zero-down-mortgages-for-blacks-latinos-in-dallas/ar-AA11h89w

Quote:

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Bank of America has chosen Dallas and four other cities to pilot a new nationwide program aimed to help first-time homebuyers in Black and Latino communities.

The Community Affordable Loan Solution will offer home loans with no down payment or closing costs. The program's credit guidelines are based on factors such as timely rent, utility, phone and auto insurance payments, and it does not require mortgage insurance or a minimum credit score.

It will be available in African-American/Black and Hispanic/Latino communities, as defined by the U.S. Census, in Dallas, Charlotte, N.C., Detroit, Los Angeles and Miami

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Giving zero down mortgages is never a good idea regardless of race. I guess folks forgot about 2008.

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How is this not discrimination by race? Will it be available to anyone in these "communities" and that's how they get around it? Will the bank let a white person who lives in or moves to those communities access this program?

This won't go poorly at all. In fact, I'd almost call this predatory. Then BOA is just going to hold these on their books since they aren't FHA? When the recession hits home foreclosures in these are going to be massive. They'll walk away like it's a rent house because they have no equity.

BlitzBrother said:

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Everything in place for the market to go down further - Said would get to 3950 minimum , now looks to retest prior bottom around 3600 - Market still overestimating the positive and positioning - Sold down couple weeks back , fully hedged , actually 10% short - Not stating what I think , saying what I am doing .

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Just remember though, bear market rallies will be fierce. Just 2 weeks ago everyone thought the lows were in, sentiment changes quickly. But we are in a downtrend still, and seasonality turns ugly soon. So you can be bearish, just be smart, sell the big rips, but don't get caught in them.

Buck Compton said:

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ProgN said:

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/bank-of-america-launches-zero-down-mortgages-for-blacks-latinos-in-dallas/ar-AA11h89w

Quote:

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Bank of America has chosen Dallas and four other cities to pilot a new nationwide program aimed to help first-time homebuyers in Black and Latino communities.

The Community Affordable Loan Solution will offer home loans with no down payment or closing costs. The program's credit guidelines are based on factors such as timely rent, utility, phone and auto insurance payments, and it does not require mortgage insurance or a minimum credit score.

It will be available in African-American/Black and Hispanic/Latino communities, as defined by the U.S. Census, in Dallas, Charlotte, N.C., Detroit, Los Angeles and Miami

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Giving zero down mortgages is never a good idea regardless of race. I guess folks forgot about 2008.

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How is this not discrimination by race? Will it be available to anyone in these "communities" and that's how they get around it? Will the bank let a white person who lives in or moves to those communities access this program?

This won't go poorly at all. In fact, I'd almost call this predatory. Then BOA is just going to hold these on their books since they aren't FHA? When the recession hits home foreclosures in these are going to be massive. They'll walk away like it's a rent house because they have no equity.

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Oh, I never claimed it wasn't discriminatory and blatantly unconstitutional because it is. However that old document no longer has any meaning to half the country.

I foresaw the path we're on and my son is 1/4 Hispanic and I've checked that he's Hispanic on every form since his birth because I fear he will be denied opportunities due to his race. It's sad what the world has become.

Just wanna say the last page and a half of this thread is what makes it great. Real discussion and real feedback sprinkled with encouraging words. Really glad I found this little corner of the internet.

re: Adam Set - the faster the market drops without consolidation, the more likely a spring back is.

Lot's of stuff breaking in the energy markets. I don't post often, but I have been alerting this board that the Supply/Demand (S&D) published by the DOE/EIA every week has been jacked up for months, especially when you add in that EIA didn't publish 2 reports in July (first time ever to not publish and did it 2X). Stuff is getting more vocal and more folks are noticing. (BSG I know you were not real happy about the NatGas reversal or something to that regard, frankly I'm glad you didn't get into the trade. Right now, if you aren't Long, forget it. All the numbers are BS. Going short in this environment is not the "chance" you want to take,...or is it?) I can write/type for days but by the time all this is over, I believe it's going to take Saudi, Israel and Putin to save America from Brandon...ironic. I copied & pasted some info below from another site. This info is spot on.

"There are quite a few analysts speaking out. You may have seen the article released 4 hrs ago...."Is Dodgy Demand Data Driving Oil Prices Lower?". The article has some old quotes from a Piper Sandler analyst and Valero's CEO that were in the author's earlier article about "dodgy data". The first dodgy data article was written shortly after EIA June and July "suspect inventory reports" were released. Bullet point #3 in todays article is spot on:

- Open interest in crude futures and options contracts has fallen to a seven-year low.

- OPEC ministers and some analysts believe that the veracity of oil market price signals have been compromised.

- Some pundits are even accusing the Biden administration of fabricating low gas demand data in a bid to hammer oil prices."

WTI is being manipulated. In most Futures markets, when the Cash physical market has lost connection to the Futures market a Large Commercial will will send notice to take delivery on a Futures Long. Basically, if Futures and Cash are so disconnected, the Commercial is saying, "Hey Futures!, if it's so cheap, I'll take all you got. Give it to me, because I can't source it as cheaply in the cash market". Apparently, WTI doesn't have a Large Commercial willing to take a stand to bring the markets back in sync. Open Interest is at a 7 year low as noted above. That's indicating traders know it's a BS manipulation by someone(s).

Saudi from what I gather is not a paper player, but they hold the keys today. Saudi just cuts production back and reports it. Tighten the market up on physical and drive up the cash price and Futures be damned. <This is happening now. Saudi has noted the Cash and Futures disconnect last week. Thereafter, WTI & Brent moved up the next day. (Amazing how that happens) However, WTI & Brent have come back down. Futures do not represent the reality today based on the S&D. EIA shows a draw again this week after the SPR release is removed. If you want to short NatGas or Crude, it's your call. I wouldn't, no matter what your gut or judgement is telling you. This is more rigged than normal. Someone is going to break and squeal or Saudi will just turn the crude valve closer to off. Putin is going to turn off the NatGas valve to Germany this winter. Putin is flaring unsold gas now but they cant sustain production without parts and sanctions are keeping parts out. Either way for Putin, no production or turning off the valve, German's are going to get cold and just maybe German's decide Green Energy really is a hoax.

Energy Futures and Indices indicate one thing; however, the S&D is the bible. Trade accordingly.

And,...in my former profession we always told a Short in trying contractual times, "He who sells what isn't hissin, either buys it in or goes to prison". Nasty stuff when not only your tit is in the ringer but somehow your ass manages to be in there too.

GLTA & PTLA